Preview

Asian markets slipped Thursday, led by tech declines amid U.S. economic concerns and rising bond yields, while OpenAI acquired Jony Ive’s design startup for $6.5 billion to drive AI hardware innovation. Bitcoin surged past $111,000 on institutional demand and regulatory optimism, reinforcing its dominance in crypto markets. Health insurers tumbled as Medicare Advantage audits expanded, raising regulatory risks. Meanwhile, Lenovo shares dipped after a 64% profit drop, despite strong revenue from infrastructure and cloud services. Investors remain cautious as regulatory and macroeconomic challenges weigh on key sectors.

Tech Weakness and U.S. Concerns Drag Asian Markets Lower

Asian stocks extended losses on Thursday, echoing Wall Street’s deep declines as heightened U.S. economic uncertainty and rising bond yields weighed on sentiment. The tech sector led the retreat, with South Korea’s KOSPI falling 1.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipping 0.5%, mirroring weakness in U.S. peers like Nvidia (-1.92%) amid concerns over U.S.-China chip tensions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 0.9% after soft PMI data highlighted ongoing pressure from U.S. trade tariffs. Meanwhile, China’s indexes edged higher, supported by hopes of further domestic stimulus, despite broader regional caution fueled by escalating U.S. debt worries and geopolitical uncertainties.

Investment Insight: Tech’s underperformance signals heightened sensitivity to rising yields and U.S.-China trade friction, underscoring the importance of portfolio diversification. With Asia’s growth outlook clouded by weak PMI data and geopolitical risks, investors may consider defensive sectors or dollar-hedged assets to navigate near-term volatility.

OpenAI Acquires Jony Ive’s Startup to Redefine AI Hardware

OpenAI has purchased io, the design startup founded by former Apple design chief Jony Ive, in a $6.5 billion deal aimed at creating a new generation of AI-powered products. Ive, renowned for crafting iconic Apple devices like the iPhone and iMac, will lead design and creative efforts for OpenAI. CEO Sam Altman emphasized the importance of blending technology and human-centered design in developing revolutionary tools. This acquisition fuels speculation that OpenAI is developing an AI device to challenge traditional smartphones, as tech giants like Meta and Google continue to bet on augmented reality and wearable AI technologies.

Investment Insight: OpenAI’s bold move into hardware signals a potential disruption in the stagnating smartphone market. Investors should monitor developments in AI-driven consumer devices, which could reshape the competitive landscape. Companies with strong design and AI integration capabilities, like OpenAI, may unlock new revenue streams, while incumbents like Apple and Samsung could face heightened competition in the long term.

Preview

US stock futures slipped as lingering tariffs weighed on sentiment, while Japan’s super-long bond yields hit a 25-year high following a poor auction. Oil prices surged above $66 a barrel on reports of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, stoking Middle East supply fears. Meanwhile, Google unveiled Gemma 3n, an AI model capable of running on low-powered devices, alongside health-focused and accessibility tools, cementing its edge in edge computing. Lastly, bearish bets against the dollar hit record levels amid fiscal concerns and Moody’s downgrade, signaling investor caution on US economic stability.

US Futures Slide as Tariffs Weigh on Sentiment

US stock futures dipped Wednesday, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all down 0.3% as lingering tariffs dampened optimism over recent trade developments. While markets rallied last week on news of a temporary rollback in US-China duties, concerns are growing that current tariff levels—the highest since 1939—are curbing economic growth. Retail earnings, including Walmart’s warning of higher prices and Home Depot’s pledge to hold steady, have spotlighted the strain on consumer sentiment. Investors now await Target and Lowe’s results for further clues on retail resilience amid muted economic forecasts.

Investment Insight: The market’s response underscores the fragility of recent gains, as trade and pricing pressures remain key risks. Investors should temper enthusiasm for short-term rallies and focus on defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities, which may offer stability amid heightened tariff uncertainty and cautious consumer spending trends.

Japan’s Super-Long Bond Yields Stay Elevated Amid Auction Woes

Japanese government bonds (JGBs) saw little recovery Wednesday after a lackluster auction sent 20-year yields to 2.57%, their highest since 2000. The selloff, fueled by rising U.S. Treasury yields and concerns over potential fiscal stimulus ahead of July elections, underscores challenges for the Bank of Japan’s efforts to taper debt purchases. Analysts warn sentiment will remain pressured with 30- and 40-year bond auctions looming. Meanwhile, above-target inflation and calls for consumption tax cuts are compounding upward pressure on yields, raising alarm over Japan’s fiscal sustainability.

Investment Insight: The JGB market faces heightened volatility, reflecting global trends of rising term premiums and shifting monetary policy. Investors should exercise caution with exposure to ultra-long bonds, favoring shorter durations or inflation-protected assets as Japan navigates fiscal and monetary uncertainties.

