Date Issued – 2nd July 2025
Preview
Ford stunned the industry with a 14.2% sales jump in Q2, far outperforming expectations and rivals, as F-Series trucks and hybrids led the charge. Meanwhile in Washington, Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” barely cleared the Senate with a tie-breaking vote from VP Vance, setting up a tense showdown in the House. On the crypto front, Solana slumped despite the imminent launch of its first U.S.-listed staking ETF. Copper touched a three-month high on signs of a manufacturing rebound in China. In FX, the euro extended its longest winning streak in over 20 years.
Ford Sales Surge 14% in Q2, Crushing Estimates
Ford reported a 14.2% year-over-year increase in second-quarter vehicle sales, significantly outpacing industry forecasts of around 1.4% growth. The automaker delivered 612,095 new vehicles, driven by strong performance in F-Series trucks – their best Q2 since 2019 – and a 23.5% rise in hybrid sales. However, pure EV sales dropped 31.4% year-over-year. For the first half of 2025, Ford sold a record 156,509 electrified vehicles, up 14.7%. Rivals GM, Kia and Hyundai also reported solid gains, but Ford’s results were the most notable in terms of outperformance.
Investment Insight:
Ford’s sharp beat on Q2 sales – especially in high-margin truck and hybrid segments – reinforces the company’s strategic pivot toward hybrid production over fully electric vehicles. With industrywide demand showing signs of deceleration in June, Ford’s aggressive early-quarter sales and hybrid gains position it well if EV demand softens further. Investors may interpret this as a bullish signal for Ford’s adaptability in a tariff-shifting and price-sensitive environment.
Trump’s Megabill Narrowly Passes Senate, Faces House Fight
President Donald Trump’s flagship domestic policy package – the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” – passed the Senate by a razor-thin 51-50 margin, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie. The vote followed a tense, 24-hour amendment marathon. While the Senate’s version includes deeper Medicaid cuts, it now heads to a skeptical House, where Republican hardliners like Rep. Chip Roy remain opposed. With Speaker Mike Johnson able to afford only three defections, the bill’s future remains uncertain ahead of Trump’s self-imposed July 4 deadline.
Investment Insight:
The political wrangling around Trump’s megabill underscores the legislative uncertainty weighing on markets. While fiscal expansion can be stimulative, the Congressional Budget Office’s projection of a $3 trillion deficit increase over a decade raises concerns about long-term debt sustainability. Investors may want to monitor Treasury yields and risk sentiment, as a failed vote could rattle confidence, while passage could add fuel to inflation and rate-cut recalibration narratives.
Solana Slides Below $146 Ahead of ETF Debut
Solana (SOL) dropped 7.84% to $145.08 on July 1, outpacing the broader crypto market’s modest 0.24% dip, despite the imminent launch of the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF – the first U.S.-listed fund offering both SOL exposure and staking rewards. The ETF, set to launch July 2 under the 1940 Act structure, aims to bolster institutional adoption through regulatory clarity and yield integration. Market analysts view the fund as a long-term positive, but SOL’s sharp decline and technical weakness signal traders remain cautious.
Investment Insight:
While the launch of the REX-Osprey SOL ETF marks a structural breakthrough for Solana’s institutional credibility, the pre-launch sell-off reflects near-term uncertainty and typical “sell the news” behavior. The 1940 Act structure and staking yield could make the ETF a long-term catalyst – especially if rivals like VanEck and Bitwise follow suit. Investors may find entry opportunities near accumulation zones around $145, but should remain alert to volatility as crypto markets recalibrate around regulatory and liquidity developments.
Copper Hits 3-Month High on China Recovery
Copper prices surged to a three-month high on Tuesday, with the London Metal Exchange contract touching $10,000 per ton, buoyed by strong end-of-session buying in China. The rally follows a rebound in Chinese factory activity and signs of easing U.S./China trade tensions. Improved manufacturing data points to renewed demand from the world’s largest copper consumer, while ongoing tariff talks may temporarily boost U.S.-bound shipments. Despite tightness easing in London, global supply dynamics remain in flux.
Investment Insight:
Copper’s rally reflects not just China’s industrial rebound, but also speculative flows tied to shifting tariff timelines. If U.S./China negotiations continue to de-escalate, copper demand could remain firm through the summer. Investors should monitor LME spreads and Tom/next signals for signs of renewed tightness. Current levels offer upside for those betting on cyclical recovery and infrastructure-linked demand, particularly if global manufacturing continues to stabilize into Q3.
Euro Surge Extends to Longest Rally Since 2004
The euro is riding its strongest winning streak in over 20 years, briefly touching $1.1806 and marking a near 14% gain against the U.S. dollar in 2025. Fueled by growing conviction that the Fed will ease policy more aggressively than the ECB, options traders are doubling down on bullish bets, with the $1.20 level in sight. While Trump’s megabill and labor data have temporarily supported the dollar, strategists argue the structural decline has resumed amid mounting U.S. fiscal risks and shifting geopolitical focus.
Investment Insight:
The euro’s strength signals a notable realignment in FX markets, as traders hedge against a softening dollar and seek refuge in currencies with stronger macro positioning. With Eurozone inflation stabilizing and ECB policymakers cautiously embracing the rally, EUR/USD may continue its ascent. Watch risk reversals and upcoming Fed comments closely – the next policy steps could push the euro beyond $1.20, particularly if market sentiment holds and U.S. political noise intensifies.
Conclusion
Today’s signals cut across asset classes: demand resilience in U.S. autos, structural bets on Solana staking, and macro-driven flows into copper and the euro. The Senate’s push to deliver Trump’s domestic package before July 4 adds political pressure to already sensitive markets. Momentum in commodities reflects more than supply tightness – it reveals where investors are positioning for policy divergence, trade thaw, and currency realignment.
Upcoming Dates to Watch:
- July 3rd: U.S. Non‑farm Payrolls report at 08:30 GMT
- July 4th: Senate vote on Republican + Debt ceiling bill
- July 6th: OPEC+ Meeting
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
