Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 30, 2025
Date Issued – 30th January 2025
Tesla Earnings: Spotlight on Self-Driving and Robotaxi Updates
Tesla is set to release Q4 earnings today, with investors closely watching for updates on self-driving initiatives, robotaxis, and affordable EV models. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $0.75 and revenue of $27.21 billion. While Tesla’s stock is down 1.4% year-to-date, some analysts remain bullish, citing potential growth in AI and autonomous driving. Wedbush Securities predicts Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap by 2025, while Morningstar warns of delays in robotaxi rollouts and labels the stock overvalued. Morgan Stanley sees Tesla as an “embodied AI ETF,” benefiting from favorable U.S. policies, with RBC anticipating margin growth from wider FSD adoption.
Investment Insight:
Tesla’s long-term growth hinges on its AI-driven autonomy and affordability strategy. Short-term risks include overvaluation and potential production delays, but favorable policies and AI advancements could drive significant upside.
Market Price: Tesla Inc (TSLA): USD 389.10
Roche Beats 2024 Estimates, Expects Growth in 2025
Swiss pharma giant Roche exceeded 2024 expectations, reporting 7% sales growth at constant currencies, driven by its pharmaceuticals and diagnostics divisions. Core earnings per share rose to 18.80 Swiss francs, above analyst expectations of 18.59 francs. However, net profit fell to 9.19 billion francs from 12.36 billion. For 2025, Roche forecasts mid-single-digit sales growth and high-single-digit EPS growth, with plans to increase its dividend from 9.70 francs per share. The company remains optimistic about steady growth in the year ahead.
Investment Insight:
Roche’s strong core earnings and dividend growth signal resilience, but declining net profit warrants caution. Investors should focus on its performance in high-margin divisions and how currency fluctuations may impact future results.
Market Price: Roche Holding AG Genussscheine (ROG): CHF 280.80
Conclusion
Markets remain focused on central bank actions, with the BOJ and BoE setting the tone for currency and equity movements. Corporate updates highlight confidence, as Sanofi’s buyback and Roche’s steady growth outlook signal resilience in healthcare, while Tesla’s earnings could reveal key advancements in AI and autonomy. Investors should stay alert to policy shifts, fiscal pressures, and evolving sector dynamics. With mixed signals across regions and industries, near-term caution is warranted, but opportunities in innovation-driven sectors like AI and pharma remain compelling for long-term growth. Keep an eye on company strategies and macroeconomic developments shaping the investment landscape.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 30, 2025: US GDP, Jobless claims; Apple, Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings
- January 31, 2025: Tokyo CPI, Japan jobless claims, US PCE inflation
ASML Shares Soar on Strong Q4 Bookings
ASML shares jumped 8.7% in Frankfurt trading Wednesday after reporting better-than-expected Q4 bookings of €7.08 billion, driven by strong demand for its advanced chip-making tools. The results helped ease investor concerns following recent losses tied to the DeepSeek AI model’s market impact. Analysts at Jefferies noted the robust backlog alleviates 2025 growth worries, though uncertainties around 2026 remain.
Investment Insight:
ASML’s strong bookings highlight enduring demand for advanced semiconductor equipment. However, investors should remain cautious about long-term growth projections amid broader industry uncertainties.
Volkswagen Weighs US Production for Audi, Porsche Amid Tariff Threats
Volkswagen is exploring US production sites for its Audi and Porsche brands to mitigate potential tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump, according to Handelsblatt. Unlike VW’s core brand, Audi and Porsche currently lack US-based production, leaving them vulnerable to trade barriers. The move could safeguard the luxury brands from heightened costs and maintain their competitiveness in the US market. Volkswagen has not commented on the report.
Investment Insight:
Tariff threats underscore the importance of localized production for global automakers. Investors should monitor VW’s expansion plans, which could reduce trade risks and strengthen its foothold in the US premium car market.
Conclusion
Markets remain in flux as investors balance optimism in tech and energy sectors with looming uncertainties. Strong Q4 results from ASML and Nvidia’s rebound highlight resilience in semiconductor and AI-driven industries, while bitcoin’s rise reflects growing institutional interest. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision adds another layer of anticipation, with potential signals on future rate cuts. Meanwhile, Volkswagen’s US production plans underscore the importance of mitigating geopolitical risks. As volatility persists, investors should focus on sectors demonstrating both adaptability and long-term growth potential while staying alert to shifting macroeconomic and regulatory dynamics.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 30, 2025: US GDP, Jobless claims; Apple, Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings
- January 31, 2025: Tokyo CPI, Japan jobless claims, US PCE inflation
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 29, 2025
Date Issued – 29th January 2025
Preview
Markets rallied as tech stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6%, led by Nvidia’s 8.9% surge. Asian and European equities followed suit, as investors shifted focus to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and US mega-cap earnings. ASML shares soared 8.7% on strong Q4 bookings, easing near-term growth concerns. Bitcoin climbed to record highs as the Czech central bank considered holding 5% of its reserves in the cryptocurrency, signaling rising institutional adoption. US power stocks recovered after Monday’s AI-driven selloff, though long-term energy demand remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Volkswagen is exploring US production sites for Audi and Porsche to mitigate tariff risks, reflecting the growing importance of localized manufacturing.
Tech Stocks Rebound as Markets Brace for Fed Decision
Asian stocks and European futures climbed, following a tech-led rebound on Wall Street. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.6%, driven by Nvidia’s 8.9% rally after its historic single-day loss. Investors shrugged off concerns about Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, shifting focus to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and US mega-cap earnings. Analysts expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with bond traders eyeing signs of potential rate cuts in March. Meanwhile, ASML’s strong order bookings and easing Australian inflation captured markets’ attention. Sony also announced Hiroki Totoki as its new CEO, boosting its stock to record highs.
Investment Insight:
Tech remains a key driver, but discerning stock selection is critical as AI-driven gains become less straightforward. Monitor Fed signals for rate-cut cues and focus on resilient sectors as volatility persists.
Czech Central Bank Eyes Bitcoin Reserves Amid Rate Cut Outlook
Czech National Bank Governor Ales Michl plans to propose holding up to 5% of the bank’s €140 billion reserves in bitcoin, citing its potential for asset diversification. The plan, if approved, could make the Czech central bank one of the first to invest significantly in the cryptocurrency. Michl also indicated a likely 25-basis-point rate cut next week. Bitcoin has surged to record highs recently, fueled by regulatory approval of spot-price ETFs and optimism over crypto-friendly policies under U.S. President Donald Trump.
Investment Insight:
Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption signals its rising credibility as an alternative asset. However, central bank moves into crypto carry risks—investors should weigh long-term volatility against diversification benefits.
