Key Points

• Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Puts Ukraine and Markets on Alert: Leaders meet in Alaska for high-stakes talks on Ukraine, with potential implications for security, energy, and global trade.
• Hot U.S. Inflation Data Tempers Fed Cut Optimism, Lifts Yields: July PPI rose 0.9%, exceeding forecasts and pushing Treasury yields higher, trimming expectations for aggressive Fed easing.
• China’s July Data Misses Underscore Growth Risks: Retail sales and industrial output fell short of forecasts, highlighting slowing momentum and policy headwinds despite a temporary U.S.-China tariff pause.
• Intel Shares Surge on Report of Potential U.S. Government Stake: Stock rose 7% on reports Washington may invest to bolster domestic chip production and support Intel’s Ohio factory projects.

Trump-Putin Alaska Summit

Trump and Putin will meet Friday at Alaska’s Elmendorf Richardson military base for closed-door talks expected to focus on resolving the Ukraine conflict, with a joint press conference to follow. The summit comes amid fears from Kyiv and European allies that Washington could accept concessions on Ukrainian territory and NATO ambitions in exchange for a ceasefire.

Russia’s delegation, led by top ministers, is also expected to discuss broader security issues and potential economic cooperation with the U.S. Markets are watching for any breakthrough or shift in geopolitical risk, given the implications for energy, defense, and global trade flows.

Hot U.S. Inflation Data Tempers Fed Cut Optimism, Lifts Yields

Global equities eased Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. producer prices challenged market confidence in aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher at a fresh record, while the Dow and Nasdaq ended flat. July PPI rose 0.9% versus expectations of 0.2%, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and tempering bets on a September 25-basis-point cut, now seen as a 92.5% probability.

The dollar strengthened against major peers, while Brent crude climbed 1.84% to $66.84 on geopolitical tensions ahead of the U.S.-Russia summit. Gold retreated as risk sentiment stabilized and yields moved higher.

China’s July Data Misses Underscore Growth Risks

China’s economy lost momentum in July as retail sales rose 3.7% and industrial output increased 5.7%, both missing forecasts and marking the weakest factory growth since November. Fixed-asset investment slowed to 1.6% year-to-date, with property investment plunging 12%, reflecting weak demand and tighter controls on excess capacity in sectors like steel and coal. Adverse weather further disrupted activity, while youth unemployment excluding students remained above 14%. Despite 5.3% growth in H1, economists warn of downside risks to Beijing’s 5% annual target, urging fresh policy support.

A 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause offers temporary relief but leaves core disputes unresolved.

Intel Shares Surge

Intel stock jumped 7% Thursday after reports the Trump administration is in talks to acquire a stake in the chipmaker to support domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The move would help fund Intel’s Ohio factory projects and bolster U.S. capacity for advanced chips, an area where Intel remains the only domestic producer. The reported plan follows President Trump’s push for more high-tech production in the U.S. and recent government interventions in strategic industries.

Intel shares are now up 19% year-to-date after a 60% plunge in 2024, though its foundry business still faces challenges securing major customers.

Conclusion

Global markets remain attuned to a convergence of geopolitical and macroeconomic drivers.

The Trump-Putin summit could redefine the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict and broader U.S.-Russia relations, with spillovers for energy and defense sectors. U.S. inflation surprises have tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing, lifting yields and reinforcing a cautious stance among investors.

China’s weaker July data underscores lingering growth vulnerabilities despite temporary trade relief, while strategic U.S. industrial policy moves, such as a potential stake in Intel — highlight Washington’s focus on securing critical supply chains.

These developments frame a complex environment demanding selective, risk-aware positioning.

Investment Insights

• The Trump-Putin summit outcome: could shift geopolitical risk pricing, particularly in energy, defense, and emerging market debt.
• Hot U.S. PPI data: supports maintaining duration hedges and a cautious stance on rate-sensitive equities until Fed policy clarity improves.
• China’s July slowdown: reinforces the case for selective exposure to sectors benefiting from policy support while avoiding overreliance on cyclical demand recovery.
• A potential U.S. government stake in Intel: underscores strategic reshoring trends, favoring domestic semiconductor and critical tech supply chain plays over foreign-dependent peers.

Economic Calendar