Key Points

• China’s Factory Setback: Manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction, while services turned negative, highlighting weak domestic demand despite stronger export orders.
• Black Friday Fatigue: Spending over the “Turkey 5” weekend declined, foot traffic stagnated, and widespread discounts pressured retail margins.
• Asian Markets Retreat: Stronger yen and 17-year-high Japanese bond yields hint at a potential BOJ rate hike, dampening risk appetite despite U.S. Fed cut hopes.
• Oil Rebounds on Supply Risks: Crude gained ~2% as pipeline disruptions and U.S.–Venezuela tensions countered the broader oversupply narrative.

China PMIs Flag Renewed Factory Slowdown Despite Export Uptick

China’s private RatingDog manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 in November, unexpectedly dipping into contraction and missing forecasts of 50.5, as new orders and production stalled despite the fastest rise in export orders in eight months. The survey reinforces the official PMI, which showed an eighth straight month of factory contraction and the first decline in non-manufacturing activity since 2022, underscoring how weak domestic demand, a deep property slump and falling investment are dragging growth toward sub-4.5% in Q4. While a recent U.S.–China trade truce has eased external uncertainty, equities’ modest gains suggest investors remain cautious about a durable demand recovery.

Black Friday Loses Its Punch as Promotions Stretch and Shoppers Pull Back

Black Friday is increasingly a muted, drawn-out promotion rather than a single, high-impact retail event, as U.S. consumers spend less over the Thanksgiving “Turkey 5” and foot traffic stagnates despite resilient online sales. Retailers such as Walmart, Target and Kohl’s now spread discounts across November, diluting the urgency of one-day “doorbusters” and easing staffing and inventory pressures. Yet weaker real spending, “rampant discounting” and overlapping promotions have eroded trust in deals, with millennials and Gen X less likely to concentrate purchases on Black Friday. The result is steadier but softer holiday demand, pressuring margins and favouring scale players with strong e-commerce and pricing analytics.

Asian Stocks Slip as Yen Strengthens on BOJ Hints and Risk Appetite Cools

Asian equities started December on the back foot, with the Nikkei down about 2% and regional indices softer as a firmer yen and rising Japanese government bond yields signaled growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments pushed the yen to around 155.55 per dollar and drove 2- and 10-year JGB yields to their highest levels since 2008, reinforcing a risk-off tone that also saw S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fall 0.7%–0.8% and bitcoin and ether drop more than 5%. While Hang Seng gains reflected hopes for more China stimulus after weak PMIs, global sentiment remains tied to upcoming U.S. data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments, even as traders still price an 87% chance of a December rate cut and oil edges higher after OPEC+ kept output unchanged.

Oil Climbs as Supply Risks Challenge Glut Narrative

Oil prices rebounded around 2%, with Brent at $63.64 and WTI at $59.82, as investors shifted focus from oversupply fears to mounting geopolitical risks. Exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which handles about 1% of global supply, were disrupted after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged infrastructure at Russia’s Black Sea terminal, while fresh U.S.–Venezuela tensions added another layer of uncertainty. OPEC+’s decision to keep output unchanged for Q1 2026 provided additional support, temporarily reversing a four-month losing streak and signaling that perceived supply risks can still outweigh demand and surplus concerns in shaping oil sentiment.

Conclusion

Monday signals point to a market still searching for balance between weaker demand and evolving policy and supply dynamics. China’s unexpected manufacturing contraction and soft services data reinforce a slower domestic growth profile, even as exports offer a modest offset. In developed markets, a diluted Black Friday and softer Turkey 5 spending highlight a more cautious consumer, pressuring retail margins. In Asia, a firmer yen and higher JGB yields suggest the BOJ may finally shift policy, tempering risk appetite. Meanwhile, oil’s rebound on fresh supply risks shows geopolitics can still quickly override the prevailing glut narrative.

Investment Insights

• China Growth: Focus on Quality, Not Just Beta: Slowing PMIs and weak domestic demand point to a more selective China allocation.
• Retail: Margin Discipline Over Headline Sales: With Black Friday stretched into a “discount season” and Turkey 5 spending falling, the winners are likely retailers that use data to target promotions, protect margins and lean on omnichannel scale rather than chasing volume at any price.
• Japan: BOJ Shift as a Potential Regime Change: A stronger yen and higher JGB yields suggest Japan is edging toward more conventional monetary policy.
• Energy: Supply Shocks Still Matter: Oil’s rebound on pipeline damage and geopolitical tension shows supply risks can quickly reprice crude even in a “glut” narrative. Energy exposure should consider both downside from slower global growth and upside optionality from sudden disruptions.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 5, 2025	U.S. Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls)	Key read on U.S. labor-market strength, wage trends and recession risk; can shift expectations for Fed policy and bond yields.
December 10, 2025	U.S. CPI & Federal Reserve Rate Decision (FOMC)	Combined inflation print and Fed decision set the tone for global risk appetite, dollar direction and rate expectations into 2026.
December 11, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Tracks pipeline price pressures from companies; an upside surprise could challenge Fed-dovish market pricing after the CPI/FOMC day.
December 18, 2025	European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting	Crucial update on eurozone rates and new ECB projections, with implications for EUR moves, European bond yields and global equity rotation.

Key Points

• CME Group Outage: CME Group halted trading across major futures and options markets after a data-center cooling failure, briefly freezing key benchmarks in oil, Treasurys and equity indices and highlighting operational risk in core market infrastructure.
• U.S. Drug Price Cuts: Newly negotiated Medicare prices under the Inflation Reduction Act will sharply cut U.S. list prices for blockbuster drugs such as Ozempic, increasing long-term U.S. margin pressure for Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, GSK and other global pharma names.
• Baidu’s AI Chip Push: Baidu’s Kunlunxin unit is emerging as a leading domestic AI chip supplier in China, positioned to capture strong, supply-constrained demand as U.S. curbs limit access to Nvidia GPUs.
• Trump’s Immigration Pledge: President Trump’s pledge to “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries” and restrict benefits for noncitizens adds a new layer of U.S. policy uncertainty around immigration, labor supply and social stability.

CME Outage Halts Key Futures Markets, Tests Resilience of Global Price Discovery

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange temporarily halted trading across its Globex futures and options markets, FX platform EBS and BMD contracts after a cooling issue at a CyrusOne data center, freezing prices in benchmarks such as WTI crude, U.S. 10-year Treasurys and S&P 500 futures.

The disruption, hitting during a thin post-holiday session, is affecting Asian and European traders most and may delay visibility on moves in affected contracts until systems are fully restored.

While similar outages have occurred in the past, the episode highlights operational risk in increasingly concentrated market infrastructure and the potential for short-term distortions in liquidity and price discovery.

U.S. Drug Price Cuts Sharpen Focus on European Pharma’s U.S. Exposure

Medicare’s latest round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act is forcing European pharma majors to confront mounting U.S. pricing pressure just as the Trump administration pushes further with “Most Favored Nation” policies.