Oil Surges Amid Geopolitical Tensions Over Potential Israeli Strike on Iran

Oil prices climbed sharply after reports suggested Israel is preparing a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, heightening geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Brent crude rose above $66 a barrel, and WTI jumped as much as 3.5% before paring gains. The uncertainty surrounding US-Iran nuclear talks, coupled with fears of escalating unrest in a region supplying a third of the world’s crude, has injected a risk premium into oil markets. Analysts warn that any disruption to Iranian supply—recently boosted by one million barrels per day—could significantly lift prices, even as concerns over oversupply linger into the year’s second half.

Investment Insight: The geopolitical backdrop underscores the importance of hedging against oil price volatility. Investors should monitor developments in the Middle East closely while considering energy equities and commodities with upside exposure to sustained geopolitical risk. Diversifying into alternative energy or defensive sectors may also safeguard against prolonged market uncertainty.

Preview

US futures waver as trade optimism fades, with the Dow up 0.1% while the S&P and Nasdaq remain flat. Tesla fell 2.25% after a 45% rally, as competition from Xiaomi’s EV launch looms, with key support at $289. Xiaomi began mass production of its Xring O1 chip, signaling a $1.87 billion push toward semiconductor independence. CATL surged 14% in its Hong Kong debut, buoyed by its dominant EV battery share and plans for $7.6 billion in overseas expansion. Meanwhile, Australia’s RBA cut rates to 3.85% citing global trade risks, as the Australian dollar slid 0.4%.

Futures Waver Amid Lingering Trade and Tariff Concerns

US stock futures showed mixed performance as optimism over last week’s temporary trade agreement between the US and China faced renewed scrutiny. Dow futures edged up 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded flat, reflecting investor hesitation. Despite last week’s rally following the rollback of some tariffs, concerns are mounting that relief could be short-lived. Elevated tariff levels and cautious Federal Reserve commentary on rate cuts are tempering sentiment. Retail earnings remain in focus, with Walmart flagging higher prices and Home Depot set to provide further insight into consumer resilience.

Investment Insight: While recent trade optimism has buoyed markets, investors should remain cautious as elevated tariffs and restrained monetary policy loom. Focus on sectors resilient to price pressures, such as consumer staples, and watch upcoming earnings for signals of broader economic strain. Diversification remains critical amid heightened global uncertainties.

Tesla Retreats After Four-Week Rally: Key Levels to Watch

Tesla shares fell 2.25% on Monday, ending a four-week, 45% rally that was driven by easing trade tensions and CEO Elon Musk’s hands-on management approach. The pullback coincided with Xiaomi’s announcement of its YU7 electric SUV launch, potentially intensifying competition in the mid-size EV market. Technical indicators suggest the stock remains in an uptrend, though consolidation near $342 signals investor caution. Key support levels to monitor include $289 and $271, while resistance at $430 and $489 could test the stock’s ability to resume its upward momentum.

Investment Insight: Tesla’s recent rally underscores strong investor sentiment, but the pullback highlights the importance of monitoring competitive pressures and technical signals. For investors, $289 and $271 may present attractive entry points, while resistance levels near $430 and $489 could serve as profit-taking zones. Consider balancing exposure to Tesla with broader EV and technology plays to hedge against sector-specific risks.

Market price: Tesla Inc (TSLA): USD 342.09

Australia’s RBA Cuts Rates to 3.85% Amid Global Uncertainty

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking a two-year low, as the board cited a dimming global economic outlook and easing inflationary pressures. The Australian dollar slipped 0.4% to $0.6429 following the announcement, while bond futures rose. Inflation has returned to the RBA’s target band of 2-3%, with core inflation at 2.9%, while the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. However, global trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs and their impact on China, Australia’s top export market, weigh heavily on the domestic economy. Despite the cut, the RBA signaled caution regarding further easing.

Investment Insight: The RBA’s rate cut reflects growing pressures on Australia’s economy from global trade disruptions and softer domestic spending. Investors should anticipate continued volatility in the Australian dollar and commodity markets, particularly iron ore. Fixed-income assets may benefit from further rate cuts, while equity investors may focus on sectors resilient to global headwinds, such as healthcare and domestic consumer staples.

Xiaomi Begins Mass Production of Xring O1 Chip

Xiaomi has officially started mass production of its self-developed Xring O1 chip, marking a significant milestone in its push toward semiconductor independence. Founder Lei Jun announced that the chip will debut in the Xiaomi 15S Pro smartphone and Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, with a product launch scheduled for Thursday. The company has already invested 13.5 billion yuan ($1.87 billion) in the chip’s development and plans to allocate at least 50 billion yuan over the next decade to bolster its chip design capabilities, signaling a long-term commitment to innovation in hardware technology.

