Key Points

• European Gas Prices Rise as Trump Threatens Sanctions on Russian Exports: Benchmark TTF gas prices climbed over 5% this week as Trump’s Russia ultimatum stoked fears of tighter global energy supply and LNG competition ahead of winter.
• German Economy Contracts in Q2 as U.S. Demand Recedes Post-Tariff Surge: Germany’s 0.1% GDP decline reflects the impact of fading U.S. import demand, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to external trade normalization.
• HSBC Profit Misses as China Exposure Weighs; $3B Buyback Announced: HSBC’s Q2 earnings fell 29% due to China-linked impairments, but a $3 billion buyback and restructuring momentum supported investor sentiment.
• Novo Nordisk Shares Extend Losses as CEO Shift and U.S. Competition Erode Confidence: Novo’s $70B valuation wipeout and outlook cut triggered further stock declines, as investors questioned leadership credibility and Wegovy’s competitive resilience in the U.S. market.

European Gas Prices Rise as Trump Threatens Sanctions on Russian Exports

European natural gas prices edged higher, with the TTF benchmark up 0.7% to €34.97/MWh, following President Trump’s 10-day ultimatum to Russia over its actions in Ukraine. The warning, which could lead to new sanctions on Russian oil exports, has intensified market concerns over global supply.

Analysts highlight the risk of heightened competition for LNG cargoes as Asian demand strengthens, potentially squeezing European inventories ahead of winter. Prices are up over 5% this week, reflecting geopolitical risk premiums and growing urgency among EU nations to accelerate gas stockpiling amid volatile global energy dynamics.

German Economy Contracts in Q2 as U.S. Demand Recedes Post-Tariff Surge

Germany’s economy shrank 0.1% in Q2, reversing gains from the previous quarter and aligning with analyst expectations. The contraction reflects a cooling in U.S. demand for German exports, which had previously surged as American buyers front-loaded orders ahead of anticipated tariff hikes.

The data signals the start of a demand normalization phase, underscoring the vulnerability of Europe’s largest economy to external trade shifts and slowing global momentum.

HSBC Profit Misses as China Exposure Weighs; $3B Buyback Announced

HSBC reported a 29% drop in Q2 net profit to $4.58 billion, missing consensus estimates due to $2.1 billion in impairment and dilution charges tied to its stake in China’s Bank of Communications. Despite solid net interest and fee income, pretax profit also fell 29% to $6.33 billion.

CEO Georges Elhedery, steering a strategic overhaul, has merged key banking units and scaled back deal advisory operations in the U.S. and Europe. The bank announced a $3 billion share buyback as part of its investor return strategy. Shares are up 33% YTD on restructuring optimism and easing trade tensions.

Novo Nordisk Shares Extend Losses as CEO Shift and U.S. Competition Erode Confidence

Novo Nordisk shares dropped another 3% Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s 23% plunge that erased $70 billion in market value following a profit warning and the appointment of new CEO Maziar Doustdar. Investors reacted sharply to the company’s lowered 2025 sales outlook, driven by intensifying U.S. competition from compounded Wegovy alternatives.

Analysts flagged a credibility gap as management downplayed the threat. Barclays downgraded the stock to “equal-weight,” while JPMorgan trimmed its target but maintained an “overweight” view. As Europe’s once most valuable company, Novo now faces mounting pressure to defend its obesity drug franchise and restore investor confidence.

Conclusion

Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical and structural shifts across energy, healthcare, and financial sectors.

European gas prices rose on renewed tensions with Russia, underscoring the fragility of global supply chains. Germany’s economic contraction illustrates the ripple effects of fading post-tariff demand, particularly in export-reliant economies.

In financials, HSBC’s results reflect the balance between restructuring gains and China-related risks, while Novo Nordisk’s steep sell-off highlights investor unease amid leadership changes and rising U.S. competition.

With volatility elevated and confidence uneven, investors are recalibrating exposure based on earnings visibility, geopolitical clarity, and sector-specific execution risk.

Investment Insights

• Energy Exposure Needs Reassessment: Rising European gas prices amid renewed geopolitical risk may favor LNG producers and diversified energy firms, while increasing pressure on European industrial margins.
• Export Sensitivity Remains a Macro Risk: Germany’s Q2 contraction reinforces the fragility of export-driven economies during trade normalization—investors should watch for similar pressure in other manufacturing-heavy markets.
• Financials Require Granular Scrutiny: HSBC’s profit miss and Novo Nordisk’s steep decline show that headline figures are insufficient; underlying impairments, leadership credibility, and regional exposures are key differentiators in current equity performance.
• Volatility Can Unlock Opportunity: Barclays-style trading gains show that well-positioned firms can benefit from policy and geopolitical turbulence—active positioning remains critical in sectors with asymmetric risk profiles.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Forecast / Importance
Jul 30, 2025	U.S. Q2 GDP (QoQ annualized advance)	Estimated +2.5%—broadest output gauge, key for growth outlook
Aug 1, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (July)	Forecast ~108 K—critical for Fed’s rate expectations and labor trends
Jul 31, 2025	June Core PCE Price Index	Fed’s preferred inflation metric; guides policy direction
Aug 4, 2025	U.S. Factory Orders (June MoM)	Forecast +8.2%—signals capital spending and industrial momentum

 

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.

Key Points

• Wall Street Reassesses Trade War Risk as Tariff Fallout Appears Contained: Markets are growing less fearful of recession as effective U.S. tariff rates stabilize near 15%, easing inflation concerns and lowering JPMorgan’s recession risk to 40%.
• Hungary Cuts 2025 Growth Forecast to 1% Amid Prolonged Economic Weakness: Hungary slashed its 2025 GDP outlook to 1% amid continued stagnation in agriculture and industry, adding pressure on Prime Minister Orban ahead of a challenging election year.
• India Overtakes China in U.S. Smartphone Exports Amid Apple-Led Manufacturing Shift: India became the top U.S. smartphone supplier in Q2, driven by Apple’s production shift from China, as firms seek tariff-resilient manufacturing alternatives.
• Barclays Delivers 23% Profit Jump as Tariff-Driven Trading Boosts Investment Bank: Barclays outperformed with strong H1 earnings as trading revenue surged on tariff-driven market volatility, fueling shareholder returns and affirming strategic profitability targets.

