U.S.-China Tariff Levels to Hold Steady

Following recent trade negotiations, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick indicated Wednesday that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are unlikely to change in the near term. The statement comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led a second round of discussions with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in London. While both sides cited modest progress, Lutnick emphasized that the current tariff structure – averaging 51.1% on Chinese imports – is expected to remain stable, providing U.S. companies with much-needed predictability after years of fluctuating trade policy.

Investment Insight:

A stable tariff environment may help ease supply chain planning for multinationals operating across U.S./China corridors, even as geopolitical tensions persist. However, elevated duties continue to weigh on cost structures, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, EVs and consumer electronics. Investors should watch for any downstream margin compression or shifts in sourcing strategies as companies adjust to this new steady-state trade regime.

Chime IPO Values Fintech Firm at $11.6 Billion

Chime, one of the leading U.S. digital banking platforms, priced its IPO at $27 per share on Wednesday, giving the fintech company a valuation of $11.6 billion. The listing marks one of the largest fintech IPOs in recent quarters and signals renewed investor appetite for consumer financial technology names. Chime’s no-fee banking services and debit-focused model have attracted millions of customers, particularly among younger and lower-income demographics, fueling steady revenue growth even as the broader fintech sector faced regulatory and profitability pressures in recent years.

Investment Insight:

Chime’s successful IPO underscores growing confidence in fintech platforms that blend customer acquisition scale with disciplined lending exposure. While competition remains fierce in the digital banking space, Chime’s focus on fee-free services, customer retention and strong unit economics may offer resilience in a higher-rate, credit-sensitive environment. Investors should monitor its path toward sustainable profitability and product expansion post-IPO.

U.S. Budget Deficit Widens 14% Year-Over-Year to $316 Billion in May

The U.S. federal budget deficit totaled $316 billion in May, bringing the fiscal year’s cumulative shortfall to nearly $1.2 trillion – a 14% increase compared to the same period last year. Treasury data released Wednesday shows spending outpaced revenue growth, driven by higher interest payments on federal debt and continued mandatory outlays. Total government receipts reached $3.28 trillion year-to-date, while outlays swelled to $4.45 trillion. The rising deficit highlights the growing fiscal strain from both elevated borrowing costs and entitlement spending, reigniting debates over long-term debt sustainability.

Investment Insight:

Rising deficits continue to fuel upward pressure on Treasury supply and long-term yields, potentially complicating monetary policy calibration. Investors should monitor how sustained fiscal imbalances may affect credit markets, dollar strength, and inflation expectations – particularly as political discourse around fiscal discipline intensifies ahead of the 2026 elections.

Conclusion

Geopolitical maneuvering, corporate repositioning, and fiscal imbalances continue to drive cross-market volatility. As strategic energy deals, trade recalibrations and fintech capital raises play out alongside surging deficits and unresolved geopolitical risks, investors are forced to remain hyper-attentive to both macro and sector-specific catalysts. Expect heightened positioning around upcoming inflation prints, Fed commentary, and further corporate restructuring headlines.

Upcoming Dates to Watch

• June 13th: Eurozone Industrial Production
• June 17th: U.S. Retail Sales
• June 18th: U.K. CPI, Eurozone CPI

IBM Unveils Roadmap for Quantum Starling Supercomputer by 2029

IBM has announced its most ambitious quantum computing roadmap yet, unveiling plans to build the Quantum Starling — a fault-tolerant quantum supercomputer capable of running massive, error-corrected computations. Key milestones include the rollout of IBM’s new Quantum Nighthawk processor later this year, followed by a sequence of processors and adapters (Loon, Kookaburra, Cockatoo) through 2028. The Nighthawk chip is expected to scale from 5,000 to 15,000 operational gates within three years. The Starling system will be developed at IBM’s Poughkeepsie Lab in New York. The race in quantum hardware is intensifying as IBM moves to counter recent advances by Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.

