Key Points

• SoftBank Sinks Over 10%: A Nvidia-led selloff hit Asia’s chip complex, dragging down major suppliers like SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC, and Foxconn in a broad AI hardware de-risking.
• Nvidia’s Rally Reverses: Despite a 62% revenue jump and strong guidance, Nvidia stock closed nearly 3% lower, signaling valuation fatigue even as the company denied “AI bubble” fears.
• Asia-Pacific Indices Tumble: The Nikkei 225 and Kospi dropped as stronger U.S. jobs data and firm Japanese inflation undercut rate-cut hopes.
• Europe Follows AI Reversal: European equities opened lower as chipmakers and defense stocks fell on AI-related volatility and Ukraine peace headlines.

Nvidia-Led Selloff Hits Asian Chip Complex

Asian semiconductor stocks sold off sharply after Nvidia’s overnight drop, despite the U.S. chipmaker’s strong results and upbeat guidance, underscoring how AI leaders have become focal points for broader risk-off moves. SoftBank tumbled over 10% in Tokyo, reflecting concerns around Arm and its wider AI exposure, while key Nvidia suppliers also slumped: SK Hynix fell 8.76%, Samsung Electronics 5.77%, TSMC 4.81% and Foxconn 4.86%. Smaller component and equipment names from Renesas to Tokyo Electron and Advantest also weakened, as investors reacted to tighter financial conditions, delayed Fed cut expectations and growing debate over a potential AI bubble.

Nvidia’s Post-Earnings Surge Fades as AI Rally Pauses

Nvidia’s shares reversed an early gain of up to 5% to close nearly 3% lower, despite delivering a 62% year-on-year jump in revenue to $57.01 billion and issuing stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance. On the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang pushed back against “AI bubble” concerns and management addressed key bear arguments around demand durability, supply constraints, financing and China, prompting many analysts to highlight the strength of the quarter even as some, like Deutsche Bank, kept a neutral stance. The initial optimism lifted AI-related names from AMD and Broadcom to power infrastructure stocks such as Eaton, but these gains also faded as the broader market turned risk-off.

Asia Equities Slide as AI Reversal and Rate Doubts Hit Risk Appetite

Asia-Pacific markets tracked Wall Street’s sharp reversal in AI-related stocks, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 2.4% and South Korea’s Kospi off 3.79% as tech heavyweights led the decline. SoftBank plunged over 10%, while names such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw losses of 5%–12%, reflecting a broad de-risking across the chip and tech complex. Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data cut the implied probability of a December Fed rate cut to around 40%, pressuring growth and duration-sensitive assets. Regional sentiment was further tested by firmer Japanese core inflation, which keeps the Bank of Japan under pressure to tighten policy.

European Stocks Slip as AI Volatility and Ukraine Peace Headlines Weigh on Sentiment

European equities opened lower, with the Stoxx 600 down around 0.75% as U.S. tech volatility and the global AI valuation reset continued to ripple across markets. Chip-linked names led declines, with BE Semiconductor, ASMI and ASML falling roughly 4–5% in early trade, mirroring the overnight selloff in Nvidia and the sharp pullback in Asian semiconductors. Defense stocks also came under pressure, with the Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense index off about 2.8% as reports of a possible Ukraine peace framework prompted profit-taking in names like Renk, Rheinmetall and Hensoldt. At the same time, investors are digesting a mixed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and sharply reduced odds of a December Fed rate cut while awaiting fresh U.K. retail and euro area manufacturing data for further guidance on growth and policy.

Conclusion

Market price action over the past 24 hours reflects an AI trade that is still fundamentally supported by earnings, but increasingly vulnerable to valuation pressure, policy uncertainty and position crowding. Nvidia’s strong results were not enough to prevent a sharp reversal across global semiconductors, dragging Asian tech benchmarks and European chipmakers lower, while SoftBank’s double-digit decline underscored sensitivity to AI sentiment. Fading expectations for a near-term Fed cut and shifting headlines on Ukraine are feeding volatility. For investors, selectivity, liquidity awareness and disciplined risk management remain more important than directional AI or rate bets.

Investment Insights

• AI Exposure: Treat leading AI hardware names as core but volatile holdings; consider staggered entry points and defined risk limits rather than momentum-driven allocation.
• Regional Balance: The synchronized selloff across U.S., Asia and Europe argues for diversified exposure across regions and along the AI value chain (chips, software, infrastructure), rather than concentration in a few marquee stocks.
• Macro Sensitivity: Fading Fed cut expectations and firmer Japanese inflation show that AI valuations remain highly rate-sensitive; duration risk and equity risk should be managed together, not in isolation.
• Hedging & Liquidity: Elevated intraday reversals favor maintaining liquidity buffers and using hedges (volatility, defensives, quality balance sheets) instead of binary “all-in” AI or growth trades.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 21, 2025	U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final), U.K. & Canada Retail Sales	Key read on U.S. household confidence and major retail sectors in the U.K. and Canada, shaping views on global consumption momentum and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending / PCE	Combines growth, investment and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge into one session, critical for recalibrating U.S. rate expectations and global risk premia.
November 27, 2025	Japan Tokyo CPI	A key leading indicator of Japanese inflation that guides Bank of Japan policy signals and influences yen dynamics and global bond markets.
November 28, 2025	German CPI & Retail Sales, Swiss GDP, Canadian GDP	Updates on eurozone core strength and Swiss/Canadian growth, important for gauging non-U.S. demand, ECB trajectory and cross-currency positioning.
November 30, 2025	China Official Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs	High-frequency snapshot of Chinese activity that sets the tone for Asian equities, commodities, and global growth sentiment into December.

Key Points

• Nvidia OpenAI Pact Uncertainty: Nvidia flagged “no assurance” that its headline $100 billion OpenAI investment will be finalized, underscoring contract and execution risk even as both firms drive a $1.4 trillion AI infrastructure buildout.
• Singapore-Nasdaq Dual Listing: Singapore Exchange’s new dual-listing bridge with Nasdaq aims to boost liquidity and global access for large-cap issuers via a single rulebook and review, backed by MAS capital injections and incentives for local equities.
• Nvidia Earnings Beat: Nvidia shares rose after the company beat Q3 expectations and guided for ~$65 billion in next-quarter revenue, with data center sales up sharply and management signaling “sold out” cloud GPU demand and $500 billion in AI chip orders.
• Fed Split on Rate Path: Fed minutes revealed a sharp split over the October rate cut and skepticism about a December move, with “many” officials favoring no further cuts in 2025, reinforcing a more uncertain and data-dependent easing path.

Nvidia Tempers Expectations on $100bn OpenAI Pact

Nvidia reminded investors in its latest quarterly filing that there is “no assurance” it will finalize the previously announced $100 billion AI infrastructure partnership with OpenAI, underlining the difference between headline announcements and binding contracts.