Wall Street Reassesses Trade War Risk as Tariff Fallout Appears Contained

Despite elevated tariff levels under recent trade agreements, Wall Street sentiment has improved as the effective rates—stabilizing near 15%—remain below the feared 25%+ threshold floated in April. Economists now see reduced recession risk, supported by resilient global growth, modest inflation impact, and looser financial conditions. JPMorgan lowered its U.S. recession probability to 40%, while Morgan Stanley expects slow growth rather than contraction. The U.S.–EU deal has tempered expectations of global retaliation, though unresolved trade issues ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline remain a key risk. Markets now look to the Fed for policy signals as inflation pressures moderate.

Hungary Cuts 2025 Growth Forecast to 1% Amid Prolonged Economic Weakness

Hungary’s government sharply lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1% from 2.5%, citing persistent weakness in agriculture and industry, as well as the lingering effects of post-war inflation. The revision aligns with the central bank’s 0.8% and OECD’s 0.9% projections, marking the weakest three-year stretch under Prime Minister Orban since 2010. While election-year stimulus—including tax breaks and pension hikes—remains in place, officials ruled out amending the 2025 budget. Despite stagnant growth and a 74% debt ratio, the government aims to contain the fiscal deficit below 4% of GDP, relying on frozen spending and revenue resilience to stabilize public finances.

India Overtakes China in U.S. Smartphone Exports Amid Apple-Led Manufacturing Shift

India surpassed China as the leading smartphone exporter to the U.S. in Q2, with its share of imports surging to 44% from 13% a year earlier, according to Canalys. The shift reflects Apple’s accelerated relocation of assembly to India amid tariff risks and U.S.–China trade tensions. Chinese exports fell to 25%, while Vietnam claimed 30%. Despite Apple’s ramp-up in India, yield rates remain lower than in China, and iPhone shipments to the U.S. dropped 11% year-over-year. The shift underscores broader supply chain realignment as firms seek tariff-resilient production hubs while balancing cost and scale efficiency.

Barclays Delivers 23% Profit Jump as Tariff-Driven Trading Boosts Investment Bank

Barclays reported a 23% rise in H1 pretax profit to £5.2 billion, beating estimates as heightened market volatility from Trump’s tariff policy fueled strong trading revenue. The bank’s fixed income, currencies, and commodities division saw a 26% jump, outpacing major U.S. peers. Equities income rose 25%, while advisory fees lagged, falling 16%. Barclays announced £1.4 billion in shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks, and reaffirmed progress toward its 12% return-on-tangible-equity target for 2026. CEO Venkatakrishnan emphasized stability and strategic refocusing on core domestic banking. A pending U.K. Supreme Court ruling on motor finance probes remains a watch point.

Conclusion

Global markets are navigating a transition from trade tension to cautious stabilization. The U.S.–EU deal and a cooling trade war with China have tempered recession fears as tariff rates settle near 15%, supporting equities and easing inflation pressure. Commodities like copper and oil reflect tightening fundamentals, while supply chain shifts—such as India surpassing China in U.S. smartphone exports—highlight geopolitical realignments. Barclays’ strong trading performance underscores the benefits of volatility for financial sectors. Yet weak growth in Hungary and lingering macro risks signal vulnerability. Investors now await pivotal U.S. data and central bank guidance to shape positioning into August.

Investment Insights

Tariff Normalization Supports Risk Assets: With effective tariffs stabilizing below peak fears, investor sentiment has improved. Equities and credit markets may benefit from reduced recession risk and clarity in trade policy.

Watch Policy-Linked Growth Divergence: Hungary’s downgraded outlook highlights vulnerabilities in politically driven economies. Investors should remain selective in emerging market exposure, favoring fiscal discipline and structural reform.

India’s Manufacturing Ascent Creates New Supply Chain Themes: The surge in smartphone exports from India signals growing resilience and investable trends in Southeast Asian manufacturing and logistics infrastructure.

Volatility Favours Financials: Barclays’ trading-fueled beat shows banks with strong capital markets arms may continue to outperform in tariff-driven and rate-sensitive environments.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 29–30, 2025	FOMC policy decision & Powell press conference	Guidance on interest rates and tariff-driven inflation risks
Jul 31, 2025	June PCE price index (core inflation)	Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; informs rate outlook
Aug 1, 2025	July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report	Labour market trends crucial to Fed’s policy path
Aug 1, 2025	Tariff deadline for trade agreements	May trigger new trade terms or extension vs. escalation

Disclaimer

This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.

Key Points

• Asia Markets Mixed as U.S.-China Talks Begin; Samsung Surges on Tesla Deal: Asia-Pacific equities ended mixed as markets awaited clarity from U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm, while Samsung soared over 6% on a $16.5B semiconductor supply deal with Tesla.
• UBS: Trump’s Copper Tariff Threat May Drive U.S. Prices Higher Amid Tight Global Supply: UBS projects a rise in domestic copper prices if Trump’s proposed 50% import tariff is enacted, citing limited U.S. smelting capacity and persistent global supply constraints.
• European Equities Climb as U.S.-EU Trade Pact Calms Tariff Fears; Heineken, Crude Advance: European indices rallied after a U.S.-EU trade agreement eased tariff tensions, with Heineken reporting strong growth in emerging markets and oil prices rising on improved trade sentiment.
• U.S. Pauses Tech Export Controls to China Amid Push for Trade Deal and Xi Meeting: Washington suspended tech export restrictions to China to support trade negotiations and a possible Trump-Xi summit, drawing backlash from security experts concerned about AI risks.

Asia Markets Mixed as U.S.-China Talks Begin; Samsung Surges on Tesla Deal

Asia-Pacific markets closed mixed Monday as investors awaited clarity from U.S.-China trade talks beginning in Stockholm, with expectations for a truce extension and discussions spanning broader geopolitical issues. Samsung Electronics surged over 6% to a 10-month high after securing a $16.5 billion semiconductor deal with Tesla, lifting South Korea’s Kospi.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese and Indonesian equities extended their rallies to fresh highs, driven by strong gains in utilities and real estate. In Hong Kong, CK Hutchison shares rebounded after signaling interest in bringing a Chinese strategic investor into its $22.8 billion port deal amid geopolitical sensitivities.

UBS: Trump’s Copper Tariff Threat May Drive U.S. Prices Higher Amid Tight Global Supply

UBS analysts warned that President Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on copper imports, set for potential implementation on August 1, could significantly lift domestic prices. While the U.S. is expected to remain a net importer due to limited smelting capacity and weak investment in new production, the report notes that global supply constraints are already underpinning bullish price dynamics.

UBS suggests manufacturers may absorb or pass on higher costs given copper’s limited substitutes, though key questions remain around the scope and enforcement of the proposed tariffs.

