Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Dec 30, 2024
Date Issued – 30th December 2024
Preview
Asian stocks retreated as US equities declined
With year-end caution and thin trading volumes weighing on markets, Asian stocks pulled back. Oil prices held steady but face risks in 2025 from oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty, while gold surged 27% this year, supported by monetary easing and safe-haven demand. Japan’s factory activity contracted at a slower pace in December, hinting at stabilization despite weak orders and rising input costs. Meanwhile, Ibiden, a key Nvidia supplier, plans to accelerate capacity expansion amid surging AI chip demand, signaling continued growth in the semiconductor sector. Investors should remain cautious in volatile markets, focus on diversification, and monitor policy shifts and demand trends heading into 2025.
Asian Stocks Drop Amid US Losses and Year-End Caution
Asian stocks slipped as US equities declined on Friday, and investors trimmed positions ahead of year-end. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell after a five-day rally, with shares in Japan and Australia dropping amid thin trading volumes. Treasury yields hovered near multi-month highs, adding pressure to equities, while the Australian dollar strengthened on higher iron ore prices. Despite Monday’s dip, Asian markets are set to close 2024 with a 7.5% gain, buoyed by easing monetary policies and AI-driven tech rallies.
Investment Insight
Year-end caution and thin trading volumes amplify stock market volatility. Investors should remain cautious with major decisions during this period, particularly in overvalued sectors like tech.
Oil Holds Steady as Traders Eye 2025 Risks
Oil prices remained stable in thin year-end trading, with West Texas Intermediate hovering near $71 a barrel and Brent above $74. Despite a 1.6% gain last week, crude is set to end 2024 with annual losses, constrained by ample supply and demand uncertainties. Key risks for 2025 include oversupply, OPEC+ production challenges, and policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump, who has hinted at tariffs on major oil producers and plans to intensify pressure on Iran. Concerns over Chinese demand and ongoing Middle East tensions also weigh on the market.
Investment Insight
Oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty may cap oil price growth in 2025. Investors should monitor policy shifts and demand signals closely before making energy sector bets. Volatility could provide opportunities for short-term trading, but long-term positions may carry elevated risk. Diversifying exposure within the energy sector, including renewable energy plays, could balance potential downside.
Gold Shines with 27% Gain in a Mixed Year for Metals
Gold is set for a standout 27% annual gain in 2024, driven by US monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and record central bank purchases. This surge defied traditional headwinds like a stronger US dollar and rising real Treasury yields, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. Meanwhile, base metals had a mixed year, with the LMEX Index posting modest gains, while iron ore dropped 28% amid China’s construction slowdown. Lithium extended its slump due to a global supply glut and challenges in the EV sector.
Investment Insight
Gold’s resilience in 2024 highlights its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors should consider gold as a hedge going into 2025, particularly if US monetary policy remains uncertain. Base metals may face continued pressure from weak Chinese demand, while oversupply in lithium could persist, challenging bullish positions.
Ibiden Plans Faster Expansion to Meet Soaring AI Chip Demand
Ibiden Co., a key supplier of advanced chip substrates for Nvidia’s AI semiconductors, is considering accelerating production capacity expansion to meet surging demand. The Japanese company’s new factory in Gifu, Japan, is set to reach partial production in late 2025, but clients, including Nvidia, Intel, and AMD, are already urging further investments. AI substrates now account for over 15% of Ibiden’s revenue, a figure expected to grow as Nvidia scales production of its next-generation Blackwell chips. Despite competition from Taiwanese rivals, analysts believe Ibiden’s dominance in high-quality substrate manufacturing is secure.
Investment Insight
The AI boom is driving strong demand for semiconductor components, positioning suppliers like Ibiden as key beneficiaries. Investors should watch for capacity expansion updates, as delays could hinder growth. Diversification beyond Intel and leveraging AI trends could strengthen Ibiden’s long-term outlook.
Market price: Ibiden Co Ltd. (TYO: 4062): USD JPY 4,766
Japan’s Factory Activity Shrinks at Slower Pace in December
Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in December, but the pace of decline slowed, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.6 from November’s 49.0. Softer reductions in production and new orders drove the improvement, though new orders continued their 19-month contraction due to weak domestic and overseas demand, particularly in the semiconductor market. Employment rebounded to its highest level since April, while input costs surged on higher raw material prices, labour costs, and a weak yen. Despite challenges, manufacturers remained optimistic, citing new product launches and future demand growth.
Investment Insight
Japan’s manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, but weak demand and rising costs remain headwinds. Investors should monitor PMI trends and input price pressures, as sustained recovery depends on global demand revival and cost management. Export-driven sectors may face prolonged challenges tied to semiconductor weakness.
