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Global markets waver as trade tensions and tariff uncertainties weigh on sentiment

Stocks retreated after mixed signals from the US-China trade dispute, while China’s tightened export controls on critical minerals disrupted supply chains and pushed prices higher. Boeing faces a $1 billion revenue gap as Chinese tariffs block aircraft deliveries, but strong Q1 results highlight its resilience. Japanese investors returned to overseas bonds after a six-week selloff, while foreign demand for Japanese assets surged amid expectations of delayed BOJ rate hikes. Unilever exceeded sales forecasts with premium demand and price hikes, reaffirming its outlook despite macroeconomic pressures.

Stocks Stall Amid Trade Tariff Uncertainty

Global equities pared recent gains on Thursday as mixed signals from the US administration on China tariffs dampened risk appetite. European stocks fell, with US futures and Asian markets retreating after a five-day rally. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of a protracted resolution to the US-China trade dispute, sending the dollar lower while boosting demand for safe havens like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold.

Corporate earnings added to the volatility, with Unilever rising on solid sales but BNP Paribas slipping on weaker profits. Investors remained cautious amid headline-driven market swings, as President Trump hinted at potential tariff adjustments in the coming weeks but offered no clarity on broader trade policy.

Investment Insight

With US equities facing valuation pressures and geopolitical risks, investors should consider diversifying globally. Opportunities in Chinese, Indian, and European markets may offer a hedge against potential corrections in US stocks and the dollar. Strategic portfolio rebalancing is critical as the era of US market dominance shows signs of waning.

China Tightens Grip on Mineral Exports, Disrupting Global Supply

China’s control over critical minerals has intensified with its expanded export control list, now covering 16 minerals vital for clean energy, defense, and semiconductors. Recent additions, including seven rare earths, aim to counter U.S. tariffs, creating supply disruptions and driving up prices.

Under China’s export licensing system, exporters must provide detailed documentation, including sensitive end-user data, while importers face strict non-transfer commitments. License approvals, involving multiple agencies, can take months, particularly for U.S. clients amid ongoing trade tensions. These measures highlight Beijing’s leverage over global supply chains and its strategic use of export controls to safeguard national interests.

Investment Insight

China’s export restrictions underscore the strategic importance of diversifying supply chains for critical minerals. Investors should monitor companies outside China that mine or refine rare earths and other essential materials, as they could benefit from increased demand and rising prices. Enhanced geopolitical risks also favor investment in technologies and industries focused on resource independence and recycling.

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Markets rebounded sharply Tuesday as easing trade tensions and a softer tone from President Trump toward Fed Chair Jerome Powell calmed investor nerves, driving the Dow up over 1,000 points and lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq more than 2.5%.

Gold retreated from record highs, reflecting reduced haven demand, while Tesla rallied over 5% in after-hours trading despite a Q1 miss, as Elon Musk pledged to refocus on the company. Meanwhile, short interest in SK Hynix hit a record, with investors increasingly wary of AI-linked chipmakers amid trade uncertainty and tightening U.S. tech policy. Despite improved sentiment, investors remain cautious, with political risk and macro headwinds continuing to shape market direction.

Market Rebounds Sharply on Trade Hopes Amid Political Volatility

U.S. equities staged a powerful rally Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging over 1,000 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. The rebound followed comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting potential deescalation in trade tensions with China, despite cautioning that negotiations remain complex. Investor sentiment also improved on signs of progress in U.S.-India trade talks. The gains reversed sharp losses from the prior session, which were driven by renewed tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. After the bell, Tesla reported weaker-than-expected earnings and withheld forward guidance, citing trade uncertainty and brand challenges tied to Musk’s political role.

Investment Insight

The market’s swift rebound highlights investors’ sensitivity to trade rhetoric and the potential for volatility tied to political developments. While improved diplomatic signals offer short-term relief, the absence of concrete policy resolution suggests continued risk. Investors should remain defensively positioned, favoring quality assets with low trade exposure as the geopolitical landscape continues to shape market direction.