Power Stocks Rebound After DeepSeek AI Model Sparks Industry Uncertainty
US power stocks tied to AI demand rebounded Tuesday after sharp losses triggered by the release of DeepSeek’s cheaper, competitive AI model. Constellation Energy gained 1%, Vistra Corp surged 9%, and GE Vernova rose 7%, recovering from steep declines the day before. The selloff followed concerns over whether AI-driven energy demand growth would sustain its earlier momentum. While analysts see medium-term stability in data center deployments, long-term energy usage forecasts remain speculative as AI technologies evolve and become more efficient.
Investment Insight:
AI-driven energy demand remains a key growth driver for power stocks, but uncertainties about longer-term trends call for cautious optimism. Focus on companies with diversified energy portfolios and infrastructure investments.
ASML Shares Soar on Strong Q4 Bookings
ASML shares jumped 8.7% in Frankfurt trading Wednesday after reporting better-than-expected Q4 bookings of €7.08 billion, driven by strong demand for its advanced chip-making tools. The results helped ease investor concerns following recent losses tied to the DeepSeek AI model’s market impact. Analysts at Jefferies noted the robust backlog alleviates 2025 growth worries, though uncertainties around 2026 remain.
Investment Insight:
ASML’s strong bookings highlight enduring demand for advanced semiconductor equipment. However, investors should remain cautious about long-term growth projections amid broader industry uncertainties.
Volkswagen Weighs US Production for Audi, Porsche Amid Tariff Threats
Volkswagen is exploring US production sites for its Audi and Porsche brands to mitigate potential tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump, according to Handelsblatt. Unlike VW’s core brand, Audi and Porsche currently lack US-based production, leaving them vulnerable to trade barriers. The move could safeguard the luxury brands from heightened costs and maintain their competitiveness in the US market. Volkswagen has not commented on the report.
Investment Insight:
Tariff threats underscore the importance of localized production for global automakers. Investors should monitor VW’s expansion plans, which could reduce trade risks and strengthen its foothold in the US premium car market.
Conclusion
Markets remain in flux as investors balance optimism in tech and energy sectors with looming uncertainties. Strong Q4 results from ASML and Nvidia’s rebound highlight resilience in semiconductor and AI-driven industries, while bitcoin’s rise reflects growing institutional interest. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision adds another layer of anticipation, with potential signals on future rate cuts. Meanwhile, Volkswagen’s US production plans underscore the importance of mitigating geopolitical risks. As volatility persists, investors should focus on sectors demonstrating both adaptability and long-term growth potential while staying alert to shifting macroeconomic and regulatory dynamics.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 29, 2025: US rate decision, Australia CPI; Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings
- January 30, 2025: US GDP, Jobless claims; Apple, Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings
- January 31, 2025: Tokyo CPI, Japan jobless claims, US PCE inflation
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 28, 2025
Date Issued – 28th January 2025
Preview
Markets were rattled by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s breakthrough, sparking a sell-off in AI-linked stocks like Nvidia (-17%) and Constellation Energy (-21%). Analysts see fears as overblown, with AI infrastructure demand expected to stay strong. Meanwhile, President Trump’s proposed tariffs on copper and aluminum could raise consumer costs and disrupt trade, though they might accelerate U.S. domestic projects long-term. In Japan, MUFG shares hit a record high as rising interest rates boosted bank earnings, with further rate hikes expected. In energy, U.S. LNG exporters are poised to gain market share in Asia, driven by Trump-era trade shifts, though low prices may cap short-term gains. Gold held steady at $2,740.19 per ounce as a stronger dollar weighed on metals, while markets await clarity from the Fed’s upcoming rate decision.
DeepSeek Sends Shockwaves Through AI-Exposed Stocks
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s release of a cost-efficient AI model triggered a widespread sell-off Monday, rattling both tech and power stocks linked to AI infrastructure. Nvidia (-17%) led the Nasdaq’s 3% decline, erasing $589 billion in market cap, while chipmakers like Broadcom (-17%) and Lam Research (-5%) followed suit. AI-exposed power stocks felt the heat too, with Constellation Energy (-21%) and Vistra Corp (-28%) plunging as investors questioned US dominance in AI and the sustainability of spending.
Despite the market panic, analysts argue the fears are overblown. DeepSeek’s advancements, while significant, are seen as unlikely to disrupt the long-term demand for AI infrastructure. More efficient models could even expand AI adoption, supported by concepts like the Jevons Paradox. Microsoft and Meta, both major AI spenders, are expected to provide clarity on future spending in their upcoming earnings reports.
Investment Insight: Volatility can create opportunities. Power stocks remain critical to AI infrastructure, underpinned by rising energy demand forecasts. Meanwhile, efficient technology providers like Nvidia and chipmakers may benefit from long-term AI adoption trends despite short-term headwinds.
Trump’s Copper, Aluminum Tariffs May Raise Consumer Costs
President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on U.S. copper and aluminum imports are stirring concerns about higher costs for American consumers. While the tariffs aim to revitalize domestic production of critical metals for military hardware, analysts warn the U.S. lacks sufficient production capacity, and rebuilding infrastructure will take years. Canadian suppliers like Rio Tinto and Alcoa are unlikely to absorb the costs, which may instead be passed downstream to automakers and, ultimately, consumers.
The tariffs could also disrupt global trade flows. India, a key aluminum exporter to the U.S., is lobbying against the measures, while industry leaders suggest tariffs could accelerate domestic projects like Rio Tinto’s Resolution copper mine. However, near-term impacts would likely hurt local manufacturers facing inflated material costs.
Investment Insight: Tariffs may drive short-term inflation in key industries like automotive and manufacturing. Investors should monitor domestic producers poised to benefit from reshoring efforts, although these gains may take years to materialize.
MUFG Shares Hit Record High as BOJ Rate Hike Lifts Japanese Banks
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) shares reached a record ¥1,969.5 ($12.7) on Tuesday, their highest since listing in 2001, as investors bet on rising interest rates boosting lending income. The Bank of Japan recently raised its key policy rate to a 17-year high, with further increases likely. Other Japanese lenders, including Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (+2.2%) and Mizuho Financial Group (+2.8%), also rallied, pushing the Topix Bank Index up 2.2%.
Higher rates have been a windfall for Japanese banks, which have endured decades of ultra-low borrowing costs. MUFG has announced ¥300 billion in share buybacks, adding to investor optimism. Additionally, profits from overseas operations and unwinding cross-shareholdings are further bolstering earnings ahead of upcoming financial results.
Investment Insight: Rising rates and buybacks make Japanese banks attractive in the near term. MUFG and its peers are well-positioned for continued gains as BOJ policy shifts and global operations support growth.
