Key Points

• OpenAI inks $38B AWS pact, Amazon hits record: OpenAI shifts compute to AWS’s Nvidia GPUs, diversifying beyond Microsoft; AMZN rallies as the deal underscores hyperscaler capex momentum and AI infrastructure scarcity.
• Aramco beats on higher output amid soft crude: Q3 adjusted net income rose to ~$28B; OPEC+ plans modest December hike while pausing further increases in Q1, keeping supply guidance in focus against new Russia sanctions.
• Palantir raises outlook on AI demand: Q3 revenue topped forecasts with U.S. government sales up 52%; FY guidance and FCF outlook increased, though valuation risk remains after a 170% YTD share surge.
• Asia equities retreat on profit-taking, Fed ambiguity: Nikkei, Kospi and CSI 300 pull back from highs as mixed Fed signals and weak ISM data curb December cut odds; dollar spikes then fades, oil and gold edge lower.

Amazon Rallies to Record on $38B OpenAI–AWS Compute Pact

Amazon shares closed 4% higher at a record after OpenAI signed a $38 billion multi-year capacity deal with Amazon Web Services, immediately tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs and securing room to scale through 2026.

The agreement marks OpenAI’s biggest step away from Microsoft’s once-exclusive cloud, following the lapse of Microsoft’s preferential status and parallel cloud tie-ups with Oracle and Google.

For AWS, the win bolsters momentum after >20% YoY growth last quarter and counters faster expansion at Azure and Google Cloud.

The stock’s two-day gain of 14%—its best since November 2022—reflects investor confidence that AI infrastructure demand will drive high-margin cloud revenue.

Aramco Edges Past Estimates as Volume Gains Offset Softer Crude

Saudi Aramco reported Q3 adjusted net income of 104.92 billion riyals ($27.98 billion), narrowly up 0.9% and ahead of the 98.47 billion consensus, as higher output partially offset a weaker price backdrop (WTI and Brent down ~16% and ~12% YTD through September).

Revenue reached 418.16 billion riyals, free cash flow rose to $23.6 billion, and net debt eased to 114.33 billion riyals; the board affirmed a $21.1 billion base dividend plus $0.2 billion performance payout for Q4.

The print lands amid OPEC+’s modest December uplift (+137 kb/d) and a planned pause in Q1 hikes, while new U.S. sanctions on Russian majors complicate supply.

Strategically, Aramco lifted its Petro Rabigh stake to ~60% and added a minority position in AI firm HUMAIN, signaling continued downstream and digital expansion.

Palantir Surges Past Q3 Estimates, Lifts Guidance on AI Momentum

Palantir beat third-quarter forecasts with adjusted EPS of $0.21 versus $0.17 expected and revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% year-on-year, citing surging adoption of its artificial intelligence platform across government and commercial sectors.

U.S. government sales climbed 52% to $486 million, while domestic commercial revenue more than doubled to $397 million, with total contract value quadrupling to $1.31 billion.

The company raised full-year guidance to $4.4 billion in revenue and $1.9–$2.1 billion in free cash flow.

Despite concerns about stretched valuation—shares are up 170% YTD—Palantir’s results underscore its entrenched government ties, expanding commercial reach, and leverage from the AI infrastructure boom.

Asia Stocks Retreat from Record Highs as Profit-Taking, Fed Uncertainty Weigh

Asian equities pulled back sharply from record highs on Tuesday, with investors locking in gains from recent tech-led rallies amid soft U.S. data and uncertainty over further Fed rate cuts.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed early gains to close down 1.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.3% and China’s CSI 300 fell 1.1%.

The U.S. dollar climbed to a nine-month peak versus the yen and a three-month high against the euro before retreating on haven demand.

Diverging signals from Fed officials—some calling for deeper cuts, others urging caution—added to volatility, while weaker ISM manufacturing data deepened growth concerns.

Brent crude slid 0.4% to $64.65 as markets interpreted OPEC+’s Q1 output pause as a sign of potential oversupply.

Conclusion

Tech-driven momentum—fueled by Amazon’s record-setting AI deal and Palantir’s robust outlook—continues to highlight the structural demand for compute infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Aramco’s steady earnings and OPEC+ supply discipline reinforce oil’s stabilization narrative, even as softer prices linger.

In Asia, profit-taking underscored fragility after record highs, while conflicting Fed commentary kept traders guessing on December’s policy path.

Global markets entered the week on a cautious note as investors weighed upbeat corporate results against shifting monetary expectations and geopolitical recalibration. The balance between optimism in corporate innovation and macro restraint remains the key determinant of near-term market direction.

Investment Insights

• Quality over momentum in AI software: Palantir’s beat/raise shows enterprise AI spend consolidating to scaled vendors; favor cash-generative platforms over high-multiple, pre-scale stories.
• Energy cash returns remain resilient: Aramco’s beat amid soft crude underscores low break-evens and shareholder payout capacity; maintain barbelled exposure—integrated majors plus select midstream.
• Trim into Asia’s peak prints: Broad profit-taking after record highs and a firmer dollar argues for tightening risk budgets in North Asia cyclicals.

Economic Calendar

Sources: Investing.com economic calendar; ISM release schedule; ADP release calendar; XTB weekly calendar; ASX RBA Rate Indicator.