Date Issued – 27th November 2024

Preview

Asian markets were mixed Wednesday as Wall Street hit record highs despite President-elect Trump’s tariff threats. The euro’s slide against the dollar sparks concerns over global market volatility, while OpenAI employees prepare to sell $1.5 billion in shares to SoftBank. Apple lags behind in the 2024 smartphone market rebound, with Android rivals capturing most of the growth. Electric vehicles face headwinds in the U.S. and Europe despite China’s booming EV market, driven by government subsidies and affordable models. Investors should monitor market-specific risks, government policies, and the impact of AI-driven innovations on consumer demand.

Global Markets Update: Asian Shares Mixed Amid Trade Uncertainty

Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday as Wall Street hit record highs despite President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Japan’s Nikkei fell nearly 1% due to a stronger yen, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.6%, led by Samsung’s management reshuffle and a 3.3% stock decline. In contrast, Chinese markets gained, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5%, while Taiwan and Bangkok markets posted losses.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a new record of 6,021.63, driven by Big Tech, with Amazon and Microsoft leading gains. However, Trump’s tariff rhetoric sparked concerns over inflation, higher consumer costs, and potential retaliatory moves from key trade partners. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil edged up to $68.89 per barrel, and the dollar weakened slightly against the yen and euro.

Investment Insight: Market resilience in the face of trade tensions highlights investor confidence in Big Tech and U.S. economic fundamentals. However, Trump’s tariff threats could disrupt supply chains, pressure corporate profits, and exacerbate inflation risks, warranting caution for sectors reliant on global trade.

OpenAI Employees to Sell $1.5 Billion in Shares to SoftBank

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is allowing employees to sell $1.5 billion worth of shares to Japan’s SoftBank Group in a tender offer reported by CNBC. This follows OpenAI’s recent $6.6 billion funding round, which valued the Microsoft-backed firm at $157 billion. SoftBank, having already invested $500 million in October, is expanding its stake under the leadership of CEO Masayoshi Son. The tender offer, closing this week, offers current and former employees the opportunity to cash out their shares.

Investment Insight: SoftBank’s deepening investment in OpenAI underscores confidence in AI’s growth trajectory. Investors should watch for how this capital infusion supports OpenAI’s scaling efforts and how it impacts SoftBank’s broader AI strategy amid intensifying competition in the sector.

Euro’s Slide Sparks Concerns Over Global Market Volatility

The euro is down 3.8% against the dollar this month, nearing the critical $1 mark, driven by eurozone economic weakness, escalating geopolitical tensions, and proposed U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. Analysts warn a further drop could trigger market instability, similar to the August turmoil caused by yen-dollar swings. The euro-dollar pair, the world’s most traded, impacts multinational earnings and global trade dynamics, with spillovers likely to affect currencies in trade-sensitive nations like China and South Korea. Diverging views on the euro’s future underscore market uncertainty, with some forecasting a drop to $0.99 in 2025, while others see a rebound to $1.16.

Investment Insight: Currency volatility poses risks for multinational firms and export-reliant economies. Investors should consider hedging strategies to mitigate exposure to unpredictable euro-dollar swings, while monitoring cross-asset correlations that could amplify market instability.

Apple Lags Behind in 2024 Smartphone Market Rebound

The global smartphone market grew 6.2% in 2024, shipping 1.24 billion units after years of decline, but Apple saw only a marginal 0.4% increase in iPhone shipments, according to IDC. Android-based competitors captured most of the rebound, particularly in China and emerging markets, with affordable devices driving demand. While Apple continues to dominate profits with an average selling price above $1,000, rivals like Xiaomi and Huawei are pushing AI-driven innovations and in-house chip development to gain market share. IDC notes that AI enhancements across brands have yet to spark significant consumer upgrades, as global smartphone shipments remain below pre-pandemic levels.

Investment Insight: Apple’s soft volume growth underscores its reliance on premium pricing rather than unit expansion, while Android rivals capitalize on affordability and regional strategies. Investors should monitor Apple’s efforts to penetrate lower-tier markets and the broader impact of AI-driven features on future upgrade cycles.

Market price: Apple Inc. (AAPL): USD 235.06

Electric Vehicles Face Headwinds in the U.S. and Europe Despite China Boom

While global EV sales are growing, the U.S. and Europe are struggling to match China’s momentum. Concerns over range, charging infrastructure, and high costs are slowing adoption in Western markets, where EV sales remain below climate target levels. China, in contrast, leads with 60% of global EV sales, driven by government subsidies, price cuts, and rising demand for affordable models. U.S. buyers face uncertainty over tax credits as President-elect Trump signals reduced EV support, and Europe grapples with policy rollbacks and slowed growth. Still, automakers remain committed to electrification, betting on long-term market transformation.

Investment Insight: EV adoption disparities signal market-specific risks and opportunities. Watch for Chinese automakers gaining global traction with low-cost models, while Western EV makers face challenges in scaling affordability and infrastructure. Long-term investors should monitor government policies and tax credit shifts that could influence demand trajectories.

Market Price: Tesla Inc. (TSLA): USD 338.23

Conclusion

The global markets face a mix of opportunities and challenges as trade tensions, currency volatility, and technological disruptions shape investor sentiment. While Big Tech drives U.S. market resilience, the euro’s slide and Trump’s tariff threats warrant caution. OpenAI’s share sale to SoftBank highlights the growing interest in AI, even as smartphone makers grapple with varying regional demand. The EV market’s uneven growth across China, the U.S., and Europe underscores the importance of government policies and affordability in driving adoption. As investors navigate these complex dynamics, a strategic approach to risk management and long-term value creation is crucial.

Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $400 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.