European Equities Climb as U.S.-EU Trade Pact Calms Tariff Fears; Heineken, Crude Advance

European stocks rallied Monday after the U.S. and European Union finalized a trade agreement, averting a major tariff escalation. Germany’s DAX rose 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 gained 1.2%, and the FTSE 100 advanced 0.5% as the 15% baseline tariff—lower than the threatened 30%—brought relief to corporates seeking stability. Heineken reported strong H1 profit growth driven by Asia and Africa, despite sluggish European demand.

Wind turbine maker Nordex posted a sharp increase in new orders. Crude prices also rose in tandem, buoyed by easing trade tensions. Market attention now turns to central bank meetings and U.S. labor data later this week.

U.S. Pauses Tech Export Controls to China Amid Push for Trade Deal and Xi Meeting

The U.S. has temporarily halted new technology export restrictions to China in a strategic bid to advance trade negotiations and facilitate a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, according to the Financial Times. The Commerce Department has reportedly held back enforcement actions, aiding the resumption of Nvidia’s GPU exports to China. The move is part of broader talks covering critical materials such as rare earths.

While the easing aims to foster diplomatic progress, it has sparked concern among national security experts warning it could erode the U.S. advantage in AI-related technologies.

Conclusion

U.S. and global markets enter a pivotal period where trade dynamics and policy cues are steering sentiment. Asian markets remain cautious as U.S.–China talks unfold, while European and U.S. stocks have rallied on a new U.S.–EU trade pact. Commodities such as copper and oil reflect tightening supply and improving trade feedback loops. Tech and industrial exports signal diplomatic progress but raise strategic risks.

With strong earnings persisting alongside rising inventories and tariff uncertainty, investors now await major U.S. data releases and central bank commentary to frame positioning for late summer.

Investment Insights

• Trade Positioning: The U.S.–EU agreement and paused export controls with China signal a de-escalation in trade tensions—investors may consider reallocating toward export-reliant sectors and multinational equities.
• Commodities Watch: Tariff threats on copper, combined with global supply constraints, could support higher pricing—favorable for domestic miners and industrials with pricing power.
• Asia Opportunities: Vietnamese and Indonesian equities continue to outperform on strong domestic momentum—selective exposure to Southeast Asian growth markets may enhance diversification.
• Tech Policy Risk: The easing of U.S. export controls benefits near-term chipmakers like Nvidia, but longer-term regulatory volatility remains a key consideration in AI-related equities.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 29–30, 2025	Federal Reserve rate decision and Powell press conference	Clarifies rate policy and signals on inflation path ahead of prospective cuts
Aug 1, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (July jobs report)	Labour data critical to Fed’s rate outlook and dollar direction
Aug 1, 2025	Trump-era tariff deadline for multiple trade pacts	Final cutoff for tariff reductions or extensions with major partners
Jul 29–30, 2025	FOMC meeting followed by GDP & PCE reports	Combined policy and inflation metrics to guide market expectations

 

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.

Key Points

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq Extend Record Rally as Earnings Strength and Trade Deals Boost Sentiment: U.S. equities continue to climb, with strong corporate earnings and optimism over new U.S. trade agreements pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
• Puma Shares Plunge as Q2 Loss Forces Outlook Cut and Sparks Industry Pressure: Puma issued a profit warning after a deeper-than-expected quarterly loss, slashing its 2025 outlook as elevated inventories, weak apparel sales, and U.S. tariffs weigh on margins.
• Dollar Gains Slightly Ahead of Fed Meeting as Trade Optimism Offers Support: The dollar edged higher but remains set for a weekly loss as traders focus on the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, with trade negotiations involving the EU and China providing modest support.
• Asia Stocks Slip as Trade Tensions and Policy Outlook Weigh; Vietnam Hits Multi-Year High: Most Asia-Pacific markets closed lower as investors weighed trade developments and regional conflicts, while Vietnam’s benchmark index surged to its highest level in over three years, supported by industrial and energy gains.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Extend Record Rally as Earnings Strength and Trade Deals Boost Sentiment

U.S. stock futures edged higher early Friday, extending a rally that has pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs. The S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time Monday, marking its 13th record of 2025, while the Nasdaq surpassed 21,000 midweek. Strong corporate earnings underpin the momentum, with 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating expectations, led by Alphabet’s robust results.

Optimism over new U.S. trade deals with Japan and Indonesia further buoyed sentiment ahead of the Trump administration’s Aug. 1 tariff deadline. Markets remain focused on next week’s Fed meeting, where rates are expected to hold at 4.25%-4.5%.

Puma Shares Plunge as Q2 Loss Forces Outlook Cut and Sparks Industry Pressure

Puma shares tumbled 16% after the company issued a profit warning and slashed its 2025 outlook following a deeper-than-expected second-quarter loss. Currency-adjusted sales fell 2% to €1.94 billion, with declines across all major regions and sharp weakness in apparel and accessories offsetting modest footwear growth. Gross margin contracted to 46.1% amid promotional pressure and currency headwinds, while inventories rose 10% year over year to €2.15 billion.

Puma now expects full-year sales to drop in the low double digits and forecasts a negative EBIT, reversing prior guidance. Analysts warn of elevated clearance activity as competition, including Nike’s planned relaunch, intensifies.

Dollar Gains Slightly Ahead of Fed Meeting as Trade Optimism Offers Support

The U.S. dollar edged higher Friday, with the Dollar Index up 0.2% to 97.34, but remained set for a 1% weekly loss, its weakest in a month. Support came from optimism over potential trade agreements with the EU and China ahead of the August 1 deadline, though investor focus has shifted to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to hold.

The euro traded near four-year highs at $1.1745, while the yen weakened after Tokyo inflation eased, pushing USD/JPY up to 147.71. Sterling fell to $1.3468 on softer U.K. retail sales, underscoring uneven consumer demand.

Asia Stocks Slip as Trade Tensions and Policy Outlook Weigh

Asia-Pacific equities ended mostly lower Friday as investors assessed recent trade developments and regional tensions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.88% to 41,456.23, while the Topix slipped 0.86% after hitting a record high in the prior session. Australia’s ASX 200 and China’s CSI 300 declined 0.49% and 0.53%, respectively, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.18%. Vietnam’s benchmark index hit a 39-month high, buoyed by industrials and energy stocks.

Meanwhile, border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia threatened tourism-dependent economies, and HSBC projected the Bank of Japan may raise rates to 0.75% in October, citing trade-driven growth optimism.

Conclusion

The week closed with U.S. equity indices at record highs, powered by broad-based earnings strength and renewed optimism around trade agreements. The dollar regained some footing amid ongoing negotiations with major partners, though faces pressure ahead of next week’s critical Fed decision on interest rates. Puma’s sharp earnings miss and revised outlook highlight intensifying pressure in consumer discretionary sectors.

