Key Points

• India–U.S. energy pivot: New LPG deal (≈10% of India’s imports) and higher U.S. crude purchases signal a thaw that could aid tariff talks, though India’s energy bill may rise near term.
• Europe pulls back on AI jitters: Stoxx 600 slid as tech worries resurfaced; healthcare outperformed while resources and banks lagged, with Nvidia results and delayed U.S. jobs data in focus.
• India’s record trade gap: October goods deficit hit $41.7B on a 200% surge in gold imports; U.S.-bound exports fell under 50% tariffs, pointing to a wider current-account gap.
• Gold softens on Fed doubts: Prices fell as odds of a December rate cut eased and the dollar firmed; markets await the delayed September U.S. payrolls for policy direction.

India Tilts U.S.-Ward on Energy to Ease Tariff Tensions

India moved to rebalance strained trade ties with Washington by striking its first structured deal to buy U.S. liquefied petroleum gas: about 10% of its annual LPG needs, and sharply increasing U.S. crude purchases to the highest since 2021.

The shift could lift India’s import bill but may help unlock a broader trade agreement if some tariffs are rolled back.

While the White House says India has “largely” reduced Russian oil buys, tanker data still show elevated inflows ahead of new sanctions deadlines.

For markets, the move signals incremental demand support for U.S. energy exports and a potential de-escalation path in U.S.–India trade frictions.

Europe Slides as Tech Jitters Spill Over

European stocks fell Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 down about 1.3% by mid-morning, tracking Wall Street’s tech-led pullback and fresh doubts around the AI trade.

Cyclicals lagged: basic resources and banks dropped, while healthcare held up as Roche jumped on positive breast-cancer drug data.

Corporate movers were mixed: Intermediate Capital Group surged after Amundi took a near-10% stake; Akzo Nobel slipped on its merger with Axalta; Novo Nordisk eased after flagging an earlier U.S. price cut for Wegovy.

With few European data releases, attention stays on delayed U.S. jobs figures and Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, a key test for AI sentiment.

India’s Record Trade Gap on Gold Surge and Tariff Hit

India’s merchandise trade deficit ballooned to a record $41.7 billion in October, far above the $28.8 billion expected, as festive demand sent gold imports to $14.7 billion; nearly triple last year.

U.S. tariffs weighed on exports: shipments to America fell 8.5% to $6.3 billion, with gems, jewelry, engineering goods and textiles notably weaker, while exports to China rose 42% to $1.6 billion.

Ratings firm ICRA expects imports to cool in Nov–Dec as gold demand fades, but sees the current-account deficit widening to about 2.4%–2.5% of GDP in Q3 FY26; a full-year CAD near 1.2% assumes U.S. tariffs stay in place.

Gold Slips as Dollar Firms and Fed-Cut Hopes Fade

Gold extended losses in Asia, with spot prices down 0.7% to ~$4,019/oz and December futures off 1.4%, as traders scaled back odds of a December Fed rate cut and the dollar strengthened.

Markets now see roughly a 42% chance of a 25 bp cut, placing more weight on a hold ahead of Thursday’s long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls, the last key labor read before the December 10-11 meeting.

Higher-for-longer rates and firmer Treasury yields continue to sap demand for non-yielding assets.

Broad metals weakness followed: silver and platinum fell ~0.7% each, while LME copper slipped 0.8% after last week’s gains.

Conclusion

Markets remain cautious as policy and trade dynamics intersect with shifting risk appetite.

India’s move to deepen U.S. energy ties offers a path to ease tariff frictions, yet near-term costs may lift its import bill and widen external balances, as October’s record trade gap underscores.

In Europe, equities retreated on renewed AI valuation worries, leaving investors focused on Nvidia’s results for clues to capex durability.

Meanwhile, gold extended losses as expectations for a December Fed cut faded and the dollar strengthened ahead of delayed U.S. payrolls.

Investment Insights

• India–U.S. energy ties: India buying more U.S. gas and oil can ease tensions and support future trade deals. In the short term, India may face higher energy costs, businesses that earn in dollars or export more could hold up better.
• Europe’s AI jitters: Swings in AI-related stocks are likely to continue. Focus on firms with clear profits from AI.
• India’s record trade gap: A wider trade deficit and tariffs are pressure points. Favor Indian companies with global sales or strong foreign demand while being cautious on sectors that depend heavily on imports.
• Gold and interest rates: If U.S. interest rates stay high, gold can struggle.

Economic Calendar