Key Points

• Pullback Risk: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley flag a 10%–20% correction over 12–24 months after AI-led highs, advising investors to stay invested while tilting toward Asia’s multi-year reform stories.
• Asia Tech Selloff: Nikkei –2.5% (50,212) and Kospi ~–2% (4,004) as AI leaders slump; Palantir –8% despite beats underscores stretched valuations with S&P 500 forward P/E >23.
• Novo Nordisk Reset: Guidance narrowed to sales +8–11% and OP +4–7% as pricing and competition bite; Wegovy +18% to DKK 20.35bn; pursuing Metsera with an offer up to $10bn to bolster pipeline.
• SoftBank Slide: SoftBank –10% (~$23bn mkt-cap hit) leads regional AI drawdown; Arm –4.7%, Samsung/TSMC lower, stoking bubble talk even as some see a temporary shakeout.

Wall Street Chiefs Flag Pullback Risk Amid AI-Led Highs

Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon and Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick warned that a 10%–20% equity drawdown over the next 12–24 months would be a normal reset after a relentless AI-fueled rally, urging investors to stay invested while reassessing allocations. Their remarks echo IMF concerns about stretched valuations and rising odds of a “sharp correction.” Bright spots remain in Asia—Japan’s governance reforms, India’s infrastructure build-out, and selective opportunities in China/Hong Kong across AI, EVs, and biotech—supporting a barbell approach: keep core exposure, stress-test for a 15% shock, and rotate incrementally from crowded winners into quality cyclicals and Asia’s multi-year reform stories.

Asia Tech-Led Selloff Knocks Nikkei, Kospi; AI Valuation Jitters Bite

Asian equities fell as investors rotated out of AI leaders: Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered from a near-5% intraday slump to close down 2.5% at 50,212, with SoftBank off ~10%+, while South Korea’s Kospi slid 2.9% to 4,004 amid losses in Samsung and SK Hynix. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was roughly flat near 25,935. The pullback followed a U.S. tech dip and an 8% drop in Palantir despite strong results, stoking concern that AI-driven multiples have outrun fundamentals. With regional FX (won) softening and forward P/Es stretched, the setup favors profit-taking in crowded AI trades and a selective tilt toward balance-sheet strength and cash-flow visibility until volatility fades.

Novo Nordisk Trims GLP-1 Outlook as Pricing, Competition Tighten

Novo Nordisk narrowed 2025 guidance again, cutting expected sales growth to 8–11% (from 8–14%) and operating profit growth to 4–7% (from 4–10%) despite solid demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, underscoring mounting pricing pressure and intensifying competition in obesity care. Q3 net profit was DKK 20bn (~$3.1bn) in line with estimates; Wegovy sales rose 18% to DKK 20.35bn but missed forecasts. Shares swung from –4.5% at the open to +1.7% intraday, remaining ~45% lower year-to-date. Management highlighted U.S. pricing headwinds, trial disappointments, and leadership noise, while doubling down on pipeline scale via a bidding war for Metsera—raising its offer to up to $10bn even as Pfizer challenges the deal in court. Investor take: GLP-1 secular growth remains intact, but valuation support hinges on margin durability and M&A execution. Expect multiple compression risk until pricing clarity improves and late-stage assets de-risk.

SoftBank Leads AI Rout as Valuation Angst Ripples Across Asia

SoftBank sank 10% (≈$23bn wiped) amid a broad AI-led selloff, with Arm off ~4.7% overnight and regional chip names weaker—Samsung –4.1%, SK Hynix –1.2%, TSMC –3.0%—as investors questioned stretched multiples after Palantir’s 8% drop despite beats. The AI trade’s crowding has pushed the S&P 500’s forward P/E above 23 (near 2000 levels), reviving bubble analogies. Market voices are split between warnings (Jared Bernstein, Michael Burry’s shorts in AI leaders) and calls that the shakeout is temporary (Dan Ives). Investor take: Expect elevated volatility and correlation risk around AI bellwethers. Prioritize balance-sheet strength and earnings visibility, fade the most extended names, and use weakness to add to secular winners only where cash-flow paths are credible.

Conclusion

Markets are confronting the first meaningful test of an AI-driven advance: leadership names wobbled, Asia turned risk-off, and top Wall Street CEOs openly framed a 10%–20% correction as a healthy reset. Beneath the volatility, select long-duration themes remain intact—Japan’s governance reforms, India’s infrastructure cycle, and credible AI cash-flow stories—while stretched multiples and pricing pressure (e.g., GLP-1s) argue for discipline. Liquidity management and downside protection remain priorities into year-end positioning.

Investment Insights

• Market Correction: Maintain long-term positioning while strengthening diversification and downside protection.
• Asia Tech Selloff: Treat AI-exposed equities with valuation discipline, favoring demonstrable earnings resilience.
• Novo Nordisk Guidance Trim: In healthcare, prioritize diversified pipelines and pricing power over headline growth.
• SoftBank-Led AI Pullback: Mitigate concentration risk by balancing secular AI exposure with quality and valuation rigor.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 6, 2025	Bank of England Rate Decision (MPC)	Sets U.K. policy path into year-end; implications for gilts, sterling, and European rate expectations.
November 7, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (October)	First read on labor momentum; key for growth outlook, risk appetite, and rate-cut timing.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation gauge shaping Fed policy expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 19, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 meeting)	Reveals committee debate on inflation risks and the bar for future easing.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE, October)	Fed’s preferred inflation metric and a pulse on consumer demand heading into the holidays.

Sources: Bank of England calendar; U.S. BLS CPI and Employment release schedules; Federal Reserve events calendar; BEA release schedule.