
Date Issued – 30th April 2025
Preview
Markets face a pivotal week as mega-cap tech earnings, including Microsoft and Meta, take center stage amid ongoing tariff-driven uncertainty. President Trump’s easing of auto tariffs offers temporary relief, but broader trade policies continue to weigh on economic growth, with Q1 GDP and inflation data expected to guide Federal Reserve decisions. Oil is set for a historic 15% monthly decline as trade tensions and OPEC+ supply increases pressure prices. In corporate updates, Royal Caribbean raised its profit outlook, signaling resilience in the cruise sector, while U.S. construction job openings hit record lows due to rising material costs from tariffs. Meanwhile, Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin plan a missile facility in Germany, highlighting Europe’s push for defense self-reliance as geopolitical tensions persist.
Markets Brace for Tech Earnings Amid Trade Policy Shifts
U.S. stock futures edged lower Wednesday as investors prepared for a critical week of mega-cap tech earnings and key economic data releases. Microsoft and Meta Platforms headline the earnings roster, with markets keen on updates regarding AI investments and tariff impacts. Meanwhile, President Trump eased auto tariffs, offering temporary relief to carmakers amid escalating trade policies. Economic data, including Q1 GDP and inflation metrics, may provide clarity on the broader impact of tariffs and guide Federal Reserve policy. Oil prices extended losses, with Brent crude down 1.5%, reflecting trade tensions and weak Chinese manufacturing data.
Investment Insight: Investors should monitor tech earnings for insights into AI spending and sector resilience amid tariff uncertainties. Slowing GDP and falling oil prices signal potential headwinds for growth-oriented assets, emphasizing the need for balanced exposure to defensive sectors and cash-flow-generating equities.
Construction Job Openings Fall Amid Tariff Pressures
The U.S. construction sector is showing signs of a slowdown, with job openings declining by 38,000 in March and down 90,000 year-over-year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Hiring in the sector also hit a record low, with only 3.6% of industrywide jobs filled. Analysts point to President Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber, which have raised costs and caused developers to delay new projects. Broader economic uncertainty and rising material expenses are expected to further dampen labor demand in the sector.
Investment Insight: Rising input costs and slowing hiring signal potential challenges for construction-related equities and materials suppliers. Investors should consider reducing exposure to cyclical construction stocks and prioritizing companies with diversified revenue streams or limited reliance on tariff-sensitive materials.
Royal Caribbean Raises Profit Forecast Despite Sector Challenges
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) defied market expectations by raising its full-year profit forecast to $14.55–$15.55 per share, surpassing analyst estimates of $14.78. This optimism stems from a record-breaking “WAVE season,” putting the company in a robust booking position for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. Despite the upbeat outlook, RCL shares reversed an initial 3% gain to close down 2.6%, dragging peers Carnival Corp (CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) lower ahead of their earnings. Travel stocks remain pressured by macroeconomic uncertainty, with other industry players like American Airlines pulling guidance due to weakening domestic demand.
Investment Insight: Royal Caribbean’s strong forecast highlights resilience in the cruise industry amid broader travel sector headwinds. Investors may find value in cruise line stocks, particularly those with strong forward bookings and pricing power, as they outperform air carriers facing demand softness. Diversifying within travel-related holdings could balance risks tied to broader economic uncertainty.

Oil Faces Historic Monthly Decline Amid Trade War and Supply Glut
Brent crude is on track for a historic 15% drop in April, marking its worst monthly performance since trading began in 1988, while West Texas Intermediate hovers in the upper $50s. Weakened by U.S.-China trade tensions, slowing economic growth, and OPEC+ supply increases, the market outlook remains bearish. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, and Chinese factory activity slumped to its lowest level since 2023, signaling reduced energy demand. OPEC+ is expected to further loosen production curbs in May, with analysts warning of a potential supply glut as non-cartel nations ramp up output.
Investment Insight: Oil’s steep selloff highlights vulnerabilities tied to geopolitical risks and supply-demand imbalances. Investors should approach energy stocks cautiously, favoring companies with low breakeven costs and diversified revenue streams. Hedging against further downside in crude prices may also be prudent as uncertainties around OPEC+ policies and global trade persist.
Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin Partner to Boost European Missile Production
Rheinmetall (ETR:RHMG) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) announced plans to establish a missile and rocket manufacturing center in Germany, expanding their strategic partnership. Led by Rheinmetall, the facility will produce and distribute advanced munitions across Europe, aiming to enhance the continent’s defense self-reliance amid ongoing support for Ukraine and NATO commitments. This initiative underscores Europe’s push to reduce reliance on U.S. weaponry and replenish military stockpiles. The agreement is pending U.S. and German government approvals but highlights significant anticipated demand in Europe’s defense sector.
Investment Insight: The collaboration positions Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to capitalize on rising European defense spending. Investors may find opportunities in defense stocks as geopolitical tensions sustain demand for advanced weaponry. Rheinmetall, with its regional expertise, could see substantial growth as Europe prioritizes local production capabilities.
Conclusion
This week underscores the delicate balance markets face between optimism in select sectors and mounting macroeconomic challenges. While strong earnings from Royal Caribbean and promising developments in European defense signal resilience, headwinds from trade tensions, slowing growth, and volatile oil prices weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Key data on GDP and inflation will provide critical insights into the broader economic trajectory, while tech earnings could shape market direction amid tariff uncertainties. As geopolitical and economic pressures persist, a cautious and diversified investment approach remains essential to navigate the evolving landscape.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- April 30th, 2025: EU GDP, US GDP
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.