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Global markets face turbulence as U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China trigger volatility in equities, oil, and currencies, with China retaliating on U.S. agricultural imports. Oil prices fell further as OPEC+ plans to boost output, while TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in U.S. chipmaking, enhancing its AI supply chain. In the UK, shop prices rose at their fastest pace in a year, driven by food inflation and rising retailer costs, prompting warnings of further price hikes. Meanwhile, Seven & i shares dropped 7.8% amid speculation it may reject a $47 billion buyout offer from Couche-Tard, highlighting Japan’s shifting stance on foreign capital.

Global Markets Stagger as Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty Take Center Stage

Global markets reeled as U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect, triggering significant volatility across equities, commodities, and currencies. The S&P 500 fell 1.8%, while oil slumped to a three-month low amid signs of slowing U.S. growth. China retaliated with tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. agricultural imports like soy, pork, and beef, while its equities showed resilience, signaling room for negotiation. Emerging-market currencies and the Canadian and Mexican pesos slipped as geopolitical tensions escalated. Meanwhile, Beijing’s upcoming National People’s Congress is expected to unveil economic stimulus measures to combat deflation and bolster growth. Cryptocurrencies remained under pressure, with Bitcoin extending losses, and OPEC+ stuck to plans to revive oil production despite price declines.

Investment Insight

Heightened global trade tensions and slowing U.S. growth signal caution for equities in the short term. Look to defensive assets like gold or explore opportunities in resilient Asian markets such as China and Japan, which may benefit from forthcoming stimulus measures.

Oil Slumps as Tariffs Bite and OPEC+ Eyes Output Hike

Oil prices continued their slide, with Brent nearing $71 a barrel and WTI hovering around $68, as the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect. Beijing retaliated with levies on U.S. agricultural products, intensifying trade war fears. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced plans to increase oil production in April after months of delays, adding to concerns of a supply surplus. Analysts warn that the combination of trade tensions and higher output could further weaken global demand for crude.

Investment Insight

Investors should brace for continued oil price volatility as trade tensions and oversupply fears weigh on the market. Consider energy sector exposure selectively, focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and resilience in low-price environments.

TSMC Commits $100 Billion to US Chipmaking in Boost for Trump’s Domestic Manufacturing Push

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s leading AI chip producer, announced an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. plants, further expanding its domestic presence to support President Donald Trump’s goal of bolstering American manufacturing. The new spending, which builds on $65 billion in prior commitments, will establish multiple advanced chip facilities, creating thousands of high-tech jobs. The announcement comes as TSMC aims to anchor a resilient AI supply chain in the U.S., with key partners like Nvidia and Apple relying on its output. While critics question the scale of the investment, analysts suggest political pressure, rather than tariffs, drove TSMC’s decision.

Investment Insight

TSMC’s U.S. expansion underscores the strategic importance of semiconductors and AI technology. Investors may focus on companies benefiting from a strengthened U.S. chip supply chain, including Nvidia and AMD, while monitoring broader geopolitical implications for the sector.

Market price: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TPE:2330): TWD 1,000.00

Shop Prices Surge as Food Costs and Retailer Pressures Mount

Shop prices in the UK rose 0.4% between January and February, the sharpest monthly increase in a year, driven by price hikes for staples like butter, cheese, eggs, and bread. Food prices climbed 2.1% year-on-year, and the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warns they could hit 4% later this year. Rising global coffee costs, a £7 billion hike in retailer costs from the autumn Budget, and a new packaging levy are expected to fuel further inflation. Major retailers like Tesco and M&S cautioned that these pressures may lead to store closures and job cuts, while economists question whether the government can mitigate the impact amidst limited fiscal flexibility.

Investment Insight

Higher food inflation and rising retailer costs could squeeze margins for UK supermarkets and high-street chains. Investors might consider defensive consumer staples or discount retailers better positioned to weather inflationary pressures.

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The euro and Eastern European currencies climbed as Europe rallied behind Ukraine, boosting defense stocks while pressuring bond markets. Meanwhile, China may reintroduce coal import controls to address oversupply, highlighting risks for mining profitability amid record production. Chinese factories saw a surge in orders ahead of U.S. tariff hikes, but growth risks persist as Beijing’s National People’s Congress aims to counter economic headwinds. President Trump proposed a U.S. crypto reserve, sparking a crypto rally, though funding and policy uncertainties loom. Gold prices edged higher on a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal as markets await key U.S. economic data later this week.