Across Asia, market sentiment took a cautious turn amid trade tensions and geopolitical flashpoints, though emerging markets such as Vietnam continue to attract attention with strong sectoral performance. Investors will now look to U.S. labor data and central bank commentary to set the tone for August.

Investment Insights

• Equities: Record U.S. index highs reflect strong earnings momentum, but breadth remains narrow—rotation into lagging sectors may be key for sustained upside.
• Consumer Discretionary: Puma’s profit warning underscores margin and inventory risks across apparel; investors should monitor peers for similar pressure, especially ahead of Nike’s relaunch.
• Currencies: Dollar stability hinges on Fed commentary; any hawkish tone could reverse recent weakness, favoring exporters and rate-sensitive trades.
• Asia-Pacific: Vietnam’s equity rally highlights selective opportunities in industrials and energy, while broader regional markets face headwinds from trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 29–30, 2025	Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell press conference	Signals policy stance; key for rate-sensitive sectors and dollar direction
Aug 1, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (July jobs report)	Labor strength will influence Fed timing on potential rate cuts

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.

Key Points

• China-focused hedge funds outperform with double-digit returns: The Greater China Equities Hedge Fund Index gained 15% in H1 2025, driven by Hong Kong stock rebounds and strategic bets on AI and consumer sectors, with Triata Capital posting a 62% return by mid-July.
• Private credit giants target Asia as funding gaps widen: Private credit AUM in Asia surged to $62.3B, with global players like Apollo and Hillhouse increasing exposure as banks retreat, particularly in mid-market lending, infrastructure, and renewable energy.
• Futures muted; Alphabet and Tesla earnings in focus: U.S. futures traded mixed as investors digested Alphabet’s 14% revenue jump on AI-driven growth and Tesla’s weaker earnings amid slowing EV sales, while optimism over EU-U.S. trade talks supported sentiment.
• European stocks surge on trade optimism and earnings beats: The Stoxx 600 rose 1.1%, led by auto stocks on hopes of a U.S.-EU trade deal; Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, and Nestlé posted upbeat earnings, while German consumer sentiment and EU car sales weakened.

China-focused Hedge Funds Outperform with Double-Digit Returns

China-focused hedge funds outperformed global peers in the first half of 2025, buoyed by a rebound in Hong Kong equities and targeted bets on artificial intelligence and consumer-driven sectors. The Greater China Equities Hedge Fund Index rose 15% in the first six months, outpacing regional benchmarks, while Triata Capital led with a 45% return, surging to 62% by mid-July.

Managers cited strategic allocations to AI software, data centers, and consumer stocks, coupled with effective hedging during April’s market turbulence sparked by U.S. “reciprocal tariffs,” as key to their strong performance.

Private Credit Giants Target Asia Amid Widening Funding Gaps

Private credit firms are increasingly shifting to Asia as traditional bank lending contracts, creating a widening funding gap and lucrative opportunities in mid-market financing. Assets under management surged to $62.3 billion in Q1 2024, with players like Apollo and Hillhouse deploying billions in the region. India, Southeast Asia, and infrastructure-focused sectors lead the growth, while Japan and South Korea offer stable mid-market plays.

Despite legal and currency risks, firms see Asia as a long-term growth hub, with Standard Chartered projecting sustained double-digit growth and KKR estimating a $700 billion potential market expansion.

Futures Muted as Alphabet and Tesla Earnings Take Center Stage

U.S. stock futures traded flat to slightly lower Thursday as investors digested corporate earnings and trade developments. Alphabet surged over 2% in after-hours trading after posting record revenue of $96.4 billion, driven by strong search and cloud growth, though heavy AI-related spending weighed on sentiment. Tesla fell more than 4% as weak auto sales dragged revenue down 12% year-on-year, with Elon Musk warning of “rough quarters” ahead.

Hopes for an EU-U.S. trade deal helped sustain risk appetite, while markets awaited U.S. PMI data and the ECB’s policy decision, with rates expected to remain unchanged at 2%.

European Stocks Surge on Trade Deal Hopes and Earnings Momentum

European equities advanced sharply Thursday as optimism over a potential EU-U.S. trade deal buoyed sentiment, following the U.S.-Japan agreement earlier this week. The Stoxx 600 climbed 1.1%, led by auto stocks up 3.6% as hopes grew for reduced tariffs on European imports. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its 2025 guidance with stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, while Nestlé beat sales forecasts and BNP Paribas projected revenue acceleration in H2.

However, German consumer sentiment weakened for a second month, and new car sales in Europe fell over 5% in June. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $68.94, supported by a sharper-than-expected U.S. stockpile drawdown.

Conclusion

As global markets navigate a mix of trade optimism, central bank caution, and robust corporate earnings, investor focus pivots to policy signals and macro data. US–Japan trade progress and tentative EU talks bolster sentiment, yet uncertainty lingers ahead of the August tariffs deadline. Treasury yields edge higher in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, while gold-backed Chinese hedge funds and Asia private-credit growth highlight shifting asset flows.

Meanwhile, European earnings and ECB signals will guide next moves. Now is a time for disciplined positioning—balancing exposure to trade-sensitive equities with yield-sensitive bonds, while monitoring policy catalysts closely.

Investment Insights

• China-focused Hedge Funds: Strong double-digit returns highlight renewed investor confidence in Chinese tech and consumption sectors; select exposure to AI and consumer stocks may offer alpha but requires hedging against tariff risks.
• Private Credit in Asia: Rapidly expanding AUM and widening funding gaps present long-term opportunities, particularly in mid-market lending and infrastructure; investors should account for regulatory and FX risks through disciplined due diligence.
• U.S. Tech Earnings: Alphabet’s strong revenue growth reinforces AI-driven advertising and cloud opportunities, while Tesla’s weak auto sales suggest caution until autonomous driving revenues materialize.
• Trade Deal Momentum: Growing optimism around U.S.-EU negotiations supports cyclical sectors, particularly autos; watch for tariff announcements as a catalyst for short-term volatility in European equities.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 23, 2025	U.S. Existing Home Sales (Jun)	Signals housing market strength, influences Fed outlook
Jul 30, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting	Investors will parse guidance on rate path
Aug 12, 2025	U.S. CPI (July)	Core inflation print will affect dollar and bonds

Disclaimer

This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.

