Key Points

• Singapore Inflation Surprise: Singapore’s October headline and core inflation both jumped to 1.2% year on year, above expectations and at a near one-year high, complicating an otherwise strong 4%-plus growth outlook.
• India’s IPO Boom: India’s booming IPO market is luring multinationals to list local units at rich valuation premiums, powered by deep domestic liquidity from mutual funds and retail SIP investors.
• China’s African Strategy Shift: China’s role in Africa is pivoting from state-led infrastructure and resources to private consumer goods, with exports to the continent up 28% and more firms exploring local production.
• Global Market Optimism: Global equities started the week firmer as markets price a roughly 60% chance of a December Fed cut, weakening the dollar against most majors even as the yen stays under pressure.

Singapore Inflation Surprise Complicates Otherwise Strong Growth Story

Singapore’s October inflation rose more than expected, with both headline and core CPI climbing to 1.2% year on year, their highest since August 2024 and well above economists’ forecasts.

The upside surprise was driven by higher transport and health costs and firmer services, food and retail prices, even as overall demand remains cautious.

The data follow an upgrade to Singapore’s 2025 growth forecast to 4% and robust Q3 GDP of 4.2%, but authorities still expect inflation to average 0.5%–1% next year before drifting above 1% in 2026, as fare hikes, green levies and easier financial conditions gradually add price pressure.

India’s IPO Boom Draws Multinationals Seeking Valuation Premium

India’s buoyant IPO market is attracting a growing list of global companies eager to list their local units and tap rich valuation premiums supported by deep domestic liquidity.

Recent deals such as LG Electronics India and Siemens Energy India highlight how Indian subsidiaries can trade at multiples several times those of their parents, despite lower earnings, as investors price in faster local growth and strong governance.

Robust mutual fund inflows, the popularity of SIPs and rising retail participation are enabling larger, fully subscribed offerings, often via secondary sales, allowing multinationals to unlock value and monetize stakes while still retaining control.

China Pivots from African Infrastructure to Consumer-Led Expansion

China’s engagement in Africa is shifting from state-led infrastructure and resource projects toward private-sector consumer businesses, as exports of higher value-added goods to the continent jumped 28% year on year in the first three quarters of 2025.

Large brands such as Transsion, Huawei and Midea are expanding alongside a wave of smaller entrepreneurs targeting fast-growing, urbanizing markets in electronics, household items and basic consumer goods.

While rising imports risk widening trade imbalances and pressuring local manufacturing, Beijing-linked investors are increasingly exploring local production hubs, aiming to pair African demand growth with onshore manufacturing and preferential access to U.S. and European markets.

Global Stocks Firm as Markets Lean into December Fed Cut

Global equities started the week higher, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, even as officials remain divided and data gaps from the recent U.S. government shutdown cloud the outlook.

European stocks climbed, with the Stoxx 600 rebounding after last week’s tech-driven losses, while U.S. futures and Asia-Pacific indices also advanced.

Fed funds futures now imply around a 60% chance of a 25 bp cut next month, echoing Goldman Sachs’ call for further easing into mid-2026, though some economists warn markets are pricing too many cuts.

The softer dollar versus most majors, a still-weak yen, lower Brent crude and steady gold underscore a cautious but constructive risk tone ahead of key U.S. retail and producer price data and the U.K. budget later this week.

Conclusion

Market signals point to a global cycle that is still expanding, but with increasingly uneven contours.

Singapore’s upside inflation surprise tempers an otherwise solid growth upgrade, hinting at future price pressures as activity and policy supports build.

India’s IPO boom and premium valuations for multinational subsidiaries underline how deep domestic liquidity can reshape global capital allocation.

China’s pivot toward Africa’s consumer markets highlights shifting trade and production geographies.

Overarching it all, markets are leaning into a December Fed cut, supporting risk assets for now but leaving investors exposed if policy or inflation data disappoint.

Investment Insights

• Asia Macro Allocation: Singapore’s stronger inflation alongside upgraded growth argues for selective exposure to sectors benefiting from regional trade and services, while monitoring MAS policy signals and future fare/tax-driven price pressures.
• India Equity Strategy: The valuation premium for Indian subsidiaries supports a structural overweight to India, but late-cycle IPO exuberance suggests focusing on quality franchises and avoiding purely multiple-driven stories.
• China–Africa Theme: The pivot from infrastructure to consumer-led engagement creates opportunities in African consumption and logistics, but export-heavy models face political and FX risk unless backed by credible local production.
• Rates and FX Positioning: With markets banking on a December Fed cut, duration and high-quality equities benefit tactically, yet investors should hedge against fewer cuts than priced and ongoing yen vulnerability.

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