Investment Insight:

IBM’s roadmap reflects both technological ambition and long-term capital commitment. While commercial quantum utility remains years away, IBM’s aggressive sequencing and first-mover positioning could secure future leadership in sectors ranging from defense to cryptography. Investors will monitor execution risk, competitive breakthroughs, and enterprise demand as quantum shifts from research to application.

Paramount to Cut 3.5% of U.S. Workforce Amid Restructuring

Paramount Global will reduce its U.S. workforce by 3.5%, impacting several hundred employees as the company continues streamlining ahead of its proposed merger with Skydance Media. The layoffs, announced Tuesday, follow last year’s 15% workforce reduction and reflect mounting pressure from cord-cutting and ongoing legal battles, including regulatory delays tied to a CBS interview with former VP Kamala Harris. Further international job reductions may follow. Paramount joins peers like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery in deeper cost-cutting as traditional media confronts accelerating structural challenges.

Investment Insight:

Paramount’s continued workforce reductions underscore the broader industry recalibration as legacy media shifts toward streaming-first models under increasing profitability pressure. The pending Skydance merger and regulatory headwinds add complexity, with execution and margin stabilization becoming key metrics for investor confidence.

Conclusion:

The signals remain clear: capital is being aggressively redeployed to fortify competitive positioning. Whether it’s Meta securing talent, GM managing policy exposure, IBM investing into long-cycle innovation, or Paramount restructuring for survival — leaders are actively redefining their cost bases and technology stacks. For investors, focus remains on execution, balance sheet discipline, and timing as these transformations accelerate across sectors.

Upcoming Dates to Watch:

• June 12th: U.S. CPI, ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference
• June 13th: Eurozone Industrial Production

Walmart Ditches Capital One, Launches Credit Cards via OnePay and Synchrony

Walmart’s fintech arm, OnePay, announced a new credit card program in partnership with Synchrony, marking a major shift after ending its relationship with Capital One. Starting this fall, Synchrony will issue and underwrite the new cards, while OnePay will manage the customer experience via its app. The rollout includes two products: a general-purpose Mastercard and a store-only card. Customers with weaker credit will be offered the latter.

Investment Insight:

The move underscores Walmart’s fintech ambitions as it expands OnePay’s ecosystem, which now includes savings, debit, and peer-to-peer payments. This partnership-centric model enables rapid scaling while targeting financially underserved customers – an area ripe for disruption and long-term growth.

Warner Bros. Discovery Will Split Into Two Companies by 2026

WBD will break into two public entities: one for streaming and studios (HBO Max, Warner Bros. films) and one for global networks (CNN, TNT Sports, Discovery). CEO David Zaslav will lead the streaming unit, while CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels will head the networks company.

The split mirrors Comcast’s strategy and aims to give each division more strategic focus. Though traditional TV still brings in strong cash flow, it’s losing long-term value – prompting a $9.1B write-down last year. The networks unit will carry most of the company’s debt, while both entities are expected to have strong liquidity.

Investment Insight:

This is a major play in a rapidly evolving media landscape. The split may unlock hidden value in both divisions – especially if streaming is able to reach profitability independently while the networks segment continues funding debt reduction. It also signals increasing openness to media M&A activity post-breakup.

Conclusion:

Every headline this week reflects companies redrawing their lines of control. Some are building new moats (OpenAI, Walmart), others are repositioning for speed and clarity (WBD, Merck), while giants like Apple are grappling with the cost of moving slower on frontier tech. For investors, the signals are strong: capital is flowing toward focus, infrastructure, and monetization-ready innovation. The names may be familiar – but their trajectories are evolving fast.

Upcoming Dates to Watch:

• June 11th: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
• June 12th: U.S. CPI, ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference
• June 13th: Eurozone Industrial Production

UBS May Face $26B Capital Hike Under Swiss Reforms

UBS could be required to raise up to $26 billion in additional capital over the next decade under proposed banking reforms by the Swiss government, according to Bloomberg. The most significant change would mandate the bank to hold 100% capital coverage for foreign subsidiaries – up from the current 60% – forcing UBS to shift as much as $23 billion into its Swiss-based entity. These measures aim to reinforce financial stability following UBS’s post-Credit Suisse dominance, but could pressure the bank’s balance sheet and strategic flexibility moving forward.