Conclusion
As 2024 wraps up, markets remain shaped by year-end caution, geopolitical uncertainties, and sector-specific challenges. Gold’s standout performance underscores its resilience as a safe-haven asset, while oil and base metals face pressure from oversupply and weak demand. The AI boom continues to drive growth opportunities for key suppliers like Ibiden, while Japan’s manufacturing sector shows tentative signs of stabilization. Looking ahead to 2025, investors should prepare for volatility, closely watch policy changes, and focus on diversified strategies to navigate risks and opportunities across sectors. Patience and careful positioning will be key in the evolving global market landscape.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- December 31, 2024: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
- January 1, 2025: US manufacturing PMI, Jobless claims
- January 2, 2025: US ISM manufacturing
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Dec 24, 2024
Date Issued – 24th December 2024
Preview
Asian stocks climbed in quiet pre-holiday trading, lifted by a US tech rally and surging Honda shares
Honda shares jumped 14% on a $7 billion buyback plan. Taiwan Semiconductor hit record highs, but broader regional sentiment remains fragile as the MSCI Asia Index heads for its first quarterly loss since 2023 amid China’s weak recovery and global monetary concerns. Japan’s yen strengthened slightly on warnings against speculative moves, though risks of further depreciation linger ahead of key Bank of Japan events. In China, a stimulus-driven property stock rally faces challenges in 2025, with analysts forecasting declining sales and home prices due to persistent structural issues. Meanwhile, US chip stocks soared on AI optimism, with Broadcom and AMD leading gains, though elevated valuations warrant caution. Spotify also hit record highs, driven by strategic overhauls, cost-cutting, and improved margins, marking its first year of profitability. Investors remain focused on macro risks, earnings diversification, and selective opportunities in tech, FX, and property markets.
Asian Stocks Rise Amid US Tech Rally; Honda Soars on Buyback Plans
Asian markets gained in subdued pre-holiday trading, buoyed by a strong rally in US tech stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hit record highs, while Honda surged 14% after announcing a $7 billion share buyback. However, sentiment in Asia remains fragile, with the MSCI Asia Index heading for its first quarterly loss since 2023, driven by China’s weak recovery and global monetary concerns. Meanwhile, Japan’s yen strengthened slightly as officials warned of forex volatility, though risks of further depreciation remain.
Investment Insight
Tech continues to dominate market gains, but a broader earnings rally in 2025 could diversify opportunities. Honda’s buyback highlights potential value in underperforming sectors. Stay cautious on Asia as macro uncertainties persist.
Japan Warns Against Yen Speculation as Liquidity Thins
Japan reiterated its warnings against speculative yen movements as the currency remains under pressure ahead of key Bank of Japan (BOJ) events this week. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato signaled potential intervention, briefly strengthening the yen to 157.06 against the dollar. Analysts expect heightened tension if the yen nears 160, with low holiday market liquidity making intervention more impactful. The BOJ Governor’s speech on Wednesday and Friday’s policy meeting summary may influence further yen moves, especially as markets anticipate delayed rate hikes.
Investment Insight
The yen’s weakness reflects Japan’s prolonged ultra-easy monetary policy relative to US rates. Investors should monitor BOJ signals closely—any intervention or hawkish pivot could trigger sharp currency moves, presenting risks and opportunities in FX markets.
China’s Property Stock Rally Faces Tough 2025 Amid Weak Fundamentals
China’s property sector remains mired in a prolonged slump, with home prices and sales expected to decline further in 2025, despite a recent stimulus-fueled stock rally. Analysts forecast a 12% drop in sales and a single-digit decline in home prices next year. While state-owned developers like China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. are seen as better positioned, the broader sector continues to struggle with unfinished projects, default risks, and lackluster buyer confidence. Beijing’s piecemeal policy support has offered little lasting relief, raising concerns about the sustainability of any rebound.
Investment Insight
Focus on state-backed developers as consolidation accelerates and market share shifts. However, structural challenges and weak fundamentals suggest limited upside in the broader property market. Expect only tactical opportunities in a sector still under pressure.
Broadcom and AMD Lead Chip Rally on AI Growth Optimism
Chip stocks surged Monday, with Broadcom (+5.5%) and AMD (+4.5%) leading gains as analysts issued bullish calls driven by AI demand. UBS raised Broadcom’s price target to $270, citing significant AI revenue growth projections for 2026 and 2027. Rosenblatt named AMD a “top pick” for early 2025, highlighting its growing market share and AI-related potential. Other chipmakers, including Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Intel, also posted gains, pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 3%.
Investment Insight
AI demand remains a key driver for chipmakers, making industry leaders like Broadcom and AMD attractive picks. However, recent rallies suggest valuations may already reflect significant optimism. Look for near-term opportunities but exercise caution on overheated stocks.
Market price: Broadcom Inc (AVGO): USD 232.35
Spotify Hits Record Highs After Strategic Overhaul and Profitability Breakthrough
Spotify’s stock has soared to nearly $500, a sixfold increase from its 2022 low of under $80. The turnaround stems from aggressive cost-cutting, broad price hikes, and a shift in strategy that reduced podcast spending while focusing on bundles combining music, podcasts, and audiobooks. Layoffs, restructuring, and operational efficiency drove gross margins from 25% in 2022 to 31.1% in the latest quarter, with full-year profitability on track for the first time. Analysts remain bullish, with a median price target of $486.
Investment Insight
Spotify’s resurgence highlights the value of disciplined cost management and pricing power. While growth opportunities in audiobooks and bundles remain promising, sustained profitability will be key to justifying its lofty valuation.
Market price: Spotify Technology SA (SPOT): USD 456.29
Conclusion
Asian markets showed mixed signals as strong performances in tech and individual stocks like Honda contrasted with broader fragility tied to China’s slowdown and ongoing macroeconomic concerns. Japan’s yen volatility and the BOJ’s upcoming decisions add further uncertainty, while China’s property sector struggles to sustain momentum despite stimulus efforts. In contrast, US chipmakers and Spotify highlighted the potential of AI growth and strategic overhauls, though lofty valuations urge caution. Investors should remain selective, focusing on opportunities in resilient sectors like tech and state-backed developers while closely monitoring global monetary trends and China’s structural challenges heading into 2025.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- December 26th, 2024: US initial jobless claims
- December 27, 2024: Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, retail sales
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $400 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.