US LNG Producers Poised to Gain Asian Market Share
US gas producers are set to capture a larger share of the Asian LNG market as countries like Japan and South Korea shift purchases to American suppliers to avoid Trump’s tariffs, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Chinese buyers have already committed to 14 million tons of US LNG from 2026, a 50% increase from the 2021 record. Trump’s reversal of the US LNG export ban is expected to accelerate new gas projects, fueling export growth.
However, Asian LNG prices remain capped at $10/mmbtu due to surplus supply, China’s slow recovery, and Japan’s nuclear restart. These factors could limit short-term price gains, even as US exporters strengthen their foothold.
Investment Insight: US LNG exporters stand to benefit from Trump-era trade dynamics and growing Asian demand. Long-term investors should focus on companies positioned to capitalize on increased global export capacity and shifting trade flows.
Gold Steady as Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed Decision
Gold prices held steady at $2,740.19 per ounce Tuesday after a 1% drop on Monday, driven by margin calls during a tech stock sell-off sparked by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s success. The U.S. dollar surged 0.5%, bolstered by safe-haven demand, as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, its inflation outlook will guide markets.
A stronger dollar, fueled further by U.S. tariff uncertainty, weighed on other metals as well. Platinum fell 0.7%, silver dipped 0.1%, and copper retreated on weak Chinese factory data and trade concerns.
Investment Insight: Gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish amid trade frictions and geopolitical concerns, but dollar strength could pressure prices short-term. Investors should watch Fed commentary closely for signals on future rate changes.
Conclusion
Markets remain volatile amid shifting global dynamics. DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough has disrupted U.S. tech and power stocks, but analysts expect long-term demand to hold. Trump’s tariff proposals could boost domestic production but risk near-term inflation and trade friction. Japanese banks are thriving on rising rates, while U.S. LNG exporters eye Asian market gains despite price caps. Gold steadies as investors await the Fed’s rate decision, with the dollar’s strength pressuring metals. As uncertainties persist, opportunities abound for investors focused on long-term trends across AI, energy, and financial sectors. Patience and adaptability are key in navigating these evolving market conditions.
Upcoming Dates to Watch:
- January 28, 2025: US Consumer confidence
- January 29, 2025: US rate decision, Australia CPI; Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings
- January 30, 2025: US GDP, Jobless claims; Apple, Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings
- January 31, 2025: Tokyo CPI, Japan jobless claims, US PCE inflation
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 27, 2025
Date Issued – 27th January 2025
Preview
Asian stocks rallied Monday as optimism around Chinese AI startup DeepSeek boosted tech shares, though U.S. futures dipped on concerns over its challenge to U.S. tech leadership. Meanwhile, China’s industrial profits fell 3.3% in 2024, marking a third consecutive annual decline, highlighting persistent domestic challenges despite stimulus measures. Bond markets steadied ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, with traders adjusting to inflation data and Trump’s unpredictable tariff threats. The yen outperformed G-10 currencies as haven demand grew, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the BOJ’s rate hike. In Germany, an export-reliant economy faces mounting risks from slowing Chinese demand, rising energy costs, and protectionist policies, underscoring the need for structural reforms.
Asian Stocks Gain as DeepSeek Fuels China AI Rally
Asian markets climbed on Monday, led by gains in Japan, Hong Kong, and mainland China, as optimism surrounding Chinese AI startup DeepSeek boosted tech shares. The company’s cost-efficient AI models are seen as a potential disruptor to global AI investment dynamics. Meanwhile, U.S. futures slipped amid concerns over DeepSeek’s challenge to U.S. technological leadership. Broader market sentiment remained cautious following Donald Trump’s last-minute decision to reverse tariffs on Colombia, which raised fears of further trade-related unpredictability.
Oil prices fluctuated as investors adjusted to rapid U.S. trade developments, while gold edged lower but stayed near record highs. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, China’s slowing factory and services activity signals a need for stronger fiscal stimulus.
Investment Insight: The rally in Chinese tech stocks reflects growing confidence in AI as a long-term growth driver, but geopolitical risks tied to U.S.-China tensions remain a critical factor. Investors should monitor AI sector valuations and broader trade policy shifts carefully.
China’s Industrial Profits Decline for Third Consecutive Year
China’s industrial profits fell 3.3% in 2024, marking the third straight year of declines. The ongoing contraction highlights the challenges facing the industrial sector, including weak domestic demand and geopolitical risks. Stimulus measures have thus far failed to offset the downward trend, with private enterprises showing more resilience compared to state-owned firms. Analysts caution that the sector may require stronger government intervention to stabilize growth, particularly as external demand softens.
Investment Insight: China’s industrial sector faces sustained headwinds, with geopolitical risks and weak domestic conditions weighing on profitability. Investors should factor in potential stimulus policies and sector-specific resilience, especially in private enterprises, when assessing opportunities.
Bond Traders Shift Focus to Fed as Trump Muddies Tariff Outlook
Bond traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision to pause its rate-cutting cycle, as speculation over inflation and economic resilience under Donald Trump’s presidency influences the market. Treasury yields, which surged late last year, have eased amid slower-than-expected inflation data and Trump’s restrained tariff actions during his first week in office. However, market uncertainty remains as Trump’s unpredictable policies—such as a now-resolved emergency tariff on Colombian goods—continue to stir inflationary and trade risks.
Investment Insight: Bond markets face a volatile 2025, tied closely to Trump’s economic policies and inflation trends. Investors should monitor yield curve shifts and Fed signals, balancing duration exposure amid heightened uncertainty.
Yen Outperforms G-10 Peers as Haven Demand Rises
The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar on Monday, outperforming its G-10 peers as investors sought its haven appeal amidst concerns over Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Colombia. The yen rose as much as 0.5% to 155.29 per dollar, buoyed by a risk-off sentiment and lingering support from the Bank of Japan’s recent interest rate hike, its highest since 2008.
While Japan’s financial exposure to Colombia is minimal, strategists suggest the yen’s strength reflects broader market caution as well as narrowing yield gaps following the BOJ’s policy shift. Some analysts expect further yen gains, with a 12-month target of 145 against the dollar.
Investment Insight: The yen’s haven status is reaffirmed amid geopolitical and economic risks. Investors should watch Japan’s monetary policy trajectory and global risk sentiment as key drivers for the currency’s performance.
Germany’s Economic Model Faces Crisis Amid Export Dependence
Germany’s export-driven economy is faltering under slowing Chinese demand, rising energy costs, and growing competition from Chinese manufacturers. Automotive giants like Audi, once pillars of German manufacturing, are cutting profits and jobs as the nation grapples with its second consecutive year of economic contraction—its worst stagnation since World War II. The lack of a diversified “Plan B” leaves Germany vulnerable, with politicians and businesses largely clinging to the status quo. Rising protectionism under Trump and global trade disruptions further compound the challenges, while high energy costs and underinvestment in infrastructure deter innovation and growth.
