
Date Issued – 12th September 2025
Courtesy of the Research Department at Balfour Capital Group
Key Points
- SK Hynix Breakthrough: Shares jumped 7% to 25-year highs after unveiling HBM4, fueling optimism for AI-driven semiconductor demand.
- Wall Street Records: Dow closed above 46,000 for the first time as rate-cut bets outweighed hotter CPI, though futures steadied afterward.
- Yields Rebound: U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year near 4.04%, as markets weighed strong inflation against rising jobless claims.
- Europe’s Tech Revival: Klarna’s IPO and ASML’s AI funding push reignited optimism for Europe’s ability to scale competitive tech champions.
SK Hynix Leads Tech-Driven Asia Rally Amid Fed Cut Optimism
Asian equities advanced Friday, with SK Hynix surging more than 7% to a 25-year high after unveiling its HBM4 chip, seen as critical for next-generation AI applications. The gains came alongside strength in Alibaba and Baidu, which rose over 6% and 10% in Hong Kong as they deployed in-house semiconductors to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Japan’s Nikkei climbed 0.9% to a fresh record, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.5% and Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.7%. Global markets remain buoyed by easing inflation pressures and expectations of U.S. rate cuts, with Wall Street indices closing at record highs overnight.U.S. Futures Steady After Wall Street Rallies on Rate-Cut Bets
U.S. stock futures traded flat Thursday night after Wall Street closed at record highs, driven by mounting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts next week. The Dow surged more than 600 points to finish above 46,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.7%. A hotter-than-expected 0.4% monthly CPI print was offset by jobless claims rising to their highest since 2021, reinforcing the case for easing. Futures markets now fully price in a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with analysts signaling further reductions may follow.Treasury Yields Edge Higher as Fed Balances Inflation and Jobs Data
U.S. Treasury yields inched up Friday, with the 10-year trading near 4.04%, as investors weighed conflicting signals from inflation and labor data ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The August CPI rose 2.9% year on year, its sharpest monthly gain since January, while core inflation held at 3.1%, both above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, jobless claims climbed to their highest since 2021, underscoring a softening labor market. Economists expect the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, though divisions within the committee highlight the tension between containing inflation and supporting employment.Klarna IPO and AI Funding Lift Europe’s Tech Ambitions
Europe’s tech sector drew fresh momentum this week as Klarna surged 15% in its long-awaited NYSE debut, valuing the fintech at over $17 billion, while Dutch chipmaker ASML led a €1.7 billion funding round for French AI firm Mistral, doubling its valuation to €11.7 billion. London-based ElevenLabs also doubled its valuation to $6.6 billion in a secondary sale. The string of deals has revived hopes that Europe can compete more effectively with U.S. and Asian tech hubs, though systemic hurdles such as fragmented regulations and limited pension-fund backing still weigh on the region’s long-term scalability.Conclusion
In Asia, SK Hynix’s HBM4 milestone reinforced AI’s role as a structural growth driver, while Japan’s Nikkei and regional peers gained on Fed rate-cut optimism. In the U.S., equities hit record highs despite mixed CPI and labor data, with Treasury yields highlighting the Fed’s policy challenge. Meanwhile, Europe’s tech ambitions received a boost through Klarna’s IPO and AI-focused funding, signaling renewed investor confidence. Global markets continue to reflect a delicate balance between monetary policy expectations, corporate breakthroughs, and macroeconomic headwinds. Together, these developments suggest cautious optimism, but investors must remain alert to inflation dynamics and policy-driven volatility.Investment Insights
- Semiconductor breakthroughs: SK Hynix’s HBM4 highlight AI’s accelerating hardware demand, favoring selective exposure to chipmakers and suppliers.
- U.S. equities’ record highs: Suggest strong momentum, but rising jobless claims and sticky inflation mean investors should brace for Fed-driven volatility.
- Treasury yields near 4%: Signal persistent tension between inflation control and labor support, reinforcing the value of duration management in fixed-income portfolios.
- Europe’s renewed tech momentum: Klarna and Mistral offer diversification potential, though scaling risks remain; selective exposure to high-growth European names could complement U.S. and Asian tech allocations.
Economic Calendar
Date | Event | Why It Matters |
---|---|---|
Sept 17, 2025 | U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Policy Meeting | Markets expect the first rate cut; Fed guidance and projections will be closely scrutinized. |
Sept 19, 2025 | U.K. Interest Rate Decision | Signals Bank of England’s stance on inflation, growth, and currency stability. |
Sept 20, 2025 | Eurozone CPI Report | Key indicator for inflation pressures in Europe ahead of ECB decisions. |
Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.