From 2027, Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic will see a 71% list-price cut for Medicare, while AstraZeneca’s Calquence and GSK’s Trelegy and Breo face 40%–83% discounts, trimming federal spending by an estimated 36%.

With 40%–55% of these firms’ sales tied to the U.S., investors must weigh margin compression against potential volume upside, particularly in fast-growing obesity drugs where lower prices could unlock broader access.

Baidu’s Kunlun Chips Move to the Center of China’s AI Push

Baidu is rapidly emerging as a key domestic AI chip player as Beijing looks to fill the gap left by U.S. curbs on Nvidia’s most advanced GPUs.

Through its Kunlunxin unit, Baidu is rolling out a five-year roadmap for Kunlun AI chips, already used alongside Nvidia hardware in its data centers to power ERNIE models and sold to third-party data center and telecom customers.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan see Kunlun as one of China’s best-positioned AI chip platforms, with sales forecast to grow sixfold to around $1.1 billion by 2026 and potential valuation estimates near $28 billion, anchored by strong, supply-constrained domestic AI demand.

Trump Immigration Pledge Raises Policy Uncertainty After DC Shooting

President Trump signaled a sharper turn in U.S. immigration policy, vowing on social media to “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries,” cancel federal benefits for noncitizens and broaden grounds for deportation, following a shooting near the White House involving an Afghan national.

The administration has already suspended immigration requests involving Afghan nationals and previously imposed a travel ban covering 19 countries.

While details and legal feasibility remain unclear, the escalation underscores rising policy risk around migration and labor flows, with potential implications for sectors reliant on immigrant workers and for broader perceptions of U.S. political and social stability.

Conclusion

Friday’s developments highlight how market plumbing, policy and technology are intersecting to reshape the investment landscape.

The CME outage is a reminder that operational risk in core trading infrastructure can briefly disrupt price discovery, even in otherwise calm conditions.

In healthcare, U.S. Medicare price cuts and “Most Favored Nation” ambitions sharpen the focus on U.S. earnings reliance for European pharma.

In China, Baidu’s Kunlun chips show how export controls are accelerating domestic AI ecosystems rather than stopping them.

Finally, sharp shifts in U.S. immigration rhetoric add another layer of uncertainty around future labor supply and political risk premia.

Investment Insights

• Pharma: Volume vs. Price in the U.S.: Medicare cuts and “Most Favored Nation” ideas confirm that high U.S. drug prices are under structural pressure.
• China AI: Hardware Shift, Not Demand Loss: Baidu’s rise in AI chips underlines that U.S. export controls are redirecting, rather than eliminating, Chinese AI investment. Exposure to AI should consider not just global leaders, but also regional ecosystems that are being forced to localize hardware and infrastructure.
• Immigration and Growth: Harsher U.S. immigration rhetoric raises questions for future labor supply, particularly in sectors reliant on foreign workers. Over time, tighter migration could support higher wage pressures and alter where global companies choose to base labor-intensive operations.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 28, 2025	Canada Q3 GDP	Key update on Canadian growth that feeds into North American demand assumptions, commodity exposure and Bank of Canada policy expectations.
December 1, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (November)	High-frequency gauge of U.S. factory activity and new orders, closely watched for signs of cyclical momentum and confirmation of a soft-landing narrative.
December 2, 2025	Eurozone CPI (Flash, November) & Unemployment Rate (October)	Core inputs for ECB policy: inflation and labour slack together shape the outlook for further easing and the euro area’s real-rate environment.
December 2, 2025	U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (October)	Key barometer of U.S. labour-market tightness; a cooling openings rate would support the case for a more dovish Fed path in 2026.
December 3, 2025	U.S. ADP Employment Report & ISM Services PMI (November)	Early read on U.S. jobs and services-sector strength ahead of the official payrolls report, important for validating or challenging current Fed rate-cut expectations.

Key Points

• China’s Industrial Profits Fall: Industrial profits in China dropped 5.5% year on year in October, the steepest decline in five months, highlighting economic fragility, weak domestic demand, and deflationary pressure.
• AI Could Replace 11.7% of U.S. Wages: MIT’s “Iceberg Index” study shows AI can already replace tasks worth 11.7% of U.S. wages, affecting routine jobs across multiple sectors—not just tech.
• Markets Eye December Fed Cut: Global stocks are up amid an 85% market-implied probability of a December Fed rate cut, sustaining risk appetite despite intervention-sensitive yen levels.
• China Shifts AI Training Abroad: Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance are moving AI training overseas to avoid U.S. chip curbs, revealing the reach of export controls and China’s strategic adaptation.

China’s Industrial Profits Slide as Growth Momentum Weakens

China’s industrial profits fell 5.5% year on year in October, the sharpest drop in five months and a reversal from double-digit gains in August and September, as renewed U.S. trade tensions and softer domestic demand weighed on margins. Profit growth for the first ten months slowed to 1.9%, with mining earnings down nearly 28% even as manufacturing and utilities posted mid-single-digit gains, underscoring diverging sector dynamics. Combined with a sub-50 manufacturing PMI, slowing retail sales and weak investment, the data reinforce a picture of an economy flirting with mild recession and lingering deflation risks, even as Beijing aims to hold GDP growth near 5%.

MIT Model Maps AI Exposure to 11.7% of U.S. Wages

A new MIT study using the “Iceberg Index” estimates that current AI systems could already replace tasks equivalent to 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or about $1.2 trillion in wages, with exposure extending far beyond tech into routine roles in finance, HR, logistics and office administration. By simulating 151 million workers and 32,000 skills across 923 occupations and 3,000 counties, the model offers policymakers a granular view of where disruption may emerge and how reskilling dollars might be targeted. Early adopters such as Tennessee, North Carolina and Utah are using the tool to test training and investment strategies before committing large-scale funding.

Stocks Edge Higher as Markets Price in December Fed Cut and Watch Yen Risks

Global equities gained modestly in thin holiday trading, supported by rising confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, with futures now implying around an 85% probability. European and Asian indices traded higher as tech and defense shares offset weaker healthcare names, while investors largely looked past earlier concerns about an AI bubble. The dollar softened against most majors but the yen remained in focus near 156 per dollar, with markets on alert for possible intervention and a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. With U.S. data distorted by the recent shutdown, investors are leaning heavily on Fed commentary, even as bitcoin rebounds above $90,000 and gold eases slightly.

Chinese Tech Groups Shift AI Training Offshore to Sidestep U.S. Chip Curbs

Chinese internet giants including Alibaba and ByteDance are reportedly training their latest large language models in Southeast Asian data centers to access Nvidia GPUs and work around U.S. export restrictions. According to the Financial Times, offshore training via leased, non-Chinese facilities has increased since Washington tightened rules on Nvidia’s H20 chip in April, highlighting how firms are re-routing AI workloads rather than slowing buildouts. DeepSeek, which stockpiled Nvidia chips before the bans, remains an exception, training domestically and collaborating with Huawei-led chipmakers, underscoring a dual track of overseas dependence and accelerated efforts to develop competitive Chinese AI hardware.