Investment Insight: Germany’s economic woes highlight risks for investors in export-reliant industries. Diversification into sectors like technology or renewable energy may offer long-term opportunities, but near-term risks remain elevated amid trade uncertainties and structural stagnation.
Conclusion
Global markets are navigating a complex environment shaped by geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, and structural economic challenges. Asian tech stocks surged on AI optimism, but China’s industrial struggles and U.S. tariff threats weigh on sentiment. Bond markets await clarity from the Fed, while the yen’s haven appeal underscores heightened uncertainty. Germany’s export-dependent model faces mounting pressure, with diversification efforts lagging behind. As 2025 unfolds, investors should remain vigilant, balancing opportunities in emerging sectors like AI and renewables with caution around geopolitical risks and policy shifts that could redefine global trade and growth trajectories.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 28, 2025: US Consumer confidence
- January 29, 2025: US rate decision, Australia CPI; Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, ASML earnings
- January 30, 2025: US GDP, Jobless claims; Apple, Deutsche Bank, Shell earnings
- January 31, 2025: Tokyo CPI, Japan jobless claims, US PCE inflation
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 24, 2025
Date Issued – 24th January 2025
Preview
Global markets rallied for a ninth straight day as President Trump signaled flexibility on China tariffs, boosting emerging-market currencies and equities. Meanwhile, Trump’s executive order banning central bank digital currencies and establishing crypto regulations was welcomed by industry leaders, though near-term volatility is expected. Boeing warned of a $3.5 billion Q4 cash flow loss due to labor strikes and layoffs, further pressuring its financials. Oil prices are poised for their first weekly drop of 2025 as Trump urged OPEC to lower prices, adding volatility to energy markets. In Japan, the BOJ raised rates to 0.5%, its highest in 17 years, strengthening the yen and signaling confidence in sustained inflation growth. Markets remain cautious as geopolitical uncertainties and policy shifts continue to unfold.
Global Stocks Surge as Trump Signals Tariff Flexibility
Global markets rallied for a ninth consecutive day, with the MSCI All-Country Index approaching a record high. US President Donald Trump hinted at a softer stance on China tariffs during a Fox News interview, fueling gains in Chinese equities and emerging-market currencies. The Australian dollar climbed 0.7%, while the yen strengthened after the Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time since July. Despite optimism, analysts remain cautious, citing Trump’s unpredictable nature and ongoing trade challenges. Meanwhile, US futures held steady, and Europe’s markets advanced.
Investment Insight: Markets are buoyed by optimism over US-China trade, but volatility remains likely as negotiations unfold. Investors should tread carefully, balancing short-term gains against uncertainty in policy shifts and geopolitical risks.
Trump Signs Executive Order Supporting Crypto Industry
President Donald Trump signed an executive order fulfilling two campaign promises to the cryptocurrency world: banning central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and creating a presidential working group to establish clear regulations for digital assets. While the order stops short of creating a “strategic national bitcoin stockpile,” it instructs the group to evaluate the feasibility of a broader national crypto reserve, potentially including assets seized by law enforcement. Trump also revoked a 2022 Biden-era directive that sought to reduce risks from digital assets. Bitcoin briefly rose on the news before stabilizing, with industry leaders lauding the president’s pro-crypto stance as a pivotal step for regulatory clarity.
Investment Insight: Trump’s crypto-friendly policies signal long-term opportunities for the industry, but near-term volatility remains as markets digest regulatory developments. Investors should monitor the working group’s outcomes and shifts in federal crypto oversight.
Boeing Warns of $3.5 Billion Cash Flow Loss Amid Labor Strikes and Layoffs
Boeing (BA) expects a $3.5 billion operating cash flow loss in Q4 due to an eight-week IAM labor strike, layoffs, and challenges in its defense business. Preliminary results project $15.2 billion in revenue, falling short of $16.76 billion consensus estimates, with a GAAP loss per share of $5.46 versus a projected $1.32 loss. Pre-tax charges of $1.7 billion in the defense and space segment and higher labor costs from a new four-year IAM contract are adding to financial pressures. Boeing delivered 348 commercial jets in 2024, a third fewer than the prior year, but executives remain focused on stabilizing operations and rebuilding production.
Investment Insight: Boeing faces near-term headwinds from labor disruptions and cost overruns, pressuring profitability. Long-term investors should assess recovery potential as production normalizes and cash reserves improve through capital raises.
Market price: Boeing Co (NYSE: BA): USD 178.50
Oil on Track for First Weekly Drop in 2025 as Trump Pressures Prices
Oil prices are set for their first weekly decline this year, with Brent near $78 per barrel and WTI below $75, down around 3%. Market unease follows President Donald Trump’s calls for Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices and his tariff threats on Canada, Mexico, and China. While a weaker dollar pared some crude losses, futures are still headed for their largest weekly drop since November. US crude stockpiles fell for a ninth consecutive week, but lower inventories and strong sanctions on Russian oil continue to disrupt global flows and pressure prices.
Investment Insight: Trump’s push to lower oil prices may heighten volatility in energy markets. Investors should monitor OPEC’s response and global supply dynamics as sanctions and production adjustments create opportunities and risks.
Bank of Japan Raises Rates, Signals End to Ultra-Low Borrowing Costs
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its key policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5%, the highest level in 17 years, signaling confidence in inflation surpassing its 2% target. This marks the BOJ’s third hike under Governor Kazuo Ueda. The yen strengthened 0.7% against the dollar, while 10-year Japanese bond yields rose to 1.23%. Analysts expect gradual rate hikes every six months, with inflation momentum and wage growth closely monitored. The hike aligns Japan’s rates closer to global levels and offers flexibility for future economic shifts.
Investment Insight: The BOJ’s hawkish stance supports the yen but could pressure Japanese equities. Investors should watch for inflation trends and currency impacts as Japan pivots away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
Conclusion
Markets are navigating a mix of optimism and caution as geopolitical shifts and policy changes take center stage. Trump’s softer tone on China tariffs and crypto-friendly moves have spurred market momentum, while his push on oil prices adds volatility to energy markets. Boeing faces significant near-term challenges with labor disruptions weighing on its financials. Meanwhile, Japan’s rate hike signals a turning point in its monetary policy, supporting the yen but pressuring equities. As global markets rally, investors should remain vigilant, balancing short-term opportunities with the risks posed by unpredictable policies, trade uncertainties, and evolving economic conditions worldwide.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 23, 2025
Date Issued – 23rd January 2025
Preview
President Trump’s $300 billion freeze on green infrastructure funding threatens U.S. renewable energy projects, while his tariff threats loom over China despite market-boosting measures by Beijing. In Japan, a surge in foreign stock investments via the expanded NISA system is weakening the yen, adding pressure to import-heavy industries. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy faces rising inflation and high interest rates, with Putin signaling concerns as Trump considers more sanctions. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 nears record highs, fueled by strong earnings and optimism around a $500 billion AI initiative. Investors should watch for policy risks, geopolitical tensions, and valuation challenges.