Tesla Shares Climb Despite Q1 Miss as Musk Vows Refocus on Company

Tesla stock rose more than 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday after CEO Elon Musk pledged to reduce his time spent at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and reallocate efforts toward the company. This came despite Tesla reporting Q1 results that missed both revenue and earnings expectations, citing $19.34 billion in revenue versus the $21.43 billion consensus and adjusted EPS of $0.27 against estimates of $0.44. Musk reiterated plans to launch affordable EVs in early 2025 and begin robotaxi testing in Austin by June. Investors appeared to welcome Musk’s renewed focus, even as Tesla warned that ongoing trade uncertainty and political factors are weighing on global demand and its brand image.

Investment Insight

Tesla’s post-earnings rally underscores investor appetite for leadership stability amid operational headwinds. While Q1 results reveal softening demand and mounting competition, particularly from BYD, Musk’s commitment to refocus on Tesla may ease concerns over strategic drift. However, with guidance withdrawn and trade policy in flux, investors should treat the stock’s rebound cautiously and monitor delivery trends and pricing power closely heading into midyear.

Market Price

Tesla Inc. (TSLA): USD 237.97

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US stock futures rebounded Tuesday after Monday’s selloff, driven by Federal Reserve criticism and economic concerns. Gold hit a record $3,500 as haven demand surged, while trade tensions and upcoming earnings from Tesla and Alphabet kept markets cautious. Ericsson will localize antenna production in India to meet soaring 5G demand, offsetting slowing US orders. Japan is resisting US pressure to strengthen the yen, with limited room for intervention, as trade negotiations loom. China’s trade flows remained strong in April despite tariffs, though early signs of strain are emerging in rail cargo and e-commerce pricing. Meanwhile, Roche announced a $50 billion US investment, creating 12,000 jobs, as drugmakers brace for potential pharmaceutical tariffs.

Futures Rebound as Market Eyes Fed and Trade Tensions

US stock futures showed resilience on Tuesday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts gaining 1% following Monday’s sharp selloff. The decline was fueled by President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve and concerns over rate policy and economic growth. While risk appetite saw a tentative recovery, haven assets like gold surged to a record $3,500 an ounce, and the yen strengthened to its highest level since September. Global markets remain jittery as trade tensions escalate, with investors scrutinizing US-China tariff talks and upcoming earnings from Tesla and Alphabet. Meanwhile, the dollar’s haven appeal faltered, weighed down by uncertainty over Fed leadership and rate cuts.

Investment Insight: Persistent trade tensions and uncertainty over Fed independence are reshaping market dynamics, with haven assets like gold and the yen gaining ground. Investors should remain cautious, as volatility may persist amid mixed signals from global markets. Diversifying into non-correlated assets and monitoring geopolitical developments will be key to navigating this turbulent environment.

Ericsson Expands Indian Manufacturing Amid Surging 5G Demand

Ericsson announced plans to localize all telecom antenna production for the Indian market by June, capitalizing on soaring demand from Bharti Airtel and Jio as they scale up 5G services. This expansion, which builds on Ericsson’s decades-long presence in India since 1994, offsets a slowdown in US orders, its largest market. The Swedish telecom giant also aims to export antennas globally after fulfilling domestic needs, leveraging India’s growing role as a manufacturing hub alongside its facilities in Mexico, Romania, and China.

Investment Insight: Ericsson’s strategic shift to localize production in India underscores the region’s critical role in the global 5G supply chain. As 5G adoption accelerates, investors should monitor telecom infrastructure providers with strong exposure to high-growth markets like India, where increasing demand could drive revenue diversification and long-term upside.

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Global markets opened the week under pressure as political risk in the US rattled investor confidence—President Trump’s attacks on the Fed sent the dollar sliding and lifted gold to record highs. Meanwhile, emerging market local bonds surged ahead of their dollar peers, buoyed by expectations of rate cuts and a weaker greenback. Oil extended losses, with Brent dipping below $67, as demand fears and easing geopolitical tensions—especially US-Iran nuclear talks—undermined sentiment. In Asia, LG Energy Solution exited an $8.45 billion Indonesian EV battery project, raising concerns about the region’s investment climate. Separately, South Korea is edging closer to MSCI developed market status after lifting its short-selling ban, a move that could attract index-driven inflows if reclassification proceeds.

