Date Issued – 4th July 2025
Preview
Markets closed early yesterday ahead of the Independence Day holiday – but not before packing in a wave of headlines. From a strong U.S. jobs report that sent gold prices tumbling and yields rising, to oil demand upgrades and biotech deal rumors shaking up the pharma space, investors had plenty to digest. Meanwhile, equities continued their record-setting rally, fueled by resilient economic data and tech momentum. Balfour’s conviction picks once again proved prescient, with Datadog rallying hard on its S&P 500 inclusion.
Gold Falls as U.S. Jobs Data Bolsters Dollar and Treasury Yields
Gold prices dipped on Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data lifted the dollar and Treasury yields. June’s payrolls came in at 147,000 – well above the 110,000 estimate – while jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since mid-May. The 2 year yield, often seen as a barometer for rate expectations, spiked 8.3 basis points, reflecting a market reassessment of Fed policy easing. The U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.4% and spot gold slid 0.5% to $3,344 per ounce, pressured by rising yields and a more attractive greenback.
Investment Insight:
This jobs print complicates the Fed’s path to easing. With labor remaining resilient and services PMI edging back into expansion territory, bets on near-term rate cuts are fading. Gold’s decline is more than seasonal: it signals market recalibration. Investors banking on looser policy will need to watch tomorrow’s NFP and inflation revisions closely.
Barclays Ups 2025 Brent Forecast to $72 on Stronger Demand Outlook
Barclays raised its Brent oil forecast for 2025 by $6 to $72 per barrel, citing stronger-than-expected demand and tighter supply dynamics. Despite a faster phase-out of OPEC+ voluntary cuts, global inventories declined in Q2 – driven by upward revisions in OECD demand and sluggish non-OPEC supply. The bank also lifted its 2026 forecast to $70 per barrel, reflecting optimism around fundamentals even as geopolitical risk premiums faded after the U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Investment Insight:
The upward revision signals that physical demand is outpacing earlier bearish assumptions – a theme now visible across both OECD consumption and Q2 inventory drawdowns. For investors, the message is clear: structural tightness may persist even in a geopolitically calmer environment. While volatility remains, the path of least resistance in crude seems higher, particularly if OPEC+ under-delivers on production gains.
Summit Surges on Licensing Talks With AstraZeneca Over Keytruda Rival
Summit Therapeutics stock was halted Thursday after reports surfaced that AstraZeneca is in advanced talks to license ivonescimab, Summit’s potential blockbuster lung cancer therapy. The deal, still under negotiation, could see Summit receive billions upfront and as much as $15 billion in total, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. While terms aren’t finalized, the drug has already outperformed Merck’s Keytruda in a late-stage trial, positioning it as a serious contender in the PD-1 inhibitor space.
Investment Insight:
If confirmed, this would mark one of the largest licensing deals in biotech history, signaling AstraZeneca’s aggressive push into oncology and potential disruption of Merck’s dominance. With ivonescimab already showing superior data to Keytruda, the strategic value of this asset cannot be understated. Investors should watch closely: a finalized deal could reshape competitive dynamics in one of pharma’s most lucrative categories.
U.S. Markets Surge as Jobs Data Smashes Forecasts
Stocks rallied sharply Thursday after a strong June jobs report reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy. The Dow climbed 344 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh record highs. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 – well above forecasts – while unemployment ticked down to 4.1%. Treasury yields jumped as traders adjusted their expectations, now seeing little chance of a Fed rate cut in July.
Investment Insight:
The market is choosing resilience over risk, brushing off geopolitical uncertainty and rate cut delays. The labor data provides cover for the Fed to stay put, while investors shift focus to earnings and trade diplomacy. Watch for volatility next week as tariff negotiations approach their July deadline.
Datadog Soars After S&P 500 Inclusion – Balfour Buy Call Pays Off
Shares of Datadog surged over 13% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the company will join the S&P 500 next week, replacing Juniper Networks. The move is set to take effect before the market opens on July 9 and is expected to trigger a wave of institutional buying from index-tracking funds. Names like Robinhood and AppLovin pulled back as Datadog claimed the coveted slot.
Investment Insight:
Balfour Capital Group has been long Datadog since June 17th 2025, at a buy price of $121.93 – and this latest move validates the early conviction. Beyond the passive flows, DDOG’s inclusion reflects fundamental strength and market confidence in its long-term growth story. Keep an eye on price action as index funds rebalance – volatility may offer opportunity.
Conclusion
Macro resilience continues to support equity markets but, under the surface, sector-specific shifts are signaling the next rotation. Energy is tightening, healthcare dealflow is heating up and rate expectations remain volatile. As positioning adjusts post-holiday and eyes turn to the Fed, earnings season and global trade policy, investors should stay agile.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- July 6th: OPEC+ Meeting
- July 8th: RBA Interest Rate Decision
- July 10th: U.S. Jobless Claims
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