Investment Insight: Xiaomi’s foray into chip production positions it as a stronger competitor in the high-margin semiconductor space while reducing reliance on third-party suppliers. Investors should monitor the performance of Xring O1-powered devices and the company’s ability to scale chip production efficiently. With the potential for margin expansion and greater control over its supply chain, Xiaomi’s strategy could unlock significant shareholder value in the long term.

Market price: Xiaomi Corp (HKG: 1810): HKD 54.40

Preview

Markets Open Lower Amid US Credit Downgrade and Weak Chinese Data

US stock futures slid Sunday evening following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1, citing growing deficits and refinancing challenges in a high-rate environment. Dow futures dropped 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. This bearish sentiment follows a strong rally last week, fueled by optimism over a temporary US-China tariff truce. Meanwhile, Asian markets mirrored the downturn, weighed down by softer-than-expected Chinese retail sales growth (5.1% vs. 5.5% forecast) and slowing industrial output. Investors are now closely watching manufacturing and jobs data, alongside developments in the Republican tax-and-spend negotiations.

Investment Insight: The downgrade underscores rising fiscal risks, pressuring US Treasuries and reinforcing a cautious tone for equities. Investors should brace for near-term volatility, especially in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, while seeking opportunities in defensive sectors and dividend-paying stocks that can weather credit-related uncertainty.

Diageo Unveils $500M Cost-Saving Plan Amid Reduced Tariff Concerns

Diageo, the global spirits leader behind Johnnie Walker and Guinness, announced a $500 million savings initiative by 2028 to counter prolonged sales pressure and bolster cash flow. The move aims to generate $3 billion in annual free cash flow by 2026 and reduce debt, according to CEO Debra Crew. Meanwhile, the company lowered its projected tariff impact on U.S. sales to $150 million annually, down from $200 million, as proposed levies on Mexican tequila and Canadian whisky were delayed. Diageo’s third-quarter organic sales rose 5.9%, driven by accelerated North American shipments ahead of potential tariff implementation—an effect expected to fade by Q4.

Investment Insight: Diageo’s strategic focus on cost efficiency and cash flow generation positions it well for shareholder returns, even in a challenging macro environment. Investors should monitor the company’s ability to navigate tariff risks and sustain U.S. sales, while its premiumization strategy and strong North American presence remain key growth drivers.

Market price: Diageo plc (DGE): GBX 2,152.00

Goldman Revises Oil Demand Upward, Maintains Bearish Price Forecast

Goldman Sachs raised its global oil demand growth forecast to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 400,000 bpd in 2026, citing stronger global GDP prospects from easing tariff tensions. Despite this revision, the bank held its price forecasts steady at $60 for Brent and $56 for WTI this year, expecting both benchmarks to decline further in 2026 due to the potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. While the deal could increase supply pressure, persistent disagreements on uranium enrichment conditions leave its outcome uncertain. Goldman warned that prolonged tariff disputes and OPEC+ supply normalization could push Brent as low as $40 by late 2026 if global growth falters.

Investment Insight: Goldman’s outlook highlights a delicate balance between demand recovery and supply risks. Investors should remain cautious of geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.-Iran negotiations, while considering short-term opportunities in oil-related equities. Hedging against prolonged price declines may be prudent as structural oversupply risks loom into 2026.

Xiaomi to Launch YU7 EV and New Mobile Chip, Expanding Tech Ecosystem

Xiaomi will unveil its YU7 electric SUV on Thursday, positioning it as a direct competitor to Tesla’s Model Y in the world’s largest EV market. The launch follows the success of Xiaomi’s SU7 sedan, which has outsold Tesla’s Model 3 monthly since December, despite a recent dip in orders due to a fatal March accident. Alongside the YU7, Xiaomi will debut its self-developed Xring O1 mobile chip, a milestone in its $1.87 billion investment in chip design, with plans to inject an additional $7 billion over the next decade. CEO Lei Jun emphasized Xiaomi’s ambition to dominate both EVs and smartphones through tighter ecosystem integration, leveraging its success in hardware innovation.

Investment Insight: Xiaomi’s aggressive push into EVs and semiconductors underscores its diversification strategy to reduce reliance on smartphones amid intensifying competition. Investors should monitor its ability to scale EV production profitably and capture market share from established players like Tesla, while its chip investments signal long-term growth potential in high-margin technology.

Market price: Xiaomi Corp (HKG: 1810): HKD 52.35

Preview

Markets opened Friday on a cautious note as optimism over a U.S.-China tariff truce faded under the weight of lingering economic uncertainty. U.S. futures were little changed, while Japanese GDP data disappointed and Walmart flagged inflationary pressures tied to tariffs. A Bloomberg survey revealed Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to persist at 30% through late 2025, threatening export flows and dampening China’s growth outlook. Still, Barclays scrapped its U.S. recession forecast, lifting 2025 growth expectations to 0.5% amid improved trade sentiment. In equities, Richemont beat sales forecasts thanks to robust U.S. jewellery demand, offsetting weakness in Asia. Meanwhile, Coinbase shares tumbled after a $400 million data breach linked to bribed offshore agents, just days after the company joined the S&P 500. With macro signals mixed and geopolitical risks mounting, investors are rotating cautiously, favoring resilient sectors and monitoring sentiment and security developments closely.