Donald Trump Freezes $300bn in Green Infrastructure Funding
President Donald Trump has paused over $300 billion in federal green infrastructure funding, targeting key components of Joe Biden’s climate agenda. The executive order halts disbursements tied to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and infrastructure law, including $50 billion in Department of Energy loans already approved and $280 billion in pending requests. This move has sent shockwaves through the clean energy sector, raising fears of stranded capital, stalled renewable projects, and reduced federal support for electric vehicle (EV) and battery manufacturing. Key renewable projects, such as offshore wind farms, are now at risk, with some investors already scaling back U.S. plans.
Investment Insight: The freeze signals heightened regulatory risk for renewable energy and EV sectors in the U.S., with potential long-term impacts on investment stability. Investors should monitor policy shifts closely and consider diversifying geographically to mitigate exposure.
Asian Stocks Rise on China’s Market-Boosting Measures
Asian stocks climbed as Chinese regulators pledged government-wide support to boost share prices, with the CSI 300 Index advancing up to 1.8%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended its rally, marking its longest winning streak in nearly a month. During a high-profile briefing, officials urged insurers and mutual funds to increase equity holdings, signaling Beijing’s commitment to stabilizing markets. However, analysts warn that while this move is positive, it won’t resolve deeper economic challenges. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade tensions remain a looming concern for global investors, following tariff threats from President Trump earlier this week.
Investment Insight: China’s efforts to stabilize its stock market may offer short-term opportunities, but investors should remain cautious given lingering economic headwinds and geopolitical risks. Focus on selective, value-driven investments rather than speculative plays.
Japan’s Foreign Stock Appetite Adds Pressure on the Yen
Japanese retail investors are pouring record amounts into overseas equities, with ¥10.4 trillion ($66 billion) invested last year via the expanded Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) system. This surge, driven by tax-free incentives and higher returns abroad, is further weakening the yen, which already faces pressure from the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap and trade uncertainties under Donald Trump. With NISA accounts growing by 60% since 2020, analysts expect continued yen-selling pressure in the near term, though increased yields or stronger domestic stock performance could shift flows back to Japan.
Investment Insight: The yen’s prolonged weakness benefits Japanese exporters but poses risks for import-heavy industries. Investors should monitor NISA-driven outflows and consider currency hedging for exposure to Japanese equities.
Putin Eyes Economy as Trump Signals More Sanctions
Vladimir Putin is increasingly concerned about Russia’s strained wartime economy, which faces inflation near double digits, high interest rates at 21%, and labor shortages driven by record defense spending. While Russia’s economy showed resilience during the war, growth is now slowing, with forecasts below 1.5% in 2025. These pressures have led some in the Kremlin to favor a negotiated end to the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened more sanctions and tariffs unless progress is made, heightening economic risks for Russia.
Investment Insight: Russia’s economic fragility and potential sanctions create a challenging environment for global investors. Focus on sectors resilient to geopolitical pressures, such as energy, while avoiding areas vulnerable to sanctions and high domestic interest rates.
S&P 500 Near Record Highs on Strong Earnings and AI Optimism
The S&P 500 surged past 6,100 intraday on Wednesday, fueled by strong corporate earnings and optimism around Donald Trump’s pro-business agenda. While the index closed just shy of its all-time high, 79% of reporting firms have beaten earnings estimates, with Netflix leading the charge after adding record subscribers. Investor sentiment also soared following Trump’s announcement of a $500 billion AI infrastructure partnership between Oracle, SoftBank, and OpenAI. Oracle shares rose 7%, SoftBank jumped 11%, and semiconductor stocks rallied, underscoring confidence in the AI sector’s growth potential.
Investment Insight: Strong earnings and AI-driven initiatives are bolstering U.S. equities, but risks from high interest rates and stretched valuations remain. Focus on AI and tech leaders driving innovation while keeping an eye on macroeconomic headwinds.
Conclusion
Global markets are navigating a complex mix of opportunities and risks. While strong earnings and AI-driven initiatives push U.S. equities near record highs, policy shifts under President Trump are creating uncertainty, from green energy funding freezes to potential sanctions on Russia. In Asia, China’s efforts to stabilize markets offer short-term optimism, but long-term challenges persist, and Japan’s appetite for foreign stocks is pressuring the yen. Investors should remain cautious, balancing growth opportunities in sectors like AI and renewables with the need to hedge against geopolitical risks, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic headwinds shaping the global economic landscape.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 23, 2025: South Korea GDP, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 22, 2025
Date Issued – 22th January 2025
Preview
Tech innovation and policy shifts dominate the headlines this week. OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank unveiled Stargate, a $500 billion U.S. AI infrastructure initiative, solidifying AI’s role in future innovation. Meanwhile, President Trump signaled openness to Elon Musk or Larry Ellison acquiring TikTok, adding complexity to U.S.-China tech relations. Netflix surged 14% after record Q4 subscriber growth and price hikes, driven by live events and a $15 billion buyback. In Asia, AI optimism lifted markets, but SK Hynix’s 26% rally faces profit-taking as investors rotate into domestic stocks benefiting from Trump’s policies. Tech remains the focal point for global markets.
Tech Titans Commit $500 Billion to U.S. AI Development
OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank have announced plans to invest up to $500 billion in U.S. artificial intelligence infrastructure through a new venture called Stargate. The initiative, unveiled at the White House with President Trump, highlights AI’s growing importance to the American economy. Stargate’s first data center, already under construction in Texas, will be operated by Oracle and used by OpenAI. Additional investors and debt financing are expected to support the ambitious project. Microsoft, Nvidia, and Arm Holdings have signed on as technology partners, solidifying AI as a cornerstone of future innovation.
Investment Insight
The Stargate initiative underscores AI’s pivotal role in reshaping industries. Investors should monitor the capital-intensive nature of AI infrastructure, as it could drive demand for semiconductor stocks, cloud providers, and data center operators.
Trump Open to Musk or Ellison Buying TikTok in Joint US Venture
President Trump expressed openness to Elon Musk or Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison acquiring TikTok through a joint venture with the U.S. government. While ByteDance has resisted selling the app, Trump extended the deadline for a sale by 75 days via executive order. Potential bidders include American investors, billionaire Frank McCourt, and Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, whose $20 billion bid excludes TikTok’s algorithm to ease national security concerns. Oracle and Amazon have also been floated as potential suitors, though Beijing’s stance on the matter remains uncertain.