Investment Insight:

Capital reforms could tighten UBS’s financial latitude, particularly in expanding or restructuring foreign operations. Investors should watch for regulatory clarity and any capital management guidance from the bank. While phased over time, the proposed requirements may influence dividend policy, M&A plans, or balance sheet optimization strategies.

Conclusion

From geopolitics to corporate accountability, this week revealed how deeply policy and leadership decisions can impact investor confidence. While China’s rare earth easing and trade recalibrations offer tactical breathing room, Tesla and UBS highlight growing investor sensitivity to governance and regulation.

As volatility resurfaces in both equity and currency markets, staying focused on fundamentals and central bank positioning will be key.

Upcoming Dates to Watch

• June 11th: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
• June 12th: U.S. CPI, ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference
• June 13th: Eurozone Industrial Production

Global Markets Mixed Ahead of Key U.S. Jobs Report

World markets traded mixed Friday as investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for May – critical to gauging the economic impact of rising tariffs and softening demand. Futures on the S&P 500 and Dow rose modestly after Thursday’s pullback, while European equities drifted lower. Asian indexes posted mixed results, with gains in Japan and South Korea, but declines in Hong Kong and Australia. Sentiment remained cautious despite a reported easing of U.S.-China tensions, as investors seek confirmation that trade negotiations will yield lasting relief.

Investment Insight:

Markets are bracing for clarity on U.S. labor market strength and tariff policy. Short-term positioning should reflect event risk tied to Friday’s jobs data, while signs of durable U.S.-China trade progress could support risk assets. Still, volatility may persist until fundamentals clearly decouple from political noise.

MercadoLibre Expands Free Shipping to Boost Brazil Sales

MercadoLibre announced a major expansion of its free shipping policy in Brazil, lowering the minimum purchase threshold from 79 reais to 19 reais (approx. $3.40). The move, which now covers nearly all products on the platform, aims to boost sales and counter rising competition from Amazon, Shopee, and Temu. While the company has not disclosed cost projections, it has also cut seller shipping fees by up to 40% since late May. Brazil remains MercadoLibre’s largest market, accounting for over 50% of its e-commerce revenue.

Investment Insight:

MercadoLibre is leaning into margin pressure to defend market share in a highly competitive environment. Investors should watch for top-line acceleration and seller retention metrics to assess whether the aggressive shipping strategy translates into long-term gains. The initiative signals increased competitive intensity in LatAm e-commerce.

Lam Research Outperforms Despite Broader Market Decline

Lam Research (LRCX) posted modest gains in its latest session, edging up 0.12% even as the S&P 500 fell 0.53%. The stock has surged nearly 13% over the past month, outpacing both its sector and the broader index. Analysts forecast strong upcoming earnings growth – projecting a 48% YoY EPS increase and a 29% revenue jump. Positive estimate revisions have supported a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), while valuation metrics like a forward P/E of 21.17 and PEG of 1.19 suggest LRCX trades at a discount relative to peers in the semiconductor space.

Investment Insight:

Lam Research is showing strength ahead of earnings, supported by strong analyst revisions and sector momentum. With valuation multiples below industry averages and positive growth forecasts, the stock could continue to outperform if earnings confirm expectations. Watch closely for updates to revenue and margin guidance.

Conclusion

Volatility and recalibration remain central themes as political risk, monetary easing, and competitive pressures shape global markets. Key developments this week – from Tesla’s policy shock to India’s surprise rate cut – signal that investors must stay nimble amid shifting narratives. Corporate resilience, sector-specific growth, and central bank positioning will continue to drive sentiment.

