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Markets opened June on a cautious note following a strong May rally, with U.S. equity futures slipping as investors weigh escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and a critical week of economic data. Swiss GDP surprised to the upside, driven by pre-tariff export front-loading to the U.S., while Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to raise oil output again in August amid resilient demand. Gold surged on haven flows as trade friction intensified, aided by a weaker dollar and dovish Fed commentary. Bitcoin stabilized near $105,000 after a weekend drop tied to risk-off sentiment and institutional outflows. As geopolitical risk and tariff uncertainty grow, investors are recalibrating exposure across commodities, crypto, and equities ahead of key macro catalysts.

Wall Street Pauses After May Rally Amid Trade Tensions and Data Watch

US equity futures slipped early Monday as markets entered June with caution following a robust May rally. Futures tied to the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell between 0.5% and 0.7%, signaling a tentative open after the S&P posted its strongest May in over three decades. Tech stocks, buoyed by AI enthusiasm and steady economic indicators, drove the gains last month, with the Nasdaq up 9%. However, renewed trade uncertainty — including legal back-and-forth over Trump-era tariffs and escalating rhetoric with China — has reintroduced volatility. Investors are also bracing for key economic data this week, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy heading into the summer.

Investment Insight: After a historically strong May, markets may face near-term consolidation as geopolitical tensions and policy ambiguity resurface. Investors should watch labor data closely for signs of economic resilience or softness, which could recalibrate rate expectations. With earnings season winding down, positioning around macro catalysts may drive the next leg of equity moves — suggesting a more selective, fundamentals-driven approach is warranted.

Swiss GDP Accelerates as Exporters Race Against U.S. Tariff Clock

Switzerland’s economy expanded by 0.8% in Q1 2025, outperforming expectations as firms rushed to front-load shipments ahead of newly imposed U.S. tariffs. The quarterly growth, adjusted for major sporting events, exceeded both the previous quarter’s 0.6% and the long-term average of 0.4%. A sharp 17.4% jump in exports to the U.S. — far outpacing the 3.6% growth in overall exports — was a key driver, underscoring how policy uncertainty is reshaping global trade flows. The acceleration came just before President Trump’s administration enacted a 31% tariff on Swiss goods in April, a figure since dialed back to 10% pending further negotiations.

Investment Insight: The stronger-than-expected Swiss GDP print highlights how front-loaded trade activity can create short-term tailwinds in export-driven economies amid tariff uncertainty. Investors should be mindful that such gains may reverse as temporary demand fades and trade policies solidify. For now, export-heavy sectors may benefit, but the outlook hinges on the durability of U.S.-Swiss negotiations and the broader trajectory of global trade tensions.

Goldman Projects Modest OPEC+ Output Hike Amid Resilient Demand

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to raise oil production by 0.41 million barrels per day in August, marking a third consecutive monthly increase as the group seeks to reclaim market share and enforce internal discipline. The bank cited firm spot market fundamentals, stronger-than-expected global activity data, and seasonal demand tailwinds as justification for continued output hikes. Oil prices edged higher in early Asian trading, reflecting market alignment with OPEC+’s July production increase. Goldman anticipates production will plateau from September, with rising non-OPEC supply and a projected slowdown in global growth rebalancing the market. Despite the output increases, Goldman maintained a cautious price outlook, forecasting Brent at $60 and WTI at $56 for the rest of 2025.

Investment Insight: OPEC+’s measured production increases reflect a strategic pivot toward market normalization rather than aggressive price targeting. While short-term fundamentals support higher output, investors should monitor the ramp-up in non-OPEC supply and potential demand softening later in 2025. Energy sector allocations may benefit from tactical positioning around summer demand strength, but longer-term caution is warranted amid projected surpluses and subdued price forecasts.