Dollar Slides, Futures Fall as Trump Targets Fed Independence

US stock futures and the dollar fell sharply after President Donald Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve and hinted at the potential removal of Chair Jerome Powell, fueling investor anxiety over the central bank’s independence. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.9%, extending last week’s losses, as all major currencies gained against the greenback—led by the euro and Swiss franc. Gold surged to an all-time high, underscoring demand for safe havens amid rising political risk. Treasuries sold off across longer maturities, steepening the yield curve, while Japanese and European bonds attracted fresh inflows. Equity markets in Asia declined, with Japan’s Nikkei falling over 1%, as concerns mounted over the politicization of US monetary policy and its knock-on effects on global asset allocation.

Investment Insight: Investor confidence in US assets is wavering as political interference in Fed policy stokes fears of long-term instability. With the dollar under pressure and global diversification accelerating, investors should reassess exposure to US sovereign debt and consider reallocating toward non-dollar safe havens such as gold, high-grade European bonds, and Japanese government securities. Elevated volatility around US policy decisions may continue to drive defensive positioning in the near term.

Emerging Markets Gain Favor as Dollar Weakens, Rate Cuts Loom

Emerging market local-currency bonds are outperforming their dollar-denominated counterparts in a rare shift, as investors respond to a weakening US dollar, rising recession risks, and increasing expectations for rate cuts in developing economies. The Bloomberg index for EM local debt has returned 3.2% year-to-date, compared with just 0.9% for EM dollar bonds, despite offering lower yields—averaging 4.03% versus 7.1%. A steep drop in oil prices and US trade tensions have cooled inflationary pressures, giving EM central banks room to ease policy. Meanwhile, volatility in US Treasuries and declining demand for dollar assets are driving capital flows toward local-currency instruments. Dollar bond issuance in EMs (ex-China) has fallen 36% year-over-year in April, underscoring the shift in investor appetite.

Investment Insight: With the dollar under sustained pressure and EM central banks pivoting toward easing, local-currency bonds offer a compelling risk-reward profile. Investors should consider increasing exposure to EM local-rate markets, particularly in economies with stable inflation dynamics and credible monetary frameworks. As US policy volatility elevates term premiums and threatens dollar assets’ haven status, diversified fixed-income strategies anchored in select EM currencies could provide both yield pickup and portfolio resilience.

Oil Slumps as Demand Fears and Geopolitical Easing Weigh on Prices

Crude prices opened the week lower, with Brent falling below $67 and WTI nearing $64, as bearish signals swept through the energy market. Weaker global demand expectations—driven by escalating US-led trade tensions and a potential global economic slowdown—continue to pressure prices. Talks between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program added to the downside, raising prospects of increased Iranian crude supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s faster-than-expected return of output has revived oversupply concerns. A return to contango in portions of the futures curve and a broadly risk-off market tone further compounded the retreat. Analysts warn that sentiment remains fragile, with macro, fundamental, and geopolitical indicators all pointing lower.

Investment Insight: Energy investors should brace for continued volatility as bearish fundamentals, trade-driven demand uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical dynamics converge. Hedging exposure to oil-sensitive assets and reevaluating overweight positions in energy may be prudent until demand signals stabilize. The evolving US-Iran negotiations and OPEC+ supply trajectory will remain key catalysts. In the near term, defensive commodity strategies and exposure to sectors less reliant on global trade may offer relative resilience.

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Asian Stocks Rise Amid Trade Optimism; Yen Weakens

Asian stocks rose on optimism around US-Japan trade talks, while the yen weakened as currency issues were left off the table. Gold hit a record $3,357.78 per ounce, fueled by safe-haven demand amid Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s cautious comments and ongoing trade tensions. TSMC reported a 60% profit surge on strong AI chip demand, though shares fell 3.6% on profit-taking. Nvidia, grappling with a $5.5 billion charge from US export curbs on AI chips to China, dropped 6.9%, with investors eyeing key technical levels. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s $500 billion Stargate project is weighing UK investment as global competition for AI infrastructure heats up.