Euro and Stocks Climb as Europe Rallies Behind Ukraine

The euro strengthened by 0.4% against the dollar, buoyed by European efforts to support Ukraine amidst U.S. policy uncertainty. Eastern European currencies like the Polish zloty and Romanian leu also gained, while European equities tracked Asian stocks higher. Leaders in Europe are forming a “coalition of the willing” to bolster Ukraine, with potential increases in defense spending benefiting firms like Rheinmetall AG and BAE Systems Plc. Meanwhile, markets eye geopolitical developments, China’s National People’s Congress, and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.

Investment Insight: Heightened European defense spending signals growth opportunities in the sector, but rising debt issuance could pressure bond markets. Diversify exposure to capture gains in defense equities while hedging against potential debt-related risks.

China Considers Coal Import Controls Amid Oversupply Concerns

China may reintroduce coal import controls to address oversupply, as demand falls short of expectations, causing a sharp decline in prices. Industry groups have urged miners to limit output and importers to curb lower-quality shipments. While a complete ban is unlikely due to WTO obligations, authorities could discourage imports through delays or inspections, similar to measures taken in prior years. Thermal coal prices have hit their lowest level since 2021, testing the government-regulated floor. Beijing’s focus on energy security has driven record coal production at the expense of decarbonization progress.

Investment Insight: Falling coal prices and potential import restrictions could pressure mining profitability. Investors should monitor policy developments and consider reallocating to renewable energy sectors, which stand to benefit from China’s eventual shift back to decarbonization goals.

Chinese Factories See Surge in Orders Ahead of U.S. Tariff Hike

Chinese manufacturers reported stronger-than-expected orders in February as importers rushed to beat a U.S. tariff increase from 10% to 20%, effective Tuesday. The official purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.2, signaling slight expansion, while new orders climbed to 51.1. Analysts attribute the uptick to government spending and importers “front-running” tariffs. However, growth risks remain as the higher tariffs take effect. The annual National People’s Congress is expected to outline policies to counter slowing growth, projected to fall below 5% this year.

Investment Insight: Short-term export boosts may mask broader challenges for China’s manufacturing sector as tariffs and economic headwinds intensify. Consider reducing exposure to trade-sensitive industries while exploring opportunities in domestic consumption and tech innovation tied to Beijing’s policy priorities.

Trump Proposes Crypto Reserve, Details Unclear

President Donald Trump announced plans for a U.S. crypto reserve including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano, sparking a crypto rally. Bitcoin rose 10%, while Ether gained 13% before retracing slightly. Uncertainty surrounds funding for the reserve, with speculation pointing to seized crypto assets. Meanwhile, looming 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% on China, add to market volatility. Analysts warn of economic risks as U.S. GDP forecasts turn negative, and all eyes are on Friday’s jobs report and Powell’s speech for clarity on monetary policy.

Investment Insight: Crypto markets may see volatility from Trump’s announcement, but funding challenges and policy uncertainty could limit upside. Consider short-term opportunities in major cryptocurrencies while remaining cautious of broader economic risks tied to tariffs and weak U.S. data.

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Markets Reeling as Trump’s New Tariffs Spark Fears and Global Equities Tumble

Markets are reeling as President Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China spark fears of trade tensions, sending global equities tumbling and safe-haven assets rallying. Meanwhile, Tencent unveiled its Hunyuan Turbo S AI model to rival DeepSeek, highlighting China’s intensifying AI race, though profitability remains a concern.

In crypto, Bitcoin has plunged 25% from its January peak amid risk-off sentiment, with ETFs seeing record outflows. Broadcom fell 7% alongside a broader chip selloff, with analysts pointing to key support and resistance levels as uncertainty clouds tech stocks. Lastly, China tightened its grip on critical metals by investing record sums in overseas mining, deepening global concerns over supply chain dependencies.

Market Turmoil as Trump’s New Tariffs Hit Global Stocks

Equities tumbled worldwide after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, sparking fears of heightened trade tensions. Asian markets posted their sharpest drop in a month, while European and US futures signaled further losses. The S&P 500 slid 1.6%, erasing its gains for the year, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.8%, with Nvidia plunging 8.5%. Treasury yields dropped to December lows as havens rallied, while the dollar strengthened.

Economists warned the tariffs could dampen growth and worsen inflation, with potential recessions in Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, China vowed retaliation, deepening uncertainty.

Investment Insight:

Heightened trade tensions are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like Treasuries and away from riskier equities, especially tech stocks. Near-term caution is advised, though China’s potential stimulus measures could restore sentiment in its markets. Diversification and hedging strategies remain key.

