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Global markets are treading cautiously as investors digest mixed signals from trade diplomacy and economic data. US futures slipped early Thursday, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq contracts all lower, as optimism over US-China tariff rollbacks was tempered by investor anticipation of fresh inflation and retail sales figures. Japanese investors extended their foreign equity buying streak, signaling confidence in global risk assets despite lingering trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates through September, delaying further tightening in response to Trump’s tariff moves. In corporate news, Boeing shares edged higher after securing a record $96 billion jet deal with Qatar during Trump’s Middle East tour, while Supermicro stock surged 40% this week on a $20 billion AI partnership and bullish technical signals. As the week progresses, market participants will be closely watching economic prints and geopolitical developments for clarity on the direction of monetary policy and global growth.

Futures Dip as US-China Trade Progress Fails to Soothe Market Nerves

US equity futures edged lower Thursday as markets digested the tentative progress in US-China trade talks and braced for fresh inflation and retail data. Dow futures (YM=F) fell 0.59%, S&P 500 futures (ES=F) declined 0.46%, and Nasdaq 100 contracts (NQ=F) slipped 0.50%. The pullback follows a tech-led rally on Wednesday, with Nvidia driving gains amid optimism over AI-related spending and renewed Middle East tech partnerships. Despite easing tariff tensions earlier in the week, investors remain cautious ahead of the April Producer Price Index and retail sales data, which may gauge the resilience of consumer demand under evolving trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Cisco and CoreWeave offered contrasting AI-driven earnings outlooks, reinforcing the uneven terrain in tech valuations.

Investment Insight: Recent volatility underscores the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments and inflation data. While AI remains a structural growth driver—evident in Cisco’s upgraded forecast—the broader macro picture, including trade policy swings and inflation metrics, continues to steer sentiment. Investors should maintain selective exposure to AI and tech, while watching for signals in consumer data and producer pricing that could inform the Fed’s rate trajectory and broader equity positioning.

Japanese Investors Sustain Global Equity Push Amid Trade Truce Optimism

Japanese investors extended their foreign equity buying streak to an eighth consecutive week, buoyed by easing global trade tensions and renewed optimism over U.S. tariff policy. Net purchases of overseas stocks totaled ¥250.8 billion ($1.72 billion) for the week ended May 10, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance—moderating from the previous week’s ¥2.55 trillion but contributing to a record-setting ¥8.2 trillion in net foreign equity acquisitions year-to-date, the highest since comparable data began in 2005. The shift follows significant tariff rollbacks by both the U.S. and China and a new U.S.-UK trade pact, which have helped lift the MSCI World Index nearly 21% from its April low. Japanese investors also returned to long-term overseas bonds with ¥1.92 trillion in net inflows, reversing prior outflows, while foreign capital continued to flow into Japanese stocks for a sixth straight week.

Investment Insight: The sharp appetite for foreign risk assets among Japanese investors signals growing conviction in a soft-landing scenario for global growth amid de-escalating trade tensions. The sustained demand for overseas equities and bonds suggests a strategic pivot toward yield and diversification as domestic returns remain constrained. Investors should monitor Japanese flows as a bellwether for confidence in global markets, particularly as cross-border capital reallocations may accelerate if inflation data and trade diplomacy continue to stabilize.

Boeing Lands Record $96 Billion Qatar Order Amid Trump’s Gulf Trade Push

Boeing secured its largest-ever widebody aircraft order as Qatar Airways committed to purchasing up to 210 jets in a $96 billion deal announced during President Trump’s diplomatic visit to Doha. The agreement includes firm orders for 130 Dreamliners and 30 777-9s, with options for an additional 50 aircraft. The deal marks a significant boost for Boeing, which has faced production setbacks, labor disruptions, and reputational damage following last year’s 737 Max incident. The broader U.S.-Qatar economic package totals $243 billion, encompassing aerospace, defense, and technology cooperation. Boeing shares rose 0.64% on the news, though investors remain mindful that large-scale aircraft orders are often subject to change. The announcement also highlights the Trump administration’s strategy of leveraging high-profile corporate deals to underpin its evolving trade diplomacy.

Investment Insight: The Qatar order signals a turning point for Boeing’s commercial recovery and underscores the strategic role of state-backed airline demand in stabilizing aerospace supply chains. While political optics may cloud the narrative, the scale of the deal positions Boeing to regain delivery momentum and improve cash flow visibility. Investors should weigh the long-term value of this backlog against ongoing geopolitical risks and supply-side constraints, particularly as the administration uses aircraft orders as trade levers in a broader economic realignment.

Market price: Boeing Co (BA): USD 204.72

BOJ Seen Holding Rates Through September as Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

The Bank of Japan is expected to pause its tightening cycle through the third quarter amid rising uncertainty from U.S. trade policy, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A resounding 95% of respondents forecast no rate change at the BOJ’s June meeting, while 67% now see borrowing costs remaining at 0.50% into September—nearly double the share from April. Despite the pause, just over half of economists still expect at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end. The shift reflects growing concern over the economic drag from President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs, which include a looming 24% levy on Japanese exports starting in July. BOJ officials, including Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, have maintained a cautiously optimistic tone, pointing to continued wage growth and inflation momentum, though the pace of rate normalization may slow as global trade dynamics evolve.

Investment Insight: The BOJ’s expected hold underscores how geopolitical risk is increasingly shaping monetary strategy. With Japanese policymakers prioritizing stability amid external shocks, investors should temper expectations for near-term rate hikes. The yen’s trajectory, capital flows, and equity valuations may remain sensitive to trade negotiations and U.S. tariff enforcement. For fixed income investors, the extended pause could support JGB demand, while equity investors may focus on domestic demand resilience as a buffer against export-driven volatility.