Upcoming Dates to Watch

• June 7th: China Trade Balance
• June 10th: U.K. GDP
• June 11th: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Trump Administration Reinstates Travel Ban Covering 12 Nations

The Trump administration has issued a new proclamation barring entry to citizens from 12 countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, and Somalia, citing national security concerns. The order, effective Monday, also imposes partial restrictions on nationals from seven additional nations. The ban targets countries deemed to lack sufficient screening and information-sharing protocols. This policy echoes Trump’s 2017 travel ban, which was upheld by the Supreme Court before being revoked by President Biden. While some groups – such as permanent residents and family members with verified relationships – are exempt, the move has reignited political opposition and raised questions over its economic and diplomatic ramifications.

Investment Insight:

The travel ban may heighten geopolitical tension and immigration policy uncertainty, particularly in industries reliant on international talent or global mobility. Investors should watch for potential ripple effects in sectors like higher education, tech, and airlines, as well as signals from markets sensitive to rising policy-driven instability.

Dollar Slips on Weak Data, Trade Fears

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday amid soft economic data and growing uncertainty over global trade. May’s contraction in the services sector and slowing labor market conditions raised expectations of Fed rate cuts, with markets now pricing in 56 basis points of easing by year-end. The dollar index has dropped 9% YTD – its worst performance since 2017 – as fiscal concerns and policy unpredictability compound investor unease. With U.S. tariffs fluctuating and key trade negotiations still unresolved, currency markets are cautious ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and the ECB’s expected 25bps rate cut later today.

Investment Insight:

Dollar softness may persist as macro signals shift dovishly and trade tensions linger. Investors should monitor payroll data and rate commentary for confirmation of easing trajectories. Weakness in the greenback could benefit U.S. multinationals and commodities, while strengthening the relative appeal of European and emerging market currencies.

IEA Sees 6% Drop in Oil Investment

Global oil investment is forecast to decline by 6% in 2025, marking the first non-COVID-era pullback in a decade, according to the IEA’s latest World Energy Investment report. The retreat is driven by lower demand expectations, economic uncertainty, and weakening crude prices – exacerbated by President Trump’s disruptive tariff policies and rising OPEC+ output. U.S. tight oil spending is seeing the sharpest drop, while global refinery investment is set to hit a 10-year low at $30 billion. Natural gas spending will remain flat, but the LNG sector is on track for record capacity expansion between 2026 and 2028.

Investment Insight:

Energy investors should brace for a sectoral shift: traditional upstream oil is weakening, while LNG infrastructure is poised for long-term growth. Capital may increasingly flow toward gas plays and infrastructure-linked opportunities as demand dynamics evolve and decarbonization strategies accelerate globally.

Conclusion:

With supply chains tightening, crypto adoption accelerating and macro policy turning more volatile, investors face a landscape defined by disruption and recalibration. The dollar’s softness, oil’s declining capex, and the geopolitical overhang from trade and travel policy add pressure – but also create opportunity in structurally shifting sectors like LNG and compliant digital finance.

Upcoming Dates to Watch:

• June 6th: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. Unemployment Rate
• June 7th: China Trade Balance
• June 10th: U.K. GDP

Nvidia Surpasses Microsoft as Market Cap King at $3.45 Trillion

Nvidia surged past Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, closing Tuesday at a record $141.40 per share and lifting its market capitalization to $3.444 trillion. The stock rallied 3% on the day, extending a powerful month-long run driven by blowout Q1 earnings and sustained investor confidence in the AI chipmaker’s dominance, despite geopolitical headwinds. Nvidia’s revenue soared 69% year-over-year to $44.06 billion, underscoring robust demand for its AI hardware. Broader chip stocks also rallied, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 2% and Micron gaining 4%, reflecting bullish sentiment across the sector even as new US chip export controls cloud the outlook for sales in China.

Investment Insight

Nvidia’s ascent signals continued investor conviction in the AI hardware cycle, with market leadership shifting decisively to firms positioned at the core of AI infrastructure. Despite export restrictions, the market is pricing in Nvidia’s ability to outgrow regulatory setbacks through product leadership and global demand. Investors should monitor the sector for potential policy-driven volatility but remain focused on structural AI tailwinds powering long-term semiconductor growth.