Tencent Joins AI Arms Race With Hunyuan Turbo S

Tencent Holdings unveiled its Hunyuan Turbo S AI model, claiming it surpasses DeepSeek, the Chinese startup that has revolutionized the AI landscape. The Turbo S focuses on instant responsiveness, contrasting with DeepSeek’s deep reasoning approach, and is now available via Tencent Cloud. This move follows a surge of AI rollouts from major players like Alibaba, Baidu, and ByteDance, as Chinese tech giants intensify efforts to close the gap with US counterparts.

Despite Tencent’s advancements, analysts suggest its AI ventures will remain unprofitable in the near term.

Investment Insight:

The AI race in China is accelerating, but profitability remains elusive for many players. Investors should monitor Tencent’s AI cloud strategy and its ability to convert innovation into meaningful revenue, while considering broader opportunities in AI infrastructure and cloud services.

Market price: Tencent Holdings Ltd. (HKG: 0700): HKD 478.80

Bitcoin Drops 25% From Peak as Crypto Selloff Deepens

Bitcoin plunged 5.5% in Asian trading, extending losses to 25% from its all-time high of $109,241 in January. Broader cryptocurrencies like Ether, Solana, and XRP also fell sharply amid a global risk-off sentiment fueled by President Trump’s tariff announcements. Once buoyed by hopes of Trump’s pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin’s rally has reversed as economic uncertainty and bearish market sentiment weigh heavily on digital assets.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1 billion in outflows this week, underscoring waning investor confidence.

Investment Insight:

The crypto market’s volatility highlights the importance of cautious positioning. With Bitcoin near $79,000, technical support at $70,000 may offer a potential floor, but broader market sentiment remains a decisive factor. Diversification into less volatile assets could help mitigate near-term risks.

Broadcom Falls 7% Amid Chip Selloff: Key Levels to Watch

Broadcom (AVGO) shares slid 7% Thursday, hitting a one-month low as chip stocks tumbled following Nvidia’s earnings and President Trump’s new tariff announcements. The stock has dropped 15% year-to-date but remains up over 50% in the past year, fueled by AI chip demand.

Technical analysis highlights key support levels at $185, $160, and $140, while resistance at $230 and a speculative upside target of $295 could come into play if the longer-term uptrend resumes.

Investment Insight:

Chip stocks are under pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and AI-related spending concerns. Investors should closely monitor Broadcom’s technical levels and broader market sentiment before taking positions. A potential rebound could offer opportunities, but downside risks persist.

Market price: Broadcom Inc (AVGO): USD 197.80

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Markets are Grappling with Uncertainty as Nvidia’s Strong Earnings Were Overshadowed by Geopolitical Risks

Markets are facing uncertainty as Nvidia’s strong earnings were overshadowed by geopolitical risks, including President Trump’s sweeping tariff plans on the EU, Mexico, and Canada. Asian equities dropped, with European futures down 0.9%, while oil steadied near its yearly low amid concerns over Russian supply increases.

In Japan, Seven & I Holdings shares plunged after the founding family failed to secure funding for a $58 billion buyout, leaving Canada’s Couche-Tard poised for a potential acquisition. Nomura downgraded Taiwanese stocks, citing AI sector scrutiny and US tariffs, with TSMC underperforming the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index.

Meanwhile, gold retreated 0.8% from its record high as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the metal, while investors await the Fed’s inflation data for further monetary policy signals.

Nvidia Beats Estimates, Tariff Worries Weigh on Stocks

Asian equities fell Thursday as Nvidia’s mixed outlook failed to sustain investor enthusiasm, and President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on EU goods and potential trade restrictions on chips rattled markets. Nvidia posted strong Q4 earnings — beating estimates with $0.89 EPS on $39.3 billion revenue — and issued solid Q1 guidance, buoyed by the rapid success of its Blackwell AI chips.

However, concerns over tighter profit margins, supply chain constraints, and the rise of alternatives like custom AI chips from Big Tech dampened some optimism. European futures dropped as much as 0.9%, while Nvidia’s stock initially climbed on its earnings report but pared gains in after-hours trading. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields edged higher as traders anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts amidst slowing economic growth.

Investment Insight:

Nvidia remains a dominant force in AI, but geopolitical risks like tariffs and export controls loom large. Investors should monitor Big Tech’s shift toward custom AI chips and consider the potential impact on Nvidia’s revenue. Diversifying into regions like Europe and China or hedging with fixed-income assets may help navigate this uncertain environment.

