Key Points

• Japan GDP Rebounds, But Misses Forecasts: Q4 growth of 0.1% avoids recession but underwhelms expectations, reinforcing cautious optimism in Japanese markets.
• OpenAI Strengthens AI Agent Strategy: OpenClaw’s creator joins OpenAI as AI agents become core to enterprise automation competition.
• TikTok Stabilizes U.S. Operations: Regulatory restructuring eases uncertainty, supporting platform continuity and advertiser confidence.
• India Positions for AI Leadership: Global tech CEOs gather in New Delhi as India advances its artificial intelligence strategy.

February Economic Calendar

Feb 18 — U.S. Retail Sales (Monthly): Measures consumer spending strength, a primary driver of U.S. GDP and a key indicator for Fed policy calibration.

Feb 18 — Eurozone CPI (Final): Confirms inflation trajectory and shapes European Central Bank rate expectations.

Feb 19 — U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: High-frequency labor data offering insight into employment stability and wage pressure trends.

Feb 19 — U.S. Industrial Production: Tracks manufacturing output and capacity utilization, signaling business investment momentum.

Feb 20 — Japan CPI: Critical inflation reading that may influence Bank of Japan policy normalization discussions.

Feb 20 — UK Retail Sales: Key gauge of UK consumer resilience and Bank of England policy implications.

Feb 21 — China Loan Prime Rate Decision: Impacts credit conditions, property sector activity, and broader Chinese growth outlook.

Feb 21 — U.S. Fed Speakers (Various Officials): Commentary may influence rate expectations and near-term equity and bond market volatility.

Japan Avoids Recession as Growth Rebounds Modestly

Japan’s economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter, expanding 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, narrowly avoiding a technical recession after a 0.7% contraction in Q3. However, the rebound fell short of the 0.4% expansion expected by economists. Annualized growth came in at just 0.2%, well below forecasts of 1.6%.

Private consumption supported the modest expansion, offsetting weakness in exports and public spending. Following the release, the Nikkei 225 rose slightly while the yen weakened to 153.06 against the dollar. The data reinforces expectations of continued accommodative policy from the Bank of Japan.

OpenClaw Creator Joins OpenAI as AI Agent Race Intensifies

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced that OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger is joining the company, with the viral AI agent set to operate as an open-source foundation within OpenAI. AI agents capable of autonomously managing tasks have rapidly gained traction among businesses and consumers.

Altman indicated the technology will become central to OpenAI’s product offerings as competition intensifies with rivals such as Anthropic and Google. The move underscores accelerating consolidation and aggressive talent acquisition in the generative AI sector, where valuations and capital deployment continue to expand.

TikTok U.S. Venture Stabilizes After Early Regulatory Uncertainty

TikTok’s U.S. joint venture appears to have regained operational stability following a period of regulatory scrutiny and political pressure. The restructuring framework aims to address national security concerns while preserving user growth and advertiser engagement.

Early concerns over potential forced divestment have eased, providing greater clarity for partners and investors. The development highlights how major technology platforms are adapting governance structures to navigate geopolitical risks while protecting market access and monetization strategies.

India AI Summit Signals Strategic Push for Global Tech Leadership

China’s automotive landscape saw a major domestic EV victory as Xiaomi’s electric SUV surged past Tesla’s Model Y in January sales, selling roughly twice as many units. This reflects intensifying competition within global EV markets and underscores China’s manufacturing scale and pricing strategy advantages in electrified transport.

Investors tracking auto supply chains and EV material demand may need to reassess exposure within evolving tech and consumables sectors.

Conclusion

Global markets are navigating a mix of cautious economic stabilization and accelerating technological transformation. Japan’s modest rebound highlights fragile but improving growth conditions, while AI consolidation signals intensifying competition among technology leaders.

Regulatory adaptation remains a defining theme, from TikTok’s U.S. restructuring to India’s strategic AI ambitions. Investors are balancing macroeconomic moderation with structural innovation trends that continue to reshape capital allocation. As policy frameworks evolve and digital infrastructure expands, market leadership may increasingly favor regions and firms positioned at the intersection of growth resilience and technological advancement.

Investment Insights

Japan Growth Stabilizes, Policy Remains Supportive: Japan’s narrow avoidance of recession reinforces expectations for continued accommodative policy, supporting selective exposure to exporters and domestic cyclicals benefiting from yen weakness.

AI Consolidation Accelerates: OpenAI’s recruitment of OpenClaw’s creator highlights intensifying competition in AI agents, reinforcing long-term structural opportunities in enterprise automation and digital infrastructure.

Platform Regulation Is Becoming Strategic: TikTok’s stabilized U.S. structure underscores how geopolitical oversight is reshaping technology governance—investors should monitor regulatory risk premiums across global platforms.

India’s AI Push Signals Emerging-Market Opportunity: The AI Impact Summit reflects India’s ambition to expand its digital ecosystem, potentially unlocking investment opportunities in cloud infrastructure, semiconductors, and public-private tech partnerships.