Conclusion

Global markets remain supported by rate-cut expectations, but today’s data point to underlying structural shifts and vulnerabilities. China’s profit slump and lingering deflation risk highlight a growth model under pressure just as its tech giants move AI training offshore to work around U.S. chip controls. In the U.S., MIT’s Iceberg Index underlines how current AI can already reshape a meaningful share of wages, raising medium-term questions for employment, productivity and policy. Against this backdrop, an anticipated Fed cut is a tailwind, but not a cure-all: investors need to distinguish between cyclical relief rallies and deeper regime changes globally ahead.

Investment Insights

• China Risk Is Shifting, Not Disappearing: Slower industrial profits and deflation pressure suggest China remains a drag on global growth, even as some sectors (manufacturing, utilities, autos, AI) hold up better.
• AI Is an Economic Force, Not Just a Market Story: If current AI can already touch more than 10% of U.S. wages, investors should think in terms of winners in productivity (software, automation, training) and potential pressure points in routine white-collar roles.
• Rate Cuts Help, but Don’t Solve Structural Issues: A likely Fed cut is supportive for risk assets in the short term, but it does not change longer-term questions around growth, demographics and technology-driven disruption. Balancing cyclical opportunities with structural themes remains key.
• Geopolitics Is Embedded in AI Supply Chains: Chinese firms moving AI training overseas to access Nvidia chips show how regulation and export controls are now part of the technology investment landscape. Investors should factor policy risk into AI hardware and cloud exposures.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 28, 2025	Canada Q3 GDP	Key update on Canadian growth that feeds into North American demand assumptions, commodity exposure and Bank of Canada policy expectations.
December 1, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (November)	High-frequency gauge of U.S. factory activity and new orders, closely watched for signs of cyclical momentum and confirmation of a soft-landing narrative.
December 2, 2025	Eurozone CPI (Flash, November) & Unemployment Rate (October)	Core inputs for ECB policy: inflation and labour slack together shape the outlook for further easing and the euro area’s real-rate environment.
December 2, 2025	U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (October)	Key barometer of U.S. labour-market tightness; a cooling openings rate would support the case for a more dovish Fed path in 2026.
December 3, 2025	U.S. ADP Employment Report & ISM Services PMI (November)	Early read on U.S. jobs and services-sector strength ahead of the official payrolls report, important for validating or challenging current Fed rate-cut expectations.

Key Points

• Tech Valuations vs. Earnings: U.S. tech stocks now represent 31% of the S&P 500’s market value but contribute only 21% of earnings, highlighting valuation risks and dependence on continued AI-driven profit growth.
• Asia-Pacific Rally on Fed Cut Bets: Regional markets rose alongside Wall Street on growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut, with Japan, Korea and others gaining despite stock-specific turbulence.
• Australia’s Inflation Surprise: October CPI in Australia came in hotter than expected at 3.8%, led by housing and electricity costs, likely postponing any rate-cut conversations by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
• U.S. Housing Delistings Surge: Home sellers are pulling listings at the fastest pace in a decade as price cuts and weak demand weigh on the housing market, pointing to rate-sensitive fragility beneath headline numbers.

U.S. Tech’s Market Weight Outpaces Its Earnings Power

U.S. tech stocks now make up just over 31% of S&P 500 market value while contributing about 21% of index earnings, a widening gap that is heightening concern over stretched valuations. The Nasdaq trades at roughly 29x forward earnings, well above its 10-year average and the broader S&P 500, even as tech’s share of profits has slipped from 22.8% three quarters ago. Analysts note that recent strength, led by AI names, leaves the sector increasingly dependent on sustained, rapid earnings growth; any disappointment could trigger mid- to potentially double-digit declines given tech’s outsized index weight and role in passive portfolios.

Asia Equities Climb as Markets Price in December Fed Cut

Asia-Pacific stocks advanced in tandem with Wall Street as investors grew more confident the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, with futures implying an odds above 80%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.85%, led by utilities, real estate and financials, while tech names such as SoftBank, Advantest and Renesas extended gains despite a sharp selloff in Kioxia on news of a Bain Capital stake sale. South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq rose more than 2%, and benchmarks in Australia, Hong Kong, China and India also moved higher, even as hotter Australian inflation data reminded markets that local price pressures remain a risk.

Australia’s Hotter Inflation Data Clouds Rate-Cut Outlook

Australia’s consumer inflation re-accelerated in October to 3.8% year on year, above the 3.6% expected and the fastest pace in seven months, reinforcing concerns that price pressures are proving sticky. Housing was the main driver, with costs up 5.9% amid record home prices, surging electricity bills and higher rents, while the trimmed mean rose to 3.3%. Although monthly headline CPI was flat, the data support the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious stance after holding rates at 3.6% and suggest that talk of further easing may be pushed into mid-to-late 2026, even as growth and business conditions remain solid.

U.S. Housing Market Sees Surge in Delistings as Sellers Balk at Weaker Prices

U.S. home sellers are pulling listings at the fastest pace in nearly a decade as soft demand and fading price momentum discourage deals, tightening effective supply even as inventory looks higher on paper. About 85,000 homes were delisted in September, up 28% year on year, with 70% of listings sitting on the market for 60 days or more and roughly 15% of would-be sales at risk of a loss, according to Redfin. While headline prices remain about 50% above levels five years ago, growing price cuts, seasonal slowdown and fragile buyer sentiment point to a more fragile, rate-sensitive housing market.

Conclusion

Wednesday signals point to markets finely balanced between optimism and vulnerability. U.S. tech’s growing weight in the S&P 500, despite a smaller share of earnings, leaves indices more exposed to any setback in the AI narrative. Asia-Pacific equities are riding hopes of a December Fed cut, but that rate-friendly backdrop is challenged by Australia’s upside inflation surprise, which underlines how sticky price pressures can be. In the U.S., a jump in home delistings reveals a more fragile housing market behind still-elevated price levels. Together, these trends argue for selective risk-taking and close attention to macro and earnings data.

Investment Insights

• Tech Concentration Risk: With U.S. tech now carrying a much larger share of index value than earnings, broad equity exposure is more vulnerable to an AI or growth disappointment. Diversifying beyond the “big growth” segment remains important.
• Rates Still Drive the Narrative: Asia’s rally on Fed cut hopes shows how sensitive global equities remain to U.S. policy expectations. Investors should watch incoming U.S. data as closely as local fundamentals.
• Inflation Is Uneven, Not Over: Australia’s upside CPI surprise is a reminder that disinflation is not a straight line. Policy paths can diverge by country, creating opportunities in relative bond and equity positioning.
• Housing as a Stress Indicator: Rising delistings in U.S. housing suggest buyers and sellers are struggling to agree on price. That points to a slower, more selective property market and argues against assuming housing will be a strong growth engine in the near term.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 25, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) – September (delayed release)	First look at U.S. pipeline inflation since the shutdown; an upside surprise could challenge expectations for a smoother disinflation path and a December Fed cut.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (second estimate), Personal Income & Spending and Core PCE	A dense U.S. data cluster that tests the “soft landing” narrative, combining growth momentum with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and household demand indicators.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Budget 2025	Key signal on U.K. fiscal stance, with implications for gilts, sterling and U.K. growth prospects as investors weigh tax, spending and borrowing paths into 2026.
November 28, 2025	Japan Unemployment Rate & Tokyo CPI (November)	Fresh read on Japan’s labour market and leading inflation gauge that could shape expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalization and yen volatility.
November 28, 2025	Canada Q3 GDP	Benchmark update on Canadian growth that will inform Bank of Canada policy expectations and North American demand assumptions for energy and cyclicals.