Asian Stocks Rise Amid Trade Optimism; Yen Weakens

Asian equities advanced on optimism surrounding US-Japan trade negotiations, with Japanese shares gaining after President Trump cited “big progress” in talks aimed at averting higher tariffs. The yen weakened as Japan’s negotiator confirmed that currency issues were not discussed, easing investor concerns. Gold hit a record high on safe-haven demand, while US Treasury yields climbed, reflecting a cautious risk-off sentiment. US equity futures edged higher, while European contracts declined, as global markets assess the broader implications of ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea held rates steady, emphasizing stability amidst monetary policy uncertainty in the region.

Investment Insight: The preliminary progress in US-Japan trade talks offers a modest tailwind for Japanese equities and signals a potential roadmap for US trade negotiations with other allies. Investors should monitor developments in US-China discussions, as any further escalation could drive shifts into safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries. A balanced portfolio strategy, incorporating defensive assets alongside equity exposure, may help navigate the unpredictability of trade policy outcomes.

TSMC Q1 Profit Jumps 60% on AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a 60% surge in Q1 net profit to T$361.6 billion ($11.12 billion), surpassing market expectations of T$354.6 billion. The world’s largest contract chipmaker benefited from robust demand for semiconductors powering artificial intelligence applications, with key customers such as Apple and Nvidia driving growth. Despite the strong results, TSMC shares fell 3.6%, reflecting broader market concerns and potential profit-taking following recent gains.

Investment Insight: TSMC’s results highlight the accelerating adoption of AI technologies and the critical role semiconductor manufacturers play in this ecosystem. While the stock’s pullback may signal near-term caution, long-term investors should consider TSMC’s strong market position and its exposure to high-growth industries like AI and advanced computing. Allocating to semiconductor leaders could provide a strategic edge in portfolios seeking growth from technological innovation.

Market price: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TPE: 2330) TWD: 847.00

OpenAI’s $500 Billion Stargate Eyes UK Expansion

Stargate, a $500 billion AI infrastructure project funded by SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle, is considering the UK as a potential site for future investment, according to the Financial Times. The project aims to expand overseas as it builds critical data-center infrastructure to support AI development. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pro-innovation regulatory stance and promises to improve access to electricity for data centers have bolstered the UK’s appeal, alongside Germany and France. Stargate previously committed to investing up to $500 billion in US AI infrastructure over four years, with discussions of a European expansion also gaining momentum.

Investment Insight: The Stargate project underscores the escalating global competition in AI infrastructure. The UK’s regulatory push to become an AI hub may attract significant capital inflows, providing opportunities for investors in tech infrastructure, utilities, and AI-related sectors. As AI adoption accelerates, companies involved in data-center development, energy provisioning, and advanced computing technologies are poised to benefit from this transformative trend.

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Global markets are under pressure as escalating US-China trade tensions weigh on investor sentiment. Nvidia shares fell 6.3% after warning that new US export restrictions on AI chips to China would cost the company $5.5 billion, dragging tech stocks lower. Oil prices extended losses, with Brent crude near $64 per barrel, as oversupply concerns and slowing demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency fuel bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, ASML flagged tariff-driven uncertainty for its 2025–2026 outlook, despite AI demand supporting growth projections. In China, Q1 GDP grew 5.4%, beating expectations, but economists warn that mounting tariffs could slow momentum in the coming quarters. Gold surged to a record $3,275 per ounce, as trade war fears push investors toward safe havens. Markets await further clarity on US tariff policies, with US retail sales data and corporate earnings reports in focus.

US Futures Slide Amid Nvidia Export Restrictions

US stock futures dropped on Wednesday as Nvidia disclosed a $5.5 billion hit tied to new US export restrictions on its H20 AI chips to China, intensifying trade tensions. Nasdaq futures fell 2.2%, leading declines, while S&P 500 and Dow futures slid 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Nvidia shares dropped over 6% in after-hours trading. Meanwhile, gold hit a record $3,275 per ounce, surging as investors sought safety amid escalating US-China trade uncertainty. The broader market remains on edge as shifting tariff policies and slowing retail sales data add to recession fears.