Market price: Nvidia Corp (NVDA): USD 131.28

7-Eleven Owner’s Founding Family Fails in Buyout Bid, Couche-Tard Eyes Acquisition

Japan’s Seven & I Holdings, the owner of 7-Eleven, announced that its founding Ito family failed to secure the $58 billion needed for a management buyout. This opens the door for Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard, which has proposed a $47 billion acquisition. The company stated it is now evaluating Couche-Tard’s offer alongside other strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.

Seven & I shares plunged over 12% in Tokyo trading, marking their worst drop since 2005, while Itochu, a key stakeholder, rose 6.8% after ending its consideration of the buyout. Couche-Tard reaffirmed its commitment to negotiating a deal, underscoring the growing foreign interest in Japanese assets amid improving corporate governance and economic reforms.

Investment Insight:

The collapse of the founding family’s buyout bid strengthens Couche-Tard’s position, signaling potential opportunities in Japanese equities as global investors target undervalued assets. Seven & I’s stock remains volatile, but Couche-Tard’s acquisition pursuit may provide upside potential.

Oil Prices Steady Near Year’s Low Amid Tariff and Supply Concerns

Oil prices stabilized near their lowest close of the year, with Brent crude trading below $73 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $69. The market remains pressured by US President Trump’s tariff threats against Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, compounding concerns about economic growth. Crude is on track for its largest monthly loss since September, overshadowing potential price lifts from tighter Iran sanctions and OPEC+ production delays.

On the supply front, Trump’s plan to revoke Chevron’s Venezuelan oil license threatens the nation’s recovery, while Iraq announced an agreement to restart Kurdistan crude exports without specifying timing. Additionally, prospects of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia raise the possibility of increased Russian oil supplies, further weighing on prices.

Investment Insight:

Oil markets face persistent headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty and weakening demand signals. Investors should remain cautious, as potential Russian supply increases and global trade tensions could keep prices under pressure in the near term.

Nomura Downgrades Taiwanese Stocks Amid AI Scrutiny and Tariff Concerns

Nomura Holdings downgraded Taiwanese equities from “tactical overweight” to “neutral,” citing rising scrutiny of the AI sector, US tariff threats, and elevated valuations. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the island’s largest stock, has fallen over 3% this year, underperforming the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which gained 3.6%.

The move comes as cost-efficient AI models from Chinese startup DeepSeek raise questions about the need for massive capital expenditure, potentially impacting TSMC, a key supplier to Apple and Nvidia. Meanwhile, tensions between China and Taiwan and President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods continue to weigh on sentiment.

Investment Insight:

Taiwan’s equity outlook faces pressure from geopolitical risks and valuation concerns. Investors may consider shifting focus to Chinese equities, which Nomura highlighted for their innovation-driven recovery and reduced discount to global peers.

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Global markets steadied Wednesday after weak U.S. consumer data shook sentiment, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallying on optimism over China’s tech advancements and AI growth. U.S. oil stabilized near $69 a barrel amid demand concerns, while copper surged 4.9% after President Trump launched a tariff probe to protect U.S. producers. Tesla shares plunged 8%, falling below a $1 trillion market cap, as European sales dropped 45% in January, highlighting intensifying competition. Meanwhile, the FAA tapped SpaceX’s Starlink for airspace IT upgrades, raising conflict-of-interest concerns around Elon Musk’s dual roles. Investors remain focused on Nvidia’s earnings and OPEC+ production controls as key market drivers.

Global Markets Stabilize, Hang Seng Soars Amid Optimism

Global assets steadied Wednesday after weak U.S. economic data spurred investor caution. Asian markets outperformed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index continuing its rally, driven by optimism over China’s tech advancements and renewed AI development. U.S. and European futures pointed to gains, while 10-year Treasury yields rebounded slightly after sharp declines. Key focus remains on Nvidia’s earnings, seen as pivotal for market sentiment. Meanwhile, copper rose on news of potential U.S. tariffs, and oil prices stabilized after slipping into the $60 range.

Investment Insight: The Hang Seng’s rally highlights opportunities in Chinese equities, particularly in AI-driven sectors. However, geopolitical risks and U.S.-China decoupling efforts remain significant headwinds for investors.

FAA Taps SpaceX’s Starlink for Airspace Modernization, Sparking Conflict Concerns

The FAA has awarded a contract to SpaceX’s Starlink to upgrade its IT network managing U.S. airspace, marking a step toward modernizing outdated systems. The deal, involving 4,000 terminals over 12-18 months, comes as CEO Elon Musk advocates federal budget cuts, including FAA staff reductions, raising concerns about conflicts of interest. Musk’s dual roles—as head of SpaceX and leader of the Department of Government Efficiency under President Trump—have drawn scrutiny over regulatory oversight of his businesses. Critics argue Musk’s financial interests, including the potential for lucrative space mining ventures, demand greater transparency.