Investment Insight
TikTok’s potential sale highlights opportunities in the social media and AI sectors. Watch for regulatory outcomes, as antitrust issues and geopolitical tensions could reshape valuations and investor strategies.
Netflix Stock Surges 14% on Record Subscriber Growth, Price Hikes Announced
Netflix shares soared over 14% in after-hours trading after the company reported its largest-ever quarterly subscriber gain of 18.9 million in Q4, far surpassing Wall Street’s expectations. Revenue and earnings beat forecasts, with full-year revenue guidance upgraded to $43.5-$44.5 billion. Netflix also announced a $15 billion stock buyback and price increases across its plans in the U.S., Canada, Portugal, and Argentina. Key drivers included successful live events like the “Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson” match and NFL games, though the company emphasized no single event accounted for the surge.
Investment Insight
Netflix’s focus on special live events, price hikes, and aggressive buybacks signals long-term confidence. Investors should monitor its ability to sustain subscriber growth amid rising competition and higher pricing.
Market price: Netflix Inc (NFLX): USD 869.68
Asian Stocks Rise on AI Optimism, China Faces Pressure from Tariff Threats
Asian markets climbed as enthusiasm over AI investments under President Trump overshadowed concerns about potential 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese tech stocks surged, with SoftBank shares jumping 11% after its inclusion in the U.S.-backed Stargate AI venture. However, Chinese and Hong Kong markets lagged, with the CSI 300 Index falling 1.3% amid trade fears. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up 0.1%, while the dollar strengthened and Chinese yuan weakened.
Investment Insight
AI-driven optimism supports regional tech stocks, but lingering trade tensions with China may weigh on broader Asian markets. Investors should balance exposure between AI opportunities and risks tied to geopolitical uncertainty.
SK Hynix’s AI-Driven Rally Faces Investor Pullback Amid Trump Policies
SK Hynix shares, up 26% this year on AI excitement, face pressure as Korean retail investors rotate into domestic-focused stocks benefiting from President Trump’s policies. Despite expectations of record Q4 earnings driven by demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, concerns over Nvidia’s slowing momentum, declining memory prices, and stretched valuations (2.8x price-to-book ratio) are prompting profit-taking. Foreign investors, who propelled the stock higher, may also see memory chips as laggards in the AI space. Broader market focus is shifting toward sectors like shipbuilding and nuclear power under Trump’s agenda.
Investment Insight
SK Hynix’s rally reflects AI optimism, but valuation concerns and sector rotation may cap further gains. Investors should weigh long-term AI demand against short-term macro and policy-driven shifts favoring other industries.
Market price: SK Hynix Inc (KRX: 000660): KRW 226,500
Conclusion
This week highlights the transformative power of AI and the global impact of policy decisions. Stargate’s $500 billion investment cements AI as a cornerstone of U.S. innovation, while Netflix’s record-breaking growth underscores the value of strategic content and pricing. However, geopolitical tensions loom, from TikTok’s potential sale to Trump’s tariff threats on China. In Asia, AI-driven optimism is tempered by profit-taking in SK Hynix and sector rotations into domestic industries. As technology reshapes industries and markets, investors must balance growth opportunities with the risks posed by evolving policies and macroeconomic pressures. The tech-driven narrative remains a dominant market force.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 23, 2025: South Korea GDP, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 21, 2025
Date Issued – 21th January 2025
Preview
Markets are bracing for volatility as President Trump’s tariff plans on Canada and Mexico rattle currencies and metals markets, while China remains a potential trade target. Apple’s iPhone sales in China plunged 18% last quarter, losing ground to Huawei’s locally-driven dominance. Trump’s repeal of Biden’s AI executive order may boost innovation but raises safety concerns. Meanwhile, an extreme winter storm is disrupting Texas energy production and pushing electricity demand to near-record highs, with prices surging. Investors should monitor trade developments, AI advancements, and energy market volatility as key drivers in the coming weeks.
Trump’s Trade Signals Jolt Markets, Stirring Volatility Concerns
Markets reacted unevenly to President Trump’s first day of his second term, with no immediate tariffs on China offering relief, while threats of 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports caused their currencies to tumble. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up 0.2%, but US equity futures were flat as investors braced for continued trade uncertainty. The dollar rose 0.7%, while Treasury yields fell on easing inflation fears. Analysts warn of heightened volatility as Trump’s “America First” agenda unfolds, with China possibly next on the tariff radar.
Investment Insight
Prepare for market swings driven by tariff developments. Safe-haven assets like Treasuries may offer temporary refuge, but currency markets, particularly the yuan, remain vulnerable to trade policy shifts.
Apple’s iPhone Sales in China Plunge 18% in Holiday Quarter
Apple’s iPhone sales in China fell 18.2% during the December quarter, pushing the company to third place in the world’s largest smartphone market, according to Counterpoint Research. Huawei reclaimed the top spot, driven by strong sales of its Mate 70 and Nova 13 series, which feature HarmonyOS and Chinese-made chips. Apple’s decline in China contributed to a global 5% drop in iPhone sales during the key shopping season. While Apple’s new AI-powered features boosted early sales, limited access to these capabilities in China has dampened momentum. Talks with local tech giants like Baidu and Tencent to resolve this issue remain inconclusive.
Investment Insight
Apple’s struggles in China underscore growing competition from Huawei and the importance of local partnerships for AI advancements. Investors should monitor Apple’s ability to regain market share in China and capitalize on AI opportunities, while Huawei’s resurgence highlights potential growth in Chinese tech and semiconductors.
Market price: Apple Inc (APPL): USD 229.98
Metals Slide as Trump Targets Canada and Mexico with Tariff Threats
Base metals fell after President Trump announced plans for 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, boosting the dollar and making metals pricier for global buyers. Copper, already strained by weak Chinese demand, remains under pressure after an 11% drop last quarter. While Trump refrained from imposing new China tariffs, uncertainty over future actions continues to cloud market sentiment. Aluminum and lead declined on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore bucked the trend, rising on stronger Chinese demand prospects.
Investment Insight
Trade tensions and a strong dollar will likely weigh on industrial metals, but iron ore could outperform due to China’s infrastructure-driven demand. Stay cautious around base metals tied to global trade sentiment.
Trump Repeals Biden’s AI Executive Order on Day One
President Donald Trump repealed a 2023 executive order by former President Joe Biden that aimed to mitigate AI risks to consumers, workers, and national security. Biden’s order had tasked NIST with creating guidance on addressing AI biases and required companies to share safety test results with the government before public release. Trump’s allies criticized the requirements as overly burdensome and harmful to innovation, while Trump pledged to promote AI policies focused on “free speech and human flourishing,” though specifics remain unclear.