Key Points

• Amazon to Invest $50 Billion in AI for U.S. Government: Amazon will expand AWS’s AI and HPC infrastructure for federal agencies, adding 1.3 GW of capacity and deepening its sovereign AI role.
• U.S.–China Thaw in Progress: Presidents Trump and Xi reaffirm tariff rollbacks and rare earth export pauses, with plans for reciprocal state visits.
• Focus Shifts to AI, Crypto and Healthcare: Gold outperforms volatile crypto; Alphabet rallies on AI optimism while U.S. healthcare stocks gain on policy developments.
• ABN Amro to Cut Jobs and Boost Capital Returns: Dutch bank to slash 5,200 jobs, sell Alfam, reduce risk-weighted assets, and target 12% ROE with up to 100% capital returns by 2026.

Amazon Commits Up to $50 Billion to U.S. Government AI Buildout

Amazon will invest as much as $50 billion to expand AI and high-performance computing infrastructure for U.S. federal agencies via AWS, adding roughly 1.3 gigawatts of data center capacity starting in 2026.

The initiative will give more than 11,000 government clients access to AWS AI services, Anthropic’s Claude models, Nvidia GPUs and Amazon’s Trainium chips, positioning the company at the center of public-sector AI adoption.

The plan, which lifts Amazon’s 2025 capex outlook to $125 billion, underscores the escalating AI infrastructure race and the strategic importance of sovereign and government workloads in cloud growth.

Trump–Xi Call Signals Tentative Easing of U.S.–China Tensions

President Trump’s call with Chinese President Xi Jinping reinforced a fragile thaw in U.S.–China relations, with both sides affirming that the tariff rollbacks and rare earth export pauses agreed at last month’s Busan meeting are being implemented.

Beijing described the relationship as on a “steady and positive” trajectory, while Trump highlighted progress on agricultural trade and confirmed plans for reciprocal state visits in 2025.

The two leaders also discussed Ukraine peace efforts and reiterated their positions on Taiwan, underscoring that while geopolitical flashpoints remain, markets can expect near-term de-escalation on trade and supply-chain frictions rather than renewed escalation.

AI, Crypto and U.S. Healthcare in Focus

Tuesday’s trade will open with attention split across AI, digital assets and U.S. healthcare. Gold has quietly gained about 10% over two months as bitcoin and ether have dropped roughly 20%–30%, highlighting a rotation from speculative crypto into perceived havens.

In equities, Ross Stores continues to defy broader retail weakness, while Alphabet’s 6% jump on optimism around its new AI platform contrasts with November declines in Nvidia, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, adding fuel to the “AI bubble” debate amplified by Michael Burry’s new bearish newsletter.

U.S. healthcare names are also on watch after gains tied to potential policy measures to curb medical costs.

ABN Amro Unveils Deep Job Cuts to Boost Returns and Capital Returns

ABN Amro will cut about 5,200 full-time jobs, more than 20% of its workforce, by 2028 as it accelerates cost savings and refocuses on core businesses, sending its shares up over 4% at the open.

The plan includes selling its personal loan unit Alfam to Rabobank, reducing €10 billion of risk-weighted assets in its corporate bank and targeting a CET1 ratio above 13.75%.

The bank aims for at least 12% return on equity and to return up to 100% of capital generated to shareholders from 2026–2028, reinforcing Europe’s broader trend of capital-rich lenders tightening costs and upping payouts.

Conclusion

Tuesday’s developments underscore an investment landscape still defined by AI capex, geopolitics and capital discipline.

Amazon’s $50 billion commitment to U.S. government AI infrastructure reinforces the durability of sovereign and enterprise AI demand, even as public debate over valuations intensifies.

The Trump–Xi call suggests a tentative easing in U.S.–China trade frictions, reducing near-term tail risk around tariffs and supply chains.

In equities, attention is pivoting toward stock-specific stories in AI, crypto and U.S. healthcare, while ABN Amro’s aggressive cost-cut and payout roadmap highlights how European banks are using excess capital to drive efficiency gains and shareholder returns.

Investment Insights

• AI as Long-Term Infrastructure, Not a Fad: Amazon’s $50 billion plan for government AI infrastructure shows that large, recurring public-sector demand is forming. This supports a long runway for quality players in cloud, chips and data centers, even if headlines stay volatile.
• Geopolitics Can Ease Risk as Well as Create It: A calmer tone between the U.S. and China lowers the chance of new trade shocks, which is supportive for global supply chains and multinational earnings, especially in tech and manufacturing.
• Stock Picking Over Themes: Within AI, healthcare and crypto, performance is diverging. Broad labels matter less than underlying business strength, pricing power and balance sheet quality.
• Banks as Cash-Return Engines: ABN Amro’s plan to cut costs and return more capital reflects a wider trend in European banking. Select banks may offer steady income and buybacks, provided their balance sheets remain strong and risk controls are robust.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 25, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) – September (delayed release)	First look at U.S. pipeline inflation since the shutdown; an upside surprise could challenge expectations for a smoother disinflation path and a December Fed cut.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (second estimate), Personal Income & Spending and Core PCE	A dense U.S. data cluster that tests the “soft landing” narrative, combining growth momentum with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and household demand indicators.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Budget 2025	Key signal on U.K. fiscal stance, with implications for gilts, sterling and U.K. growth prospects as investors weigh tax, spending and borrowing paths into 2026.
November 28, 2025	Japan Unemployment Rate & Tokyo CPI (November)	Fresh read on Japan’s labour market and leading inflation gauge that could shape expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalization and yen volatility.
November 28, 2025	Canada Q3 GDP	Benchmark update on Canadian growth that will inform Bank of Canada policy expectations and North American demand assumptions for energy and cyclicals.

Key Points

• Singapore Inflation Surprise: Singapore’s October headline and core inflation both jumped to 1.2% year on year, above expectations and at a near one-year high, complicating an otherwise strong 4%-plus growth outlook.
• India’s IPO Boom: India’s booming IPO market is luring multinationals to list local units at rich valuation premiums, powered by deep domestic liquidity from mutual funds and retail SIP investors.
• China’s African Strategy Shift: China’s role in Africa is pivoting from state-led infrastructure and resources to private consumer goods, with exports to the continent up 28% and more firms exploring local production.
• Global Market Optimism: Global equities started the week firmer as markets price a roughly 60% chance of a December Fed cut, weakening the dollar against most majors even as the yen stays under pressure.