Market Caution Returns as Trade Optimism Fades

U.S. equity futures hovered near flat early Friday, reflecting a cautious tone across global markets as investors digest conflicting economic signals. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.09%, while the S&P 500 was unchanged and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.02%. Thursday’s trading was marked by muted gains eroded by concerns over the economic drag from President Trump’s tariffs, despite initial optimism from a partial rollback agreement with China. Walmart’s earnings underscored inflationary pressures, warning of “unavoidable” price hikes. Meanwhile, in Asia, markets traded mixed following a sharper-than-expected 0.7% annualized contraction in Japan’s Q1 GDP, casting doubt on regional growth momentum ahead of key economic releases. Investors are now eyeing the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment data for further insight into domestic resilience.

Investment Insight: Despite temporary relief on the trade front, markets remain vulnerable to lingering tariff effects and softening economic data. Investors should maintain a defensive posture, prioritizing sectors resilient to inflation and geopolitical noise, while closely monitoring consumer sentiment as a leading indicator for broader spending trends.

Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on China Outlook as U.S. Maintains Pressure

Markets are bracing for prolonged trade tensions after a Bloomberg survey showed U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to remain at 30% through late 2025, despite the recent 90-day truce between Washington and Beijing. Analysts warn the elevated levies—significantly lower than peak levels but still punitive—could erase up to 70% of Chinese exports to the U.S. in the medium term. The survey underscores low expectations for substantial progress in negotiations before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Chinese industrial output is forecast to slow to 5.9% in April, down from 7.7% in March, with export softness and weakening factory activity already reflecting the tariff impact. While the yuan is expected to stabilize near 7.2 per dollar, Chinese equities and bond yields are seen trading in tight ranges as policy uncertainty tempers investor enthusiasm.

Investment Insight: Persistent tariff headwinds reinforce a cautious stance on Chinese assets, particularly in export-sensitive sectors. With limited scope for near-term policy easing and trade negotiations expected to yield only incremental progress, investors should favor companies with domestic demand exposure and structural growth drivers. Currency stability may offer some relief, but headline risk from U.S. trade policy remains a key volatility trigger through year-end.

Barclays Scraps U.S. Recession Call on Trade Truce Optimism

Barclays has reversed its U.S. recession forecast, citing easing U.S.-China trade tensions as a key driver of improved economic prospects. In a note released Thursday, the bank now anticipates U.S. GDP growth of 0.5% in 2025, compared to a prior projection of a 0.3% contraction. Growth for 2026 was also adjusted modestly higher to 1.6%. The more stable trade environment has also prompted upward revisions for the euro area, with Barclays now expecting flat growth in 2025 instead of a 0.2% decline. However, the bank maintains a cautious stance on Europe, forecasting a shallow technical recession in the second half of the year amid persistent uncertainty around U.S.-EU tariff negotiations.

Investment Insight: The shift in Barclays’ U.S. outlook underscores how pivotal trade sentiment remains for macro forecasts. While risks linger, especially in Europe, reduced recession probability in the U.S. supports a constructive stance on risk assets. Investors may consider selectively adding cyclical exposure while remaining hedged against geopolitical volatility and trade-related setbacks.

Richemont Sales Beat Forecasts as U.S. Jewellery Demand Offsets Asia Weakness

Richemont posted a 7% rise in Q4 sales, slightly ahead of expectations, driven by strong U.S. demand for high-end jewellery despite persistent weakness in Asia. The Swiss luxury group reported €5.17 billion ($5.80 billion) in revenue for the quarter ending March, with its jewellery division—home to Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels—rising 11%. This helped cushion an 11% decline in watch sales, largely due to subdued demand in China amid ongoing property sector stress. While total growth slowed from 10% in the previous quarter, resilient spending by affluent American consumers provided a buffer against regional volatility.

Investment Insight: Richemont’s results highlight the diverging trajectories within the luxury space, with jewellery outperforming watches and the U.S. market proving more resilient than Asia. Investors should closely monitor regional exposure and category mix when evaluating luxury equities. Names with strong U.S. jewellery franchises may offer relative safety amid macro uncertainty and uneven global demand.

Market price: Campagnie Financière Richemont SA (CFR.SW): CHF 154.90

Preview

Global markets are treading cautiously as investors digest mixed signals from trade diplomacy and economic data. US futures slipped early Thursday, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq contracts all lower, as optimism over US-China tariff rollbacks was tempered by investor anticipation of fresh inflation and retail sales figures. Japanese investors extended their foreign equity buying streak, signaling confidence in global risk assets despite lingering trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates through September, delaying further tightening in response to Trump’s tariff moves. In corporate news, Boeing shares edged higher after securing a record $96 billion jet deal with Qatar during Trump’s Middle East tour, while Supermicro stock surged 40% this week on a $20 billion AI partnership and bullish technical signals. As the week progresses, market participants will be closely watching economic prints and geopolitical developments for clarity on the direction of monetary policy and global growth.

