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Tesla shares slide over 6% after a Q4 delivery miss and first annual sales decline

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell over 6% after reporting Q4 2024 deliveries of 495,930 vehicles, missing analysts’ estimates of 510,400. For the year, Tesla delivered 1.78 million vehicles, slightly below 2023’s 1.8 million — the automaker’s first-ever year-over-year sales decline. Analysts attribute the miss to increasing competition, global economic pressures, and Tesla’s focus on new model preparations. Meanwhile, Chinese rival BYD reported 4.3 million global deliveries, with 1.76 million pure EVs, closing in on Tesla.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives remains optimistic, projecting 20%-30% delivery growth in 2025, fueled by Tesla’s anticipated lower-cost EV, FSD software uptake, and robotaxi innovations.

Investment Insight

Tesla’s delivery miss signals short-term challenges, but long-term growth potential remains. Investors may view current dips as opportunities, banking on new product launches and accelerated delivery targets in 2025.

Market price: Tesla Inc (TSLA): USD 379.28

Yuan’s Rally Risks Undermining China’s Exporters

China’s efforts to stabilize the yuan at 7.3 per dollar have strengthened its exchange rate against key trading partners, including the euro and South Korea’s won, reaching its highest level since October 2022. While this bolsters market stability and regional currencies, it risks weakening Chinese exporters’ competitiveness and undermining recovery efforts amid global economic uncertainty and tariff threats from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Analysts warn that China’s strict currency defense could reduce the effectiveness of monetary easing and lead to future volatility.

Investment Insight

China’s rigid currency strategy may create short-term stability but risks long-term economic drag. Investors should monitor trade policy developments and volatility spikes as potential inflection points for Chinese assets.

South Korea, Hong Kong Lead Asian Stocks Higher Amid Global Weakness

Asian equities rallied on Friday, with South Korea’s benchmark up 2.3% and Hong Kong and Australia also posting gains, bucking the global downtrend that saw U.S. stocks fall for a fifth straight session. Chinese stocks remained subdued after their worst yearly start since 2016, while China’s 10-year bond yield dropped below 1.6% for the first time amid economic concerns. U.S. equity futures rose, signaling a potential rebound, as investors reassess strategies after a volatile end to 2024.

Investment Insight

Asia’s divergence from U.S. market weakness highlights regional opportunities, particularly in South Korea and Hong Kong. Investors should monitor interest rate trends and China’s bond market for broader economic signals.

China Plans Export Curbs on Lithium Tech to Protect Supply Chain Dominance

China is proposing stricter export controls on advanced technologies used in lithium refining and battery material production, aiming to safeguard its dominance in the global battery supply chain amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The curbs target emerging processes like direct lithium extraction and specific compounds crucial for high-performance batteries. While existing projects may remain unaffected, future investments and joint ventures could face tighter scrutiny. This move follows China’s broader strategy of restricting exports of key minerals and technologies tied to high-tech and military applications.

Investment Insight

China’s tightening grip on lithium technology could disrupt global battery supply chains, heightening risks for non-Chinese EV and battery manufacturers. Investors should watch for potential supply bottlenecks and increased costs in the EV market.

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Hong Kong’s IPO market ends 2024 on a high note

Hong Kong’s IPO market closed the year strong, with six firms, including Bloks Group and Beijing Saimo Technology, filing to raise HK$3.3 billion amid eased listing rules and Chinese regulatory support. IPO proceeds nearly doubled to $10 billion, though still below pre-pandemic levels, as firms rushed to list ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, fearing policy shifts. Meanwhile, cocoa led commodities with prices tripling on supply deficits, while steel-making coal and oil struggled due to China’s slowdown. India’s central bank forecasts a 2025 growth rebound, with potential rate cuts boosting consumer-driven sectors, but rising bad loans pose risks. Asian equities ended the year with a quarterly loss, pressured by dollar strength and China’s recovery concerns, though gold and oil showed resilience. Brent crude neared $75 as China’s factory activity expanded, but oversupply fears could weigh on prices in 2025. Investors face a mixed outlook with opportunities in Chinese IPOs, safe-haven assets, and commodities, tempered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Hong Kong’s IPO Market Sees Year-End Surge

Hong Kong’s IPO market ended 2024 with a flurry of filings, as six firms, including Chinese toy maker Bloks Group Ltd. and autonomous vehicle tester Beijing Saimo Technology Co., announced plans to raise HK$3.3 billion ($429 million) by late January. The surge comes as the city eases IPO rules and China’s securities regulator encourages mainland firms to list in Hong Kong to solidify its role as a global financial hub.

Hong Kong’s IPO proceeds nearly doubled in 2024 to $10 billion, still below pre-pandemic averages. The Hang Seng Index gained 18% this year, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index posted a 27% increase, its best performance since 2009. Firms are rushing to list before Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, fearing potential policy volatility under his administration.

Investment Insight

Hong Kong’s improving IPO market, boosted by strong equity performance and relaxed listing rules, offers opportunities for investors seeking exposure to Chinese growth sectors. However, looming geopolitical risks could heighten market volatility.

Cocoa Tops Global Commodities Rally for Second Year Amid Supply Deficit

Cocoa and coffee emerged as the best-performing commodities in 2024, driven by persistent supply deficits caused by adverse weather in key regions like West Africa and Brazil. Cocoa prices soared nearly threefold to a record $12,931 per metric ton, while coffee hit its highest levels in over 40 years. Conversely, steel-making coal and crude oil faced significant pressure, with China’s economic slowdown and property crisis dampening demand.

Looking ahead to 2025, analysts expect heightened global trade tensions, a strong dollar, and U.S. policy shifts under Donald Trump to shape the commodities market. While gold and silver remain strong safe-haven bets, oil and iron ore could struggle as supply outpaces demand, despite OPEC+ production cuts and Chinese stimulus measures.