Market price: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA): USD 141.22

Alphabet Faces Legal Tail Risk as Barclays Flags Potential 25% Stock Slide

Alphabet could see its stock fall by as much as 25% in a worst-case legal scenario, according to Barclays, which warned that a forced divestiture of Google Chrome would significantly impair the tech giant’s earnings power. While considered a low-probability event, a federal remedy in the ongoing antitrust trial could mandate the sale of Chrome—responsible for 35% of Google’s search revenue and accessed by roughly 4 billion users. Barclays estimates such a divestiture could reduce earnings per share by over 30%, with no current investor pricing in the risk. Alternative remedies, like opening Google’s index to competitors or unwinding traffic acquisition deals, could also dent EPS by up to 20%, though with less severe equity downside.

Investment Insight

Alphabet’s antitrust overhang introduces a material tail risk that could reshape its search dominance. While a Chrome divestiture remains unlikely, the increasing legal scrutiny justifies a risk premium. Investors may consider de-risking exposure or hedging positions ahead of the court’s remedy decision, as potential structural changes to Alphabet’s business model could weigh on long-term valuation multiples.

Market price: Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG): USD 167.71

Barclays Lifts S&P 500 Target to 6,050 on Easing Trade Risks, Earnings Optimism

Barclays raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,050 from 5,900, citing reduced trade uncertainty and expectations for normalized earnings growth in 2026. The revised forecast implies a modest 1.3% upside from Tuesday’s close of 5,970.37. The upgrade aligns with recent target hikes from Goldman Sachs, UBS, RBC, and Deutsche Bank, following a strong May rally that saw the index gain 6.2%—its best monthly performance since November 2023. Barclays maintained its 2025 EPS forecast at $262 and introduced a 2026 target of 6,700, supported by a projected $285 EPS, anticipating that tariff-related headwinds will taper off by next year.

Investment Insight

The upward revision signals growing institutional confidence in the resilience of U.S. equities, even as trade and policy risks persist. With inflation moderating and earnings stabilizing, the S&P 500 appears on a path toward steady multiple expansion. Investors may consider leaning into cyclical and growth sectors that stand to benefit from a normalized earnings environment in 2026, while remaining selective amid modest near-term upside.

Chinese Carriers Weigh Major Airbus Order Amid Aviation Rebound

Chinese airlines are reportedly evaluating a large-scale purchase of Airbus SE aircraft, potentially amounting to hundreds of jets, according to Bloomberg News. The deal, which could be announced as early as next month, would mark a significant boost for Airbus as demand for air travel in Asia continues to rebound. While the report remains unconfirmed, shares of Airbus (EADSY) rose 1.6% on the news. A major order from China would signal improving trade dynamics with Europe and deepen Airbus’s foothold in one of the world’s most critical aviation markets.

Investment Insight

A multibillion-dollar order from Chinese carriers would reinforce Airbus’s market leadership in Asia and inject further momentum into the aerospace sector. Investors should monitor confirmation of the deal and any geopolitical ramifications, particularly in the context of EU-China trade relations. Increased visibility into long-haul aircraft demand could also lift sentiment across the broader aviation supply chain.

Market price: Airbus SE (AIR): EUR 170.72

Conclusion

Markets remain resilient in the face of policy uncertainty, with investor sentiment buoyed by strong corporate earnings, cooling inflation, and renewed confidence in tech leadership. Nvidia’s ascent underscores the market’s conviction in AI-driven growth, while Alphabet’s legal overhang highlights the risks of regulatory disruption. Upward revisions to S&P 500 targets reflect growing optimism for 2026, even as near-term risks persist. Meanwhile, potential Airbus orders from China suggest a rebound in global demand and shifting trade dynamics. As key economic data looms, investors are positioning with cautious optimism, balancing structural growth narratives against evolving macro and geopolitical pressures.