Investment Insight

Heightened geopolitical risks and regulatory headwinds are pressuring growth-heavy sectors like technology, while safe-haven assets such as gold are outperforming. Investors should consider diversifying portfolios with defensive plays, including gold and consumer staples, while approaching high-growth equities with caution as trade tensions and policy unpredictability weigh on sentiment.

China’s Economy Beats Expectations Ahead of Tariff Impact

China’s GDP grew by 5.4% in Q1 2025, outperforming forecasts of 5.1%, as export-driven growth provided resilience in the face of escalating trade tensions with the US. Retail sales rose 5.9% in March, and factory output surged 7.7%, underscoring consumer and industrial strength. However, US tariffs—now exceeding 145% on Chinese imports—are expected to weigh heavily on the economy in coming quarters. Economists have downgraded China’s 2025 growth forecast, with UBS projecting a sharp slowdown to 3.4%. Beijing has signaled readiness to counteract pressures with fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, while continuing to diversify trade relationships beyond the US.

Investment Insight

China’s stronger-than-expected Q1 growth reflects short-term resilience but masks longer-term risks from trade restrictions. As tariffs bite, investors should anticipate increased volatility in export-reliant sectors and closely watch for further policy stimulus. Diversifying exposure to Southeast Asian markets, where China is strengthening trade ties, could offer a hedge against the fallout from the US-China trade war.

UK Inflation Slows, Rate Cuts Expected

UK inflation eased to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February, beating expectations of 2.7%, according to the ONS. The drop was driven by lower petrol and diesel prices, with fuel costs declining by 1.6p per litre compared to March 2024. Food prices remained stable, while clothing saw notable price increases. The cooling inflation strengthens expectations for a Bank of England interest rate cut next month, aimed at supporting households amid growing concerns over Donald Trump’s trade war and its potential to dampen global growth. Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the progress but stressed the need for continued economic vigilance.

Investment Insight

The easing inflation and likely rate cuts signal a more accommodative monetary stance, which could boost consumer spending and equity markets in the near term. Investors should focus on rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and financials, while also considering defensive positions as global trade tensions persist. With risks of a broader economic slowdown, diversification remains essential.

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Global markets rallied as President Trump eased tariff tensions, lifting equities in Europe and Asia, though luxury giant LVMH plunged 7.9% on weak Q1 sales. Palantir shares rose 4.6% after a NATO deal boosted sentiment, while US Treasury yields dropped to 4.35%, offering relief after last week’s historic selloff. In the UK, job vacancies hit pre-Covid lows, with hiring dampened by higher taxes and wages. Amid ongoing volatility, investors are eyeing opportunities in cyclical sectors like autos, defensive assets such as Treasuries and gold, and potential rate cuts from central banks to counter growing economic risks.

Tariff Reprieve Lifts Global Markets

Global stocks rallied as US President Trump hinted at a pause in auto tariffs, easing market fears after earlier trade tensions erased $10 trillion from global equities. Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.6%, led by automakers such as Stellantis, while Japan’s Nikkei surged on strength in Toyota and Honda. Luxury giant LVMH dropped over 7% in Paris following underwhelming sales, dragging down other high-end retailers. US equity futures edged higher, while 10-year Treasury yields stabilized after last week’s record 50-basis-point jump. Oil and gold both climbed, reflecting cautious optimism in markets amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

Investment Insight: The market’s positive reaction to potential tariff relief underscores the importance of policy clarity in a volatile environment. Investors should remain cautious, as shifting US trade stances and slowing global growth continue to pose risks. Opportunities may emerge in cyclical sectors like autos, while defensive assets such as gold and Treasuries remain critical hedges. As volatility persists, disciplined asset allocation will be key.

LVMH Shares Plunge as Q1 Sales Disappoint

LVMH shares tumbled 7.9% after first-quarter revenue fell 3%, missing analysts’ forecasts of 2% growth. Weak U.S. demand for beauty products and cognac, paired with sluggish Chinese sales, signaled deeper troubles for the luxury sector. The disappointing results dragged down shares of peers Kering and Hermès, with analysts warning of a challenging year ahead. RBC cut its forecast for LVMH’s 2025 sales to flat, citing a weaker macroeconomic backdrop and ongoing trade concerns.