Futures Dip as US-China Trade Progress Fails to Soothe Market Nerves

US equity futures edged lower Thursday as markets digested the tentative progress in US-China trade talks and braced for fresh inflation and retail data. Dow futures (YM=F) fell 0.59%, S&P 500 futures (ES=F) declined 0.46%, and Nasdaq 100 contracts (NQ=F) slipped 0.50%. The pullback follows a tech-led rally on Wednesday, with Nvidia driving gains amid optimism over AI-related spending and renewed Middle East tech partnerships. Despite easing tariff tensions earlier in the week, investors remain cautious ahead of the April Producer Price Index and retail sales data, which may gauge the resilience of consumer demand under evolving trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Cisco and CoreWeave offered contrasting AI-driven earnings outlooks, reinforcing the uneven terrain in tech valuations.

Investment Insight: Recent volatility underscores the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments and inflation data. While AI remains a structural growth driver—evident in Cisco’s upgraded forecast—the broader macro picture, including trade policy swings and inflation metrics, continues to steer sentiment. Investors should maintain selective exposure to AI and tech, while watching for signals in consumer data and producer pricing that could inform the Fed’s rate trajectory and broader equity positioning.

Japanese Investors Sustain Global Equity Push Amid Trade Truce Optimism

Japanese investors extended their foreign equity buying streak to an eighth consecutive week, buoyed by easing global trade tensions and renewed optimism over U.S. tariff policy. Net purchases of overseas stocks totaled ¥250.8 billion ($1.72 billion) for the week ended May 10, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance—moderating from the previous week’s ¥2.55 trillion but contributing to a record-setting ¥8.2 trillion in net foreign equity acquisitions year-to-date, the highest since comparable data began in 2005. The shift follows significant tariff rollbacks by both the U.S. and China and a new U.S.-UK trade pact, which have helped lift the MSCI World Index nearly 21% from its April low. Japanese investors also returned to long-term overseas bonds with ¥1.92 trillion in net inflows, reversing prior outflows, while foreign capital continued to flow into Japanese stocks for a sixth straight week.

Investment Insight: The sharp appetite for foreign risk assets among Japanese investors signals growing conviction in a soft-landing scenario for global growth amid de-escalating trade tensions. The sustained demand for overseas equities and bonds suggests a strategic pivot toward yield and diversification as domestic returns remain constrained. Investors should monitor Japanese flows as a bellwether for confidence in global markets, particularly as cross-border capital reallocations may accelerate if inflation data and trade diplomacy continue to stabilize.

Boeing Lands Record $96 Billion Qatar Order Amid Trump’s Gulf Trade Push

Boeing secured its largest-ever widebody aircraft order as Qatar Airways committed to purchasing up to 210 jets in a $96 billion deal announced during President Trump’s diplomatic visit to Doha. The agreement includes firm orders for 130 Dreamliners and 30 777-9s, with options for an additional 50 aircraft. The deal marks a significant boost for Boeing, which has faced production setbacks, labor disruptions, and reputational damage following last year’s 737 Max incident. The broader U.S.-Qatar economic package totals $243 billion, encompassing aerospace, defense, and technology cooperation. Boeing shares rose 0.64% on the news, though investors remain mindful that large-scale aircraft orders are often subject to change. The announcement also highlights the Trump administration’s strategy of leveraging high-profile corporate deals to underpin its evolving trade diplomacy.

Investment Insight: The Qatar order signals a turning point for Boeing’s commercial recovery and underscores the strategic role of state-backed airline demand in stabilizing aerospace supply chains. While political optics may cloud the narrative, the scale of the deal positions Boeing to regain delivery momentum and improve cash flow visibility. Investors should weigh the long-term value of this backlog against ongoing geopolitical risks and supply-side constraints, particularly as the administration uses aircraft orders as trade levers in a broader economic realignment.

Market price: Boeing Co (BA): USD 204.72

BOJ Seen Holding Rates Through September as Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

The Bank of Japan is expected to pause its tightening cycle through the third quarter amid rising uncertainty from U.S. trade policy, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A resounding 95% of respondents forecast no rate change at the BOJ’s June meeting, while 67% now see borrowing costs remaining at 0.50% into September—nearly double the share from April. Despite the pause, just over half of economists still expect at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end. The shift reflects growing concern over the economic drag from President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs, which include a looming 24% levy on Japanese exports starting in July. BOJ officials, including Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, have maintained a cautiously optimistic tone, pointing to continued wage growth and inflation momentum, though the pace of rate normalization may slow as global trade dynamics evolve.