Investment Insight

Cocoa’s meteoric rise underscores the price risks tied to geographically concentrated production. Meanwhile, gold’s safe-haven appeal and supply constraints in metals like copper position them as potential winners in 2025, while oil and bulk metals could face continued headwinds.

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Asian stocks retreated as US equities declined

With year-end caution and thin trading volumes weighing on markets, Asian stocks pulled back. Oil prices held steady but face risks in 2025 from oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty, while gold surged 27% this year, supported by monetary easing and safe-haven demand. Japan’s factory activity contracted at a slower pace in December, hinting at stabilization despite weak orders and rising input costs. Meanwhile, Ibiden, a key Nvidia supplier, plans to accelerate capacity expansion amid surging AI chip demand, signaling continued growth in the semiconductor sector. Investors should remain cautious in volatile markets, focus on diversification, and monitor policy shifts and demand trends heading into 2025.

Asian Stocks Drop Amid US Losses and Year-End Caution

Asian stocks slipped as US equities declined on Friday, and investors trimmed positions ahead of year-end. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell after a five-day rally, with shares in Japan and Australia dropping amid thin trading volumes. Treasury yields hovered near multi-month highs, adding pressure to equities, while the Australian dollar strengthened on higher iron ore prices. Despite Monday’s dip, Asian markets are set to close 2024 with a 7.5% gain, buoyed by easing monetary policies and AI-driven tech rallies.

Investment Insight

Year-end caution and thin trading volumes amplify stock market volatility. Investors should remain cautious with major decisions during this period, particularly in overvalued sectors like tech.

Oil Holds Steady as Traders Eye 2025 Risks

Oil prices remained stable in thin year-end trading, with West Texas Intermediate hovering near $71 a barrel and Brent above $74. Despite a 1.6% gain last week, crude is set to end 2024 with annual losses, constrained by ample supply and demand uncertainties. Key risks for 2025 include oversupply, OPEC+ production challenges, and policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump, who has hinted at tariffs on major oil producers and plans to intensify pressure on Iran. Concerns over Chinese demand and ongoing Middle East tensions also weigh on the market.

Investment Insight

Oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty may cap oil price growth in 2025. Investors should monitor policy shifts and demand signals closely before making energy sector bets. Volatility could provide opportunities for short-term trading, but long-term positions may carry elevated risk. Diversifying exposure within the energy sector, including renewable energy plays, could balance potential downside.

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Asian stocks climbed in quiet pre-holiday trading, lifted by a US tech rally and surging Honda shares

Honda shares jumped 14% on a $7 billion buyback plan. Taiwan Semiconductor hit record highs, but broader regional sentiment remains fragile as the MSCI Asia Index heads for its first quarterly loss since 2023 amid China’s weak recovery and global monetary concerns. Japan’s yen strengthened slightly on warnings against speculative moves, though risks of further depreciation linger ahead of key Bank of Japan events. In China, a stimulus-driven property stock rally faces challenges in 2025, with analysts forecasting declining sales and home prices due to persistent structural issues. Meanwhile, US chip stocks soared on AI optimism, with Broadcom and AMD leading gains, though elevated valuations warrant caution. Spotify also hit record highs, driven by strategic overhauls, cost-cutting, and improved margins, marking its first year of profitability. Investors remain focused on macro risks, earnings diversification, and selective opportunities in tech, FX, and property markets.

Asian Stocks Rise Amid US Tech Rally; Honda Soars on Buyback Plans

Asian markets gained in subdued pre-holiday trading, buoyed by a strong rally in US tech stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hit record highs, while Honda surged 14% after announcing a $7 billion share buyback. However, sentiment in Asia remains fragile, with the MSCI Asia Index heading for its first quarterly loss since 2023, driven by China’s weak recovery and global monetary concerns. Meanwhile, Japan’s yen strengthened slightly as officials warned of forex volatility, though risks of further depreciation remain.

Investment Insight

Tech continues to dominate market gains, but a broader earnings rally in 2025 could diversify opportunities. Honda’s buyback highlights potential value in underperforming sectors. Stay cautious on Asia as macro uncertainties persist.

Japan Warns Against Yen Speculation as Liquidity Thins

Japan reiterated its warnings against speculative yen movements as the currency remains under pressure ahead of key Bank of Japan (BOJ) events this week. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato signaled potential intervention, briefly strengthening the yen to 157.06 against the dollar. Analysts expect heightened tension if the yen nears 160, with low holiday market liquidity making intervention more impactful. The BOJ Governor’s speech on Wednesday and Friday’s policy meeting summary may influence further yen moves, especially as markets anticipate delayed rate hikes.

Investment Insight

The yen’s weakness reflects Japan’s prolonged ultra-easy monetary policy relative to US rates. Investors should monitor BOJ signals closely—any intervention or hawkish pivot could trigger sharp currency moves, presenting risks and opportunities in FX markets.

China’s Property Stock Rally Faces Tough 2025 Amid Weak Fundamentals

China’s property sector remains mired in a prolonged slump, with home prices and sales expected to decline further in 2025, despite a recent stimulus-fueled stock rally. Analysts forecast a 12% drop in sales and a single-digit decline in home prices next year. While state-owned developers like China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. are seen as better positioned, the broader sector continues to struggle with unfinished projects, default risks, and lackluster buyer confidence. Beijing’s piecemeal policy support has offered little lasting relief, raising concerns about the sustainability of any rebound.

Investment Insight

Focus on state-backed developers as consolidation accelerates and market share shifts. However, structural challenges and weak fundamentals suggest limited upside in the broader property market. Expect only tactical opportunities in a sector still under pressure.