Key Points

• China GPUs: “China’s Nvidia” Moore Threads soared over 400% on its Shanghai debut after a $1.1 billion IPO, underscoring intense domestic demand for AI GPUs as Beijing accelerates efforts to localize high-end chip supply.
• Europe & the Fed: European equities edged higher as investors priced in an ~87% probability of a Fed rate cut next week, while watching fresh U.S. inflation and spending data alongside ongoing Ukraine peace negotiations.
• Oil & Geopolitics: WTI is on track for a second straight weekly gain, supported by Fed-cut expectations, disrupted Caspian exports, OPEC+’s steady output stance and rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions.
• AI & Software: Salesforce shares bounced after strong earnings and rapid Agentforce growth, with CEO Marc Benioff arguing large language models are a “commodity” layer and that durable value will sit in proprietary data and enterprise apps.

Moore Threads’ Blockbuster Debut Underscores China’s GPU Push

Shares of Moore Threads, dubbed “China’s Nvidia,” surged more than 400% on their Shanghai debut after a $1.1 billion IPO, closing over five times the offer price.

The loss-making GPU designer plans to deploy proceeds into next-generation AI training and inference chips and working capital, despite being under U.S. sanctions since 2023 that restrict access to advanced foundries.

The listing highlights Beijing’s accelerated drive for domestic AI hardware, as rivals such as Huawei, Cambricon, Enflame and Biren race to fill the gap left by Nvidia export curbs, reinforcing the strategic importance of China’s local GPU ecosystem.

European Equities Edge Higher as Fed and Data Calendar Drive Sentiment

European stocks opened firmer, with the Stoxx 600 up around 0.3%, as investors position ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, where markets now price an 87% probability of a 25 bp rate cut.

Attention today is on delayed U.S. PCE inflation, consumer spending and sentiment data after jobless claims surprised on the downside, as well as euro area GDP and key national indicators from Germany, France and Italy.

Geopolitics remains in the background amid EU talks on using frozen Russian assets and Putin’s India visit, while single-stock moves include a drop in Swiss Re and a double-digit jump in Ocado on a settlement from Kroger.

Oil Steadies as WTI Heads for Second Weekly Gain on Fed Hopes and Supply Risks

WTI crude is on track for a roughly 1.7% weekly gain, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, elevated geopolitical risk, and constrained exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, even as both WTI and Brent ticked slightly lower in Friday trade.

While OPEC+ has committed to keep output steady into early 2026, markets are weighing the downside risk of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could return additional barrels against upside risks from escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions, which threaten roughly 1.1 million bpd of Venezuelan supply.

Saudi Arabia’s price cuts to Asia underscore a still-fragile balance between surplus fears and geopolitically driven support.

Salesforce Reframes AI as Commodity Layer as Agentforce Drives Share Rebound

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff pushed back against fears that AI will erode enterprise software moats, arguing large language models are “commodity” inputs and that value lies in proprietary data and applications.

He highlighted Agentforce, Salesforce’s AI-driven workflow automation suite, now running at more than $500 million in annualized revenue and growing 330% year on year, with over 18,500 deals closed since launch.

Despite Salesforce shares being down over 25% year-to-date while the Nasdaq gains more than 20%, the stock rose after a strong earnings beat and upgraded revenue guidance, underscoring investor appetite for proven, monetized AI use cases over pure model bets.

Conclusion

Global markets continue to rotate around three intertwined forces: AI infrastructure, monetary policy, and geopolitics.

China’s aggressive push to build a domestic GPU ecosystem, highlighted by Moore Threads’ explosive IPO, reinforces the structural demand story in AI hardware while raising competitive pressure on incumbent leaders.

In developed markets, rising expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut are keeping risk assets supported, even as commodity prices respond to renewed supply and security risks.

At the same time, Salesforce’s stance that AI is a commoditized layer underlines a broader shift: durable value will accrue to data-rich platforms, not standalone models over time.

Investment Insights

• AI hardware: diversify beyond U.S. names. Moore Threads’ explosive IPO highlights Beijing’s commitment to domestic GPUs; global investors should treat Chinese AI hardware as a parallel ecosystem with its own regulatory and geopolitical risk, not a simple Nvidia proxy.
• Central banks still anchor risk sentiment. With markets heavily priced for a Fed cut and a full week of data ahead, portfolios should remain flexible around rate expectations and avoid over-concentrating in any single “soft landing” scenario.
• Oil: range-bound with asymmetric tail risks. Fed easing, OPEC+ discipline, and Venezuela/Russia headlines keep a floor under crude; energy exposure can serve as a partial hedge against geopolitical shocks, but position sizing should assume periodic spikes and retracements rather than a one-way trend.
• AI as a feature, not a moat. Benioff’s “LLMs are a commodity” message reinforces a key theme: durable value is more likely to sit in firms that own trusted customer data, workflow integration, and distribution, rather than in model providers alone.

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