The disclosure comes two months after the two companies unveiled an ambitious plan for Nvidia to fund OpenAI data centers from 2026, with an initial $10 billion tranche tied to gigawatt-scale capacity buildout.

At the same time, OpenAI has locked in a signed agreement with AMD to deploy 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs, including stock warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, signaling a deliberate move to diversify chip suppliers.

While Nvidia’s management continues to describe OpenAI as a “once-in-a-generation company” and is targeting support for at least 10 gigawatts of OpenAI data centers, the caveats around the pact highlight contractual and execution risk in the AI capex cycle, even as both firms race to finance an announced $1.4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending.

Singapore-Nasdaq Dual Listing Bridge Aims to Lift SGX Competitiveness

Singapore Exchange is partnering with Nasdaq to create a “Global Listing Board” for companies above S$2 billion in market value, allowing a single set of documents and a streamlined review to support dual listings across both markets by mid-2026.

The move is part of a broader push by Singapore to boost its equity market’s appeal through deeper liquidity, round-the-clock price discovery, and access to both U.S. dollar and Singapore dollar investors.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore is complementing this with a S$30 million “Value Unlock” package to strengthen corporates’ capital markets capabilities and a S$2.85 billion mandate to local asset managers to drive participation in Singapore equities.

Equity turnover has already risen, with average daily trading volume up 16% year on year in Q3 2025 and IPOs raising over S$2 billion so far this year, though analysts caution that SGX’s lower liquidity versus Nasdaq and the need for stronger corporate action remain key constraints.

The STI’s roughly 30% gain since the 2024 equities review lags the near 60% rallies seen in Japan and South Korea following their reform pushes, underscoring both the progress made and the re-rating potential still contingent on further reforms and governance improvements.

Nvidia Extends AI Lead with Strong Quarter and Bullish Outlook

Nvidia shares climbed after the chipmaker delivered another stronger-than-expected quarter and raised its sales outlook, reinforcing confidence in the durability of the AI investment cycle.

Fiscal third-quarter revenue rose to $57.01 billion, ahead of forecasts, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.30, while net income jumped 65% year on year to $31.91 billion.

Data center revenue surged 66% to $51.2 billion, driven largely by demand for its Blackwell-based GPUs and networking products, as CEO Jensen Huang said “cloud GPUs are sold out” and highlighted $500 billion of AI chip orders for 2025–2026.

Nvidia now guides for about $65 billion in current-quarter sales, well above analyst expectations, supported by rising AI capital spending at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, even as export controls and intensifying competition weigh on China sales.

Alongside double-digit growth in gaming, visualization and robotics, and $12.5 billion of share buybacks, the results signal that AI infrastructure spending remains robust, with supply constraints and geopolitical risks the main checks on an otherwise powerful earnings story.

Fed Minutes Reveal Sharp Split on Rate Path After October Cut

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting show policymakers deeply divided over the need for further easing after approving a quarter-point cut to 3.75%–4%, casting doubt on the widely expected December move.

While several officials saw another reduction in December as appropriate if the economy evolves as they expect, “many” favored keeping rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, reflecting concern that inflation has shown “little sign” of returning sustainably to the 2% target.

The debate centers on how restrictive policy really is, with doves focused on a slowing labor market and hawks worried about undermining disinflation progress.

The split along with the impact of a 44-day government data blackout, has shifted market pricing: traders now see only about a one-in-three chance of a December cut and higher odds of action in early 2026, reinforcing the message that the Fed’s next steps are data-dependent and contested rather than on a preset easing path.

Conclusion

This week’s developments highlight a market still anchored by AI-driven capital spending but increasingly attentive to policy and execution risk.

Nvidia’s outstanding results and multi-year order book reinforce the depth of the AI infrastructure cycle, even as its proposed $100 billion pact with OpenAI underscores how headlines can outpace binding commitments.

Singapore’s dual-listing bridge with Nasdaq and fresh MAS incentives show policymakers competing to attract equity capital and liquidity.

At the same time, divided Fed minutes and fading odds of a December cut remind investors that monetary policy remains contested, keeping rates, risk premia and valuations firmly data-dependent.

Investment Insights

• AI infrastructure: Nvidia’s earnings strength and multi-year order backlog suggest the AI capex cycle remains intact; investors may focus on ecosystem beneficiaries (chips, networking, data centers) while discounting headline deal risk.
• Equity venue selection: Singapore’s dual-listing bridge with Nasdaq could improve liquidity and valuation for Asia-focused large caps; global investors should monitor SGX-listed names positioned to benefit from increased cross-border flows.
• Policy and rates: Fed divisions point to a slower, more conditional easing path; duration and rate-sensitive assets may remain volatile, favoring selective rather than broad-based yield-curve positioning.
• Risk management: Elevated policy uncertainty and execution risk argue for disciplined diversification across regions, sectors and factor exposures rather than concentrated AI or rate-cut bets.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 21, 2025	U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final), U.K. & Canada Retail Sales	Key read on U.S. household confidence and major retail sectors in the U.K. and Canada, shaping views on global consumption momentum and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending / PCE	Combines growth, investment and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge into one session, critical for recalibrating U.S. rate expectations and global risk premia.
November 27, 2025	Japan Tokyo CPI	A key leading indicator of Japanese inflation that guides Bank of Japan policy signals and influences yen dynamics and global bond markets.
November 28, 2025	German CPI & Retail Sales, Swiss GDP, Canadian GDP	Updates on eurozone core strength and Swiss/Canadian growth, important for gauging non-U.S. demand, ECB trajectory and cross-currency positioning.
November 30, 2025	China Official Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs	High-frequency snapshot of Chinese activity that sets the tone for Asian equities, commodities, and global growth sentiment into December.

Key Points

• Hong Kong IPO window reopens: A rebound in listings and a 28% YTD Hang Seng rally are giving China-focused private equity long-awaited exit routes and improving sentiment toward discounted consumer assets.
• Europe’s rare earths dependency: Despite new EU plans to diversify, the bloc remains heavily reliant on China for rare earth magnets, leaving auto, wind and defense supply chains exposed in the near term.
• EQT doubles down on Asia: The private-markets giant is scaling investment across the region, targeting early-stage China and domestic-demand sectors (services, software, education) less tied to geopolitics.
• Caution into Nvidia/Fed minutes: U.S. futures edge lower as investors await Nvidia’s results and Fed minutes, with questions over AI valuations and softer odds of a December rate cut tempering risk appetite.

Hong Kong IPO Rebound Opens Exit Path for China-Focused PE

Hong Kong’s IPO revival is unlocking long-stalled exits for China-invested private equity funds, with $18.2B raised year-to-date through October and the Hang Seng up over 28%—well ahead of the S&P 500.