Singapore Inflation Surprise Complicates Otherwise Strong Growth Story

Singapore’s October inflation rose more than expected, with both headline and core CPI climbing to 1.2% year on year, their highest since August 2024 and well above economists’ forecasts.

The upside surprise was driven by higher transport and health costs and firmer services, food and retail prices, even as overall demand remains cautious.

The data follow an upgrade to Singapore’s 2025 growth forecast to 4% and robust Q3 GDP of 4.2%, but authorities still expect inflation to average 0.5%–1% next year before drifting above 1% in 2026, as fare hikes, green levies and easier financial conditions gradually add price pressure.

India’s IPO Boom Draws Multinationals Seeking Valuation Premium

India’s buoyant IPO market is attracting a growing list of global companies eager to list their local units and tap rich valuation premiums supported by deep domestic liquidity.

Recent deals such as LG Electronics India and Siemens Energy India highlight how Indian subsidiaries can trade at multiples several times those of their parents, despite lower earnings, as investors price in faster local growth and strong governance.

Robust mutual fund inflows, the popularity of SIPs and rising retail participation are enabling larger, fully subscribed offerings, often via secondary sales, allowing multinationals to unlock value and monetize stakes while still retaining control.

China Pivots from African Infrastructure to Consumer-Led Expansion

China’s engagement in Africa is shifting from state-led infrastructure and resource projects toward private-sector consumer businesses, as exports of higher value-added goods to the continent jumped 28% year on year in the first three quarters of 2025.

Large brands such as Transsion, Huawei and Midea are expanding alongside a wave of smaller entrepreneurs targeting fast-growing, urbanizing markets in electronics, household items and basic consumer goods.

While rising imports risk widening trade imbalances and pressuring local manufacturing, Beijing-linked investors are increasingly exploring local production hubs, aiming to pair African demand growth with onshore manufacturing and preferential access to U.S. and European markets.

Global Stocks Firm as Markets Lean into December Fed Cut

Global equities started the week higher, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, even as officials remain divided and data gaps from the recent U.S. government shutdown cloud the outlook.

European stocks climbed, with the Stoxx 600 rebounding after last week’s tech-driven losses, while U.S. futures and Asia-Pacific indices also advanced.

Fed funds futures now imply around a 60% chance of a 25 bp cut next month, echoing Goldman Sachs’ call for further easing into mid-2026, though some economists warn markets are pricing too many cuts.

The softer dollar versus most majors, a still-weak yen, lower Brent crude and steady gold underscore a cautious but constructive risk tone ahead of key U.S. retail and producer price data and the U.K. budget later this week.

Conclusion

Market signals point to a global cycle that is still expanding, but with increasingly uneven contours.

Singapore’s upside inflation surprise tempers an otherwise solid growth upgrade, hinting at future price pressures as activity and policy supports build.

India’s IPO boom and premium valuations for multinational subsidiaries underline how deep domestic liquidity can reshape global capital allocation.

China’s pivot toward Africa’s consumer markets highlights shifting trade and production geographies.

Overarching it all, markets are leaning into a December Fed cut, supporting risk assets for now but leaving investors exposed if policy or inflation data disappoint.

Investment Insights

• Asia Macro Allocation: Singapore’s stronger inflation alongside upgraded growth argues for selective exposure to sectors benefiting from regional trade and services, while monitoring MAS policy signals and future fare/tax-driven price pressures.
• India Equity Strategy: The valuation premium for Indian subsidiaries supports a structural overweight to India, but late-cycle IPO exuberance suggests focusing on quality franchises and avoiding purely multiple-driven stories.
• China–Africa Theme: The pivot from infrastructure to consumer-led engagement creates opportunities in African consumption and logistics, but export-heavy models face political and FX risk unless backed by credible local production.
• Rates and FX Positioning: With markets banking on a December Fed cut, duration and high-quality equities benefit tactically, yet investors should hedge against fewer cuts than priced and ongoing yen vulnerability.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 25, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) – September (delayed release)	First look at U.S. pipeline inflation since the shutdown; an upside surprise could challenge expectations for a smoother disinflation path and a December Fed cut.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (second estimate), Personal Income & Spending and Core PCE	A dense U.S. data cluster that tests the “soft landing” narrative, combining growth momentum with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and household demand indicators.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Budget 2025	Key signal on U.K. fiscal stance, with implications for gilts, sterling and U.K. growth prospects as investors weigh tax, spending and borrowing paths into 2026.
November 28, 2025	Japan Unemployment Rate & Tokyo CPI (November)	Fresh read on Japan’s labour market and leading inflation gauge that could shape expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalization and yen volatility.
November 28, 2025	Canada Q3 GDP	Benchmark update on Canadian growth that will inform Bank of Canada policy expectations and North American demand assumptions for energy and cyclicals.

Key Points

• SoftBank Sinks Over 10%: A Nvidia-led selloff hit Asia’s chip complex, dragging down major suppliers like SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC, and Foxconn in a broad AI hardware de-risking.
• Nvidia’s Rally Reverses: Despite a 62% revenue jump and strong guidance, Nvidia stock closed nearly 3% lower, signaling valuation fatigue even as the company denied “AI bubble” fears.
• Asia-Pacific Indices Tumble: The Nikkei 225 and Kospi dropped as stronger U.S. jobs data and firm Japanese inflation undercut rate-cut hopes.
• Europe Follows AI Reversal: European equities opened lower as chipmakers and defense stocks fell on AI-related volatility and Ukraine peace headlines.

Nvidia-Led Selloff Hits Asian Chip Complex

Asian semiconductor stocks sold off sharply after Nvidia’s overnight drop, despite the U.S. chipmaker’s strong results and upbeat guidance, underscoring how AI leaders have become focal points for broader risk-off moves. SoftBank tumbled over 10% in Tokyo, reflecting concerns around Arm and its wider AI exposure, while key Nvidia suppliers also slumped: SK Hynix fell 8.76%, Samsung Electronics 5.77%, TSMC 4.81% and Foxconn 4.86%. Smaller component and equipment names from Renesas to Tokyo Electron and Advantest also weakened, as investors reacted to tighter financial conditions, delayed Fed cut expectations and growing debate over a potential AI bubble.

Nvidia’s Post-Earnings Surge Fades as AI Rally Pauses

Nvidia’s shares reversed an early gain of up to 5% to close nearly 3% lower, despite delivering a 62% year-on-year jump in revenue to $57.01 billion and issuing stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance. On the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang pushed back against “AI bubble” concerns and management addressed key bear arguments around demand durability, supply constraints, financing and China, prompting many analysts to highlight the strength of the quarter even as some, like Deutsche Bank, kept a neutral stance. The initial optimism lifted AI-related names from AMD and Broadcom to power infrastructure stocks such as Eaton, but these gains also faded as the broader market turned risk-off.

