Key Points

• China slows U.S. soybean buys despite truce: Record Chinese stockpiles and cheaper Brazilian supply curb near-term U.S. sales, tempering expectations from the recent trade deal.
• Japan GDP slips: Q3 contracted 1.8% annualized, with exports and housing investment dragging; talk of fiscal support and growth-sector investment likely to intensify.
• Crypto under pressure: Bitcoin has fallen about 25% from its October peak amid thin liquidity and fading risk appetite, with further downside if macro conditions tighten.
• Eyes on Nvidia: Global stocks cautious as Wednesday’s results test AI-led valuations; rate-cut odds for December have dipped below 50%, keeping tech sentiment fragile.

China Slow-Walks U.S. Soybeans Despite Trade Truce

China’s soybean imports from the U.S. have barely picked up since the Trump–Xi summit, with USDA data showing just two purchases (332,000 tons) as Beijing leans on record stockpiles and cheaper Brazilian supply.

Port inventories hit a high (10.3 million tons) after months of heavy buying, while Brazil supplied roughly 80% of China’s year-to-date imports and is poised for another record harvest: adding price pressure for U.S. farmers.

Beijing restored some U.S. import licenses and struck conciliatory tones, but state buyers show little evidence of a large buying program. For markets, soy remains a geopolitical lever, not a demand snapback.

Japan Q3 GDP Slips, but Consumption Softens the Blow

Japan’s economy contracted 1.8% annualized in Q3 (-0.4% q/q), the first decline in six quarters, as exports fell and residential investment slumped more than 30%.

The drop was milder than expected, helped by steady government and private consumption, with public demand up 0.5% q/q. Exports shrank 4.5% annualized, while private demand was the main drag amid a 9.4% q/q plunge in housing.

The figures bolster expectations for fiscal support under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with Tokyo preparing a large stimulus focused on energy relief and growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and shipbuilding.

Crypto Slide Deepens as Liquidity Thins

Bitcoin fell below $95,000, down about 25% from its Oct. 6 peak, as a macro-driven risk selloff and subsequent forced liquidations drained market liquidity.

Ether has slipped more than 35% from August highs. Fading hopes for a December Fed cut and the shutdown’s data blackout have cooled sentiment, while ETF inflows have slowed and in some cases reversed.

Strategists warn a retest of the low-$70Ks is possible if equities weaken further, though they note this downturn lacks 2022-style credit stress. Longer-horizon investors argue the structural case for digital assets remains intact pending a turn in global liquidity.

Stocks Cautious Ahead of Nvidia Test

Asian equities edged lower as investors braced for a pivotal week of U.S. “catch-up” data and big-ticket earnings, with Nvidia’s Wednesday results seen as the main sentiment driver after rate-cut odds for December slipped below 50%.

Tech remained the pressure point globally; Japan’s market also faced fresh China–Japan tensions that hit tourism and retail names, while stimulus headlines lifted long yields. U.S. futures were modestly higher, but the dollar firmed and Brent eased.

With jobs data delayed and Fed officials sounding wary on inflation, the market’s near-term tone hinges on Nvidia’s outlook and whether it validates rich AI-led valuations.

Conclusion

Markets enter the week on a cautious footing. Hopes for a near-term Fed cut have faded, pressuring rate-sensitive tech and curbing risk appetite.

In Asia, Japan’s first GDP contraction in six quarters underscores external and housing headwinds even as policymakers signal support for strategic sectors.

China’s slow-walking of U.S. soybean purchases highlights that geopolitics remains a key swing factor for trade flows and prices.

Crypto’s drawdown reflects thinner liquidity and macro uncertainty rather than systemic stress.

Near term, Nvidia’s results and delayed U.S. data will set the tone.

Investment Insights

• China–U.S. soybeans: Don’t bank on rapid Chinese buying. Expect Brazil to keep share gains and U.S. farm prices under pressure; keep ag exposure diversified across origins and inputs.
• Japan GDP dip: Short-term softness raises odds of fiscal support. Look to beneficiaries of planned spending (chips, AI, shipbuilding, grid) while monitoring yen sensitivity.
• Crypto drawdown: Treat bitcoin as a high-volatility satellite holding. Keep sizes modest, add only on a long horizon, and wait for clearer signs of easier global liquidity.
• AI earnings test: Nvidia’s print will steer sentiment across the AI complex. Emphasize valuation discipline and cash-generators across the stack to reduce single-name risk.

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