Key Points

• Volatility: DBS CEO Tan Su Shan flagged stretched U.S. valuations and concentration in mega-cap tech, urging broader diversification with Singapore positioned as a stable hub.
• China Trade Surprise: October exports fell 1.1% YoY with U.S.-bound shipments down 25%; imports rose 1%, missing forecasts—signaling softer external demand and weak domestic momentum.
• U.S.–India Thaw Watch: Trump said India has “largely” reduced Russian oil purchases and hinted at a 2026 visit; talk of lower U.S. tariffs faces hurdles on energy and agriculture.
• Asia Risk-Off: Regional equities fell as AI-heavy names retreated and China’s trade miss weighed; Japan and Korea led declines while India was more resilient.

DBS Chief Flags Volatility, Urges Diversification Beyond U.S. Tech Leaders

DBS CEO Tan Su Shan warned that stretched U.S. equity valuations—especially the “Magnificent Seven”—and concentration risk point to continued swings across stocks, rates, and FX, echoing recent cautions from Wall Street chiefs and global policymakers about a potential 10%–20% pullback.

While calling a correction “healthy,” Tan advised investors to diversify exposures rather than time the market, highlighting Singapore’s rule of law, transparent markets, and political stability as a regional hub for capital.

Investor consideration: reduce reliance on crowded AI winners, spread risk across geographies and sectors, and position for choppier conditions without abandoning long-term allocations.

China’s Export Pulse Slips as U.S.-Bound Shipments Drop 25%

China’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% YoY in October (vs. +3% expected) after September’s 8.3% surge, while imports rose a softer-than-forecast 1%, underscoring weak domestic demand and a prolonged manufacturing contraction.

U.S.-bound exports slid 25%—the seventh straight double-digit decline—despite a recent tariff truce that eased effective duties, with firms redirecting sales to ASEAN, the EU and Africa.

Year to date, overall exports are up 5.3% even as bilateral trade with the U.S. shrinks; economists expect Beijing to lean more on fiscal support to stabilize growth.

Investor takeaway: external momentum is cooling, shifting focus to China’s policy impulse and domestic demand.

Trump Signals Thaw With India, Claims Russian Oil Buys Have Slowed

President Trump said trade talks with New Delhi are progressing and hinted at a 2026 visit if invited by Prime Minister Modi, asserting India has “largely stopped” importing Russian crude.

Analysts remain skeptical that India can fully phase out discounted Russian barrels, even as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil take effect Nov. 21 and Asian refiners trim purchases.

Policy watchers see scope for a tariff cut on Indian goods to ~20% from 50% if a deal is reached, though sticking points include energy ties and agriculture.

Investor angle: a partial de-escalation could support India-U.S. supply chains and sentiment.

Asia Stocks Slide as AI Rout Resumes; China Trade Miss Deepens Growth Worries

Asia-Pacific equities tracked Wall Street lower as renewed selling in AI leaders pulled regional benchmarks into the red—Nikkei –1.19% (SoftBank –6.9%, Advantest –5.5%), Kospi –1.81% (Samsung –1.3%, SK Hynix –2.2%), Hang Seng –0.92%, CSI 300 –0.31%, and Australia’s ASX 200 –0.66%.

Fresh China data compounded risk aversion: October exports fell 1.1% YoY and imports rose 1.0%, both missing forecasts and reinforcing weak domestic demand.

India outperformed marginally (Nifty +0.11%) despite pressure in telecoms after Singtel trimmed its Airtel stake. U.S. futures stabilized after Thursday’s tech-led drop, but sentiment remains valuation-sensitive.

Conclusion

Markets are navigating a more fragile tape: DBS’s caution on stretched U.S. mega-cap valuations and concentration risk aligns with renewed pressure on AI leaders, while China’s surprise export contraction underscores soft external demand and uneven domestic recovery.

Geopolitically, a tentative U.S.–India thaw could trim tariffs and support supply-chain diversification, but energy and agriculture frictions persist.

Near term, expect choppy, valuation-sensitive trading; prioritize diversified exposure, strong balance sheets, and visible cash flows.

Watch upcoming U.S. labor/inflation prints and any China policy impulse for direction. Use volatility to upgrade quality and avoid crowded trades until earnings durability, policy clarity, and growth signals improve.

Investment Insights

• Volatility & concentration: Reduce reliance on mega-cap U.S. tech; broaden exposure by region and sector, emphasizing balance-sheet strength.
• China trade softness: Favor companies with diversified demand and pricing power; be cautious on names tied to China’s export cycle.
• U.S.–India backdrop: Supply-chain realignment supports India-linked themes, but tariff and energy policy outcomes remain key swing factors.
• AI-led risk-off: Keep valuation discipline in AI beneficiaries; prioritize firms with clear earnings visibility over momentum.

Economic Calendar

Sources: Bank of England calendar; U.S. BLS CPI and Employment release schedules; Federal Reserve events calendar; BEA release schedule.