Asia Equities Slide as AI Reversal and Rate Doubts Hit Risk Appetite

Asia-Pacific markets tracked Wall Street’s sharp reversal in AI-related stocks, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 2.4% and South Korea’s Kospi off 3.79% as tech heavyweights led the decline. SoftBank plunged over 10%, while names such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw losses of 5%–12%, reflecting a broad de-risking across the chip and tech complex. Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data cut the implied probability of a December Fed rate cut to around 40%, pressuring growth and duration-sensitive assets. Regional sentiment was further tested by firmer Japanese core inflation, which keeps the Bank of Japan under pressure to tighten policy.

European Stocks Slip as AI Volatility and Ukraine Peace Headlines Weigh on Sentiment

European equities opened lower, with the Stoxx 600 down around 0.75% as U.S. tech volatility and the global AI valuation reset continued to ripple across markets. Chip-linked names led declines, with BE Semiconductor, ASMI and ASML falling roughly 4–5% in early trade, mirroring the overnight selloff in Nvidia and the sharp pullback in Asian semiconductors. Defense stocks also came under pressure, with the Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense index off about 2.8% as reports of a possible Ukraine peace framework prompted profit-taking in names like Renk, Rheinmetall and Hensoldt. At the same time, investors are digesting a mixed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and sharply reduced odds of a December Fed rate cut while awaiting fresh U.K. retail and euro area manufacturing data for further guidance on growth and policy.

Conclusion

Market price action over the past 24 hours reflects an AI trade that is still fundamentally supported by earnings, but increasingly vulnerable to valuation pressure, policy uncertainty and position crowding. Nvidia’s strong results were not enough to prevent a sharp reversal across global semiconductors, dragging Asian tech benchmarks and European chipmakers lower, while SoftBank’s double-digit decline underscored sensitivity to AI sentiment. Fading expectations for a near-term Fed cut and shifting headlines on Ukraine are feeding volatility. For investors, selectivity, liquidity awareness and disciplined risk management remain more important than directional AI or rate bets.

Investment Insights

• AI Exposure: Treat leading AI hardware names as core but volatile holdings; consider staggered entry points and defined risk limits rather than momentum-driven allocation.
• Regional Balance: The synchronized selloff across U.S., Asia and Europe argues for diversified exposure across regions and along the AI value chain (chips, software, infrastructure), rather than concentration in a few marquee stocks.
• Macro Sensitivity: Fading Fed cut expectations and firmer Japanese inflation show that AI valuations remain highly rate-sensitive; duration risk and equity risk should be managed together, not in isolation.
• Hedging & Liquidity: Elevated intraday reversals favor maintaining liquidity buffers and using hedges (volatility, defensives, quality balance sheets) instead of binary “all-in” AI or growth trades.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 21, 2025	U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final), U.K. & Canada Retail Sales	Key read on U.S. household confidence and major retail sectors in the U.K. and Canada, shaping views on global consumption momentum and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending / PCE	Combines growth, investment and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge into one session, critical for recalibrating U.S. rate expectations and global risk premia.
November 27, 2025	Japan Tokyo CPI	A key leading indicator of Japanese inflation that guides Bank of Japan policy signals and influences yen dynamics and global bond markets.
November 28, 2025	German CPI & Retail Sales, Swiss GDP, Canadian GDP	Updates on eurozone core strength and Swiss/Canadian growth, important for gauging non-U.S. demand, ECB trajectory and cross-currency positioning.
November 30, 2025	China Official Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs	High-frequency snapshot of Chinese activity that sets the tone for Asian equities, commodities, and global growth sentiment into December.

Key Points

• Nvidia OpenAI Pact Uncertainty: Nvidia flagged “no assurance” that its headline $100 billion OpenAI investment will be finalized, underscoring contract and execution risk even as both firms drive a $1.4 trillion AI infrastructure buildout.
• Singapore-Nasdaq Dual Listing: Singapore Exchange’s new dual-listing bridge with Nasdaq aims to boost liquidity and global access for large-cap issuers via a single rulebook and review, backed by MAS capital injections and incentives for local equities.
• Nvidia Earnings Beat: Nvidia shares rose after the company beat Q3 expectations and guided for ~$65 billion in next-quarter revenue, with data center sales up sharply and management signaling “sold out” cloud GPU demand and $500 billion in AI chip orders.
• Fed Split on Rate Path: Fed minutes revealed a sharp split over the October rate cut and skepticism about a December move, with “many” officials favoring no further cuts in 2025, reinforcing a more uncertain and data-dependent easing path.

Nvidia Tempers Expectations on $100bn OpenAI Pact

Nvidia reminded investors in its latest quarterly filing that there is “no assurance” it will finalize the previously announced $100 billion AI infrastructure partnership with OpenAI, underlining the difference between headline announcements and binding contracts.

The disclosure comes two months after the two companies unveiled an ambitious plan for Nvidia to fund OpenAI data centers from 2026, with an initial $10 billion tranche tied to gigawatt-scale capacity buildout.

At the same time, OpenAI has locked in a signed agreement with AMD to deploy 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs, including stock warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, signaling a deliberate move to diversify chip suppliers.

While Nvidia’s management continues to describe OpenAI as a “once-in-a-generation company” and is targeting support for at least 10 gigawatts of OpenAI data centers, the caveats around the pact highlight contractual and execution risk in the AI capex cycle, even as both firms race to finance an announced $1.4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending.

Singapore-Nasdaq Dual Listing Bridge Aims to Lift SGX Competitiveness

Singapore Exchange is partnering with Nasdaq to create a “Global Listing Board” for companies above S$2 billion in market value, allowing a single set of documents and a streamlined review to support dual listings across both markets by mid-2026.

The move is part of a broader push by Singapore to boost its equity market’s appeal through deeper liquidity, round-the-clock price discovery, and access to both U.S. dollar and Singapore dollar investors.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore is complementing this with a S$30 million “Value Unlock” package to strengthen corporates’ capital markets capabilities and a S$2.85 billion mandate to local asset managers to drive participation in Singapore equities.

Equity turnover has already risen, with average daily trading volume up 16% year on year in Q3 2025 and IPOs raising over S$2 billion so far this year, though analysts caution that SGX’s lower liquidity versus Nasdaq and the need for stronger corporate action remain key constraints.

The STI’s roughly 30% gain since the 2024 equities review lags the near 60% rallies seen in Japan and South Korea following their reform pushes, underscoring both the progress made and the re-rating potential still contingent on further reforms and governance improvements.

Nvidia Extends AI Lead with Strong Quarter and Bullish Outlook

Nvidia shares climbed after the chipmaker delivered another stronger-than-expected quarter and raised its sales outlook, reinforcing confidence in the durability of the AI investment cycle.

Fiscal third-quarter revenue rose to $57.01 billion, ahead of forecasts, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.30, while net income jumped 65% year on year to $31.91 billion.