Investment Insight: SpaceX’s increasing reliance on federal contracts highlights the company’s critical role in infrastructure upgrades. Investors should monitor regulatory risks and Musk’s political entanglements, which could impact market perception and government partnerships.

US Oil Stabilizes in the $60s Amid Demand Concerns

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude steadied near $69 a barrel after dropping to its lowest level since mid-December. Weak U.S. consumer confidence data and escalating trade tensions under President Trump have fueled anxiety about energy demand. Oil prices have fallen nearly 5% this month, pressured by sluggish Chinese consumption and the potential resumption of Iraqi pipeline flows. While sanctions on Iran and expected OPEC+ production limits offer some support, market sentiment remains clouded by uncertainty over global economic growth.

Investment Insight: Oil’s decline reflects broader economic fears, but OPEC+ production controls may stabilize prices. Investors should watch for geopolitical developments and further signals on global demand trends.

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Asian stocks tumbled as U.S. tariffs and curbs on Chinese investments heightened market uncertainty, while gold hit near-record highs. Tata Capital announced plans for a blockbuster IPO, signaling strong investor appetite in India’s financial sector. Chinese cobalt stocks surged after Congo’s unexpected export ban, which could tighten global supply and benefit Indonesia. Meanwhile, Japanese trading houses rallied on Warren Buffett’s increased stakes, seen as a vote of confidence in the sector. On the downside, Palantir shares plunged 25% amid U.S. defense budget cuts and valuation concerns, ending a streak of record gains.

Trump’s Tariffs and Curbs on China Rattle Asian Markets

Asian stocks experienced their sharpest drop in three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico while ordering restrictions on Chinese investments in key sectors like tech and energy. The uncertainty weighed heavily on markets in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, with 10-year Treasury yields dropping three basis points to 4.4% and gold holding near record highs. Trump’s deepening rift with U.S. allies over Ukraine and potential restrictions on semiconductor exports to China added to investor unease. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued their slide amidst broader risk-off sentiment. In Japan, trading houses rallied after Berkshire Hathaway signaled plans to increase stakes in key firms. The Bank of Korea lowered its key interest rate to 2.75%, while oil prices edged higher following new U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Investment Insight: Escalating U.S. trade tensions and geopolitical shifts are driving volatility in Asian markets. Investors should monitor sectors sensitive to tariffs and geopolitical risk while considering diversification into safe-haven assets like gold.

Tata Capital Prepares for One of India’s Biggest IPOs of 2025

Tata Capital Ltd., the financial arm of the $165 billion Tata Group, is set to go public in what could be India’s largest IPO this year, aiming to raise at least ₹150 billion ($1.7 billion). The company plans to sell 230 million new shares and offer ₹15 billion worth of stock to existing shareholders through a rights issue. This IPO could surpass the $1.5 billion offering planned by LG Electronics’ Indian unit and follows Tata Technologies’ successful IPO in 2023. The announcement boosted Tata Investment Corp.’s shares by as much as 10%, reflecting market enthusiasm. India’s IPO market continues to thrive, with $20 billion raised last year and over 60 IPOs currently in the pipeline. Tata Capital serves diverse customer segments through 900 branches, offering products ranging from consumer finance to private equity.

Investment Insight: Tata Capital’s IPO reflects strong investor appetite for India’s financial services sector. Investors should capitalize on the momentum in India’s thriving IPO market but remain selective, focusing on companies with robust fundamentals and long-term growth potential.

China’s Cobalt Stocks Soar After Congo’s Surprise Export Ban

Chinese cobalt stocks surged after the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces about 75% of the world’s cobalt, announced a four-month export ban to address global oversupply. Shares in Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co. jumped 17%, while Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. rose 7.8%. However, CMOC Group Ltd., which operates major mines in Congo, dipped 2% in Hong Kong. The export halt, expected to cut global cobalt supply by 20,000 tons, could ease oversupply and buoy prices, which have fallen to multi-decade lows. Analysts note that the ban may benefit Indonesia, the second-largest cobalt producer, as it gains market share with increased Chinese investment.

Investment Insight: Cobalt market disruptions present opportunities for investors in Chinese and Indonesian producers. Monitor supply chain adjustments and price recovery trends, as well as the strategic moves of key producers like CMOC.