Upcoming Dates to Watch

• June 5th, 2025: Europe PPI, US Jobless claims
• June 6th, 2025: Europe GDP

Airbus Deliveries Decline Amid Supply Chain Strain

Airbus delivered approximately 51 aircraft in May, marking a 4% year-over-year decline, according to industry sources. Year-to-date deliveries stand at 243 planes, down 5% from the same period in 2024. The world’s largest aircraft manufacturer is under mounting pressure to meet its full-year target of 820 deliveries, a 7% increase, as airlines voice frustration over persistent supply chain disruptions. Delays, partly driven by engine shortages, have drawn sharp criticism from carriers like Saudi Arabia’s flyadeal, which labeled the setbacks “inexcusable.” Airbus anticipates stabilization of supply issues by summer, but tensions remain high as the company prepares to release its official May performance report on June 5.

Investment Insight: Supply chain bottlenecks highlight ongoing challenges for the aerospace sector, with potential ripple effects on airline growth plans. Investors should monitor Airbus’s progress toward delivery targets, as any further slowdowns could weigh on its valuation. Long-term demand for air travel remains robust, but near-term disruptions suggest opportunities may lie in suppliers poised to benefit from easing constraints.

Market price: Airbus SE (AIR): EUR 162.86

China’s Auto Dealers Push Back Against Inventory Dumping

Chinese car dealers are urging automakers to curb excessive inventory transfers, citing severe cash flow constraints and profit pressures amid intensifying price wars. The China Auto Dealers Chamber of Commerce highlighted worsening conditions as aggressive discounting in the second quarter forces some dealerships to shut down. The chamber proposed more reasonable production and sales targets, shorter payment cycles, and an end to coercive dealer closures disguised as network optimization. The ongoing price war, which prompted a government appeal for restraint, has already claimed casualties, including a major BYD dealer in Shandong province, where at least 20 stores were shuttered.

Investment Insight: The escalating tensions in China’s auto sector underscore risks to both automakers and their supply chains during prolonged price wars. Investors should exercise caution with companies exposed to the Chinese market, particularly in traditional and electric vehicle segments. As the industry faces pressure to adopt sustainable sales practices, long-term opportunities may emerge in firms focused on operational efficiency and dealer support.

Deutsche Bank Raises S&P 500 Target Amid Optimism on Earnings and Tariffs

Deutsche Bank has lifted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,550, up from 6,150, citing reduced tariff-related earnings drag and a resilient US economy. The revised projection suggests a 10.35% upside from the index’s last close of 5,935.94. This upgrade aligns with a broader trend among Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, and RBC, which have also raised their targets in recent weeks. The S&P 500 rallied in May, posting its strongest monthly gain since late 2023, driven by easing tariff concerns, robust corporate earnings, and subdued inflation. However, Deutsche Bank cautioned that the rally could face volatility due to trade policy uncertainties.

Investment Insight: The wave of upward revisions reflects growing confidence in the US equity market’s resilience, but investors should remain vigilant. While reduced tariff impacts and strong earnings provide bullish tailwinds, the potential for sharp pullbacks tied to trade tensions warrants a balanced approach. Consider maintaining exposure to growth sectors while hedging against volatility with defensive plays or diversified strategies.

Japanese Equity Funds See Largest Weekly Outflows Since 2007

Japanese equity funds witnessed $7.49 billion in net outflows in the week ending May 28, marking the sharpest withdrawal since July 2007. Investors capitalized on May’s rally, driven by earlier US-China trade optimism, while others grew wary of weakening earnings potential. Domestic institutions, including life insurers and pension funds, led the withdrawals, rebalancing portfolios toward bonds. A 10% yen appreciation against the US dollar this year has pressured export profitability, with analysts trimming forward 12-month earnings estimates for Japanese firms by 1.8% in the past month. Despite ongoing corporate governance reforms, improvements in profitability remain slow, with Japan’s return on equity still lagging global peers.

Investment Insight: The sharp outflows reflect short-term profit-taking and cautious sentiment amid yen strength and softer earnings prospects. While long-term investors may find opportunities in Japan’s governance reforms and undervalued equities, near-term headwinds suggest focusing on defensive sectors or exporters less reliant on currency stability.

