Key Points

• U.S. Markets Pause Near Records: U.S. equity futures steadied as investors awaited the December jobs report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, with the S&P 500 holding weekly gains despite a rotation away from technology stocks.
• Greenland Minerals Hype Meets Reality: Renewed U.S. interest in Greenland’s critical minerals sparked sharp rallies in related stocks, though experts cautioned that low-grade deposits, high costs and reliance on Chinese processing limit near-term strategic or commercial impact.
• Samsung Profits Surge on AI Memory Boom: Samsung Electronics forecast a near three-fold quarterly profit jump as memory prices surged on strong AI-driven demand, underscoring tight supply conditions across global semiconductor markets.
• Asia Defense Stocks Outperform as China Data Mixed: Asian markets were mixed after China’s CPI rose to a near three-year high, but defense stocks rallied sharply amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, highlighting selective investor demand for security-linked sectors.

January Economic Calendar

Markets Pause Ahead of Jobs Data and Tariff Ruling

U.S. equity futures were little changed as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of Friday’s December jobs report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Markets have been digesting mixed signals, with expectations for modest payroll growth and a slight dip in the unemployment rate reinforcing a still-cooling but resilient labor market.

In regular trading, sector rotation was evident as technology shares eased while the Dow outperformed, leaving major indexes on track for a positive week. Investor attention is also focused on policy uncertainty around trade and housing finance, underscoring a wait-and-see approach as markets balance solid near-term momentum against key macro and policy catalysts.

U.S. Weighs Strategic Investment in Greenland Minerals

The U.S. government is considering investing in critical minerals projects in Greenland as part of a broader effort to secure supply chains and reduce reliance on China, according to comments from the CEO of Amaroq. Discussions remain preliminary but could include offtake agreements, infrastructure support and credit facilities, highlighting Washington’s growing focus on securing access to strategically important materials such as copper, gold, germanium and gallium.

The talks come amid heightened geopolitical attention on Greenland, which the White House views as strategically significant for both defense and critical minerals. While questions remain around economic viability and infrastructure challenges, improving access and changing climate conditions are increasing investor interest in the Arctic island’s resource potential.

China Inflation Ticks Up as Demand Remains Fragile

China’s consumer inflation accelerated to a near three-year high in December, underscoring a modest pickup in spending ahead of the New Year holiday, while deeper structural demand weakness persisted. Data from National Bureau of Statistics showed consumer prices rising 0.8% year on year, driven largely by food costs, even as core inflation held steady at a subdued 1.2%.

Producer prices fell 1.9% from a year earlier, extending a deflationary streak of more than three years despite some stabilization in industrial inputs. For 2025 as a whole, inflation remained flat, missing Beijing’s target and highlighting the limited impact of stimulus measures as households stay cautious amid property stress, weak employment confidence and persistent excess capacity.

Asian Defense Stocks Lead as Markets Digest China Inflation Data

Asian markets traded mixed as investors weighed China’s December inflation data against persistent geopolitical tensions, with defense stocks leading regional gains. South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace surged as much as 11%, extending a rally across defense names in Japan and South Korea as security concerns remained elevated following recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and renewed rhetoric around Greenland.

China’s equities were steady after consumer inflation rose 0.8% year on year, while producer prices remained in deflation, reinforcing concerns over uneven domestic demand. Japan outperformed, supported by strong earnings from Fast Retailing, while mining stocks slid after early merger talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore. In the U.S., rotation out of technology weighed on the Nasdaq ahead of key jobs data and a potential tariff ruling.

Conclusion

Markets closed the week balancing solid underlying momentum with heightened macro and geopolitical crosscurrents. U.S. equities remain resilient near record levels as investors look beyond short-term headlines toward earnings durability, policy clarity and labor market trends.

At the same time, strategic competition around critical minerals and defense continues to drive sector-specific volatility, while Asia reflects a more selective risk appetite amid mixed growth signals from China. The divergence between cyclical optimism, AI-led technology strength, and renewed interest in defensive assets underscores a market environment defined less by broad direction and more by disciplined positioning, diversification and attention to fundamentals as 2026 unfolds.

Investment Insights

• Maintain selective equity exposure: U.S. equities remain supported by earnings resilience and policy expectations, but elevated valuations argue for quality bias and disciplined risk management rather than broad market chasing.
• Position for geopolitical tailwinds, not headlines: Defense and critical minerals may benefit structurally from strategic competition, but investors should distinguish long-term supply-chain realities from short-term political-driven rallies.
• Stay cautious on China-linked cyclicals: Persistent producer deflation and weak domestic demand suggest limited near-term upside despite modest inflation rebounds, favoring selective exposure over broad allocation.
• Balance growth with defensives: Continued rotation into defensives alongside AI-driven growth highlights the value of diversified portfolios as macro uncertainty remains elevated.