Key Points

• Asia Stocks Advance: Kospi hit a record 4,221.87 as Asia markets climbed despite mixed China PMIs (private 50.6 vs 50.9 expected; official 49.0); RBA meeting in focus after hot Q3 inflation, with sentiment aided by Friday’s Wall St gains.
• Rare Earths Boom: U.S.-listed rare earths miners extended triple-digit surges as the critical-minerals race accelerates; Beijing’s one-year delay to new export controls post Trump–Xi offers near-term relief amid structurally rising EV/AI/clean-energy demand.
• OPEC+ Taps Brakes: Group added a modest 137k b/d for December and signaled a Q1 2026 pause to avoid a glut; Brent hovered near $65 and WTI ~$61 as Russian sanctions complicate supply dynamics ahead of the Nov. 30 meeting.
• U.S.–India Strains: India now faces a 50% U.S. tariff rate—above China’s ~47% post-truce—highlighting a more transactional U.S. posture; a new 10-year defense framework tempers risks but policy uncertainty clouds trade-exposed sectors.

Asia Stocks Advance Despite Mixed China PMIs; Kospi Sets Record, RBA in Focus

Asia-Pacific equities mostly gained as investors looked past mixed China readings—private October manufacturing PMI at 50.6 (vs 50.9 expected) and the official gauge at 49.0—to a stronger risk tone.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.78% to a record 4,221.87 (Kosdaq +1.57%), while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 and China’s CSI 300 added 0.27% to 4,653.4.

Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.15% ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two-day meeting, where a hold is widely expected after hot Q3 inflation; Japan was shut for a holiday.

Wall Street’s Friday gains (Nasdaq +0.61%, S&P 500 +0.26%, Dow little changed) underpinned sentiment.

Rare Earths Surge as Critical Minerals Race Intensifies; Truce Delay Fuels Momentum

U.S.-listed rare earths miners extended a torrid run amid intensifying competition to secure critical minerals: over the past three months, Critical Metals is up 241%, while NioCorp, Energy Fuels and Idaho Strategic Resources have each surged well above 100%; year-to-date, Energy Fuels has quadrupled and NioCorp has nearly quintupled.

The rally drew fresh support after Beijing agreed to delay new rare-earth export controls by one year following the Trump–Xi meeting, easing near-term supply risk.

Still, analysts caution that speculative froth sits atop a structural shift driven by clean-energy, EV and AI demand, with supply diversification likely lengthy and volatile.

OPEC+ Adds 137k b/d for December, Plans Q1 2026 Pause to Head Off Glut

OPEC+ approved a modest 137,000 b/d increase for December—matching October and November—then signaled a pause in January–March 2026 as the group tempers its market-share push amid oversupply risks.

Since April, output targets are up ~2.9 mb/d (~2.7% of global supply), but new U.S./UK sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil complicate further hikes.

With Q1 typically the weakest demand quarter, the pause aims to stabilize balances. Brent settled Friday at $65.07 (+$0.07) and WTI at $60.98 (+$0.41), moves largely anticipated by the market.

The eight-member core meets again on Nov. 30 alongside a full OPEC+ gathering.

U.S.–India Ties Strain as Tariffs Top China’s; Strategic Alignment in Question

India now faces a 50% effective U.S. tariff rate—above China’s ~47% after last week’s Trump–Xi trade truce—underscoring a shift toward a more transactional U.S. stance that has cooled a two-decade strategic courtship.

Experts cite missing “leader-level” chemistry, new frictions from H1B fees and Washington’s posture on India–Pakistan tensions.

While both sides inked a 10-year defense framework to deepen coordination and tech cooperation, investors see a muddier policy backdrop: India could be pushed closer to Russia and the Global South even as supply-chain dependence on China persists, leaving trade-sensitive sectors exposed to headline risk and slower investment decisions.

Conclusion

Markets opened the week with a constructive bias: Asia equities advanced despite mixed China PMIs, Korea setting fresh highs, while rare earths names extended outsized gains on geopolitics-driven supply themes.

Energy remains range-bound as OPEC+ adds a small December increase but signals a Q1 pause to preempt a glut, reinforcing a floor near current levels.

Policy remains the wild card: a U.S.–China truce reduces headline risk, but U.S.–India frictions and sanctions on Russia complicate trade and supply chains.

Positioning favors quality cyclicals tied to AI/industrial spending, selective commodities exposure, and disciplined hedging against policy reversals and demand softness near term.

Investment Insights

• Rare earths positioning: Barbell upstream (low-cost producers with processing capacity) and downstream (magnets/EV components).
• Energy stance: Expect range-bound crude into Q1 on OPEC+ pause and weak seasonal demand.
• India risk management: Tariff overhang argues for a neutral weight near term.
• China exposure: Focus on policy-aligned themes (AI infrastructure, grid upgrades) over broad cyclicals; pair with downside protection given uncertain flow dynamics.

Economic Calendar

Sources: Investing.com economic calendar; ISM release schedule; ADP release calendar; XTB weekly calendar; ASX RBA Rate Indicator.