Buffett’s Bet Boosts Japanese Trading House Shares

Shares of Japanese trading houses surged after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed plans to increase its stakes in key firms, including Mitsubishi Corp. and Marubeni Corp. Mitsubishi rose 9.2%, its largest gain in a year, while Marubeni and others posted similar advances. Berkshire’s long-term commitment was praised as a vote of confidence in the sector, which benefits from diversified operations across commodities, energy, and consumer goods.

Buffett highlighted the firms’ shareholder-friendly practices, such as dividends and share buybacks, and their conservative executive pay compared to U.S. companies. Analysts see the move as a signal of stability amid global market uncertainty, with trading houses trading at relatively low valuations.

Investment Insight: Buffett’s endorsement reinforces the appeal of Japanese trading houses as value plays with diversified revenue streams. Investors may find opportunities in this sector, particularly in firms with strong fundamentals and shareholder-friendly policies.

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European markets are poised for gains after Germany’s conservatives secured an election victory, boosting optimism for fiscal spending to address economic challenges. Alibaba announced a $53 billion investment in AI infrastructure, aiming to compete globally despite U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, lithium and nickel miners face cost-cutting pressures as oversupply and price crashes continue, with potential for M&A activity in 2025. Microsoft is scaling back U.S. data center leases, raising questions about AI demand sustainability amid rising competition from cheaper models like China’s DeepSeek. In trade, President Trump escalated tensions with China through sweeping restrictions on investment and shipping, signaling further strain between the world’s largest economies.

European Shares Set to Gain Following German Election Result

European markets are set for a positive start as Germany’s conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, secured a federal election victory. Futures for Germany’s DAX Index and the Euro STOXX 50 rallied, while the euro posted its largest monthly gain against the dollar, reflecting optimism over Merz’s promise to swiftly form a government. Investors expect increased fiscal spending from Germany to tackle economic challenges, including the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Asian markets saw a pause in Chinese tech rallies after President Trump restricted Chinese investment in key U.S. sectors.

Investment Insight: Germany’s election outcome signals a market-friendly environment, with potential for increased fiscal stimulus. Investors should monitor policy developments closely, as these will shape Europe’s near-term economic outlook.

Alibaba to Invest $53 Billion in AI Pivot

Alibaba Group announced plans to invest 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) in AI infrastructure, including data centers, over the next three years. This marks a dramatic pivot as the company doubles down on artificial intelligence, with a focus on developing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and expanding its cloud computing capabilities. The investment trails spending by U.S. peers like Microsoft and Meta but reflects Alibaba’s renewed determination to compete globally in AI after years of regulatory challenges. The move is part of a broader strategy to integrate AI into its core businesses and regain its market leadership in China.

Investment Insight: Alibaba’s bold AI investment underscores its commitment to long-term growth in a competitive sector. Investors should monitor its ability to execute in an AI landscape constrained by U.S. sanctions and rising competition from domestic and global peers.

Market price: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (HKG: 9988): HKD 137.2

Battery Metal Price Crash Forces Miners to Cut Costs

Lithium and nickel miners are bracing for cost cuts and potential consolidation as the sector struggles with plummeting prices and weak earnings. Key Australian lithium producers, including PLS Ltd. and IGO Ltd., reported significant losses, while nickel miners like Nickel Industries Ltd. saw impairments due to multi-year low prices. Lithium prices have dropped over 80% since 2022, and nickel has halved since 2023, fueled by oversupply and softer EV demand. Analysts expect the oversupply to persist through the decade, prompting miners to curtail spending and pause expansions, while depressed valuations may drive M&A activity in 2025.

Investment Insight: The prolonged downturn in battery metals highlights risks for investors in the sector. However, low valuations may present strategic buying opportunities, especially for major players eyeing consolidation.

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Global markets are navigating a mix of opportunities and uncertainties. Taiwan’s potential ETF rule changes and surging Chinese tech stocks highlight regional growth prospects, while gold’s rally underscores investor caution amid geopolitical tensions. Nissan’s challenges, from Moody’s downgrade to Tesla partnership talks, reflect broader struggles in the auto sector, while Trump’s push for U.S. LNG exports signals a strategic shift in Asia’s energy landscape. As economic and geopolitical dynamics evolve, investors should remain vigilant and assess opportunities in technology, energy, and safe-haven assets while balancing risks tied to restructuring and global trade uncertainties.

