
Date Issued – 20th August 2025
Courtesy of the Research Department at Balfour Capital Group
Key Points
- UK Inflation Rises to 3.8%, Limiting BOE’s Room to Ease: July CPI came in hotter than expected, reinforcing sticky price pressures and reducing prospects for further Bank of England rate cuts this year.
- SoftBank Leads Asian Tech Selloff as Nvidia Slump Ripples Globally: SoftBank shares plunged over 9%, dragging regional tech stocks lower after Nvidia-led declines hit global semiconductor sentiment.
- Trump’s Tariffs Push India Closer to China in Tactical Shift: India deepened engagement with Beijing amid U.S. tariff pressures, though analysts caution the rapprochement remains tactical rather than strategic.
- Amazon Shares Slip as AI Talent Loss Highlights Competitive Pressures: Amazon underperformed peers as AWS growth lagged rivals and a key AI chip leader departed, raising concerns about its AI positioning.
UK Inflation Rises to 3.8%, Limiting BOE’s Room to Ease
UK consumer prices rose 3.8% in July, above expectations of 3.7% and marking the highest annual rate since early 2024, driven by sharp increases in airfares, fuel, and food costs. Core inflation also edged higher to 3.8%, while services inflation accelerated to 5%, underscoring persistent price pressures tied to wages and tax hikes.
The reading challenges the Bank of England’s recent decision to cut rates to 4% and reduces the likelihood of further easing this year. The pound was steady at $1.3489, as investors weighed sticky inflation against signs of modest economic recovery.
SoftBank Leads Asian Tech Selloff as Nvidia Slump Ripples Globally
SoftBank Group shares tumbled 9.2% on Wednesday, dragging Asian tech stocks lower after U.S. peers sold off on weakness in Nvidia. The decline followed SoftBank’s $2 billion investment in Intel, which lifted Intel shares nearly 7% in the U.S. but failed to reassure investors in Japan.
Other Japanese chipmakers including Advantest and Renesas slid, while Taiwan’s TSMC and Foxconn fell 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively, and South Korea’s SK Hynix dropped 3.3%.
The Hang Seng Tech index lost 0.9% with Kuaishou, JD Health, and Horizon Robotics among the worst performers. Samsung bucked the trend, rising 0.8%.
Trump’s Tariffs Push India Closer to China in Tactical Shift
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi underscored warming ties as India seeks to ease trade pressures stemming from U.S. tariffs. Relations have improved since last year’s Xi-Modi meeting, with steps including resumed border trade, plans for direct flights, and expanded access to Chinese exports.
Experts caution, however, that the rapprochement reflects tactical hedging rather than a strategic reset, given unresolved border disputes and Beijing’s ties with Pakistan.
While U.S.-India cooperation remains broad, Trump’s tariffs and accusations over Russian oil purchases have fueled Indian frustration, accelerating short-term alignment with Beijing without altering long-term Indo-Pacific dynamics.
Amazon Shares Slip as AI Talent Loss Highlights Competitive Pressures
Amazon stock fell 1.1% Tuesday as concerns deepened over its lagging AI strategy and slowing cloud momentum. The departure of Rami Sinno, a key architect of AWS’s Trainium and Inferentia chips, to Arm Holdings raised fears of further erosion in Amazon’s AI capabilities.
AWS posted 17% revenue growth in Q2, trailing Microsoft Azure’s 39% and Google Cloud’s 32%, fueling expectations Azure could overtake AWS by 2026.
Despite committing $100 billion to AI and infrastructure this year, Amazon’s initiatives have yet to match peers’ market enthusiasm, leaving the stock underperforming broader tech benchmarks. Analysts remain broadly supportive of long-term prospects.
Conclusion
UK inflation’s hotter-than-expected rise curbs the Bank of England’s flexibility, while SoftBank’s sharp selloff underscores global sensitivity to AI-driven equity swings.
India’s tactical warming with China highlights how U.S. trade policies are reshaping regional alignments without altering long-term Indo-Pacific balances.
Meanwhile, Amazon’s underperformance and talent losses raise questions about its competitive positioning in the accelerating AI race.
Global markets are navigating a complex mix of inflationary pressures, geopolitical shifts, and evolving technology dynamics. Together, these developments reinforce the importance for investors to remain vigilant, balancing near-term volatility with selective positioning in sectors offering resilient, long-term growth potential.
Investment Insights
- UK inflation data reduces the likelihood of near-term BOE easing, suggesting caution on UK rate-sensitive assets and opportunities in inflation-hedged sectors.
- The SoftBank-led tech selloff highlights elevated volatility in AI-linked equities, underscoring the need for disciplined exposure to semiconductors and related supply chains.
- India’s closer engagement with China is a tactical hedge against U.S. tariffs, but enduring Indo-Pacific tensions mean investors should view this as a short-term realignment rather than a structural shift.
- Amazon’s AI talent loss and lagging cloud growth point to competitive headwinds, reinforcing the case for selective positioning in stronger AI and cloud leaders.
Economic Calendar
Date | Event | Why It Matters |
---|---|---|
Wednesday, Aug 20 | FOMC July Meeting Minutes | Offers insight into Fed’s inflation, labor market, and rate path discussions. |
Thursday, Aug 21 | Weekly Jobless Claims & Flash PMI | Early signals of economic momentum, critical ahead of Fed decisions. |
Thursday–Friday, Aug 21–22 | Jackson Hole Economic Symposium | Fed Chair Powell’s remarks may influence market expectations for policymaking. |
Friday, Aug 22 | Powell’s Keynote at Jackson Hole | Highly anticipated address that could significantly sway rate-cut forecasts. |
Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.