Key Points

• Paramount-WBD Battle: Paramount launched a hostile $30-per-share all-cash tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix’s accepted bid and setting up a high-stakes fight that could prompt counteroffers and legal battles as shareholders weigh value, control, and regulatory risk.
• U.S.-China Chip Shift: President Trump approved Nvidia’s H200 AI chip sales to “approved” Chinese customers in exchange for a 25% revenue share with the U.S. government, marking a significant shift in tech-trade policy and lifting semiconductor sentiment despite lingering geopolitical tensions.
• Middle East AI Momentum: Ray Dalio said the UAE and Saudi Arabia are emerging as global AI hubs, attracting talent and capital through large-scale cloud and data-center investments, while warning that global markets face a precarious period driven by debt burdens, political conflict, and stretched valuations.
• Farm Aid Package: The White House unveiled a $12 billion aid program to support U.S. farmers hit by trade-war fallout, offering one-time payments funded by tariff revenues as China’s agricultural imports remain below prior levels despite a tentative trade thaw.

Paramount Escalates Battle for WBD With Hostile $30 Cash Offer

Paramount intensified its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, launching a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share above Netflix’s previously accepted $27.75 cash-and-stock deal. Backed by $41 billion in equity financing and $54 billion in debt commitments, the offer sets up a high-stakes contest that could prompt a counter-move from Netflix.

WBD’s board reaffirmed support for its agreement with Netflix but will review Paramount’s proposal, which some analysts say could gain shareholder traction. A prolonged fight may lead to legal challenges, while questions around regulatory approval and deal synergies add further complexity to the streaming industry’s largest potential consolidation in years.

U.S. Clears Nvidia’s H200 Chip Sales to China Under New Revenue-Sharing Deal

President Trump said the U.S. will allow Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to “approved” Chinese customers, provided 25% of the revenue goes to the U.S. government — a sharp increase from the 15% sharing arrangement agreed earlier this year. Trump said President Xi “responded positively,” framing the policy as supportive of U.S. jobs and manufacturing, with similar terms expected for AMD and Intel.

Nvidia shares rose on the approval before paring gains. The decision marks a notable shift in U.S.-China tech policy and adds a new commercial layer to the countries’ AI competition, even as export controls and geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.

Dalio Says Gulf Is Emerging as a Global AI Powerhouse Amid Growing Market Risks

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said the Middle East is rapidly becoming a major global AI hub, comparing the momentum in the UAE and Saudi Arabia to the early energy of Silicon Valley. Massive sovereign-fund investment, global tech partnerships and large-scale cloud and data-center projects are drawing capital and talent to the region.

Dalio also warned that the next two years could be “more precarious” for markets, citing mounting debt pressures, U.S. political polarization and elevated asset valuations. While he views the AI boom as bubble-like, he cautioned investors against exiting prematurely, noting that bubbles typically unwind when liquidity tightens or forced selling begins.

Trump Unveils $12 Billion Aid Package to Cushion Farmers Hit by Trade War

President Trump announced a $12 billion support package for U.S. farmers facing pressure from ongoing trade disputes, particularly with China, which halted major soybean purchases during key harvest months. The plan directs up to $11 billion toward one-time “bridge payments” for row-crop producers, funded by tariff revenues, with another $1 billion held in reserve as market conditions evolve.

While the administration frames the move as a temporary buffer until new trade deals take effect, critics argue the aid fails to offset higher production costs and lost market access. The announcement comes as China’s agricultural imports remain below prior levels despite a tentative trade thaw.

Conclusion

Markets begin the week navigating a complex mix of corporate maneuvering, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving geopolitical forces. Paramount’s challenge to Netflix highlights intensifying competition in media consolidation, while Washington’s conditional approval of Nvidia chip sales to China adds a new dimension to the global tech landscape.

Ray Dalio’s assessment of the Middle East as a rising AI hub underscores the region’s growing strategic importance, even as he warns of broader economic fragilities. Meanwhile, U.S. farm aid reflects ongoing trade tensions and uneven global demand. Together, these developments frame a landscape where policy, innovation and geopolitical risk remain central to investment decisions.

Investment Insights

• Media M&A Dynamics: Paramount’s hostile bid for WBD signals a more competitive and unpredictable phase for media consolidation; investors should expect increased volatility across streaming and content ecosystems as bidding wars raise valuation uncertainty and regulatory risk.
• AI Chip Policy Shift: The U.S. decision to permit Nvidia’s H200 sales to China under a 25% revenue-share model highlights both the opportunity and policy sensitivity in AI semiconductors; positioning should balance upside from expanded markets with the possibility of rapid geopolitical reversals.
• Gulf AI Expansion: The UAE and Saudi Arabia’s emergence as major AI and cloud infrastructure hubs strengthens long-duration themes in data centers, high-performance compute, and sovereign-backed technology investment; treat the region as an increasingly influential capital and innovation base.
• Trade-Exposed Sector Caution: The $12 billion U.S. farm aid package underscores persistent weakness in agricultural trade flows; investors should differentiate between producers with diversified export markets and those still vulnerable to China-linked demand and tariff uncertainty.

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