Investment Insight
The repeal may accelerate AI development by reducing regulatory hurdles, favoring companies in the AI sector. However, the lack of safety oversight could heighten risks tied to biased or untested models.
Extreme Cold and Record Snowfall Threaten Texas Power Grid
An unprecedented winter storm is hitting the US South, with record-breaking snowfall expected in cities like Houston and New Orleans. Texas faces extreme cold warnings, with temperatures in West Texas dropping as low as 15°F. The freeze is disrupting oil and natural gas production while driving electricity demand to near-record highs. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) forecasts peak demand to hit 77.5 gigawatts, with electricity prices in Dallas more than doubling. Travel has been severely impacted, with flight cancellations and highway closures across the region.
Investment Insight
Energy prices may rise as freezing temperatures strain production and demand spikes. Utility and energy stocks could see short-term volatility, while increased weather-related disruptions highlight infrastructure investment opportunities.
Conclusion
As markets adjust to President Trump’s policies, investors face a turbulent landscape shaped by trade tensions, disruptive weather, and shifting tech dynamics. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico weigh on metals, while China looms as the next trade battleground. Apple’s struggles in China highlight growing competition and the importance of localized innovation. Extreme weather in Texas underscores vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure, sparking price surges and production disruptions. With AI regulations loosened, opportunities for growth emerge alongside heightened risks. Staying agile and focused on evolving global trends will be key to navigating the uncertainty ahead.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 21, 2025: Canada CPI, UK Jobless claims
- January 23, 2025: South Korea GDP, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 20, 2025
Date Issued – 20th January 2025
Preview
Asian stocks rose on optimism from a Trump-Xi call, boosting Chinese equities as markets await Trump’s policy agenda, including potential tariffs and reforms. Oil steadied near $81 as traders braced for Trump’s domestic energy push and sanctions, with global crude flows remaining volatile. Instagram and X unveiled new video tools, vying for TikTok’s user base amid its uncertain US future following a federal ban. South Korea announced record export financing to counter Trump’s trade policies, focusing on shielding vulnerable sectors like semiconductors while exploring opportunities in defense and shipbuilding. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 0.5%, the highest in 17 years, signaling confidence in Japan’s recovery despite risks from Trump’s policies. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments, energy markets, and shifts in video platforms, while noting opportunities in export-reliant sectors, financials, and energy producers.
Asian Stocks Rise on Trump-Xi Call, Optimism Grows
Asian markets climbed after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s pre-inauguration call raised hopes for easing US-China tensions. Key Chinese stocks in Hong Kong surged up to 2.5%, while Wall Street futures dipped slightly with US markets closed for a holiday. The discussion, which touched on trade, TikTok, and fentanyl, signaled potential improvements in bilateral relations, boosting risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to slide, and Chinese banks held their loan prime rates steady.
Attention now shifts to Trump’s sweeping policy agenda post-inauguration, including expected executive orders on energy, immigration, and regulatory reform, alongside a potential inflationary impact from his protectionist stance. Analysts predict higher Treasury yields, with some forecasting rates to climb to 6% this year. In Japan, all eyes are on the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, with speculation around a possible hike.
Investment Insight
Improved US-China relations may buoy Asian equities in the short term, but Trump’s pro-growth, protectionist policies could stoke inflation, strengthening the dollar and pressuring bonds. Investors should monitor sectors like tech, energy, and EVs, which are directly influenced by geopolitical shifts.
Oil Steadies Near $81 as Markets Eye Trump’s Energy Plans
Oil prices held steady with Brent trading below $81 and WTI near $78 as markets brace for uncertainty tied to Donald Trump’s second term. The president-elect is expected to invoke emergency powers to boost domestic energy production and impose hefty tariffs on key trade partners, alongside potential sanctions on Iran.
Crude markets remain volatile, with US sanctions on Russia driving Asian buyers to seek alternative supplies, Middle Eastern crude prices surging, and Brent’s backwardation widening. Speculators have ramped up long positions on Brent, while further sanctions targeting Russia’s oil industry could deepen market disruptions. Lower trading volumes are anticipated due to a US federal holiday.
Investment Insight
Energy markets face heightened volatility as Trump’s policies could disrupt global oil flows and bolster US energy exports. Investors should monitor geopolitical risks, particularly around Russia and Iran, while considering exposure to US energy producers poised to benefit from domestic production boosts.
Instagram and X Launch Video Tools Amid TikTok Ban Turmoil
Instagram unveiled “Edits,” a video editing app debuting in February, offering advanced creative tools like green screens and transitions. The announcement coincided with TikTok briefly going dark in the US due to a federal ban stemming from national security concerns. TikTok resumed service after President-elect Donald Trump paused enforcement, but its future hinges on a mandated sale of its US operations.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) rolled out a dedicated video tab to expand its presence in online content, including live streaming and longform videos. Instagram, already a key competitor with its Reels feature, took advantage of TikTok’s absence, running ads in Apple’s App Store targeting users searching for TikTok.
Investment Insight
The shifting video landscape presents opportunities for platforms like Instagram and X to capture disaffected TikTok creators and audiences. Investors should keep an eye on Meta and X’s video strategies, which could drive user engagement and advertising revenue growth.
South Korea Boosts Export Support Ahead of Trump’s Trade Policies
South Korea announced a record 360 trillion won ($247.74 billion) in export financing to shield its economy from potential fallout as Donald Trump begins his second term. Concerns over heightened trade uncertainty prompted the government to expand insurance against foreign exchange volatility and increase spending on trade initiatives.
Key sectors like semiconductors and rechargeable batteries face risks from Trump’s protectionist stance, while defense, nuclear energy, and shipbuilding are seen as areas for potential collaboration. Trump’s pledge to impose stiff tariffs on major trading partners is expected to impact South Korean companies, especially those with factories in Mexico, Canada, and China. Export growth is projected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, down from 8.1% last year.
Investment Insight
South Korea’s proactive support for exporters highlights the vulnerability of global trade to US protectionism. Investors should watch for shifts in export-dependent sectors like semiconductors and batteries, while opportunities may arise in defense and shipbuilding. Diversification within South Korean equities is key.
Bank of Japan Set to Raise Rates to 17-Year High
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its short-term policy rate to 0.5% this Friday, marking the highest level since 2008. The move signals the central bank’s confidence in Japan’s economic recovery and its commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. Markets have already priced in an 80% chance of a hike, following signals from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
The rate increase comes as inflation has exceeded the BOJ’s target for nearly three years, supported by wage growth and elevated import costs due to a weaker yen. However, uncertainties remain around U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, which could disrupt global markets. The BOJ’s policy trajectory will be closely watched during Ueda’s post-meeting briefing.
