Key Points

• Tariff Shock Returns: President Trump raised global tariffs to 15% effective immediately, reigniting inflation and growth concerns and sending Dow futures down roughly 300 points.
• China’s Leverage Strengthens: The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down key tariff authorities weakens Washington’s negotiating power ahead of the April Trump-Xi summit.
• Asia Defies Volatility: South Korea’s Kospi hit a record high and Hong Kong equities surged over 2%, signaling regional resilience despite renewed U.S. trade escalation.
• Risk Assets Reprice Quickly: Bitcoin fell more than 3% and oil prices softened as investors recalibrated risk exposure amid heightened policy uncertainty.

February Economic Calendar

• Feb 24 — U.S. Durable Goods Orders: Measures business investment momentum and manufacturing demand.
• Feb 25 — U.S. Consumer Confidence: Provides insight into household sentiment amid rising trade uncertainty.
• Feb 26 — U.S. New Home Sales: Signals housing market resilience and rate sensitivity.
• Feb 27 — U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly labor market gauge ahead of broader employment data.
• Feb 28 — U.S. Core PCE Inflation: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, critical for rate expectations.

Markets Slide as Tariff Uncertainty Resurfaces and Global Trade Risks Deepen

U.S. equities faced renewed pressure after President Donald Trump announced an immediate increase in global tariffs to 15%, up from 10%, just days after the Supreme Court struck down a broad swath of his prior trade measures. Dow futures fell roughly 300 points (-0.6%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7% and nearly 1%, respectively.

Oil prices declined modestly, and Bitcoin slid more than 3%, reflecting a broader risk-off shift. Investors are recalibrating inflation expectations and global growth forecasts as trade uncertainty re-enters center stage.

China Gains Leverage After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate key tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act has strengthened Beijing’s negotiating hand ahead of a high-stakes Trump-Xi summit scheduled for April. Analysts suggest the ruling weakens Washington’s immediate trade leverage while potentially reshaping the dynamics of tariff negotiations, agricultural purchases, and export controls.

China’s Commerce Ministry said it is assessing the ruling’s implications, while markets weigh how the legal setback alters U.S.-China trade strategy moving forward.

Asia Markets Rally Despite Trade Shock

Asia-Pacific markets brushed off the tariff escalation, with South Korea’s Kospi rising for a third straight session to a fresh record high. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped more than 2%, while Australia’s ASX 200 edged higher. Markets in China and Japan were closed for holidays.

Investors appeared encouraged by the Supreme Court ruling’s reduction in certain tariff rates, even as Trump signaled additional levies could follow. The divergence highlights regional resilience amid U.S. policy volatility.

Crypto and Commodities Reflect Risk Reset

Bitcoin fell below $65,000 at one point, down over 5% intraday, as traders treated the tariff escalation as a macro risk event rather than a crypto-specific shock. Oil prices also softened, with Brent crude slipping toward $71 per barrel and WTI near $66, reversing earlier gains.

Analysts note that digital assets are increasingly behaving as high-beta risk instruments tied to liquidity conditions and macro uncertainty rather than defensive alternatives.

Conclusion

Markets are navigating a renewed phase of trade uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down key tariff measures and President Trump’s swift move to raise global duties to 15%. The legal setback has shifted negotiating leverage toward China ahead of critical diplomatic talks, while equity and crypto markets reflect heightened macro sensitivity.

Although Asian markets showed resilience, U.S. futures signal caution as investors reassess inflation risk, supply chain pressures, and the broader growth outlook. With trade policy once again at the forefront, near-term volatility is likely to remain elevated.

Investment Insights

• Trade Volatility Returns: Renewed tariff escalation may pressure multinational equities and inflation-sensitive sectors.
• China Leverage Shift: Legal constraints on U.S. tariffs could alter trade negotiation dynamics ahead of the April summit.
• Asia Showing Relative Strength: Record highs in Korea and gains in Hong Kong suggest regional resilience despite global policy shocks.
• Risk Assets Sensitive to Policy: Bitcoin and high-beta equities continue to react sharply to macro and trade developments.