Investment Insight: The BOJ’s expected hold underscores how geopolitical risk is increasingly shaping monetary strategy. With Japanese policymakers prioritizing stability amid external shocks, investors should temper expectations for near-term rate hikes. The yen’s trajectory, capital flows, and equity valuations may remain sensitive to trade negotiations and U.S. tariff enforcement. For fixed income investors, the extended pause could support JGB demand, while equity investors may focus on domestic demand resilience as a buffer against export-driven volatility.

Preview

Coinbase’s 24% surge on S&P 500 inclusion marks a turning point for the crypto industry, signaling rising institutional acceptance amid easing regulatory pressures under the Trump administration. BYD overtakes Toyota as Singapore’s top car brand in 2025, reflecting the EV maker’s aggressive global expansion. Foxconn posts a 91% profit jump in Q1, driven by soaring AI server demand, while US soybean exports face a potential 20% decline without a China trade deal, highlighting ongoing trade risks. Nvidia sparks a tech rally as easing inflation and a US-China tariff truce lift Wall Street, with the S&P 500 erasing its 2025 losses. Bitcoin crosses $100,000, reinforcing optimism in digital assets, while BYD’s success underscores the EV market’s rapid growth in Southeast Asia. Investors are urged to monitor key earnings, trade negotiations, and AI-driven opportunities as markets remain sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts.

Trade Truce Sparks Optimism Across Markets

US stock futures continued their upward momentum on Wednesday, buoyed by a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China and April’s cooler-than-expected inflation data. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.2%, respectively, as easing trade tensions lifted sentiment. Nvidia led a tech rally on Wall Street, driving the S&P 500 to erase its year-to-date losses. In Asia, markets showed mixed openings but gained traction throughout the day. The Hang Seng Index surged 1.7%, and China’s CSI 300 advanced 1.1%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.3%. Meanwhile, macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on corporate earnings, with American Eagle pulling its guidance and disappointing investors.

Investment Insight: The easing of US-China trade tensions and subdued inflation are potential tailwinds for equities, particularly in the tech sector, as seen in Nvidia’s rally. However, lingering macro risks, as highlighted by corporate guidance withdrawals, suggest a cautious approach. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings for signs of resilience and focus on sectors less exposed to global trade volatility.

US Soybean Exports Threatened by Trade Uncertainty

US soybean exports face a potential 20% decline in the absence of a US-China trade deal, according to AgResource. Exports could drop to 1.5 billion bushels, significantly below the USDA’s forecast of 1.865 billion, as Chinese tariffs—even reduced—keep US soybeans uncompetitive against Brazil’s record harvest. Farm gate prices may slide to $9.10 per bushel for 2025/26, compared to the USDA’s $10.25 forecast, pressuring US farm income. While a temporary tariff truce offers slight relief, Brazil’s dominance as China’s top soybean supplier, with ample supplies and lower prices, reinforces American farmers’ challenges in regaining market share.

Investment Insight: The ongoing US-China trade tensions underscore risks for US agricultural markets, with soybeans particularly vulnerable. Investors should monitor developments in trade negotiations and consider exposure to Brazil’s agricultural sector, which stands to benefit from China’s growing demand. Diversifying across commodities and geographies may offer a hedge against sustained trade uncertainty.

Preview

Gold steadied near $3,240 as US-China trade optimism pressured haven demand, with the dollar and Treasury yields climbing. Meanwhile, Honda slashed its profit forecast by 59%, citing tariffs and weak EV demand, while delaying its Canada EV plans. Chinese markets retreated as concerns grew over stalled stimulus following the tariff truce, though the yuan hit a six-month high. Boeing gained traction as China lifted its delivery ban on US-made jets, signaling progress but leaving uncertainties tied to the 90-day trade reprieve. Bond markets shifted focus to inflation data, with 10-year yields rising to 4.47% as recession fears faded, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.

Gold Steadies Amid US-China Trade Optimism

Gold prices stabilized near $3,240 an ounce after Monday’s 2.7% drop, as easing US-China trade tensions shifted investor focus toward riskier assets. The temporary tariff reductions—slashing US duties on Chinese imports to 30% and Beijing lowering levies to 10%—sparked a rally in the US dollar and Treasury yields, pressuring the non-yielding metal. While gold remains nearly 25% higher year-to-date, traders recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further tempering bullion’s appeal. Analysts caution that uncertainty persists over the durability of the trade truce, leaving room for volatility in gold markets.

Investment Insight: Gold’s pullback highlights the metal’s sensitivity to shifts in macroeconomic sentiment. Investors should monitor the sustainability of US-China trade progress and its impact on risk assets. A cautious stance may be prudent, with gold consolidating between $3,150 and $3,350 an ounce, offering potential entry points amid geopolitical uncertainties. Diversifying into silver and platinum could also balance portfolios as industrial demand rises.