Key Points

• Trump Shifts Focus to EU Trade Talks: After securing a trade deal with Japan, U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for an EU agreement before the Aug. 1 deadline, with 30% tariffs looming if no deal is reached.
• European Auto Stocks Rally on Trade Hopes: The Stoxx Europe Automobiles and Parts index surged 4.3%, driven by Porsche (+7.4%), Stellantis (+7%), and Volkswagen (+6.4%) as optimism grew over potential tariff reductions similar to Japan’s deal.
• Bitcoin Holds Above $118K Amid Trade-Driven Risk Appetite: Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $118,582.7 as the U.S.-Japan trade deal improved risk sentiment, though the crypto market remains rangebound ahead of Fed policy guidance.
• European Shares Gain on Trade Optimism and Strong Earnings: The STOXX 600 rose 1.1%, led by auto and financial stocks, as easing trade tensions and positive earnings, including Temenos (+18.1%) and UniCredit (+3.4%), boosted investor confidence.

Trump Shifts Focus to EU After Japan Trade Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump turned his attention to the European Union after striking a framework trade agreement with Japan, intensifying pressure to finalize a deal before the Aug. 1 deadline for 30% tariffs on EU imports. The Japan deal, which reduced auto tariffs to 15% without export caps, raised hopes that similar concessions could be extended to the EU. Analysts expect the bloc may accept baseline tariffs if key sectors, particularly autos, gain exemptions.

European equities reacted positively, with the Stoxx 600 up 1% and autos jumping 3.5%, as optimism over a potential deal lifted sentiment.

European Markets Lifted by Trade Optimism, Autos Lead Gains

European stocks advanced Wednesday, with the Stoxx Europe Automobiles and Parts index surging 4.3% as hopes grew for an EU-U.S. trade deal following the U.S.-Japan agreement. Tariff-sensitive carmakers led gains, with Porsche up 7.4%, Stellantis rising 7%, and Volkswagen gaining 6.4%. Swiss fintech firm Temenos jumped 21.2% after raising full-year guidance, citing improved deal-making conditions. In contrast, SAP slipped 2.3% despite strong profit growth, as macro uncertainty and euro strength weighed on revenue.

Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASM International tumbled 10% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 bookings, highlighting uneven demand in the chip equipment sector.

Bitcoin Gains on Trade Optimism but Stays Rangebound

Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $118,582 in Asian trading on Wednesday, supported by improved risk sentiment following the U.S.–Japan trade agreement, though it remained rangebound after last week’s record above $123,000. The deal, which includes a reduced 15% tariff on Japanese goods and a $550 billion Japanese investment in the U.S., boosted global risk appetite and lifted crypto markets alongside equities.

Regulatory momentum in the U.S., including Trump’s signing of the GENIUS Act establishing a stablecoin framework, also underpinned sentiment. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 30 policy meeting and the looming August 1 tariff deadline.

European Shares Rally on U.S.-Japan Trade Deal and EU Negotiation Hopes

European equities advanced sharply Wednesday, with the STOXX 600 climbing 1.1% to 550.14, as investor sentiment improved following the U.S.-Japan trade agreement and renewed optimism over EU-U.S. negotiations. Auto stocks surged 3.6%, led by Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Porsche, which gained up to 7.4%, tracking strength in Asian peers.

Trump’s deal with Japan, which reduced U.S. auto tariffs to 15% and secured $550 billion in Japanese investments, raised hopes the EU could negotiate similar terms. Corporate earnings also boosted markets, with Temenos jumping 18.1% and UniCredit rising 3.4%, while Nokia and ASM International weighed on tech sentiment after weaker guidance and bookings.

Conclusion

Global markets are showing renewed optimism as trade diplomacy gains momentum following the U.S.-Japan agreement. European stocks, particularly autos, rallied on hopes of a similar deal with Washington, while China and Hong Kong extended gains on infrastructure-driven optimism. Bitcoin’s modest rise highlights cautious risk appetite as investors weigh macro uncertainty ahead of key Fed signals.

However, tariff deadlines, especially the looming Aug. 1 U.S.-EU negotiations, remain a major market driver. Investors should monitor trade progress closely, as sectoral winners—autos, construction, and tech—may shift rapidly based on tariff outcomes and central bank policy updates in the coming days.

Investment Insights

• Trade Diplomacy Shifts Market Sentiment: The U.S.-Japan trade deal is lifting risk appetite globally and raising hopes for an EU-U.S. agreement, but investors should remain cautious ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, which could trigger volatility in European equities, particularly autos.
• Sector Rotation Opportunities: Strong performance in autos and industrials suggests potential short-term gains, while tech and semiconductors remain vulnerable to order variability and policy uncertainty.
• Crypto Consolidation Signals Caution: Bitcoin’s rangebound movement above $118K reflects cautious optimism; traders may await Fed guidance before taking directional bets.
• Monitor Fed and EU Data: Powell’s upcoming remarks and Eurozone consumer confidence data will provide crucial clues for rate trajectory and consumer resilience, guiding asset allocation strategies.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 25, 2025	Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash (July)	Key gauge of EU economic resilience ahead of trade negotiations
Jul 30, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting	Guidance on interest rates could impact global risk sentiment
Aug 1, 2025	U.S.-EU Tariff Deadline	Critical for global trade flows; potential for retaliatory measures

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.

Key Points

• AstraZeneca to invest $50 billion in the U.S. as pharma tariffs weigh: The pharma giant announced a record U.S. investment, including a Virginia-based GLP-1 production facility, as global drugmakers ramp up U.S. spending ahead of potential 200% tariffs under Trump’s reshoring push.
• China, Hong Kong shares extend rally on Tibet dam project boost: Chinese and Hong Kong equities hit multi-month highs, driven by construction and power stocks after Beijing launched a $170 billion hydropower project in Tibet, signaling renewed investor confidence amid easing U.S.-China tensions.
• Treasury yields creep higher as investors await Fed chair Powell’s speech: U.S. 10-year yields edged to 4.389% as markets awaited Powell’s comments on monetary policy, with investors assessing Fed independence amid Trump’s repeated criticism and calls for leadership changes.
• Dollar dithers as investors await more tariff clarity: The dollar held firm at 97.91, supported by solid U.S. economic data, while investors awaited developments on August 1 tariff deadlines, with the euro pressured by stalled EU-U.S. trade talks and escalating tariff risks.

AstraZeneca to Invest $50 Billion in the U.S.

AstraZeneca announced a $50 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing and R&D by 2030, underscoring the pharmaceutical industry’s shift to reshore operations amid looming trade tariffs. The centerpiece will be a multi-billion-dollar Virginia facility to produce its GLP-1 weight management drugs, integrating AI and automation to optimize production. Additional funding will expand operations in Maryland, Massachusetts, California, Indiana and Texas, creating tens of thousands of jobs.