Investment Insight: LVMH’s miss reflects mounting headwinds for the luxury sector, including softer consumer spending and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors should monitor demand trends in key markets like the U.S. and China, as well as the impact of trade policies. While luxury stocks may face near-term volatility, long-term opportunities could arise if valuations adjust to reflect slower growth expectations. Diversification across sectors remains prudent amidst heightened macro risks.

Market price: LVMH Moet Hennesy Louis Vuitton SE (MC): EUR 497.3

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Markets enter the week on edge as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions threaten global growth momentum

While a surprise jump in Chinese exports and selective U.S. tariff exemptions buoyed Asian equities, Citigroup’s downgrade of U.S. stocks to neutral highlights growing concern over earnings headwinds. Apple led a tech rally after smartphones and laptops were spared from tariffs, but President Trump’s threat to target semiconductors keeps uncertainty elevated.

Meanwhile, China’s credit surged in March on record government bond issuance, signaling aggressive stimulus to offset external shocks. Yet, the labor market remains fragile, with up to 20 million jobs tied to U.S. exports at risk. Goldman Sachs now sees China’s 2025 GDP growth at just 4%, down from 4.5%.

Investors are watching for fresh policy responses as Beijing seeks to hit its 5% growth target amid fading private-sector hiring and soft consumer sentiment. With volatility rising, equity positioning is shifting toward Japan and away from emerging markets, as global investors seek relative shelter from trade-driven turbulence.

Asian Stocks Climb as Trade Tensions Ease Slightly and Wall Street Rallies

Asian markets kicked off the week with broad gains, buoyed by a modest easing in U.S.-China trade tensions and a strong rebound on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.8%, South Korea’s Kospi added 0.8%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.4%, led by tech stocks and upbeat Chinese export data.

Investors responded positively after President Trump signaled that key electronics like smartphones and laptops would be spared from the latest round of tariffs, even as broader trade risks persist. China’s 12.4% export growth in March added to optimism, though tensions remain elevated following Beijing’s latest retaliatory measures.

U.S. bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.466%, while gold extended its climb to a record $3,249 an ounce. Oil prices edged lower and the dollar weakened, reflecting cautious sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.

Investment Insight

Markets are navigating a fragile reprieve in trade tensions. The tech-led rally underscores selective investor optimism, but sustained volatility in rates and safe-haven flows into gold highlight persistent macro uncertainty. In this environment, investors should prioritize defensiveness and earnings quality, particularly in sectors with global supply chain exposure and pricing resilience.

China’s Credit Growth Surges as Beijing Front-Loads Stimulus Amid Tariff Pressures

China’s credit expansion sharply overshot expectations in March, reflecting a policy-driven push to cushion the economy from intensifying U.S. trade tariffs. Aggregate financing rose 5.89 trillion yuan ($808 billion), up nearly 22% year-on-year and well above the 4.96 trillion yuan consensus estimate.

The surge was led by a record wave of sovereign and local government bond issuance—nearly 1.5 trillion yuan—as Beijing accelerated fiscal spending to buffer against export headwinds. New bank loans also beat forecasts, reaching 3.64 trillion yuan. However, the uptick was concentrated in short-term corporate loans, while long-term business credit remained sluggish, signaling muted private sector confidence.

Meanwhile, money supply indicators showed mixed trends, and housing loan data suggested continued softness in the property market. Though the U.S. exempted some electronics from tariffs, broader uncertainty continues to weigh on investment sentiment.

Investment Insight

The scale and structure of China’s credit expansion point to a top-down stimulus effort rather than organic economic momentum. With long-term corporate borrowing still subdued, investors should be cautious of near-term growth sustainability. Policy-sensitive sectors—particularly infrastructure, banks, and select state-linked SOEs—stand to benefit, but broader equity and credit markets may remain volatile amid unresolved trade risks and fragile consumer demand.

Tariffs Threaten Millions of Chinese Jobs as Economic Pressures Mount

China’s labor market is showing signs of strain as U.S. tariffs—now as high as 145%—threaten to undermine export-driven employment. Goldman Sachs estimates up to 20 million Chinese workers are exposed to U.S.-bound trade, raising the risk of widespread job losses amid weakening corporate hiring.