Managers say cheaper valuations and early signs of stabilizing consumer demand are drawing capital back to China, allowing investors to “buy growth at a discount” in leading domestic brands.

While M&A remains muted and onshore listings tightly controlled, Hong Kong provides a practical outlet, though a 300-plus application backlog may slow timelines.

Regulators’ promises to streamline offshore listings are a tailwind, but execution speed will be key.

Europe’s Rare Earth Reality: Reliance on China Persists Despite New Plans

Europe remains heavily exposed to China for rare earths and magnets used in EVs, wind turbines and defense, even as Brussels launches its “RESourceEU” plan to diversify through recycling, joint buying, stockpiles and new partnerships.

China still controls ~59% of mining, 91% of refining and 94% of magnet manufacturing, while the EU imports ~70% of rare earths, and nearly all magnets from China.

A one-year suspension of Chinese export controls buys time, but Europe lacks mining/refining capacity and faces slow approvals.

Early moves such as Estonia’s new magnet plant signal progress, yet supply-chain resilience will take years to build.

EQT Ramps Up Asia, Targets Early-Stage China and Domestic Demand Plays

EQT is expanding its Asia footprint, calling the region a key growth engine across private equity and infrastructure. After raising over $10B for its latest Asia fund and planning a ~$930M investment in Korea’s Douzone Bizon, the firm says on-the-ground presence is essential to capture local opportunities.

While large buyouts in China remain challenging, EQT sees stronger potential in early-stage deals tied to domestic demand: services, software, education, and financial services, reducing exposure to geopolitics.

Leadership also downplayed reliance on falling interest rates, pointing to recent exits and distributions as evidence of an “all-weather” approach focused on value creation.

Futures Slip Ahead of Nvidia Results and Fed Minutes

U.S. equity futures turned lower early Wednesday as investors stayed cautious before Nvidia’s earnings and the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes.

Tech remained under pressure on concerns that AI-driven valuations are stretched; Nvidia fell 2.8% Tuesday, with AMD, TSMC, Amazon, Microsoft and Palantir also weaker.

Retail lagged after Home Depot’s miss, pulling Lowe’s and Walmart lower ahead of their reports.

Rate-cut odds for December eased to ~43%, with delays to key data leaving policymakers with less visibility.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures slipped 0.2%–0.3%, while markets await Thursday’s delayed September payrolls for labor-market cues.

Conclusion

Markets are sending mixed signals.

On one hand, Hong Kong’s IPO revival is reopening exit paths for China-focused private equity and nudging sentiment toward discounted domestic consumption stories.

On the other, Europe’s heavy reliance on China for rare earths underscores persistent strategic supply risks.

Large allocators like EQT are leaning into Asia; especially early-stage, domestic-demand assets, while public markets turn cautious ahead of Nvidia’s results and the Fed minutes as odds of a December rate cut fade.

Positioning should emphasize quality cash flows, selective Asia exposure, and vigilance on supply-chain policy, with dry powder ready for opportunities created by earnings and data volatility.

Investment Insights

• Asia reopens for exits: Hong Kong’s IPO revival is easing bottlenecks for China-focused private equity. This supports valuation discovery and could recycle capital into new deals.
• Domestic demand > cross-border risk: In Asia, focus on businesses tied to local consumers (healthcare, education, software, services) that are less exposed to geopolitical swings.
• Supply chains still fragile: Europe’s reliance on China for rare earths remains a strategic weak point. Prioritize companies with diversified sourcing or credible plans to localize key inputs.
• AI enthusiasm, disciplined entry: With attention on Nvidia’s results and high expectations, favor firms with clear cash generation and practical AI adoption over headline promises.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate) & Key Data Cluster (Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales)	Dense data slate testing U.S. growth and consumer momentum into year-end; pivotal for rate expectations and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Statement (Budget)	Fiscal measures shaping the U.K.’s growth/inflation mix ahead of the next BoE decision; implications for gilts and sterling.
December 9–10, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Press Conference	Sets the policy tone for the dollar, yields, and global assets; guidance into 2026 will drive equity and credit positioning.
December 17–18, 2025	European Central Bank Governing Council (Rate Decision & Projections)	Fresh forecasts and guidance for the euro area; key for euro, bunds, and European equity risk premia.

Key Points

• India–U.S. energy pivot: New LPG deal (≈10% of India’s imports) and higher U.S. crude purchases signal a thaw that could aid tariff talks, though India’s energy bill may rise near term.
• Europe pulls back on AI jitters: Stoxx 600 slid as tech worries resurfaced; healthcare outperformed while resources and banks lagged, with Nvidia results and delayed U.S. jobs data in focus.
• India’s record trade gap: October goods deficit hit $41.7B on a 200% surge in gold imports; U.S.-bound exports fell under 50% tariffs, pointing to a wider current-account gap.
• Gold softens on Fed doubts: Prices fell as odds of a December rate cut eased and the dollar firmed; markets await the delayed September U.S. payrolls for policy direction.

India Tilts U.S.-Ward on Energy to Ease Tariff Tensions

India moved to rebalance strained trade ties with Washington by striking its first structured deal to buy U.S. liquefied petroleum gas: about 10% of its annual LPG needs, and sharply increasing U.S. crude purchases to the highest since 2021.

The shift could lift India’s import bill but may help unlock a broader trade agreement if some tariffs are rolled back.

While the White House says India has “largely” reduced Russian oil buys, tanker data still show elevated inflows ahead of new sanctions deadlines.

For markets, the move signals incremental demand support for U.S. energy exports and a potential de-escalation path in U.S.–India trade frictions.

Europe Slides as Tech Jitters Spill Over

European stocks fell Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 down about 1.3% by mid-morning, tracking Wall Street’s tech-led pullback and fresh doubts around the AI trade.

Cyclicals lagged: basic resources and banks dropped, while healthcare held up as Roche jumped on positive breast-cancer drug data.

Corporate movers were mixed: Intermediate Capital Group surged after Amundi took a near-10% stake; Akzo Nobel slipped on its merger with Axalta; Novo Nordisk eased after flagging an earlier U.S. price cut for Wegovy.

With few European data releases, attention stays on delayed U.S. jobs figures and Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, a key test for AI sentiment.

India’s Record Trade Gap on Gold Surge and Tariff Hit

India’s merchandise trade deficit ballooned to a record $41.7 billion in October, far above the $28.8 billion expected, as festive demand sent gold imports to $14.7 billion; nearly triple last year.

U.S. tariffs weighed on exports: shipments to America fell 8.5% to $6.3 billion, with gems, jewelry, engineering goods and textiles notably weaker, while exports to China rose 42% to $1.6 billion.