CEO Pascal Soriot said the U.S. could account for half of the firm’s projected $80 billion annual revenue by 2030, as global drugmakers race to mitigate potential U.S. tariffs of up to 200%.

China, Hong Kong Shares Extend Rally on Tibet Dam Project Boost

Chinese and Hong Kong equities advanced, supported by construction and power firms after Beijing launched a $170 billion hydropower dam project in Tibet, billed as the world’s largest. The CSI300 Index rose 0.8% to an eight-month high, and the Hang Seng climbed 0.5% to 25,130, its highest level since November 2021. Anhui Conch Cement and Power Construction Co. hit the daily 10% limit, while the CSI Coal Index surged nearly 7%.

Sentiment was buoyed by easing U.S.-China tensions, Beijing’s policy support for long-term stock investments, and renewed confidence in manufacturing, though analysts caution economic headwinds may persist later this year.

Treasury Yields Creep Higher as Investors Await Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

U.S. Treasury yields inched higher Tuesday as markets awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech for policy signals. The 10-year yield rose to 4.389%, while the 30-year climbed to 4.959%, and the 2-year held near 3.865%. Investor focus remains on the Fed’s rate stance amid mounting political pressure, with President Donald Trump pushing for Powell’s removal and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questioning the Fed’s effectiveness and reluctance to cut rates despite subdued inflation.

With limited economic data this week, attention turns to Powell’s remarks and upcoming housing and durable goods figures for further rate outlook cues.

Dollar Dithers as Investors Await More Tariff Clarity

The dollar edged higher Tuesday, with the Dollar Index at 97.91, as traders awaited clarity on trade talks ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline that could impose steep duties on U.S. trading partners. The yen held most of Monday’s election-driven gains, while the euro eased to $1.1692 amid fading prospects for a U.S.-EU trade agreement and growing risk of tit-for-tat tariff escalation.

Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors weighing Federal Reserve independence concerns and potential inflationary pressures from tariffs. Analysts expect solid U.S. data and rate differentials to support the dollar, barring sudden shifts in White House policy.

Conclusion

Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic catalysts: strong Chinese infrastructure signals support equities in Asia, while AstraZeneca’s bold U.S. move reflects ongoing supply-chain realignment under trade headwinds. In the U.S., modest Treasury yield rise and dollar resilience underscore investor caution ahead of Fed commentary and looming tariffs. Maintaining portfolio discipline—with exposure to real economy growth drivers, defensive U.S. yields, and currency hedges—can help navigate evolving risks and opportunities.

Investment Insights

China’s Infrastructure Push: The $170 billion Tibet dam project and supportive policy measures are reinforcing investor confidence in Chinese construction and power sectors, signaling potential upside in related equities despite longer-term economic headwinds.

Pharma Reshoring Trend: AstraZeneca’s $50 billion U.S. investment highlights a structural shift toward domestic biopharma manufacturing, benefiting U.S.-listed pharma suppliers and industrial automation players.

Fed Policy Uncertainty: Rising Treasury yields and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve increase volatility risk in bonds; short-duration bonds may offer a safer positioning until Powell’s policy stance is clarified.

Tariff-Driven FX Volatility: Dollar strength remains supported by solid economic data and tariff-induced inflation prospects, but escalating trade tensions could spur short-term volatility, favoring defensive positioning in safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 22, 2025	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (June)	Signals U.K. fiscal health, could affect sterling
Jul 22, 2025	USD: Fed Chair Powell Speech	May influence interest rate outlook and bond yields
Jul 22, 2025	USD: Richmond Manufacturing Index (July)	A gauge of regional manufacturing momentum
Jul 23, 2025	EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speech	Insight into euro‑area monetary policy direction

Key Points

• Australian Stocks Hit Record High: Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 surged to a record 8,757.2, supported by mining and biotech gains, while broader Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed following strong U.S. economic data and corporate earnings.
• Hedge Funds Exit Japanese Equities: Global hedge funds sold Japanese stocks at the fastest pace in over two months ahead of the upper house election, with political uncertainty adding to July’s underperformance in the Nikkei 225 and Topix.
• U.S. Rare-Earth Magnet Imports from China Jump 660%: American firms rushed to secure critical rare-earth magnets after a preliminary trade deal, highlighting U.S. dependency on China’s near-monopoly in advanced manufacturing components.
• U.S.-EU Tariff Tensions Escalate: Washington confirmed an Aug. 1 deadline for 30% tariffs on EU imports, pressuring Brussels to secure a deal as analysts warn even a 15%-20% rate could severely damage European exports, particularly in autos.

Australian Stocks Hit Record High Amid Mixed Asia-Pacific Trading

Australian equities surged to fresh record highs, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing 1.37% higher at 8,757.2, driven by gains in mining and biotech heavyweights such as BHP, Rio Tinto, and CSL. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, as South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.13% while China’s CSI 300 rose 0.6%. TSMC gained over 2% after posting a 61% jump in Q2 profit, underscoring sustained AI chip demand.

Meanwhile, Japan’s core inflation cooled to 3.3% in June, in line with expectations, while rice price easing supported the decline. Bitcoin rebounded above $120,000 as U.S. lawmakers advanced stablecoin regulation.

Hedge Funds Cut Japanese Equity Exposure Ahead of Election Setback

Global hedge funds sold Japanese equities at the fastest pace in over two months ahead of Sunday’s upper house election, Goldman Sachs reported. The Nikkei 225 is down 1.7% month-to-date, while the Topix has fallen 0.6%, underperforming global peers. The election dealt a political blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, further pressuring sentiment, though he pledged to stay in office to conclude U.S. tariff negotiations.

Goldman noted hedge fund activity was driven by increased short positioning and moderate long reductions between July 11–17, reflecting heightened caution toward Japan’s political and economic outlook.

U.S. Rare-Earth Magnet Imports from China Surge Amid Supply Race

China’s exports of rare-earth magnets to the U.S. jumped 660% in June to 353 metric tons, as American firms rushed to secure supplies following last month’s preliminary trade framework between Washington and Beijing. The U.S., heavily reliant on imports for automotive, electronics, and renewable energy sectors, was China’s second-largest buyer after Germany. Total Chinese exports rose 160% from May to 3,188 metric tons but remained 38% below last year’s levels.

The surge highlights China’s dominance, controlling 90% of the rare-earth magnet market, and underscores the U.S.’s struggle to diversify supply despite recent recycling initiatives.

