Date Issued – 30th June 2025
Preview
Today’s headlines point to opposing forces shaping investor sentiment
China’s manufacturing PMI remains in contraction despite fiscal stimulus and trade progress with the U.S. – signaling persistent structural challenges. Oil pulls back as ceasefires and OPEC+ supply dampen the risk premium, shifting energy sentiment lower. Meanwhile, fresh AI optimism pushes AMD higher, backed by robust fundamentals and strong forward guidance. Robinhood doubles down on crypto futures with micro contracts for BTC, SOL and XRP – signaling retail appetite remains very much alive. We explore how to navigate this mixed macro landscape with clarity and conviction.
China PMI signals 3rd straight month of contraction
China’s official manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.7 in June, marking the third consecutive month in contraction territory. While production and new orders showed mild improvement, employment and inventories continued to decline. The non-manufacturing PMI also edged up to 50.5, lifted by strong construction activity. Despite Beijing’s fiscal stimulus and easing trade tensions with the U.S., deflation and a prolonged price war continue to pressure industrial profitability. Economists remain cautious, warning that weaker exports and fading government support could drag growth in the second half.
Investment Insight:
Short-term optimism around China’s industrial rebound is tempered by structural headwinds. The modest PMI uptick offers relief to equity markets – as reflected in the CSI 300’s rise – but deeper issues like falling prices, weak employment and soft consumer demand persist. Exporters with U.S. exposure may benefit from eased tariffs, yet deflationary trends and industrial margin pressure call for selective exposure. Watch Chinese construction-linked equities for short-term momentum, while maintaining caution on broader manufacturing plays.
Oil drops as OPEC+ eyes more supply in August
Oil prices slipped Monday, with Brent futures falling to $67.65 and WTI to $65.16, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and expectations rose for another OPEC+ output hike in August. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel erased much of the risk premium that had lifted prices earlier in June. Meanwhile, sources say OPEC+ plans a fifth consecutive monthly supply increase, adding 411,000 barrels per day. Weaker demand from China and broad uncertainty about global economic growth are also capping price recovery, even as U.S. rig counts fall to their lowest level since 2021.
Investment Insight:
The oil market’s sharp reversion underscores its vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and demand uncertainty. While cooling Middle East tensions and rising OPEC+ output add bearish weight, the longer-term view hinges on China’s industrial rebound and U.S. growth signals. Investors should monitor July 6’s OPEC+ meeting for clarity on supply dynamics. Short-term traders may find opportunity in oil-linked ETFs or energy sector equities sensitive to output guidance, while longer-term positions require caution amid slowing global industrial demand and fragile sentiment in commodities.
AMD Rides AI Surge Toward $175 Price Target
AMD stock is gaining strong momentum, rising 19% year-to-date, as investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence fuels growth expectations. Analysts highlight AMD’s 30% forward EPS growth rate and its central role in powering AI infrastructure through CPUs and GPUs. Despite trading at a higher P/E than industry peers, the company’s AI-driven expansion and strategic partnerships – including with Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN – position it for further upside. Risks tied to Taiwan and U.S.-China tensions remain, but management’s diversification and robust cash flow (~$3B) reinforce long-term confidence. Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy, with a $132.17 average target, below some bullish forecasts of $175.
Investment Insight:
AMD is a cornerstone in the AI arms race and remains well-placed to benefit from the sector’s explosive capital inflows. Short-term, bullish sentiment is supported by earnings growth, buybacks and Fed policy expectations. Long-term, AMD’s diversification outside Asia and supply chain hedges (via TSMC’s U.S. expansion) reduce geopolitical risks. Investors seeking high-growth tech exposure may consider AMD a strategic hold or buy on dips, with awareness that current valuations price in optimism. Watch closely for Fed decisions and AI infrastructure capex trends, which could propel – or cap – further upside.
Robinhood Debuts Micro Crypto Futures in U.S.
Robinhood has launched micro futures contracts for Bitcoin, Solana and XRP in the U.S., broadening its crypto offering to nearly 26 million funded accounts. These micro contracts allow traders to speculate or hedge with less capital compared to standard futures. The rollout expands a suite that began with BTC and ETH futures in January and follows Robinhood’s $200M Bitstamp acquisition and $179M WonderFi deal. According to Robinhood, crypto notional volumes hit $11.7B in May – up 36% from April and 65% year-over-year – highlighting growing demand for accessible crypto trading products.
Investment Insight:
Robinhood’s push into micro crypto futures reflects a broader shift to attract more retail and semi-pro traders into derivatives markets. With smaller entry barriers, these instruments may increase platform engagement and trading volume – fueling fee revenue. The recent Bitstamp and WonderFi acquisitions point to a long-term bet on crypto infrastructure. For investors, HOOD is positioning itself as a fintech gateway to crypto markets. However, the rising regulatory scrutiny and crypto’s volatility still pose headwinds. Keep an eye on user growth, trading activity and the firm’s international expansion for sustained upside.
Conclusion:
The week opens with a mix of caution and conviction. China’s economy shows signs of stabilization, but real momentum is still elusive. Commodities like oil appear unanchored, reacting more to headlines than fundamentals. In contrast, tech – and particularly AI – continues to build momentum, with AMD and Robinhood capitalizing on secular tailwinds.
Upcoming Dates to Watch:
- July 4th: Senate vote on Republican + debt ceiling bill
- July 8th: China Non-Manufacturing PMI
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer:Â This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