Taiwan Considers Lifting ETF Weighting Cap as TSMC’s Influence Grows

Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission is weighing a proposal to lift the 30% cap on single-stock weightings in local ETFs that track indexes. The move comes as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) now represents 37% of the Taiex benchmark, driven by its 140% stock surge since late 2022 amid the AI investment boom. Current rules complicate adjustments for ETFs tracking such benchmarks. A decision could come in the first half of 2025. This follows similar regulatory changes in South Korea, where ETF caps were eased in 2020 due to Samsung’s growing dominance.

Investment Insight: TSMC’s swelling market share underscores the risks of concentration in passive ETF strategies. Investors should monitor potential rule changes to assess the diversification benefits of Taiwan-based ETFs.

Market price: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TPPE:2330): TWD 1,095.00

Gold Extends Rally as ETF Inflows Surge Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Gold is on track for an eighth consecutive weekly gain—its longest streak since 2020—driven by heightened haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and trade concerns. Though bullion dipped below $2,928 an ounce on Friday, it remains over 1% higher this week. Global ETF holdings in gold surged by 16 tons, marking the largest weekly inflow since 2023. Contributing factors include fears over U.S. diplomacy with Russia on Ukraine, a weakening dollar, and central-bank buying. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce, citing sustained demand.

Investment Insight: Gold’s prolonged rally reflects its role as a hedge against geopolitical and currency risks. Investors should weigh exposure to bullion-backed ETFs as central-bank buying and dollar weakness persist.

Nissan Faces Uncertainty Amid Tesla Partnership Hopes and Moody’s Downgrade

A Japanese group, including former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, is courting Tesla to invest in Nissan following the collapse of its $60 billion merger talks with Honda. The group hopes Tesla will become a strategic partner, potentially acquiring Nissan’s U.S. plants. Elon Musk’s recent comments about Tesla’s steering-wheel-free “Cybercab” highlight the automaker’s ambitions to transform the EV industry. Nissan shares jumped 9.6% after the report.

At the same time, Moody’s downgraded Nissan’s credit rating to junk status (Ba1), citing challenges with its restructuring plan, aging product lineup, and global trade risks, including potential U.S. tariffs. While Nissan’s turnaround includes workforce cuts and capacity reductions, free cash flow remains negative, raising concerns about its financial health despite adequate short-term liquidity.

Investment Insight: Tesla’s potential partnership with Nissan could provide a competitive edge in scaling EV production, but Moody’s downgrade underscores significant risks for Nissan. Investors should remain cautious, particularly with automakers facing restructuring and trade uncertainties.

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Asian stocks fell, with Hong Kong’s tech index dropping 3.6%, as geopolitical tensions and US tariff uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Gold hit a record $2,947.23, and the yen strengthened on rising Bank of Japan rate hike bets. In India, unseasonably warm weather threatens wheat yields, potentially tightening global supply. Airbus forecast 7% growth in jet deliveries for 2025 despite supply chain challenges and delays to its A350 freighter program. Meanwhile, Lenovo’s revenue surged 20%, boosted by PC market recovery and AI-driven innovations. Lastly, the yen rallied past 150 per dollar, its strongest since December, amid expectations of BOJ policy tightening.

Asian Stocks Slip, Hong Kong Tech Retreats Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Asian equities slid Thursday, with a regional index falling 0.6%, as geopolitical concerns dampened risk appetite. Hong Kong’s tech benchmark dropped as much as 3.6% after recent highs, and US futures pointed lower. Gold surged to a record $2,947.23 an ounce, while the yen strengthened on speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike. US President Donald Trump’s intensified pressure on Ukraine to settle with Russia, coupled with potential new tariffs on lumber, added to market jitters. Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba and Meituan, which had seen a remarkable bull run recently, also retreated as investors grew cautious.

Investment Insight: Heightened geopolitical uncertainty is driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold, now at record levels, while pressuring tech-heavy Asian markets. Investors should monitor developments in US-China trade talks and the BOJ’s policy stance for near-term market direction.

India’s Wheat Crop Faces Risks from Warm Weather and Low Rainfall

India’s wheat harvest is under threat as unusually warm and dry weather persists, with rainfall in key northern regions down 80% since January. Meteorologists predict continued unfavorable conditions, which could reduce yields by more than 20%. As domestic stockpiles hover near 16-year lows, the government may consider cutting the current 40% import duty to stabilize food prices. Despite record production last year, the crop’s outlook is uncertain, with harvesting set to begin in March.

Investment Insight: Adverse weather conditions could tighten India’s wheat supply, potentially lifting global wheat prices. Investors in agricultural commodities should watch for policy shifts on import duties and assess the impact on international grain markets.