Despite early 2025 growth holding above 5%, policy stimulus has yet to meaningfully lift employment indicators. Job postings have fallen sharply, and business surveys show declining hiring intentions. While sectors like heavy equipment and AI-linked firms are showing momentum, broader confidence remains fragile.

With exports to the U.S. at risk and consumption still tepid, economists warn that up to 3% of GDP could be jeopardized. The central bank has held off on rate cuts so far, but calls for stronger stimulus are growing louder as Beijing aims to meet its 5% growth target.

Investment Insight

High U.S. tariffs are accelerating structural shifts in China’s economy, exposing vulnerabilities in labor-intensive export sectors. Investors should watch for increased policy intervention aimed at domestic demand and consumption. Sectors tied to infrastructure, automation, and AI innovation may outperform, while export-reliant industries face sustained headwinds.

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Markets remain volatile as key global developments shape investor sentiment. Chinese stocks extended their rally, with stimulus hopes outweighing intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, Zillow’s ban on off-market listings has reignited debates over transparency versus seller flexibility in real estate. Gold surged past $3,200/oz, hitting a record high on safe-haven flows amid dollar weakness, while oil prices are poised for a second weekly decline on trade war concerns and slowing demand forecasts. The euro climbed to a three-year high as investors fled U.S. assets, driven by tariff uncertainties and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Chinese Stocks Rally on Stimulus Hopes Despite Trade Tensions

Chinese equities extended gains for a fourth consecutive session, driven by optimism around potential stimulus measures and signs of flexibility in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose as much as 2.7%, while the onshore CSI 300 Index added 0.4%, outperforming broader Asian markets. Investors are betting on Beijing introducing growth-support measures following key leadership meetings, bolstered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s indications of possible tariff exemptions. However, escalating trade tensions remain a headwind, with Chinese authorities imposing an 84% tariff on U.S. imports in response to Trump’s 145% levy, underscoring the fragility of bilateral relations.

Investment Insight: While short-term gains in Chinese markets reflect optimism over stimulus and trade flexibility, the broader outlook remains precarious amid intensifying U.S.-China tensions. Investors should approach Chinese equities with caution, focusing on sectors likely to benefit from domestic policy support rather than relying on external trade resolutions. Diversification across Asian markets may mitigate risks tied to prolonged volatility in Sino-American relations.

Zillow Bans Off-Market Listings, Fueling Industry Tensions

Zillow announced it will prohibit homes marketed privately to select buyers from appearing on its platform, escalating a long-standing industry debate over “pocket listings.” The move aligns with the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) updated Clear Cooperation Policy, which requires properties to be listed on multiple listing services (MLS) within a day of public marketing. Zillow’s ban, effective next month, will target properties promoted exclusively on platforms like Instagram or single brokerage websites. While Zillow and fair housing advocates argue the policy enhances transparency and maximizes seller returns, some luxury market brokers criticize the restriction, citing reduced seller flexibility. The decision underscores a growing divide between promoting transparency and preserving niche marketing strategies.

Investment Insight: Zillow’s policy shift reflects the increasing push for transparency in real estate transactions, potentially reshaping buyer access and seller strategies. For investors, this could level the playing field by broadening visibility into property markets, especially in competitive urban and luxury sectors. However, the ban may also limit opportunities to access exclusive deals, particularly for institutional investors leveraging off-market listings. Staying informed about evolving listing policies will be crucial for navigating real estate investments going forward.

Gold Breaks $3,200 Barrier Amid Dollar Weakness and Safe-Haven Demand

Gold surged past the $3,200/oz milestone for the first time, climbing 1% to a record $3,219.84 earlier in Friday’s session before retreating slightly. A weakening U.S. dollar, down 0.5% against major currencies, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions spurred the rally, as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets. Gold has gained 5% this week, supported by central bank demand, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts see $3,500 as the next target but caution that the path may be volatile. Other precious metals saw mixed movements, with silver up 0.1% and platinum down 0.3%.