U.S. Holds Firm on Tariff Deadline as EU Scrambles for Deal

The U.S. reaffirmed its Aug. 1 deadline for imposing a baseline 30% tariff on EU imports, raising pressure on Brussels to strike a trade deal. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said talks could continue after the deadline, but tariffs will take effect as planned. Economists warn that even a negotiated 15%-20% rate would severely hit European exports, particularly Germany’s auto sector, already pressured by euro strength.

The EU is preparing retaliatory measures, including levies on up to €72 billion of U.S. goods, signaling a tougher stance as it seeks a deal comparable to the U.K.’s lower-tariff framework.

Conclusion

Global markets are navigating a complex landscape where policy pressures and economic data are shaping sentiment. The EU’s new crude cap adds geopolitical weight, while U.S. and European earnings continue to buoy equity markets. Despite a softer dollar, underlying strength in U.S. retail and job figures suggests Fed caution. With both macroeconomic indicators and corporate results delivering surprises, investors should maintain flexibility as central bank communications and trade developments introduce volatility.

Investment Insights

Australian equities’ record high highlights investor rotation into resource-heavy markets amid strong commodity demand; selective exposure to mining and biotech remains attractive.

Hedge fund selloff in Japan ahead of elections suggests political risk repricing; long-term investors may find value opportunities if post-election policy stabilizes.

U.S. scramble for rare-earth magnets underscores supply chain vulnerabilities; companies securing alternative sourcing or recycling capabilities could gain a strategic edge.

U.S.-EU tariff tensions threaten European exporters, particularly autos; investors should monitor hedging opportunities and consider defensive positioning in EU industrials.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 22, 2025	Fed Chair Powell speaks at banking conference	Signals on inflation and rate path guidance
Jul 23, 2025	ECB policy meeting	Could explore rate adjustments amid euro strength
Jul 25, 2025	U.S. Leading Index (June) & PPI YoY	Key data for assessing growth and inflation trends

Key Points

• S&P 500 Hits Fresh Record: The S&P 500 closed at a record 6,297.36, boosted by strong corporate earnings and better-than-expected U.S. retail sales, reinforcing optimism about consumer resilience.
• EU Tightens Russian Oil Sanctions: The EU approved its 18th sanctions package against Russia, introducing a lower price cap on Russian crude to further limit Moscow’s oil revenues while maintaining global supply stability.
• European Stocks Rise on Earnings Optimism: European indices edged higher, supported by positive earnings, with Burberry showing signs of recovery and Saab raising its sales forecast, while German producer prices confirmed weak inflation pressures.
• Dollar Pares Gains but Holds Weekly Strength: The U.S. dollar slipped 0.4% Friday but stayed on track for a second consecutive weekly gain as solid U.S. economic data delayed Fed rate-cut expectations.

S&P 500 Hits New Closing Record on Strong Earnings

U.S. stocks climbed Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.54% to a record 6,297.36 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.75% to 20,885.65, marking its tenth record close this year. The Dow advanced 0.52% to 44,484.49. Investor sentiment was buoyed by robust corporate earnings — 88% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten estimates — and upbeat economic data. PepsiCo surged over 7% and United Airlines gained 3% after strong results. Retail sales rose 0.6% in June, well above forecasts, and jobless claims fell to 221,000, reinforcing confidence in U.S. consumer resilience.

EU Lowers Price Cap for Russian Crude Under New Sanctions Package

The European Union has approved its 18th sanctions package against Russia, introducing a lower oil price cap aimed at further squeezing Moscow’s energy revenues while maintaining global supply stability. The previous $60-per-barrel limit, set in December 2022, restricted non-G7 buyers from accessing G7 transport and insurance services if they paid above that price.

EU officials, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, said the new “dynamic” cap strikes at Russia’s war financing, while also sanctioning Rosneft’s largest refinery in India for the first time. Details of the revised cap level remain undisclosed.

European Stocks Gain on Earnings Optimism; Burberry Signals Recovery

European markets edged higher Friday, supported by strong corporate earnings and Wall Street’s overnight rally. Germany’s DAX rose 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.6%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%. Burberry reported a smaller-than-expected 1% decline in Q1 comparable retail sales, hinting at a turnaround, while Saab raised its full-year growth forecast after a 32% surge in Q2 sales.

Reckitt Benckiser agreed to sell its Essential Home business for $4.8 billion, and Electrolux returned to profit. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $69.92 amid Iraqi supply disruptions, reinforcing concerns over tight global oil markets.

Dollar Slips but Remains on Track for Weekly Gain Amid Strong U.S. Data

The U.S. dollar edged lower Friday, with the Dollar Index down 0.4% to 98.10, but it remains on course for a 0.7% weekly gain as solid U.S. economic data bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve could delay rate cuts. Retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, jobless claims fell to a three-month low, and inflation rose at its fastest pace in five months, partly due to tariffs.

EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1623, while GBP/USD climbed 0.2% to 1.3432 but remained set for weekly losses. USD/JPY traded at 148.63, weighed by political uncertainty in Japan.

Conclusion

Global markets are navigating a complex backdrop: EU tightening oil caps to pressure Russia, while U.S. equities hit fresh records underpinned by robust earnings and consumer data. In Europe, corporate results and earnings momentum in luxury and industrials are bolstering sentiment.

The dollar trades modestly lower but is set for weekly gains amid resilient U.S. economic indicators, even as Fed Governor Waller signals a likely rate cut by month-end. Meanwhile, Japan’s export slump underscores trade vulnerabilities as tariff talks with the U.S. stall. Investors should remain alert to monetary signals and geopolitical shifts that could reshape market risk across asset classes.

Investment Insights

• U.S. Equity Momentum: Record S&P 500 and Nasdaq closes, driven by strong earnings and resilient retail sales, signal continued investor confidence, favoring growth and consumer stocks, though valuations are becoming stretched.
• EU Sanctions & Oil Cap: The EU’s lowered price cap on Russian crude reinforces supply-side constraints, supporting medium-term bullishness in energy equities and oil-linked currencies. Investors should monitor potential retaliatory measures from Moscow.
• European Corporate Recovery: Positive earnings from Burberry, Saab, and Reckitt suggest selective opportunities in European luxury, defense, and consumer sectors despite lingering trade tensions.
• Dollar Strength: Strong U.S. economic data and delayed Fed rate-cut expectations continue to underpin dollar demand, benefiting dollar-denominated assets but pressuring emerging-market currencies.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 22, 2025	Fed Chair Powell speaks at banking conf.	Insights on timing and direction of interest rate cuts
Jul 29–30, 2025	U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting	Markets await possible rate cut and updated commentary on inflation trajectory
Aug 1, 2025	U.S.–Japan reciprocal tariffs take effect	Could further pressure Japanese exports and influence global trade dynamics

Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations

Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $400 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Direction	Date	Symbol	Asset Name	Price at Recommendation	Target Price	Current Price
Buy	July 10, 2025	UNM	Unum Group	$80.10	$105.00	$78.97
Buy	July 10, 2025	CE	Celanese Corporation	$63.24	$85.00	$57.51
Buy	June 23rd, 2025	MDLZ	Mondelez International, Inc.	$68.31	$95.00	$66.74
Buy	June 23rd, 2025	ALKT	Alkami Technology, Inc.	$27.95	$44.00	$27.99
Buy	June 23rd, 2025	BMRN	BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.	$55.00	$84.00	$56.62
Sell	March 7th, 2025	KTB	Kontoor Brands, Inc.	$61.17	$37.00	$64.96
Sell	February 25th, 2025	RIVN	Rivian Automotive, Inc.	$12.00	$8.00	$12.63

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.