Ratings firm ICRA expects imports to cool in Nov–Dec as gold demand fades, but sees the current-account deficit widening to about 2.4%–2.5% of GDP in Q3 FY26; a full-year CAD near 1.2% assumes U.S. tariffs stay in place.

Gold Slips as Dollar Firms and Fed-Cut Hopes Fade

Gold extended losses in Asia, with spot prices down 0.7% to ~$4,019/oz and December futures off 1.4%, as traders scaled back odds of a December Fed rate cut and the dollar strengthened.

Markets now see roughly a 42% chance of a 25 bp cut, placing more weight on a hold ahead of Thursday’s long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls, the last key labor read before the December 10-11 meeting.

Higher-for-longer rates and firmer Treasury yields continue to sap demand for non-yielding assets.

Broad metals weakness followed: silver and platinum fell ~0.7% each, while LME copper slipped 0.8% after last week’s gains.

Conclusion

Markets remain cautious as policy and trade dynamics intersect with shifting risk appetite.

India’s move to deepen U.S. energy ties offers a path to ease tariff frictions, yet near-term costs may lift its import bill and widen external balances, as October’s record trade gap underscores.

In Europe, equities retreated on renewed AI valuation worries, leaving investors focused on Nvidia’s results for clues to capex durability.

Meanwhile, gold extended losses as expectations for a December Fed cut faded and the dollar strengthened ahead of delayed U.S. payrolls.

Investment Insights

• India–U.S. energy ties: India buying more U.S. gas and oil can ease tensions and support future trade deals. In the short term, India may face higher energy costs, businesses that earn in dollars or export more could hold up better.
• Europe’s AI jitters: Swings in AI-related stocks are likely to continue. Focus on firms with clear profits from AI.
• India’s record trade gap: A wider trade deficit and tariffs are pressure points. Favor Indian companies with global sales or strong foreign demand while being cautious on sectors that depend heavily on imports.
• Gold and interest rates: If U.S. interest rates stay high, gold can struggle.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate) & Key Data Cluster (Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales)	Dense data slate testing U.S. growth and consumer momentum into year-end; pivotal for rate expectations and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Statement (Budget)	Fiscal measures shaping the U.K.’s growth/inflation mix ahead of the next BoE decision; implications for gilts and sterling.
December 9–10, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Press Conference	Sets the policy tone for the dollar, yields, and global assets; guidance into 2026 will drive equity and credit positioning.
December 17–18, 2025	European Central Bank Governing Council (Rate Decision & Projections)	Fresh forecasts and guidance for the euro area; key for euro, bunds, and European equity risk premia.

Key Points

• China slows U.S. soybean buys despite truce: Record Chinese stockpiles and cheaper Brazilian supply curb near-term U.S. sales, tempering expectations from the recent trade deal.
• Japan GDP slips: Q3 contracted 1.8% annualized, with exports and housing investment dragging; talk of fiscal support and growth-sector investment likely to intensify.
• Crypto under pressure: Bitcoin has fallen about 25% from its October peak amid thin liquidity and fading risk appetite, with further downside if macro conditions tighten.
• Eyes on Nvidia: Global stocks cautious as Wednesday’s results test AI-led valuations; rate-cut odds for December have dipped below 50%, keeping tech sentiment fragile.

China Slow-Walks U.S. Soybeans Despite Trade Truce

China’s soybean imports from the U.S. have barely picked up since the Trump–Xi summit, with USDA data showing just two purchases (332,000 tons) as Beijing leans on record stockpiles and cheaper Brazilian supply.

Port inventories hit a high (10.3 million tons) after months of heavy buying, while Brazil supplied roughly 80% of China’s year-to-date imports and is poised for another record harvest: adding price pressure for U.S. farmers.

Beijing restored some U.S. import licenses and struck conciliatory tones, but state buyers show little evidence of a large buying program. For markets, soy remains a geopolitical lever, not a demand snapback.

Japan Q3 GDP Slips, but Consumption Softens the Blow

Japan’s economy contracted 1.8% annualized in Q3 (-0.4% q/q), the first decline in six quarters, as exports fell and residential investment slumped more than 30%.

The drop was milder than expected, helped by steady government and private consumption, with public demand up 0.5% q/q. Exports shrank 4.5% annualized, while private demand was the main drag amid a 9.4% q/q plunge in housing.

The figures bolster expectations for fiscal support under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with Tokyo preparing a large stimulus focused on energy relief and growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and shipbuilding.

Crypto Slide Deepens as Liquidity Thins

Bitcoin fell below $95,000, down about 25% from its Oct. 6 peak, as a macro-driven risk selloff and subsequent forced liquidations drained market liquidity.

Ether has slipped more than 35% from August highs. Fading hopes for a December Fed cut and the shutdown’s data blackout have cooled sentiment, while ETF inflows have slowed and in some cases reversed.

Strategists warn a retest of the low-$70Ks is possible if equities weaken further, though they note this downturn lacks 2022-style credit stress. Longer-horizon investors argue the structural case for digital assets remains intact pending a turn in global liquidity.

Stocks Cautious Ahead of Nvidia Test

Asian equities edged lower as investors braced for a pivotal week of U.S. “catch-up” data and big-ticket earnings, with Nvidia’s Wednesday results seen as the main sentiment driver after rate-cut odds for December slipped below 50%.

Tech remained the pressure point globally; Japan’s market also faced fresh China–Japan tensions that hit tourism and retail names, while stimulus headlines lifted long yields. U.S. futures were modestly higher, but the dollar firmed and Brent eased.

With jobs data delayed and Fed officials sounding wary on inflation, the market’s near-term tone hinges on Nvidia’s outlook and whether it validates rich AI-led valuations.

Conclusion

Markets enter the week on a cautious footing. Hopes for a near-term Fed cut have faded, pressuring rate-sensitive tech and curbing risk appetite.

In Asia, Japan’s first GDP contraction in six quarters underscores external and housing headwinds even as policymakers signal support for strategic sectors.

China’s slow-walking of U.S. soybean purchases highlights that geopolitics remains a key swing factor for trade flows and prices.

Crypto’s drawdown reflects thinner liquidity and macro uncertainty rather than systemic stress.

Near term, Nvidia’s results and delayed U.S. data will set the tone.

