Key Points

• U.S. Markets in Holding Pattern: Futures remain flat as investors await Fed minutes and PCE inflation data.
• Nvidia Bets on India’s AI Rise: Expanded VC partnerships reinforce India’s strategic role in global AI development.
• Japan Trade Rebounds: January exports jump nearly 17%, led by stronger shipments to China.
• China Consumption Shift: Businesses reposition toward services and experiential spending growth.

February Economic Calendar

Feb 19 — FOMC Meeting Minutes (U.S.): Insight into the Fed’s rate path and inflation outlook.

Feb 20 — U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: High-frequency gauge of labor market resilience.

Feb 20 — Japan CPI: Key inflation reading that could influence Bank of Japan policy stance.

Feb 21 — U.S. PCE Inflation (Monthly/YoY): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric; critical for rate expectations.

Feb 21 — Germany PMI Flash Estimates: Early signal on Eurozone manufacturing and services momentum.

Feb 21 — China Loan Prime Rate Decision: Indicator of credit conditions and domestic growth support.

U.S. Futures Steady as Markets Await Fed Minutes

U.S. stock futures were little changed in overnight trading as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes and Friday’s PCE inflation report. Dow futures slipped 32 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged lower by less than 0.1%. In regular trading, major indexes posted modest gains of roughly 0.1%, even as software stocks such as CrowdStrike and ServiceNow declined amid persistent AI disruption concerns.

Amazon rebounded 1.2%, snapping a nine-day losing streak after shedding nearly 18% and over $450 billion in market value earlier this month. Investors remain in a holding pattern ahead of key inflation data.

Nvidia Expands India AI Push Through VC Partnerships

Nvidia is deepening its commitment to India’s artificial intelligence ecosystem, partnering with leading venture capital firms including Peak XV, Accel India, Elevation Capital, Nexus Venture Partners and Z47 to identify and fund AI startups. The initiative aligns with India’s “IndiaAI” mission and broader government-backed semiconductor and data center investments.

More than 4,000 Indian startups have already joined Nvidia’s global startup program, while collaborations with local cloud providers aim to accelerate sovereign AI infrastructure. The expansion underscores India’s growing role as a strategic AI hub, supported by both domestic capital and global hyperscaler investments exceeding $50 billion.

Japan Exports Surge 17% as China Demand Rebounds

Japan’s exports rose nearly 17% year-over-year in January, driven largely by a sharp rebound in shipments to China, signaling renewed momentum in regional trade flows. The surge reflects stronger demand for machinery and electronic components, offering support to Japan’s manufacturing sector amid global supply chain realignments.

The data reinforces optimism surrounding Japan’s external sector while highlighting China’s continued role as a key trading partner despite broader geopolitical tensions.

China’s Experiences Economy Gains Momentum

Businesses are increasingly pivoting toward China’s growing “experiences economy,” as consumer demand shifts toward travel, entertainment and premium services. The trend reflects Beijing’s broader push to rebalance growth toward domestic consumption, particularly among middle-income households seeking lifestyle upgrades.

Companies are adapting product strategies and marketing models to capture discretionary spending growth, signaling structural changes in China’s post-pandemic consumption landscape.

Conclusion

Global markets remain balanced between policy anticipation and structural growth themes. In the U.S., investors are awaiting clarity from the Federal Reserve amid persistent AI-driven sector rotation. Meanwhile, Asia presents contrasting dynamics: Japan’s export resurgence signals renewed external demand strength, while China’s evolving consumption model highlights deeper economic transformation.

Nvidia’s expanding footprint in India underscores the intensifying global competition for AI leadership and infrastructure dominance. Together, these developments reflect a market environment defined by technological investment cycles, shifting trade flows, and central bank sensitivity to inflation data.

Investment Insights

• Fed Watch = Volatility Risk: Markets remain sensitive to inflation and policy signals; short-term positioning should account for rate-driven swings.
• India’s AI Acceleration: Nvidia’s partnerships reinforce long-term structural growth in India’s semiconductor and data center ecosystem.
• Japan Trade Tailwind: Strong export growth supports selective exposure to manufacturing and capital goods exporters.
• China Consumption Evolution: The pivot toward experiential spending suggests opportunities in travel, entertainment and premium services.