Airbus Projects 7% Growth in Jet Deliveries, Flags Production Challenges

Airbus expects to deliver 820 aircraft in 2025, up 7% from last year, despite ongoing supply chain issues and delays to its A350 freighter program, now pushed to 2027. The company reported €5.35 billion in adjusted operating income for 2024, down 8%, reflecting production pressures and €300 million in new charges for its Space business. Airbus is integrating Spirit AeroSystems’ factories to streamline operations, with neutral income impact but mid-triple-digit cash flow costs. The A400M military transport program remains under pressure due to slow orders and defense spending cuts. Airbus declared a €2 dividend per share, up 11%, alongside a €1 special dividend.

Investment Insight: Airbus’ steady jet delivery growth and dividend hikes signal resilience amid supply chain headwinds. However, defense and space project challenges may weigh on long-term margins. Investors should monitor defense spending trends and Spirit integration progress.

Preview

Oil prices held steady as OPEC+ considers delaying April supply increases, while geopolitical tensions and tighter Russian oil price caps cloud the outlook. President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals could disrupt global supply chains, hitting Asian nations and European automakers hardest. Intel surged 16% on reports of a potential breakup, driving a 38.5% weekly gain, though regulatory hurdles loom. Super Micro Computer, up 83% YTD, leads the S&P 500 amid AI-driven optimism tied to Nvidia’s next-gen GPUs, despite accounting challenges last year. Meanwhile, Mitsui is investing $5.3 billion in a Rio Tinto-led Australian iron ore project, aiming to meet demand for greener steelmaking materials.

Oil Steadies Amid OPEC+ Supply Talks and Russian Uncertainty

Oil prices remained steady after recent gains, with Brent crude hovering near $76 a barrel and WTI around $72. OPEC+ is reportedly considering postponing planned supply increases set for April, marking the fourth potential delay. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist: G7 nations are weighing tighter oil price caps on Russian exports, and repairs on a key Russian pumping station could cut Kazakh oil flows to the Black Sea by 30%. Talks in Riyadh between US and Russian officials on Ukraine excluded President Zelenskiy, raising European concerns. Analysts suggest non-OPEC production and OPEC+ pressure will shape the market’s trajectory.

Investment Insight: Oil prices are stabilizing, but supply-side uncertainties from OPEC+ and geopolitical risks underscore the importance of diversified energy investments. Watch for policy shifts and production changes impacting long-term crude trends.

Trump Eyes 25% Tariffs on Autos, Semiconductors, and Drugs

President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, potentially starting April 2. This move significantly broadens his trade war strategy beyond China, targeting industries critical to global supply chains. The auto sector faces sweeping impacts, with imported vehicles comprising nearly half of US sales. Asian nations, including South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia, as well as European automakers, could be hit hardest. The tariffs are expected to reshape trade flows, increase consumer prices, and spark retaliatory measures from affected nations. Markets remain cautious amid the uncertainty.

Investment Insight: Heightened trade tensions could disrupt global supply chains, particularly in autos and semiconductors. Investors should monitor tariff negotiations and consider diversifying exposure to industries vulnerable to US trade policy shifts.

Intel Soars on Breakup Speculation Amid Acquisition Rumors

Intel (INTC) stock surged 16% Tuesday, its largest single-day gain since 2020, following reports of potential takeover interest from Broadcom (AVGO) and TSMC (TSM). Broadcom is reportedly eyeing Intel’s product business, while TSMC may acquire stakes in its manufacturing division. These developments come as analysts increasingly advocate for Intel to split its foundry and product units to unlock value. Intel shares have climbed 38.5% in the past five days, marking the biggest weekly gain in its history. However, regulatory challenges and constraints tied to US CHIPS Act funding could complicate any deal.

Investment Insight: Intel’s potential breakup could unlock shareholder value, but regulatory and operational hurdles remain significant. Investors should monitor developments while assessing exposure to the semiconductor sector amid consolidation trends.

Super Micro Computer Leads S&P 500 With 83% YTD Gain Amid AI Optimism

Super Micro Computer surged 16% on Tuesday, extending its one-week gain to 45% and its YTD climb to 83%, making it the top-performing S&P 500 stock in 2025. The rally follows a bullish fiscal 2026 outlook despite missed earnings estimates. Investor enthusiasm centers on Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs, a key revenue driver for Super Micro’s AI-focused server racks. The stock is rebounding from an 80% drop last year after resolving accounting issues, with analysts split on whether its optimistic guidance will materialize.

Investment Insight: AI-driven demand is fueling Super Micro’s resurgence, but its lofty projections may face supply chain and market risks. Investors should review AI-related exposure and remain cautious of speculative growth expectations.