Investment Insights

• China–U.S. soybeans: Don’t bank on rapid Chinese buying. Expect Brazil to keep share gains and U.S. farm prices under pressure; keep ag exposure diversified across origins and inputs.
• Japan GDP dip: Short-term softness raises odds of fiscal support. Look to beneficiaries of planned spending (chips, AI, shipbuilding, grid) while monitoring yen sensitivity.
• Crypto drawdown: Treat bitcoin as a high-volatility satellite holding. Keep sizes modest, add only on a long horizon, and wait for clearer signs of easier global liquidity.
• AI earnings test: Nvidia’s print will steer sentiment across the AI complex. Emphasize valuation discipline and cash-generators across the stack to reduce single-name risk.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate) & Key Data Cluster (Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales)	Dense data slate testing U.S. growth and consumer momentum into year-end; pivotal for rate expectations and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Statement (Budget)	Fiscal measures shaping the U.K.’s growth/inflation mix ahead of the next BoE decision; implications for gilts and sterling.
December 9–10, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Press Conference	Sets the policy tone for the dollar, yields, and global assets; guidance into 2026 will drive equity and credit positioning.
December 17–18, 2025	European Central Bank Governing Council (Rate Decision & Projections)	Fresh forecasts and guidance for the euro area; key for euro, bunds, and European equity risk premia.

Key Points

• Risk-Off as Fed Cut Bets Recede: Global equities weakened after hawkish Fed signals cut December rate-cut odds to roughly 50/50; Asia led declines while oil and gold firmed on risk aversion.
• China Slowdown Deepens: October data showed fixed-asset investment contracting and housing prices falling, with softer industrial output and retail sales underscoring fragile domestic demand.
• Asia Tracks Wall Street Lower: Tech-led selling spread across the region—Japan and Korea fell sharply—amid valuation concerns and fading policy-easing hopes, despite a firmer onshore yuan.
• Foreclosure Activity Ticks Up: U.S. foreclosure filings rose again in October (starts and completions higher year over year); still far below crisis levels but pointing to emerging housing stress.

Risk-Off as Fed-Cut Hopes Fade

Asian equities fell sharply after Federal Reserve officials signaled caution on cutting rates, shrinking market odds of a December move to roughly 50/50.

MSCI Asia ex-Japan slid 1.6%, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2% and South Korea off as much as 3.6%; Chinese stocks eased after October industrial output and retail sales missed forecasts.

U.S. futures softened, while 10-year Treasury yields held near 4.11% and the dollar eased.

Oil rose after supply disruption headlines (Brent ~$63.95), and gold firmed.

The pullback reflects valuation nerves; especially in tech, amid thinner data visibility following the recent U.S. shutdown.

China Growth Cools as Property Drag Deepens

China’s October data underscored a slowing economy: fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% in the first ten months (the steepest since the pandemic era), with property investment down 14.7% year to date.

Industrial output eased to 4.9% from 6.5% in September, and retail sales grew 2.9%, the weakest pace this year despite beating forecasts.

New home prices fell 0.5% month on month and 2.2% year on year, highlighting ongoing housing stress.

While headline inflation turned positive (CPI +0.2% y/y; core +1.2%), economists expect little new stimulus in 2025, keeping pressure on Beijing to support demand as exports also falter.

Asia Sinks as Tech Weakens and Rate-Cut Hopes Dim

Asia-Pacific stocks fell, mirroring Wall Street’s tech-led slide and fading expectations of a Fed cut in December.

Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.77% as SoftBank extended losses after exiting Nvidia; South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.81% with Samsung and SK Hynix under pressure.

Hong Kong and mainland China declined after data showed weaker October activity, industrial output slowed to 4.9% and retail sales to 2.9%: while fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% year to date.

The onshore yuan firmed to a one-year high, but sentiment stayed fragile as U.S. rate signals turned cautious and investors reassessed stretched tech valuations.

Foreclosures Edge Higher as Housing Strains Build

U.S. foreclosure activity rose again in October, signaling gradual stress rather than a crisis.

Total filings reached 36,766, up 3% month over month and 19% year over year, with foreclosure starts up 6% on the month and 20% annually; completed foreclosures jumped 32% from a year earlier.

Florida, South Carolina and Illinois led state filings, while Tampa, Jacksonville and Orlando topped metro areas. Levels remain far below Great Recession peaks (under 0.5% of mortgages in foreclosure versus 4% then), but elevated rates, firm prices, rising insurance costs and softer labor trends point to modestly higher delinquencies ahead.

Conclusion

Markets ended the week on a defensive footing as hawkish Fed signals cut the odds of a December rate move, igniting a broad, tech-led pullback across Asia and Wall Street.

China’s October prints reinforced a cautious backdrop, fixed-asset investment contracted, industrial output and retail sales softened, and home prices fell, keeping pressure on policymakers to support demand.

In the U.S., foreclosures continued to edge higher, still well below crisis levels but signaling rising household strain amid elevated borrowing costs.

Near term, liquidity and positioning dominate; medium term, dispersion favors stronger balance sheets, resilient cash flows, and valuation discipline over momentum narratives.

Investment Insights

• Fed & Risk: With rate-cut hopes fading, prioritize balance-sheet strength and dependable cash generation over momentum; keep some dry powder for volatility.
• China Exposure: Tilt China-linked allocations toward firms tied to domestic demand support (infrastructure, utilities, select consumer staples) and away from property-sensitive names.
• Tech Reassessment: Use the tech pullback to upgrade quality; favor platforms with durable pricing power and diversified end-markets rather than single-theme AI stories.
• Housing Watch: Rising foreclosures argue for caution in housing-adjacent cyclicals; prefer lenders and insurers with conservative underwriting and regional diversification.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate) & Key Data Cluster (Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales)	Dense data slate testing U.S. growth and consumer momentum into year-end; pivotal for rate expectations and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Statement (Budget)	Fiscal measures shaping the U.K.’s growth/inflation mix ahead of the next BoE decision; implications for gilts and sterling.
December 9–10, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Press Conference	Sets the policy tone for the dollar, yields, and global assets; guidance into 2026 will drive equity and credit positioning.
December 17–18, 2025	European Central Bank Governing Council (Rate Decision & Projections)	Fresh forecasts and guidance for the euro area; key for euro, bunds, and European equity risk premia.

Key Points

• Tencent beats on AI and games: Revenue rose 15% as AI improved ad targeting and new titles lifted gaming; international game sales jumped 43%, and Tencent is expanding its cloud services in Europe.
• Shutdown ends, services restart: A new funding law reopens the U.S. government through January, bringing federal workers back, restoring data releases, and easing planned air travel cuts.
• Cisco lifts outlook on AI demand: Strong orders for high-performance networking from major cloud customers led Cisco to raise its sales and profit forecasts into 2026.
• Toyota deepens U.S. footprint: Production begins at a $13.9B North Carolina battery plant, alongside up to $10B more U.S. investment, reinforcing Toyota’s hybrid-focused strategy and domestic supply chain.

Tencent Revenue Up 15% on AI-Boosted Ads and Strong Gaming

Tencent reported third-quarter revenue of RMB 192.9B (above estimates) and operating profit of RMB 63.6B, driven by better ad targeting from its AI tools and solid game performance.

