Key Points

• Asia Stocks Mixed: Investors await the U.S.-China tariff truce decision; Australia’s ASX 200 hits a record high ahead of an expected RBA rate cut.
• Nvidia & AMD China Deal: Both companies secure export licenses for AI chips by agreeing to pay 15% of related sales revenues to the U.S. government.
• Gold Retreats: Prices pull back from record highs as markets await U.S. CPI data and clarity on White House bullion tariff policy.
• SoftBank AI Push: Masayoshi Son ramps up AI investments, betting on integrated semiconductor-to-application strategies for long-term leadership.

Asia Stocks Mixed as China Tariff Truce Nears; ASX Hits Record on RBA Cut Bets

Asian equities traded mixed on Monday as investors awaited the August 12 expiry of the U.S.-China tariff truce, with sentiment tempered by uncertainty over whether an extension will be secured. Chinese stocks saw modest gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped and South Korea’s KOSPI and Singapore’s Straits Times Index were flat.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 reached a record high ahead of an expected 25-basis-point rate cut by the RBA, driven by soft inflation and a cooling labour market. Wall Street’s strong close last week, buoyed by Fed rate cut hopes, lent mild support to regional trading despite low volumes.

Nvidia, AMD Strike Revenue-Sharing Deal for China Chip Sales Amid U.S. Tariff Push

Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to remit 15% of revenues from specific chip sales in China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 processors, the Financial Times reported. The deal follows President Trump’s threat to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors unless production occurs domestically.

The arrangement highlights Washington’s strategic use of tariff exemptions to secure economic concessions while maintaining pressure on the tech sector. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump last week as negotiations intensified over semiconductor trade policy.

Gold Retreats Ahead of U.S. CPI as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Bullion

Gold prices eased in Asian trading, with spot gold down 0.7% to $3,376.24/oz and December futures off 1.5% to $3,438.22, as markets awaited U.S. inflation data and clarity on a new bullion tariff policy. Prices had surged above $3,530 last week after U.S. Customs ruled that standard 1-kg and 100-ounce bars would face import duties, disrupting supply chains and prompting some Swiss refiners to halt shipments.

The White House is expected to issue an executive order to clarify the policy. Traders also focus on July CPI data Tuesday, with expectations for a 0.2% rise, as Fed rate-cut bets hover near 89% for September.

SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Doubles Down on AI as Core Future Strategy

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is making his most ambitious bet yet, positioning the Japanese conglomerate at the heart of the AI revolution through aggressive acquisitions and investments. The strategy includes majority ownership of Arm, a planned $6.5 billion acquisition of Ampere Computing, and a $32.7 billion commitment to OpenAI, alongside a portfolio of AI-focused companies spanning semiconductors, infrastructure, and applications.

Son envisions artificial superintelligence within a decade, aiming to create a deeply integrated AI ecosystem. While past missteps like Pepper and early driverless car bets highlight the risks, SoftBank sees AI as an early-cycle opportunity with potentially transformative long-term rewards.

Conclusion

Global markets are navigating a complex mix of policy uncertainty, strategic corporate maneuvers, and sector-specific shifts.

The looming U.S.-China tariff deadline continues to weigh on sentiment in Asia, while tech leaders like Nvidia, AMD, and SoftBank are positioning aggressively in AI and semiconductor markets despite geopolitical headwinds.

Commodity markets remain sensitive to policy signals, with gold retreating as investors await critical U.S. inflation data. These developments underscore the importance of agility in portfolio positioning and balancing exposure to high-growth innovation themes with prudent risk management in anticipation of policy decisions and macroeconomic indicators that could quickly alter market trajectories.

Investment Insights

• Asia-Pacific Equities: Markets remain sensitive to U.S.–China trade developments; maintaining flexibility in regional exposure is critical until tariff direction is confirmed.
• Semiconductor Sector: Nvidia and AMD’s revenue-sharing deal with the U.S. government secures China market access, but geopolitical risk pricing should remain elevated.
• Precious Metals: Gold’s pullback underscores near-term tariff and inflation uncertainty; upcoming CPI/PPI data will shape Fed policy and bullion demand outlook.
• AI & Strategic Tech: SoftBank’s concentrated AI investments highlight long-duration potential but carry high technology-disruption risk; consider diversified exposure to the AI value chain.

Economic Calendar

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.