Data center revenue surged 66% to $51.2 billion, driven largely by demand for its Blackwell-based GPUs and networking products, as CEO Jensen Huang said “cloud GPUs are sold out” and highlighted $500 billion of AI chip orders for 2025–2026.

Nvidia now guides for about $65 billion in current-quarter sales, well above analyst expectations, supported by rising AI capital spending at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, even as export controls and intensifying competition weigh on China sales.

Alongside double-digit growth in gaming, visualization and robotics, and $12.5 billion of share buybacks, the results signal that AI infrastructure spending remains robust, with supply constraints and geopolitical risks the main checks on an otherwise powerful earnings story.

Fed Minutes Reveal Sharp Split on Rate Path After October Cut

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting show policymakers deeply divided over the need for further easing after approving a quarter-point cut to 3.75%–4%, casting doubt on the widely expected December move.

While several officials saw another reduction in December as appropriate if the economy evolves as they expect, “many” favored keeping rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, reflecting concern that inflation has shown “little sign” of returning sustainably to the 2% target.

The debate centers on how restrictive policy really is, with doves focused on a slowing labor market and hawks worried about undermining disinflation progress.

The split along with the impact of a 44-day government data blackout, has shifted market pricing: traders now see only about a one-in-three chance of a December cut and higher odds of action in early 2026, reinforcing the message that the Fed’s next steps are data-dependent and contested rather than on a preset easing path.

Conclusion

This week’s developments highlight a market still anchored by AI-driven capital spending but increasingly attentive to policy and execution risk.

Nvidia’s outstanding results and multi-year order book reinforce the depth of the AI infrastructure cycle, even as its proposed $100 billion pact with OpenAI underscores how headlines can outpace binding commitments.

Singapore’s dual-listing bridge with Nasdaq and fresh MAS incentives show policymakers competing to attract equity capital and liquidity.

At the same time, divided Fed minutes and fading odds of a December cut remind investors that monetary policy remains contested, keeping rates, risk premia and valuations firmly data-dependent.

Investment Insights

• AI infrastructure: Nvidia’s earnings strength and multi-year order backlog suggest the AI capex cycle remains intact; investors may focus on ecosystem beneficiaries (chips, networking, data centers) while discounting headline deal risk.
• Equity venue selection: Singapore’s dual-listing bridge with Nasdaq could improve liquidity and valuation for Asia-focused large caps; global investors should monitor SGX-listed names positioned to benefit from increased cross-border flows.
• Policy and rates: Fed divisions point to a slower, more conditional easing path; duration and rate-sensitive assets may remain volatile, favoring selective rather than broad-based yield-curve positioning.
• Risk management: Elevated policy uncertainty and execution risk argue for disciplined diversification across regions, sectors and factor exposures rather than concentrated AI or rate-cut bets.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 21, 2025	U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final), U.K. & Canada Retail Sales	Key read on U.S. household confidence and major retail sectors in the U.K. and Canada, shaping views on global consumption momentum and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending / PCE	Combines growth, investment and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge into one session, critical for recalibrating U.S. rate expectations and global risk premia.
November 27, 2025	Japan Tokyo CPI	A key leading indicator of Japanese inflation that guides Bank of Japan policy signals and influences yen dynamics and global bond markets.
November 28, 2025	German CPI & Retail Sales, Swiss GDP, Canadian GDP	Updates on eurozone core strength and Swiss/Canadian growth, important for gauging non-U.S. demand, ECB trajectory and cross-currency positioning.
November 30, 2025	China Official Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs	High-frequency snapshot of Chinese activity that sets the tone for Asian equities, commodities, and global growth sentiment into December.

Key Points

• Hong Kong IPO window reopens: A rebound in listings and a 28% YTD Hang Seng rally are giving China-focused private equity long-awaited exit routes and improving sentiment toward discounted consumer assets.
• Europe’s rare earths dependency: Despite new EU plans to diversify, the bloc remains heavily reliant on China for rare earth magnets, leaving auto, wind and defense supply chains exposed in the near term.
• EQT doubles down on Asia: The private-markets giant is scaling investment across the region, targeting early-stage China and domestic-demand sectors (services, software, education) less tied to geopolitics.
• Caution into Nvidia/Fed minutes: U.S. futures edge lower as investors await Nvidia’s results and Fed minutes, with questions over AI valuations and softer odds of a December rate cut tempering risk appetite.

Hong Kong IPO Rebound Opens Exit Path for China-Focused PE

Hong Kong’s IPO revival is unlocking long-stalled exits for China-invested private equity funds, with $18.2B raised year-to-date through October and the Hang Seng up over 28%—well ahead of the S&P 500.

Managers say cheaper valuations and early signs of stabilizing consumer demand are drawing capital back to China, allowing investors to “buy growth at a discount” in leading domestic brands.

While M&A remains muted and onshore listings tightly controlled, Hong Kong provides a practical outlet, though a 300-plus application backlog may slow timelines.

Regulators’ promises to streamline offshore listings are a tailwind, but execution speed will be key.

Europe’s Rare Earth Reality: Reliance on China Persists Despite New Plans

Europe remains heavily exposed to China for rare earths and magnets used in EVs, wind turbines and defense, even as Brussels launches its “RESourceEU” plan to diversify through recycling, joint buying, stockpiles and new partnerships.

China still controls ~59% of mining, 91% of refining and 94% of magnet manufacturing, while the EU imports ~70% of rare earths, and nearly all magnets from China.

A one-year suspension of Chinese export controls buys time, but Europe lacks mining/refining capacity and faces slow approvals.

Early moves such as Estonia’s new magnet plant signal progress, yet supply-chain resilience will take years to build.

EQT Ramps Up Asia, Targets Early-Stage China and Domestic Demand Plays

EQT is expanding its Asia footprint, calling the region a key growth engine across private equity and infrastructure. After raising over $10B for its latest Asia fund and planning a ~$930M investment in Korea’s Douzone Bizon, the firm says on-the-ground presence is essential to capture local opportunities.

While large buyouts in China remain challenging, EQT sees stronger potential in early-stage deals tied to domestic demand: services, software, education, and financial services, reducing exposure to geopolitics.

Leadership also downplayed reliance on falling interest rates, pointing to recent exits and distributions as evidence of an “all-weather” approach focused on value creation.

Futures Slip Ahead of Nvidia Results and Fed Minutes

U.S. equity futures turned lower early Wednesday as investors stayed cautious before Nvidia’s earnings and the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes.

Tech remained under pressure on concerns that AI-driven valuations are stretched; Nvidia fell 2.8% Tuesday, with AMD, TSMC, Amazon, Microsoft and Palantir also weaker.

Retail lagged after Home Depot’s miss, pulling Lowe’s and Walmart lower ahead of their reports.

Rate-cut odds for December eased to ~43%, with delays to key data leaving policymakers with less visibility.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures slipped 0.2%–0.3%, while markets await Thursday’s delayed September payrolls for labor-market cues.

Conclusion

Markets are sending mixed signals.