Core businesses—gaming, marketing, and social platforms—rose 16% to RMB 95.9B, while international gaming jumped 43% to RMB 20.8B.

Tencent is also investing in AI models (HunYuan) and expanding its cloud services in Europe to compete with global leaders.

The stock is up approximately 57% year-to-date.

Shutdown Ends; Services Restart as Funding Extends to January

President Trump signed a bill to reopen the federal government after 43 days, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

The House approved the measure 222–209 after the Senate cleared it earlier in the week, funding operations through January and reversing shutdown-related layoffs while restoring pay for more than a million workers.

Agencies told staff to return Thursday; food assistance (SNAP) will be funded, and a December vote on extending ACA subsidies is planned.

The Transportation Department froze planned flight cutbacks tied to controller shortages, easing near-term travel disruption as government data and services come back online.

Cisco Lifts Outlook on Growing AI Network Orders

Cisco shares rose after the company raised its annual sales and profit targets, citing stronger demand for high-performance networking tied to AI and cloud upgrades.

Management reported over $2 billion in AI-related orders for fiscal 2025, largely from major cloud providers, and projected about $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue for fiscal 2026.

The pipeline spans hyperscalers, “neocloud,” sovereign, and enterprise customers, supporting expectations for broader campus network refreshes.

Cisco now guides FY26 revenue to $60.2–$61.0 billion (from $59.0–$60.0 billion previously), reinforcing the view that rising data-center spending by big tech is feeding into core networking budgets.

Toyota Starts U.S. Battery Production, Lifts Investment Plan

Toyota began output at its new $13.9 billion battery plant in North Carolina and said it will invest up to an additional $10 billion in the U.S. over the next five years.

The facility, Toyota’s first in-house battery plant outside Japan, supports a strategy tilted toward hybrids as consumer demand cools for full EVs.

Toyota holds more than 51% of the U.S. hybrid market and U.S. sales rose 9.9% through the third quarter to over 1.3 million vehicles.

The move strengthens domestic supply chains for batteries and positions Toyota to navigate shifting regulations and tariffs while scaling electrified models.

Conclusion

Markets leaned risk-on as policy and corporate signals turned constructive.

The U.S. shutdown’s end restores government services and data flow, easing a key overhang.

In technology, AI demand is translating into real revenue; Tencent’s ads and games accelerated, while Cisco raised its outlook on cloud and data-center networking orders, supporting the infrastructure layer of the AI cycle.

In autos, Toyota’s North Carolina battery launch and added U.S. investment reinforce a pragmatic tilt toward hybrids and onshored supply chains.

Near term, prioritize durable cash generators exposed to AI and electrification. Watch incoming U.S. releases, China growth signals, and tariff developments for the next catalysts.

Investment Insights

• Tencent: Favor platforms that turn AI into measurable revenue (better ads, stronger game engagement) and show expanding international reach.
• U.S. shutdown ends: With services and data flow restored, focus on companies tied to public-sector activity and travel that benefit from reduced policy uncertainty.
• Cisco: The AI build-out needs reliable networking, prioritize “infrastructure enablers” with strong cloud customer pipelines and clear delivery visibility.
• Toyota: Hybrids and local battery capacity are gaining ground, look to North America–centric auto and battery supply chains positioned for steady, practical electrification.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate) & Key Data Cluster (Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales)	Dense data slate testing U.S. growth and consumer momentum into year-end; pivotal for rate expectations and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Statement (Budget)	Fiscal measures shaping the U.K.’s growth/inflation mix ahead of the next BoE decision; implications for gilts and sterling.
December 9–10, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Press Conference	Sets the policy tone for the dollar, yields, and global assets; guidance into 2026 will drive equity and credit positioning.
December 17–18, 2025	European Central Bank Governing Council (Rate Decision & Projections)	Fresh forecasts and guidance for the euro area; key for euro, bunds, and European equity risk premia.

Key Points

• Shutdown Deal Lift: U.S. stocks rebounded (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) as the Senate advanced a plan to end the record shutdown, reviving risk appetite led by AI names.
• Russia’s Rare Earths Push: Moscow ordered a roadmap to scale rare earth mining, but processing hurdles and geopolitical limits mean China likely remains the key buyer.
• Saudi Price Move: Aramco trimmed its December Asia crude price to stay competitive, positioning to capture demand if Russian supplies to China/India ebb.
• Copper Goes “Critical”: The U.S. added copper to its critical list; higher local prices have pulled large volumes stateside, building a de-facto stockpile and keeping domestic prices firm.

Wall Street Rallies as Shutdown Deal Progress Lifts Risk Appetite

U.S. stocks advanced on signs Congress is nearing an agreement to end the record shutdown: Dow +0.81% (47,368), S&P 500 +1.54% (6,832), Nasdaq +2.27% (23,527).

AI leaders rebounded: Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft—after last week’s valuation-driven slide, with sentiment buoyed by a procedural Senate vote to move a funding bill forward.

The prospective deal would reopen the government into January, though key economic reports, including CPI and PPI, remain delayed, and consumer sentiment is near multi-year lows.

Near term, the AI trade faces a fresh catalyst with AMD’s analyst day, a barometer for earnings momentum after a volatile stretch.

Russia Maps Rare Earths Push, But Processing Bottlenecks Loom

President Putin ordered a Dec. 1 roadmap to scale rare earth extraction as Moscow seeks a bigger role in critical minerals dominated by China.

Russia holds the fifth-largest known reserves (~3.8Mt per USGS) but produced just ~2,500 tons in 2024, and the value chain hinges on processing and separation where China controls ~70%.

Sanctions, war-related risk, and opaque deposit quality constrain Western tie-ups, pointing near term to China as the likely offtake route.

Strategic takeaway: any Russian ramp could tighten raw supply but won’t quickly alter global refining dynamics; downstream pricing power remains with established processors.

Saudi Eases OSP to Defend Asia Share, Not Start a Price War

Saudi Aramco cut December’s Arab Light OSP for Asia by $1.20 to +$1/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, an 11-month low and the lower end of refiner forecasts, aiming to keep barrels competitive rather than grab market share.

With cash Dubai premiums and Brent, Dubai spreads falling (Brent recently at a rare discount), Brent-linked crudes from West Africa/LatAm/US have cheapened relative to Dubai-priced grades.

The calibrated move helps Aramco stay in Asian refinery slates and positions it to fill any gaps if U.S. sanctions curb Russian flows to China/India; early Kpler estimates show China lifting Saudi intake in November as Russian arrivals slip.

Copper Named ‘Critical’ as U.S. Quietly Builds a Big Buffer

The U.S. added copper to its list of minerals vital for the economy and national security.

