Key Points

• Asia Markets Mixed as U.S.-China Talks Begin; Samsung Surges on Tesla Deal: Asia-Pacific equities ended mixed as markets awaited clarity from U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm, while Samsung soared over 6% on a $16.5B semiconductor supply deal with Tesla.
• UBS: Trump’s Copper Tariff Threat May Drive U.S. Prices Higher Amid Tight Global Supply: UBS projects a rise in domestic copper prices if Trump’s proposed 50% import tariff is enacted, citing limited U.S. smelting capacity and persistent global supply constraints.
• European Equities Climb as U.S.-EU Trade Pact Calms Tariff Fears; Heineken, Crude Advance: European indices rallied after a U.S.-EU trade agreement eased tariff tensions, with Heineken reporting strong growth in emerging markets and oil prices rising on improved trade sentiment.
• U.S. Pauses Tech Export Controls to China Amid Push for Trade Deal and Xi Meeting: Washington suspended tech export restrictions to China to support trade negotiations and a possible Trump-Xi summit, drawing backlash from security experts concerned about AI risks.

Asia Markets Mixed as U.S.-China Talks Begin; Samsung Surges on Tesla Deal

Asia-Pacific markets closed mixed Monday as investors awaited clarity from U.S.-China trade talks beginning in Stockholm, with expectations for a truce extension and discussions spanning broader geopolitical issues. Samsung Electronics surged over 6% to a 10-month high after securing a $16.5 billion semiconductor deal with Tesla, lifting South Korea’s Kospi.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese and Indonesian equities extended their rallies to fresh highs, driven by strong gains in utilities and real estate. In Hong Kong, CK Hutchison shares rebounded after signaling interest in bringing a Chinese strategic investor into its $22.8 billion port deal amid geopolitical sensitivities.

UBS: Trump’s Copper Tariff Threat May Drive U.S. Prices Higher Amid Tight Global Supply

UBS analysts warned that President Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on copper imports, set for potential implementation on August 1, could significantly lift domestic prices. While the U.S. is expected to remain a net importer due to limited smelting capacity and weak investment in new production, the report notes that global supply constraints are already underpinning bullish price dynamics.

UBS suggests manufacturers may absorb or pass on higher costs given copper’s limited substitutes, though key questions remain around the scope and enforcement of the proposed tariffs.

European Equities Climb as U.S.-EU Trade Pact Calms Tariff Fears; Heineken, Crude Advance

European stocks rallied Monday after the U.S. and European Union finalized a trade agreement, averting a major tariff escalation. Germany’s DAX rose 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 gained 1.2%, and the FTSE 100 advanced 0.5% as the 15% baseline tariff—lower than the threatened 30%—brought relief to corporates seeking stability. Heineken reported strong H1 profit growth driven by Asia and Africa, despite sluggish European demand.

Wind turbine maker Nordex posted a sharp increase in new orders. Crude prices also rose in tandem, buoyed by easing trade tensions. Market attention now turns to central bank meetings and U.S. labor data later this week.

U.S. Pauses Tech Export Controls to China Amid Push for Trade Deal and Xi Meeting

The U.S. has temporarily halted new technology export restrictions to China in a strategic bid to advance trade negotiations and facilitate a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, according to the Financial Times. The Commerce Department has reportedly held back enforcement actions, aiding the resumption of Nvidia’s GPU exports to China. The move is part of broader talks covering critical materials such as rare earths.

While the easing aims to foster diplomatic progress, it has sparked concern among national security experts warning it could erode the U.S. advantage in AI-related technologies.

Conclusion

U.S. and global markets enter a pivotal period where trade dynamics and policy cues are steering sentiment. Asian markets remain cautious as U.S.–China talks unfold, while European and U.S. stocks have rallied on a new U.S.–EU trade pact. Commodities such as copper and oil reflect tightening supply and improving trade feedback loops. Tech and industrial exports signal diplomatic progress but raise strategic risks.

With strong earnings persisting alongside rising inventories and tariff uncertainty, investors now await major U.S. data releases and central bank commentary to frame positioning for late summer.

Investment Insights

• Trade Positioning: The U.S.–EU agreement and paused export controls with China signal a de-escalation in trade tensions—investors may consider reallocating toward export-reliant sectors and multinational equities.
• Commodities Watch: Tariff threats on copper, combined with global supply constraints, could support higher pricing—favorable for domestic miners and industrials with pricing power.
• Asia Opportunities: Vietnamese and Indonesian equities continue to outperform on strong domestic momentum—selective exposure to Southeast Asian growth markets may enhance diversification.
• Tech Policy Risk: The easing of U.S. export controls benefits near-term chipmakers like Nvidia, but longer-term regulatory volatility remains a key consideration in AI-related equities.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.