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BP shares jumped after a report of early-stage takeover talks with Shell, though Shell firmly denied any negotiations. Nvidia surged to a new record, reclaiming its spot as the world’s most valuable company despite China-related export headwinds. The dollar weakened after Trump hinted at replacing Fed Chair Powell by October, increasing expectations for earlier rate cuts. Coinbase hit a 52-week high as analysts dubbed it the “Amazon of crypto.” Finally, J.P. Morgan launched its largest-ever active ETF, anchored by a $2B client investment – signaling a shift in strategy as active management returns to the spotlight.

BP Shares Jump on Takeover Speculation by Shell

BP shares surged over 10% intraday following a Wall Street Journal report that Shell was in early talks to acquire BP – a move that, if confirmed, would mark the largest energy sector deal since Exxon-Mobil’s 1990s merger. However, Shell swiftly denied any ongoing discussions, calling the story “market speculation.” BP shares settled up 1.64% by market close. Analysts say BP’s recent underperformance and shift back toward oil and gas have made it a plausible target, especially after activist investor Elliott Management disclosed a 5% stake. There’s also talk of a possible breakup and sale in parts rather than a full acquisition.

Investment Insight:

The sharp price movement on speculation highlights the fragility of market sentiment around legacy energy giants undergoing strategic shifts. Even though Shell denied the deal, the very plausibility of such M&A suggests continued consolidation pressure in the oil sector. Investors should monitor activist influence on BP’s strategy and potential divestitures, which could unlock value even without a formal takeover. The speculative premium on BP stock may persist short-term, but long-term positioning depends on execution of its reset strategy.

Nvidia Hits Record High, Reclaims Market Cap Crown

Nvidia shares surged over 4% on Wednesday, closing at an all-time high of $154.31 and reclaiming the title of the world’s most valuable company with a market cap of $3.77 trillion, edging out Microsoft. Despite the company being effectively shut out of the $50 billion Chinese market due to U.S. export controls, investor confidence remains strong. The company’s AI leadership, driven by dominant GPU performance in data centers, continues to power revenue. Nvidia reported 69% YoY revenue growth in May, with expectations of a 53% rise to $200 billion for the full year. CEO Jensen Huang reiterated AI and robotics as Nvidia’s twin growth pillars.

Investment Insight:

Nvidia’s resilience, despite losing access to China and absorbing a $4.5 billion write-off, underscores how deeply entrenched it is in the global AI supply chain. Investors appear willing to overlook geopolitical risk in favor of long-term AI dominance. With AI infrastructure demand still growing and minimal viable competition on the horizon, Nvidia’s valuation reflects more than just earnings – it reflects monopoly-like influence in a megatrend. Near-term volatility may come from regulatory or geopolitical news, but the long-term thesis remains strong if execution in data center and robotics verticals continues.

Dollar Drops as Trump Eyes Fed Chair Replacement Before Election

The U.S. dollar fell to a 3-year low following a report from The Wall Street Journal that President Trump may replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by September or October, well ahead of Powell’s term ending in May 2026. Bloomberg’s dollar index fell 0.4% Thursday and is now down over 8% in 2025. Markets are interpreting Trump’s move as a signal for earlier and more aggressive rate cuts, with traders now pricing in 66 basis points of easing by year-end, up from 51bps just last week. The greenback weakened broadly, with Asian and emerging market currencies gaining. Trump’s criticisms of the Fed’s hawkish stance and rising U.S. debt are adding pressure. Candidates floated as Powell’s successors include Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.

Investment Insight:

This development introduces a rare blend of political and monetary risk. A potential leadership change at the Fed – especially under pressure from a president seeking looser policy – could undermine the central bank’s credibility and accelerate dollar depreciation. Traders now see increased odds for a July or September rate cut. For investors, this suggests near-term tailwinds for gold, non-dollar assets and EM currencies. However, markets should also brace for volatility if Trump escalates rhetoric or names a controversial successor. Long-term implications could include steeper yield curve shifts and inflation risk repricing if Fed independence is perceived to be under threat.