Thanks to higher domestic prices than overseas, huge amounts of metal have been shipped into the country, creating a large, privately held stockpile; now one of the world’s biggest.

That flow is still growing as traders expect future import limits or tariffs. In plain terms: the U.S. is shoring up supply for the energy transition and electrification, but the build-up also reflects tight global markets.

If policies tighten further in 2026–27, the stockpile could grow, supporting availability but keeping U.S. prices relatively firm.

Conclusion

Markets regained footing as Washington inched toward ending the record shutdown, lifting equities and risk appetite, led by AI bellwethers.

Beneath the bounce, strategic resource shifts dominated:

Russia mapped a late push into rare earths but remains constrained by processing gaps and geopolitics; Saudi Arabia nudged crude pricing lower to defend Asian share amid uncertainty over Russian flows; and the U.S. quietly amassed copper after naming it a critical mineral.

The near-term setup favors selective risk-taking while policy paths and supply chains evolve.

Investment Insights

• U.S. shutdown progress: Use the bounce to upgrade quality; favor cash-generative leaders while policy headlines remain the main swing factor.
• Russia rare earths: Near-term impact is limited, processing and geopolitics keep pricing power with existing supply chains; avoid overestimating new Russian volumes.
• Saudi crude pricing: Expect steady, competitive barrels rather than a price war; refiners with flexible sourcing and energy firms with low costs are better positioned.
• Copper ‘critical’ status: A growing U.S. stockpile supports supply security but may keep domestic prices firm; consider beneficiaries across mining, recycling, and grid build-out.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 10, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 Meeting)	Details the Fed’s debate on growth, inflation, and the bar for future cuts—key for rates, USD, and risk assets.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation print driving near-term Fed expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 14, 2025	U.S. Retail Sales (October)	Real-time read on consumer demand heading into the holiday season; key for growth and earnings tone.
November 14, 2025	U.S. PPI (October)	Upstream price pressures that can foreshadow CPI/PCE trends and margin risk.
November 19, 2025	UK CPI (October) & Eurozone HICP Full Release (October)	Key Europe inflation updates shaping BoE/ECB paths and euro/sterling direction.

Sources: Federal Reserve events calendar; Investing.com CPI schedule; U.S. Census retail sales release schedule; BLS PPI schedule/FRED; Eurostat and UK ONS release calendars.

Key Points

• China Inflation Mixed: CPI turned positive at 0.2% YoY while PPI fell 2.1% YoY, signaling easing consumer deflation but persistent industrial disinflation amid weak manufacturing and exports.
• Asia Rebound Led by Korea: Kospi +3.0% to 4,073 as banks/insurers rallied; BOJ minutes signaled conditions for a near-term hike are “almost” met, lifting JGB yields toward ~1.7%.
• Shutdown Deal Boosts Risk: Global equities advanced on progress to end the 40-day U.S. government shutdown; yields firmed and the dollar steadied as markets weighed December Fed-cut odds.
• Nuclear Buildout vs. Waste Gap: U.S. plans to quadruple nuclear output (large reactors and SMRs) face unresolved long-term waste storage, leaving taxpayers with mounting interim costs.

China CPI Turns Positive, PPI Slump Persists as Growth Signals Diverge

China’s inflation pulse firmed in October with CPI up 0.2% YoY (vs. 0.0% expected) and flat-to-modest gains MoM, while producer prices fell 2.1% YoY—extending a three-year factory-gate slump. The data underscore a mixed backdrop: holiday demand and policy support are lifting headline prices and industrial profits, yet manufacturing contracted to a six-month low and exports unexpectedly fell, including a 25% drop to the U.S. Authorities continue to push domestic consumption and “effective investment,” and a recent U.S.–China trade truce could ease external headwinds, but sustained disinflation in industry points to ongoing overcapacity and soft private demand.

Asia Rebounds as Kospi Leads; BOJ Signals Tightening Bias

Asia-Pacific equities rose after last week’s AI-driven selloff, with South Korea’s Kospi up 3.0% to 4,073.24 led by banks and insurers (Samsung +2.8%, SK Hynix +4.5%). Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.26% (Topix +0.56%) as 10-year JGB yields touched ~1.7% after BOJ minutes suggested conditions for a near-term rate hike are “almost” met. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.54%, China’s CSI 300 edged +0.17%, Australia’s ASX 200 +0.75%, and India’s Nifty/Sensex added ~0.5%. Sentiment was aided by China inflation beating expectations (CPI +0.2% YoY; PPI –2.1%), while U.S. macro signals remained mixed into an ongoing shutdown impasse.

Global Equities Rise as U.S. Shutdown Deal Progress Lifts Risk Appetite

Global stocks advanced on signs Washington is moving to end the 40-day government shutdown: Nasdaq futures +1.27%, S&P 500 futures +0.74%, with EUROSTOXX 50 and DAX futures up ~1.5%. Asia followed higher (MSCI Asia ex-Japan +1.36%, Nikkei +1.33%) as China’s CPI turned positive and PPI deflation eased. U.S. Treasury yields firmed (10Y ~4.14%) and the dollar steadied, with markets pricing roughly a 63% chance of a December Fed cut while officials signal caution. Oil ticked up and gold gained. Bottom line: a prospective deal boosts confidence and liquidity, but economists warn the shutdown’s growth dent won’t be quickly reversed.

U.S. Nuclear Buildout Accelerates, But Waste Solution Remains Elusive

A planned nuclear renaissance; driven by surging power demand from AI data centers and reshoring, faces the unresolved challenge of long-term waste disposal. The administration aims to quadruple output via large reactors and SMRs, with an $80B Westinghouse build program and multiple restarts/SMR projects in the pipeline. Yet over 95,000 metric tons of spent fuel remain at 79 sites and the DOE lacks a permanent repository, costing taxpayers up to $800M annually; Yucca Mountain is dormant while alternatives from deep repositories to reprocessing and boreholes compete amid skepticism. Investor lens: long runway for nuclear supply, but policy, permitting, and waste logistics are key execution risks.

Conclusion

Markets opened the week on firmer footing as Asia rebounded, led by Korea, while China’s inflation mix (CPI back to +0.2% YoY, PPI –2.1%) signaled easing consumer deflation but persistent industrial slack. Hopes for a U.S. shutdown deal improved risk appetite and steadied the dollar, though policy timing on Fed cuts remains data-dependent. Structurally, Washington’s push to scale nuclear capacity highlights a multi-year capex theme tempered by unresolved waste logistics and permitting risk. Near term, we favor quality balance sheets and earnings visibility over multiple expansion; watch BOJ normalization signals, incoming U.S. inflation and labor prints, and any incremental Chinese demand support.