Conclusion

Markets remain defined by a mix of optimism and caution as investors navigate trade uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, and shifting economic data. Upward revisions to the S&P 500 reflect confidence in US resilience, but volatility persists amid geopolitical risks. In Asia, Japan faces profit-taking pressures and currency challenges, while China’s auto sector grapples with price wars and dealer unrest. Airbus’s delivery struggles further highlight global supply chain fragility. As the week unfolds, key labor data and corporate developments will shape sentiment. Investors should stay nimble, balancing exposure to growth opportunities with defensive strategies to weather near-term market fluctuations.

Upcoming Dates to Watch

• June 3rd, 2025: Swiss CPI, South Korea GDP, Australia GDP
• June 5th, 2025: Europe PPI, US Jobless claims
• June 6th, 2025: Europe GDP

Gold Surges as Trade Tensions and Tariff Fears Stoke Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices climbed sharply in early Monday trading, buoyed by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and growing uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policy. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,315.68/oz, while futures gained 0.7%, extending haven inflows amid deteriorating hopes for a lasting trade agreement. China’s rejection of Trump’s recent accusations and the threat of higher tariffs on commodities—including a proposed hike on steel and aluminum imports—rattled investor sentiment. A weaker dollar, following dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, further supported metals broadly. Copper and silver prices also advanced, while platinum lagged, reflecting mixed demand signals across the commodity complex.

Investment Insight: The renewed bid for gold underscores market sensitivity to geopolitical friction and policy unpredictability. With trade talks stalling and tariff rhetoric intensifying, gold’s appeal as a hedge is likely to remain intact. Investors should consider maintaining exposure to precious metals as macro risks persist and rate cut expectations firm up. However, gains may face resistance if trade negotiations stabilize or dollar strength returns.

Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $105K After Weekend Selloff on Trade Tensions

Bitcoin held steady around $104,640 early Monday, pausing after a sharp weekend decline driven by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and renewed risk aversion. The cryptocurrency fell from record highs above $111,000 as profit-taking intensified and ETF flow data pointed to institutional outflows late last week. Market sentiment was further weighed down by President Trump’s threat to double tariffs on steel and aluminum and the stalling of trade negotiations with Beijing. Despite limited direct exposure to tariffs, crypto assets mirrored broader risk-off moves, particularly in tech-linked markets. Altcoins followed suit, with Ether, XRP, and Polygon posting modest declines.

Investment Insight: Bitcoin’s recent retreat highlights its increasing correlation with macroeconomic sentiment and equity markets. While regulatory optimism fueled May’s rally, mounting geopolitical risks and institutional de-risking may cap near-term upside. Investors should monitor ETF flows and policy signals closely, as crypto remains vulnerable to shifts in global risk appetite. Strategic allocations may benefit from a more cautious stance amid elevated volatility.

Conclusion

Markets are entering June with renewed caution as geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty cloud the outlook across asset classes. While May delivered outsized gains—particularly in tech and crypto—investors are now navigating a more complex environment marked by shifting central bank signals, tariff volatility, and signs of decelerating global growth. Defensive positioning is reemerging, with flows favoring havens like gold and selective commodity exposure. As key economic data and policy decisions loom, near-term market direction will hinge on clarity from Washington, Beijing, and the Fed. Strategic flexibility and disciplined risk management remain essential in this increasingly reactive market landscape.

Upcoming Dates to Watch

• June 2nd, 2025: Swiss GDP, HK Retail Sales, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, South Korea CPI
• June 3rd, 2025: Swiss CPI, South Korea GDP, Australia GDP

Boeing Surges to 15-Month High on China Delivery News

Boeing (BA) shares soared over 3% to close at $208, marking their highest level since February 2024 after the company confirmed plans to resume aircraft deliveries to China next month. Optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade deal and increased production targets for the 737 Max further boosted sentiment. The stock has climbed 62% from its April low and is up 18% year-to-date. Analysts are closely watching technical levels, including support around $199 and $187, and resistance near $234 and $265, as Boeing continues its upward trajectory.