On one hand, Hong Kong’s IPO revival is reopening exit paths for China-focused private equity and nudging sentiment toward discounted domestic consumption stories.

On the other, Europe’s heavy reliance on China for rare earths underscores persistent strategic supply risks.

Large allocators like EQT are leaning into Asia; especially early-stage, domestic-demand assets, while public markets turn cautious ahead of Nvidia’s results and the Fed minutes as odds of a December rate cut fade.

Positioning should emphasize quality cash flows, selective Asia exposure, and vigilance on supply-chain policy, with dry powder ready for opportunities created by earnings and data volatility.

Investment Insights

• Asia reopens for exits: Hong Kong’s IPO revival is easing bottlenecks for China-focused private equity. This supports valuation discovery and could recycle capital into new deals.
• Domestic demand > cross-border risk: In Asia, focus on businesses tied to local consumers (healthcare, education, software, services) that are less exposed to geopolitical swings.
• Supply chains still fragile: Europe’s reliance on China for rare earths remains a strategic weak point. Prioritize companies with diversified sourcing or credible plans to localize key inputs.
• AI enthusiasm, disciplined entry: With attention on Nvidia’s results and high expectations, favor firms with clear cash generation and practical AI adoption over headline promises.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate) & Key Data Cluster (Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales)	Dense data slate testing U.S. growth and consumer momentum into year-end; pivotal for rate expectations and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Statement (Budget)	Fiscal measures shaping the U.K.’s growth/inflation mix ahead of the next BoE decision; implications for gilts and sterling.
December 9–10, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Press Conference	Sets the policy tone for the dollar, yields, and global assets; guidance into 2026 will drive equity and credit positioning.
December 17–18, 2025	European Central Bank Governing Council (Rate Decision & Projections)	Fresh forecasts and guidance for the euro area; key for euro, bunds, and European equity risk premia.

Key Points

• India–U.S. energy pivot: New LPG deal (≈10% of India’s imports) and higher U.S. crude purchases signal a thaw that could aid tariff talks, though India’s energy bill may rise near term.
• Europe pulls back on AI jitters: Stoxx 600 slid as tech worries resurfaced; healthcare outperformed while resources and banks lagged, with Nvidia results and delayed U.S. jobs data in focus.
• India’s record trade gap: October goods deficit hit $41.7B on a 200% surge in gold imports; U.S.-bound exports fell under 50% tariffs, pointing to a wider current-account gap.
• Gold softens on Fed doubts: Prices fell as odds of a December rate cut eased and the dollar firmed; markets await the delayed September U.S. payrolls for policy direction.

India Tilts U.S.-Ward on Energy to Ease Tariff Tensions

India moved to rebalance strained trade ties with Washington by striking its first structured deal to buy U.S. liquefied petroleum gas: about 10% of its annual LPG needs, and sharply increasing U.S. crude purchases to the highest since 2021.

The shift could lift India’s import bill but may help unlock a broader trade agreement if some tariffs are rolled back.

While the White House says India has “largely” reduced Russian oil buys, tanker data still show elevated inflows ahead of new sanctions deadlines.

For markets, the move signals incremental demand support for U.S. energy exports and a potential de-escalation path in U.S.–India trade frictions.

Europe Slides as Tech Jitters Spill Over

European stocks fell Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 down about 1.3% by mid-morning, tracking Wall Street’s tech-led pullback and fresh doubts around the AI trade.

Cyclicals lagged: basic resources and banks dropped, while healthcare held up as Roche jumped on positive breast-cancer drug data.

Corporate movers were mixed: Intermediate Capital Group surged after Amundi took a near-10% stake; Akzo Nobel slipped on its merger with Axalta; Novo Nordisk eased after flagging an earlier U.S. price cut for Wegovy.

With few European data releases, attention stays on delayed U.S. jobs figures and Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, a key test for AI sentiment.

India’s Record Trade Gap on Gold Surge and Tariff Hit

India’s merchandise trade deficit ballooned to a record $41.7 billion in October, far above the $28.8 billion expected, as festive demand sent gold imports to $14.7 billion; nearly triple last year.

U.S. tariffs weighed on exports: shipments to America fell 8.5% to $6.3 billion, with gems, jewelry, engineering goods and textiles notably weaker, while exports to China rose 42% to $1.6 billion.

Ratings firm ICRA expects imports to cool in Nov–Dec as gold demand fades, but sees the current-account deficit widening to about 2.4%–2.5% of GDP in Q3 FY26; a full-year CAD near 1.2% assumes U.S. tariffs stay in place.

Gold Slips as Dollar Firms and Fed-Cut Hopes Fade

Gold extended losses in Asia, with spot prices down 0.7% to ~$4,019/oz and December futures off 1.4%, as traders scaled back odds of a December Fed rate cut and the dollar strengthened.

Markets now see roughly a 42% chance of a 25 bp cut, placing more weight on a hold ahead of Thursday’s long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls, the last key labor read before the December 10-11 meeting.

Higher-for-longer rates and firmer Treasury yields continue to sap demand for non-yielding assets.

Broad metals weakness followed: silver and platinum fell ~0.7% each, while LME copper slipped 0.8% after last week’s gains.

Conclusion

Markets remain cautious as policy and trade dynamics intersect with shifting risk appetite.

India’s move to deepen U.S. energy ties offers a path to ease tariff frictions, yet near-term costs may lift its import bill and widen external balances, as October’s record trade gap underscores.

In Europe, equities retreated on renewed AI valuation worries, leaving investors focused on Nvidia’s results for clues to capex durability.

Meanwhile, gold extended losses as expectations for a December Fed cut faded and the dollar strengthened ahead of delayed U.S. payrolls.

Investment Insights

• India–U.S. energy ties: India buying more U.S. gas and oil can ease tensions and support future trade deals. In the short term, India may face higher energy costs, businesses that earn in dollars or export more could hold up better.
• Europe’s AI jitters: Swings in AI-related stocks are likely to continue. Focus on firms with clear profits from AI.
• India’s record trade gap: A wider trade deficit and tariffs are pressure points. Favor Indian companies with global sales or strong foreign demand while being cautious on sectors that depend heavily on imports.
• Gold and interest rates: If U.S. interest rates stay high, gold can struggle.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 26, 2025	U.S. Q3 GDP (Second Estimate) & Key Data Cluster (Durable Goods, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales)	Dense data slate testing U.S. growth and consumer momentum into year-end; pivotal for rate expectations and risk appetite.
November 26, 2025	U.K. Autumn Statement (Budget)	Fiscal measures shaping the U.K.’s growth/inflation mix ahead of the next BoE decision; implications for gilts and sterling.
December 9–10, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Press Conference	Sets the policy tone for the dollar, yields, and global assets; guidance into 2026 will drive equity and credit positioning.
December 17–18, 2025	European Central Bank Governing Council (Rate Decision & Projections)	Fresh forecasts and guidance for the euro area; key for euro, bunds, and European equity risk premia.