Investment Insights

• China inflation mix: Maintain selective exposure; favor firms with pricing power and domestic demand tailwinds; be cautious on industries facing persistent producer-price pressure.
• Asia rebound & BOJ tilt: Position for gradual policy normalization in Japan and cyclical recoveries in Korea; prioritize balance-sheet strength over momentum.
• Shutdown progress: A potential deal supports risk appetite but not lost output; stick with companies resilient to policy noise and dependent on underlying demand, not stimulus.
• Nuclear theme: Treat the buildout as a long-duration opportunity; focus on suppliers and utilities with clear project visibility while factoring in permitting and waste-management risks.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 10, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 Meeting)	Details the Fed’s debate on growth, inflation, and the bar for future cuts—key for rates, USD, and risk assets.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation print driving near-term Fed expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 14, 2025	U.S. Retail Sales (October)	Real-time read on consumer demand heading into the holiday season; key for growth and earnings tone.
November 14, 2025	U.S. PPI (October)	Upstream price pressures that can foreshadow CPI/PCE trends and margin risk.
November 19, 2025	UK CPI (October) & Eurozone HICP Full Release (October)	Key Europe inflation updates shaping BoE/ECB paths and euro/sterling direction.

Sources: Federal Reserve events calendar; Investing.com CPI schedule; U.S. Census retail sales release schedule; BLS PPI schedule/FRED; Eurostat and UK ONS release calendars.

Key Points

• Volatility: DBS CEO Tan Su Shan flagged stretched U.S. valuations and concentration in mega-cap tech, urging broader diversification with Singapore positioned as a stable hub.
• China Trade Surprise: October exports fell 1.1% YoY with U.S.-bound shipments down 25%; imports rose 1%, missing forecasts—signaling softer external demand and weak domestic momentum.
• U.S.–India Thaw Watch: Trump said India has “largely” reduced Russian oil purchases and hinted at a 2026 visit; talk of lower U.S. tariffs faces hurdles on energy and agriculture.
• Asia Risk-Off: Regional equities fell as AI-heavy names retreated and China’s trade miss weighed; Japan and Korea led declines while India was more resilient.

DBS Chief Flags Volatility, Urges Diversification Beyond U.S. Tech Leaders

DBS CEO Tan Su Shan warned that stretched U.S. equity valuations—especially the “Magnificent Seven”—and concentration risk point to continued swings across stocks, rates, and FX, echoing recent cautions from Wall Street chiefs and global policymakers about a potential 10%–20% pullback.

While calling a correction “healthy,” Tan advised investors to diversify exposures rather than time the market, highlighting Singapore’s rule of law, transparent markets, and political stability as a regional hub for capital.

Investor consideration: reduce reliance on crowded AI winners, spread risk across geographies and sectors, and position for choppier conditions without abandoning long-term allocations.

China’s Export Pulse Slips as U.S.-Bound Shipments Drop 25%

China’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% YoY in October (vs. +3% expected) after September’s 8.3% surge, while imports rose a softer-than-forecast 1%, underscoring weak domestic demand and a prolonged manufacturing contraction.

U.S.-bound exports slid 25%—the seventh straight double-digit decline—despite a recent tariff truce that eased effective duties, with firms redirecting sales to ASEAN, the EU and Africa.

Year to date, overall exports are up 5.3% even as bilateral trade with the U.S. shrinks; economists expect Beijing to lean more on fiscal support to stabilize growth.

Investor takeaway: external momentum is cooling, shifting focus to China’s policy impulse and domestic demand.

Trump Signals Thaw With India, Claims Russian Oil Buys Have Slowed

President Trump said trade talks with New Delhi are progressing and hinted at a 2026 visit if invited by Prime Minister Modi, asserting India has “largely stopped” importing Russian crude.

Analysts remain skeptical that India can fully phase out discounted Russian barrels, even as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil take effect Nov. 21 and Asian refiners trim purchases.

Policy watchers see scope for a tariff cut on Indian goods to ~20% from 50% if a deal is reached, though sticking points include energy ties and agriculture.

Investor angle: a partial de-escalation could support India-U.S. supply chains and sentiment.

Asia Stocks Slide as AI Rout Resumes; China Trade Miss Deepens Growth Worries

Asia-Pacific equities tracked Wall Street lower as renewed selling in AI leaders pulled regional benchmarks into the red—Nikkei –1.19% (SoftBank –6.9%, Advantest –5.5%), Kospi –1.81% (Samsung –1.3%, SK Hynix –2.2%), Hang Seng –0.92%, CSI 300 –0.31%, and Australia’s ASX 200 –0.66%.

Fresh China data compounded risk aversion: October exports fell 1.1% YoY and imports rose 1.0%, both missing forecasts and reinforcing weak domestic demand.

India outperformed marginally (Nifty +0.11%) despite pressure in telecoms after Singtel trimmed its Airtel stake. U.S. futures stabilized after Thursday’s tech-led drop, but sentiment remains valuation-sensitive.

Conclusion

Markets are navigating a more fragile tape: DBS’s caution on stretched U.S. mega-cap valuations and concentration risk aligns with renewed pressure on AI leaders, while China’s surprise export contraction underscores soft external demand and uneven domestic recovery.

Geopolitically, a tentative U.S.–India thaw could trim tariffs and support supply-chain diversification, but energy and agriculture frictions persist.

Near term, expect choppy, valuation-sensitive trading; prioritize diversified exposure, strong balance sheets, and visible cash flows.

Watch upcoming U.S. labor/inflation prints and any China policy impulse for direction. Use volatility to upgrade quality and avoid crowded trades until earnings durability, policy clarity, and growth signals improve.

Investment Insights

• Volatility & concentration: Reduce reliance on mega-cap U.S. tech; broaden exposure by region and sector, emphasizing balance-sheet strength.
• China trade softness: Favor companies with diversified demand and pricing power; be cautious on names tied to China’s export cycle.
• U.S.–India backdrop: Supply-chain realignment supports India-linked themes, but tariff and energy policy outcomes remain key swing factors.
• AI-led risk-off: Keep valuation discipline in AI beneficiaries; prioritize firms with clear earnings visibility over momentum.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 6, 2025	Bank of England Rate Decision (MPC)	Sets U.K. policy path into year-end; implications for gilts, sterling, and European rate expectations.
November 7, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (October)	First read on labor momentum; key for growth outlook, risk appetite, and rate-cut timing.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation gauge shaping Fed policy expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 19, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 meeting)	Reveals committee debate on inflation risks and the bar for future easing.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE, October)	Fed’s preferred inflation metric and a pulse on consumer demand heading into the holidays.

Sources: Bank of England calendar; U.S. BLS CPI and Employment release schedules; Federal Reserve events calendar; BEA release schedule.