Investment Insight

Boeing’s breakout above a flag pattern signals bullish momentum, but overbought technical indicators suggest potential near-term consolidation. Investors should monitor key support levels for entry opportunities, while resistance zones near $234 and $265 could present profit-taking areas. Long-term prospects remain strong, supported by renewed demand in China and production expansion plans.

Market price: Boeing Co (BA): USD 208.18

China’s Manufacturing Sector Contracts Amid Trade Tensions

China’s manufacturing activity likely contracted for the second consecutive month in May, with the official PMI projected at 49.5, according to a Reuters poll. This marks a slight improvement from April’s 49.0 but remains below the 50-point threshold separating growth from contraction. Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and EU, including U.S. tariffs of 145% and EU dumping investigations, are weighing on sentiment as policymakers juggle sluggish domestic demand and deflationary pressures. Analysts anticipate additional monetary and fiscal stimulus to stabilize growth, with Beijing maintaining its 5% annual GDP target despite mounting external headwinds.

Investment Insight

China’s faltering manufacturing sector highlights risks for global supply chains and commodity markets, particularly as trade tensions intensify. Investors should monitor policy stimulus efforts and PMI data for signs of stabilization. Export-dependent industries and commodities may face downside pressure, while sectors tied to domestic consumption and fiscal stimulus, such as infrastructure and renewable energy, could offer growth opportunities.

Gold Slips Ahead of Key US Data Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Gold prices fell 0.8% on Friday, extending weekly losses to nearly 2%, as traders positioned ahead of the US PCE price index release, a key inflation gauge. The metal struggled to break above resistance at $3,328, according to analysts, with technical factors contributing to the pullback. Meanwhile, renewed US-China trade tensions and uncertainties over President Trump’s tariff policies continue to bolster gold’s long-term haven appeal. Spot gold traded at $3,300 per ounce, while the stronger dollar pressured other precious metals, including silver, palladium, and platinum.

Investment Insight

Despite short-term declines, gold remains a critical hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly as US-China trade tensions persist. Investors should consider using recent dips as buying opportunities for portfolio diversification, focusing on long-term allocations to safe-haven assets. Monitoring inflation data and trade developments will be key to navigating near-term price movements.

Japan’s JERA Eyes LNG Imports From Alaska Amid Trade Talks

Japan’s largest LNG importer, JERA Co., expressed interest in sourcing liquefied natural gas from the $44 billion Alaska LNG export project, a key initiative backed by the Biden administration. While details remain scarce, the move signals progress for the long-delayed project as Japan seeks to strengthen trade ties with the US. The Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference has drawn high-level delegations from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, with Asian buyers leveraging the event to align with Washington amid ongoing trade negotiations.

Investment Insight

The Alaska LNG project may gain traction as Asian energy importers seek diversified supply sources and stronger ties with the US. Investors should monitor developments in long-term contracts, which are crucial for advancing the project. LNG demand in Asia remains robust, offering opportunities in energy infrastructure and export-focused ventures tied to US-Asia trade relations.

Conclusion

Markets remain on edge as trade tensions and tariff uncertainties dominate headlines, impacting everything from stock futures to commodity prices. Boeing’s rally underscores the potential for strategic gains amid improving U.S.-China trade prospects, while China’s contracting manufacturing sector highlights risks to global supply chains. Gold’s recent pullback offers a reminder of its enduring role as a hedge against volatility, and Japan’s interest in Alaska LNG signals shifting energy dynamics in Asia. As key inflation data looms, investors should stay vigilant, focusing on defensive strategies and long-term opportunities aligned with evolving geopolitical and economic trends.

Upcoming Dates to Watch

• May 30th, 2025: German CPI
• May 30th, 2025: Chinese Composite PMI
• May 30th, 2025: Chinese Manufacturing PMI
• May 30th, 2025: PCE Index