Honda Slashes Profit Forecast as Tariffs and EV Demand Weigh

Honda Motor expects a 59% drop in operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2026, projecting ¥500 billion ($3.38 billion) compared to ¥1.21 trillion last year. The automaker cited U.S. tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and rising competition from Chinese EV manufacturers as key headwinds. Additionally, Honda will delay its plans for an EV supply chain in Ontario, Canada, by two years, attributing the pause to sluggish EV demand. Despite the challenges, Honda shares rose 1.01% in Tokyo trading, reflecting broader market optimism.

Investment Insight: Honda’s forecast underscores the pressure traditional automakers face from geopolitical policies and the rapid rise of Chinese EV players. Investors should assess the long-term viability of legacy automakers’ EV strategies amid evolving trade dynamics and market shifts. Honda’s decision to delay its Canadian EV supply chain signals potential challenges in scaling EV production profitably, emphasizing the importance of diversification in the sector.

Chinese Markets Retreat as Trade Optimism Fades

Chinese stocks slid on Tuesday, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (^HSCE) falling 1.9% after a 3% rally the previous session. Investors grew concerned that the US-China tariff truce might curtail Beijing’s willingness to implement further stimulus measures, dampening hopes for stronger economic support. Onshore, the CSI 300 Index (000300.SS) gave up early gains, reflecting caution over the lingering impact of US import duties and the potential for renewed trade tensions. The yuan, however, climbed to a six-month high, signaling confidence in currency stability despite uncertainties surrounding the 90-day tariff reprieve.

Investment Insight: The selloff highlights investor skepticism about the durability of the US-China trade deal and its implications for Chinese economic policy. While improved sentiment has driven short-term rallies, concerns about corporate earnings and constrained stimulus could weigh on equity performance. Investors should brace for volatility in Chinese markets, balancing exposure with sectors less sensitive to trade policy while monitoring signs of further fiscal or monetary support from Beijing.

Preview

Global markets rallied as the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs and pause new duties for 90 days, lifting equities and oil prices while easing recession fears. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures surged, and Brent crude rose over 3%, signaling renewed optimism for global trade. Meanwhile, Asian pharma stocks slid after Donald Trump pledged steep U.S. drug price cuts, raising regulatory risks for the sector. In South Asia, Pakistani and Indian stocks soared following a ceasefire, shifting focus back to growth prospects. On the tech front, Bank of America reaffirmed a bullish outlook for AI capex in 2025, with Nvidia and Broadcom identified as top beneficiaries of robust hyperscaler spending.

Markets Rally as U.S. and China Agree to Tariff Reductions and 90-Day Pause

Global markets surged after the U.S. and China reached an agreement to cut tariffs and implement a 90-day pause in their trade dispute. The U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 30%, while China’s duties on U.S. goods fell to 10%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures jumped 2.8% and 3.6%, respectively, with Europe’s STOXX 600 gaining 1%. The dollar strengthened, rising 1.1% against the yen, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed 6 basis points to 4.435%.

Analysts described the move as a “step in the right direction,” boosting risk sentiment and easing concerns over global supply chain disruptions. However, the temporary nature of the agreement suggests further volatility if a final deal is not reached.

Investment Insight

The tariff reduction and market rally create opportunities in equities, particularly in export-driven sectors and Chinese ADRs. However, the 90-day pause is a reminder of ongoing uncertainty. Investors should remain cautious, prioritizing companies with resilient supply chains. Diversifying into high-quality bonds or U.S. dollar assets may mitigate risks from potential volatility as negotiations continue.

Trump’s Drug Price Pledge Rattles Pharma Stocks

Asian pharmaceutical stocks slid on Monday as former President Donald Trump vowed to slash US drug prices by up to 80%. Trump’s proposed executive order would impose a “most favoured nation” policy, capping US drug prices at the lowest rates available globally.

Shares in Samsung Biologics, SK Biopharmaceuticals, and BeiGene dropped 4%, 2.5%, and 7.9%, respectively, while Sun Pharma led losses in India, falling over 5%. The pharmaceutical industry, which has historically opposed such measures, warned the move could stifle innovation and undermine research funding. Trump dismissed these claims, signaling a tough stance against industry lobbying. The announcement echoes prior efforts during his presidency, which were blocked by legal and political resistance.

Investment Insight

Trump’s renewed focus on drug pricing could heighten regulatory risk for pharmaceutical stocks, particularly those with significant US exposure. Investors should monitor developments closely, as the proposed “most favoured nation” policy may pressure margins and disrupt global pricing strategies. Diversification into healthcare sectors less reliant on drug pricing, such as medical devices or diagnostics, could provide a strategic hedge.