Key Points

• Crypto Regulation Stalemate: U.S. House narrowly advanced debate on key crypto regulation bills after a record-long vote, exposing deep Republican divisions and casting doubt on the passage of a unified framework.
• TSMC Hits Record Profit: Taiwan Semiconductor posted a 61% surge in Q2 profit on robust AI chip demand, but trade tensions and potential U.S. tariffs pose risks to its outlook.
• Seven & i Shares Plunge: Japan’s Seven & i tumbled over 7% after Couche-Tard withdrew its $47 billion takeover bid, citing lack of constructive engagement from the Japanese retailer.
• Japan’s Exports Decline: Exports fell for a second month, down 0.5% in June, with U.S.-bound shipments plunging 11.4% as 25% tariffs weigh, raising fears of a technical recession.

Crypto Regulation Bills Advance After Record House Vote

The U.S. House narrowly approved debate rules for three key crypto regulation bills after a record-setting 10-hour vote, highlighting deep divisions within the Republican conference. The GENIUS Act, already passed by the Senate, along with the CLARITY Act and a bill barring a Federal Reserve-issued digital currency, faced resistance from both conservative holdouts and moderate Republicans over last-minute changes.

Despite late-night negotiations and direct intervention from President Trump, doubts remain over whether the GOP can align enough to pass final versions, dampening the crypto industry’s hopes for a swift regulatory framework.

TSMC Profit Surges 61% to Record High on AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company posted a 61% year-on-year jump in second-quarter profit, reaching NT$398.27 billion, as AI chip demand drove record revenue of NT$933.80 billion ($31.7 billion). High-performance computing, including AI and 5G applications, accounted for 60% of sales, up from 52% last year.

TSMC expects full-year revenue to grow 30% in U.S. dollar terms, supported by surging demand for advanced nodes below 7nm, which made up 74% of wafer revenue. However, uncertainties linger over U.S. tariff threats and macro headwinds, despite stable customer demand so far in the second half of 2025.

Seven & i Shares Plunge as Couche-Tard Abandons $47 Billion Takeover Bid

Shares of Japan’s Seven & i Holdings tumbled 7.38% Thursday after Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard withdrew its $47 billion takeover offer, citing a “persistent lack of good faith engagement.” The bid, which valued Seven & i at ¥7 trillion, was initially raised by over 22% to $18.19 per share after a prior rejection in 2024.

Analysts noted that Japanese protectionism and Seven & i’s strategic importance made the deal unlikely. The retailer, operator of 7-Eleven stores, expressed disappointment at the termination, while trading was briefly halted before resuming mid-morning in Tokyo.

Japan’s Exports Fall Again as Tariffs Weigh, Raising Recession Fears

Japan’s exports contracted 0.5% year over year in June, marking a second straight monthly decline and reversing economists’ forecast for a modest gain. Exports to the U.S. fell 11.4%, their steepest drop since 2020, with auto shipments plunging 26.7% in value as carmakers absorbed 25% U.S. tariffs through price cuts.

Analysts warned that the additional tariffs, set to take effect August 1, could push Japan into a technical recession after its economy contracted in Q1.

With no trade deal in sight, political risks are mounting ahead of the July 20 Upper House elections.

Conclusion

This week highlights a policy-driven pivot across global markets: U.S. regulatory clarity in crypto, AI-led earnings at TSMC, trade‑driven softness in Japan’s export figures, and a disrupted M&A deal in Tokyo. With the backdrop of escalating trade friction and shifting geopolitical risks, investors should watch for central-bank responses and legislative developments.

Market sentiment remains sensitive to policy moves, making selective positioning in tech growth stocks and export‑exposed sectors prudent as macro forces continue to shape momentum.

Investment Insights

Volatility across global markets is being driven by trade tensions, corporate earnings, and sector-specific disruptions. TSMC’s record profit underscores the sustained AI-driven semiconductor demand, reinforcing long-term bullish sentiment for advanced chipmakers despite tariff risks. Meanwhile, ASML’s cautious 2026 outlook highlights geopolitical uncertainty in tech supply chains.

Central banks’ shift toward domestic gold purchases reflects a hedging strategy against currency risk and geopolitical shocks, benefiting gold miners in producer nations. Automotive and retail sectors face structural pressures — GM’s expansion signals resilience in U.S. manufacturing, while Japan’s weak exports and Tesla’s leadership shake-up raise near-term recession and EV-demand concerns.

Upcoming Key Dates to Watch

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Jul 17, 2025	U.S. Initial Jobless Claims	Key gauge of labor market strength, shaping Fed policy outlook
Jul 18, 2025	U.S. CPI report – Consumer inflation data	Will directly influence interest‑rate expectations and bond yields
Jul 22, 2025	FOMC Meeting Minutes	Provides insight into Fed’s stance on rates and economic risks

Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations

Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $400 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Direction	Date	Symbol	Asset Name	Price at Recommendation	Target Price	Current Price
Buy	July 10, 2025	UNM	Unum Group	$80.10	$105.00	$78.97
Buy	July 10, 2025	CE	Celanese Corporation	$63.24	$85.00	$57.51
Buy	June 23rd, 2025	MDLZ	Mondelez International, Inc.	$68.31	$95.00	$66.74
Buy	June 23rd, 2025	ALKT	Alkami Technology, Inc.	$27.95	$44.00	$27.99
Buy	June 23rd, 2025	BMRN	BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.	$55.00	$84.00	$56.62
Sell	March 7th, 2025	KTB	Kontoor Brands, Inc.	$61.17	$37.00	$64.96
Sell	February 25th, 2025	RIVN	Rivian Automotive, Inc.	$12.00	$8.00	$12.63

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.