Investment Insight
A BOJ rate hike could strengthen the yen and pressure Japan’s exporters, while signaling a shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy. Investors should monitor Japanese equities, particularly export-reliant sectors, and consider opportunities in financials, which may benefit from rising rates.
Conclusion
Global markets are bracing for significant shifts as Donald Trump’s policies take center stage. Optimism over US-China relations lifted Asian equities, but trade tensions and protectionist measures could create headwinds for export-heavy economies like South Korea. Oil markets remain volatile amid Trump’s energy agenda, while Japan’s anticipated rate hike signals a turning point in its monetary policy. In the tech space, Instagram and X are seizing opportunities as TikTok faces regulatory uncertainty. Investors should stay vigilant, focusing on sectors tied to energy, trade, and tech, while navigating the broader geopolitical and economic developments shaping 2025.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 20, 2025: Donald Trump Inauguration, World Economic Forum in Davos begins
- January 21, 2025: Canada CPI, UK Jobless Claims
- January 23, 2025: South Korea GDP, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 17, 2025
Date Issued – 17th January 2025
Preview
Israel’s cabinet will deliberate a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire deal Friday, facing resistance from far-right allies as global mediators push for implementation before Donald Trump’s inauguration. In Asia, markets slipped after China reported 5% growth in 2024, with geopolitical tensions and slowing momentum raising concerns for 2025. Chinese buyers are shifting to cheaper Brazilian soybeans over US supplies amid tariff fears, further boosting Brazil’s agricultural dominance. Meanwhile, global diesel prices surged following new US sanctions on Russia, tightening supply and refining margins. Lastly, the yen is set for its strongest week in over a month on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, though analysts warn yen strength could be short-lived.
Ceasefire Deal Faces Political and Diplomatic Hurdles
Israel’s cabinet is set to meet Friday to decide on a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire deal after delays stemming from disagreements within Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition and alleged backtracking by Hamas. The deal, announced Wednesday, includes a 42-day truce, hostage exchanges, and aid access, with future talks planned for a permanent resolution. However, Netanyahu faces resistance from far-right allies threatening to leave the government if the deal leads to a lasting ceasefire. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed confidence the ceasefire will begin Sunday, just before Donald Trump’s inauguration, amidst mounting pressure from global mediators.
Investment Insight
Geopolitical stability in the Middle East remains fragile, with potential impacts on energy markets and regional equities. Investors should monitor developments closely, particularly in oil prices and defense-related stocks.
Asian Markets Slip as China Hits 5% Growth Target
Asian shares mostly fell Friday after China reported its economy grew 5% in 2024, meeting government targets but slowing from the prior year. While strong exports and manufacturing growth (up nearly 6%) supported the economy, analysts foresee further slowing in 2025. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats and restrictions on advanced technology exports, remain key risks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite dipped 0.1%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. saw gains of 3.9% on strong AI-related earnings despite broader index declines.
Investment Insight
Slowing Chinese growth and geopolitical tensions could impact Asia-Pacific markets in 2025. Investors should focus on sectors like semiconductors and energy while watching U.S.-China trade developments.
Chinese Buyers Shift to Cheaper Brazilian Soybeans Amid Trade Tensions
Chinese soybean processors are pivoting to Brazilian soybeans over U.S. supplies, bracing for potential import tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump’s second term. Brazil, already China’s top supplier, now accounts for nearly all Q1 shipments as competitive pricing and trade uncertainties drive demand. Brazilian soybeans, priced at $420/ton compared to $451/ton for U.S. cargoes, benefit from favorable weather, a record crop, and a weaker real. China’s Q1 soybean imports are expected to dip slightly year-over-year, with oversupply from 2024 curbing demand. U.S. soybean exporters face mounting challenges, with stockpiles projected to hit a five-year high.
Investment Insight
Brazil’s agricultural dominance strengthens, benefiting exporters and related industries. U.S. farm sectors may face downward pressure, while trade tensions could weigh on U.S. agriculture-related equities. Watch for currency shifts and crop forecasts in Brazil.
Global Diesel Prices Surge Amid New US Sanctions on Russia
Diesel prices and refining margins have spiked globally following the US’s latest sanctions on Russia, aimed at curbing its oil revenue. Analysts warn of potential disruptions to Russian diesel exports, with up to 150,000 barrels per day at risk. European diesel futures hit a 10-month high in backwardation, signaling tight supply, while US diesel futures surged 5% to a six-month peak of $111 per barrel. Asia’s diesel margins also rose but were tempered by higher crude costs. Europe has turned to suppliers in India, the Middle East, and the US, tightening competition as Turkey and Brazil may also seek alternative sources. Analysts expect the market to adjust, with Russian exports likely rerouted via non-sanctioned vessels.
Investment Insight
Tighter diesel supplies and rising refining margins could support energy stocks, particularly in refining and oil trading. Elevated fuel prices may pressure transportation and logistics sectors. Monitor geopolitical developments and crude price trends.
Yen Set for Strongest Week in Over a Month on BOJ Rate Hike Bets
The yen is on track for its best weekly gain since November, rising 1.5% against the dollar as markets anticipate a potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike next week. Persistent inflation, stronger wage growth, and official commentary have fueled speculation, with traders pricing in an 80% chance of a hike. However, analysts caution that yen strength could be short-lived if BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda adopts a dovish tone. Meanwhile, the dollar index dipped 0.6% this week as traders priced in potential Fed rate cuts in 2025, following easing U.S. inflation data. The yuan remained steady after China reported 5.4% Q4 growth, beating expectations, though economic headwinds persist.
Investment Insight
The yen’s rally could pressure Japanese exporters, while a potential BOJ rate hike might boost yields on Japanese government bonds. Currency volatility presents opportunities in forex markets, but investors should watch for BOJ and Fed policy shifts.
Conclusion
This week’s developments highlight the intersection of geopolitics and markets, from Israel’s fragile ceasefire talks to China’s slowing growth and shifting trade dynamics. U.S. sanctions on Russia are driving up diesel prices, while Brazil cements its role as an agricultural powerhouse with rising soybean exports to China. In currency markets, the yen rallies on Bank of Japan rate hike bets, underscoring global monetary policy shifts. As tensions and uncertainties persist, investors should remain vigilant, focusing on sectors like energy, semiconductors, and agriculture while closely monitoring geopolitical risks, central bank decisions, and commodity price movements in the weeks ahead.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 17, 2025: Eurozone CPI, US Industrial Production
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.