Investment Insight: Gold’s record-breaking rally underscores its resilience as a hedge against currency risk and global instability. For investors, the metal remains a key portfolio diversifier amid heightened trade tensions, a falling dollar, and dovish monetary policies. While further upside is likely, tactical allocations to gold-backed ETFs or mining stocks can help mitigate potential volatility. Monitor central bank moves and inflation data closely, as they will play a pivotal role in shaping gold’s trajectory.

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Markets staged a dramatic rebound this week as President Trump paused broad-based tariffs, fueling a 10% surge in the S&P 500—its biggest one-day gain since 2008—though fragility in bonds and policy uncertainty linger. Fast Retailing raised its profit outlook after a 33% jump in Q2 earnings, but tariff risks cloud the outlook. March CPI data is expected to show inflation easing to 2.5%, possibly the last such print before new trade measures reverse the trend. TSMC’s Q1 revenue soared 42%, driven by AI demand, outpacing forecasts despite geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, Chinese and Hong Kong equities climbed on stimulus hopes, even as Sino-U.S. tensions escalated with tit-for-tat tariffs.

Markets Surge After Tariff Reversal, But Fragility Remains

After a week of historic volatility, U.S. equities staged a dramatic comeback as President Trump’s partial rollback of sweeping new tariffs ignited a relief rally. The S&P 500 surged nearly 10% on Wednesday—its biggest one-day gain since 2008—following a sharp downturn that had pushed it to the brink of a bear market. The Cboe Volatility Index spiked to pandemic-era highs earlier in the week, reflecting deep investor unease. The turnaround came as Trump paused duties on most trading partners while maintaining pressure on China, signaling a potential revival of the so-called “Trump put.” However, the bond market remains jittery, with Treasury yields spiking amid forced liquidations, underscoring systemic fragility and the economic uncertainty stemming from erratic trade policy.

Investment Insight

The week’s extreme market swings reaffirm the heightened sensitivity of risk assets to policy volatility. While the rally suggests renewed investor faith in policy support, the lack of clarity on trade direction and the fragility in bond markets warn against complacency. Investors should remain defensively positioned, favoring liquidity and sectoral resilience, while monitoring policy cues as potential catalysts for both risk and recovery.

Fast Retailing Lifts Outlook as Uniqlo Profit Surges, Eyes Tariff Risks

Fast Retailing, the parent of Uniqlo, posted a 33% year-on-year jump in second-quarter operating profit to ¥146.7 billion ($999.9 million), well above analyst expectations, buoyed by strong global sales ahead of fresh U.S. tariff threats. The Japanese retailer raised its full-year profit forecast to ¥545 billion, citing robust overseas demand, particularly in North America and Europe, even as China—its largest overseas market—continues to slow. The upbeat earnings come amid rising macro uncertainty after President Trump’s sweeping tariff plan, which includes a 24% duty on Japanese goods, was temporarily paused. With over 2,500 stores globally and a supply chain rooted in Asia, Fast Retailing’s outlook remains vulnerable to geopolitics despite short-term momentum.

Investment Insight

Fast Retailing’s strong quarter and upgraded forecast highlight the strength of its global brand and operational scale. Yet the company’s exposure to U.S. trade policy and Asian manufacturing underscores rising execution risk. Investors should watch for profit margin pressures if tariffs materialize and assess the company’s ability to diversify sourcing and sustain growth in Western markets amid geopolitical headwinds.

March CPI May Mark Inflation Lull as Tariffs Threaten Fresh Pressures

The March Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected to show continued moderation in inflation, could be the final report reflecting easing price pressures before new tariffs reignite upward momentum. Forecasts point to headline inflation cooling to 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in February, with core CPI slipping slightly to 3.0%. However, economists warn that the data may already be outdated amid President Trump’s escalating trade measures, including a 125% tariff on Chinese goods and baseline duties on most countries. While the Fed remains cautious, the evolving tariff landscape is poised to complicate its inflation fight, potentially stalling the disinflationary trend seen in early 2025.

Investment Insight

March CPI may offer a short-lived reprieve for inflation watchers. With fresh tariffs likely to magnify cost pressures in the months ahead, especially in core components like goods and services, investors should prepare for renewed inflation volatility. Market expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts may need recalibration, reinforcing the case for inflation-resilient assets and a cautious approach to duration risk in fixed income portfolios.