Pakistani, Indian Stocks Surge Amid Ceasefire Optimism

Markets in Pakistan and India rallied sharply after a ceasefire agreement over the weekend eased geopolitical tensions. Pakistan’s KSE-30 Index soared 9.2%, triggering a brief trading halt, while India’s NSE Nifty 50 Index climbed 3%.

Investors are pivoting back to economic fundamentals, with India’s growth prospects buoyed by anticipated US trade deals and potential rate cuts, while Pakistan eyes IMF funding and domestic reforms. The Indian rupee gained 0.9% offshore, and volatility gauges eased, signaling a positive shift in sentiment. However, lingering doubts over the truce’s durability could temper gains, as reports of violations surfaced shortly after the agreement.

Investment Insight

The ceasefire offers a tactical opportunity for investors to capitalize on renewed momentum in South Asian markets. In India, sectors tied to domestic growth, such as financials and infrastructure, stand to benefit from foreign inflows and improving liquidity. For Pakistan, IMF disbursements and structural reforms could support a medium-term recovery, particularly in undervalued equities. Caution is warranted, however, as geopolitical risks remain a potential overhang.

Preview

Asian markets surged Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s benchmark rallying on U.S.-UK trade optimism, while Bitcoin reclaimed $100,000, nearing its $109,000 record high. TSMC posted record April sales as customers rushed orders ahead of looming U.S. tariffs, highlighting the chipmaker’s reliance on AI-driven demand despite tariff risks. Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Heavy projected 10% profit growth this year, driven by robust defence demand, though U.S. tariff uncertainty persists. In China, slowing export growth and factory activity contraction underscore the economic toll of U.S.-China trade tensions as talks loom this weekend. Investors face a complex landscape of geopolitical risks and opportunities.

Asian Markets Surge on Trade Optimism; Bitcoin Nears All-Time High

Asian equities rallied Friday as Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.7% and Taiwan’s benchmark gained 1.8%, driven by optimism surrounding a U.S.-UK trade deal and its potential implications for broader tariff reductions. Technology stocks led gains, while MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index climbed 0.4%. U.S. crude extended its 3% Thursday surge, while Bitcoin soared to $103,909.17, its highest since January, amid strong inflows into crypto ETFs and whale buying. However, caution prevailed as the U.S.-UK deal left critical tariffs intact, tempering expectations for Sino-U.S. trade talks this weekend. Meanwhile, the dollar index touched a one-month high, supported by rising Treasury yields.

Investment Insight: While the U.S.-UK trade deal offers limited immediate economic impact, it signals a pro-trade stance that could buoy market sentiment in the near term. Investors should monitor developments in Sino-U.S. negotiations, as constructive signals could further propel equities, particularly in export-sensitive sectors. Bitcoin’s rally highlights the growing institutional inflows, suggesting potential upside, but caution is warranted near resistance levels. Diversified exposure across equities, commodities, and digital assets remains prudent amidst evolving trade and macro dynamics.

Mitsubishi Heavy Projects 10% Profit Growth on Defence Strength

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) forecasted a 9.6% rise in operating profit to 420 billion yen ($2.9 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by robust demand in its aerospace and defence segment, which is expected to grow 40%. Energy systems are also slated for a 17% profit increase. This follows a 35.6% profit growth last year, though pretax earnings of 374.5 billion yen fell short of the 401.6 billion yen analyst consensus. The company noted its guidance does not account for potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies, maintaining a cautious outlook.

Investment Insight: Mitsubishi Heavy’s strong positioning in defence and energy systems highlights resilience against global macro uncertainties. Investors may find value in the company’s growth trajectory, particularly in defence amid rising geopolitical tensions. However, ongoing U.S. tariff risks warrant close monitoring, with potential implications for profitability. Diversifying within industrials and defence-focused equities could mitigate sector-specific volatility.

Market price: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (TYO: 7011): JPY 2,732

China’s Exports Slow as Tariffs Bite, Trade Talks Loom

China’s export growth slowed to 8.1% in April, down from 12.4% in March, as U.S. tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods took effect. Exports to the U.S. fell 2.5%, while imports from the U.S. dropped 4.7%. The trade war’s toll is evident, with China’s factory activity contracting at its fastest pace in 16 months and U.S. growth turning negative in Q1. This weekend’s Geneva talks between U.S. and Chinese officials hold slim prospects for a breakthrough, with tariff reductions and export controls on the table. Meanwhile, China’s reliance on exports to the U.S., which accounted for 14.7% of its total goods exports last year, underscores the stakes for both economies.

Investment Insight: The persisting U.S.-China trade tensions add a layer of uncertainty for global markets. Investors should consider reallocating towards sectors less exposed to trade disruptions, such as domestic-focused industries or companies with diversified supply chains. Additionally, watch for potential easing measures from Beijing, as China may roll out stimulus to counteract trade-related slowdowns. Defensive strategies remain prudent amid heightened geopolitical and economic risks.