Key Points

• Amazon’s India Bet: Amazon committed over $35 billion to expand India’s AI and cloud infrastructure through 2030, aiming to generate 1 million jobs, quadruple exports and accelerate AI adoption among millions of small businesses as global tech giants compete for leadership in the market.
• Nvidia’s China Catalyst: Analysts see strong long-term upside after President Trump approved Nvidia’s H200 chip sales to China, with revenue potential estimated at up to $3.5 billion per quarter despite remaining policy uncertainties and China’s parallel push for domestic semiconductor capacity.
• Fed’s Hawkish Cut Risk: Markets brace for a widely expected Fed rate cut that could come with hawkish guidance, as updated projections and Powell’s remarks may temper equity enthusiasm despite strong small-cap performance and mixed trading across major U.S. indices.
• Vietnam’s Market Surge: Vietnam’s stock market is among 2025’s top performers, driven by reforms, rising domestic participation and growing foreign investment, with its 2026 upgrade to emerging-market status expected to attract billions in new inflows and support continued long-term growth.

Amazon Commits $35 Billion to Accelerate India’s AI and Cloud Expansion

Amazon announced plans to invest more than $35 billion in India’s cloud and artificial intelligence infrastructure by 2030, deepening its long-term bet on one of the world’s fastest-growing digital markets. The commitment—unveiled at the Amazon Smbhav Summit—builds on nearly $40 billion already deployed and targets AI-led digitization, export growth and broad job creation. Amazon expects the initiative to generate 1 million jobs, quadruple exports to $80 billion and expand AI adoption among 15 million small businesses. The move follows Microsoft’s recent $17.5 billion investment pledge, underscoring intensifying competition among global tech giants to secure AI leadership in India.

Nvidia Gains U.S. Approval to Sell H200 Chips to China, Unlocking Major Revenue Potential

Nvidia’s share reaction was muted despite President Trump authorizing sales of its H200 AI chips to “approved customers” in China, as uncertainties remain over Chinese acceptance, congressional pushback and export-license details. Still, analysts broadly view the decision as a significant catalyst, citing the scale of China’s datacenter market and pent-up AI demand. JPMorgan expects the approval could restart China’s AI datacenter buildout, while Wolfe Research estimates Nvidia could generate roughly $3.5 billion in quarterly China revenues. With CEO Jensen Huang pointing to a $50 billion annual opportunity and several firms forecasting 40% upside, analysts see meaningful long-term potential despite near-term policy risks.

Fed Outlook Clouds Markets as Investors Brace for a Potential ‘Hawkish Cut’

U.S. equities were mixed ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders assigning near-certainty to a 25-basis-point move but focusing instead on the tone of policymakers’ guidance. Markets expect the Fed to lower rates to 3.5%–3.75%, yet officials may signal a slower easing path through the updated dot plot and Chair Powell’s remarks—raising the risk of a “hawkish cut” that tempers year-end optimism. The Russell 2000 hit an intraday high even as the S&P 500 and Dow slipped, while global attention turned to Vietnam’s strong market rally and renewed scrutiny of China’s soybean purchases. Analysts also highlighted the potential lift to Nvidia from expanded China chip approvals, though uncertainty over Beijing’s demand persists.

Vietnam’s Market Rally Accelerates as Reforms, Capital Inflows and Demographics Drive Momentum

Vietnam’s stock market has surged in 2025, with the VanEck Vietnam ETF up roughly 62% and the VN Index climbing 38% year to date, outpacing both China and broader emerging markets. The rally reflects strengthened domestic participation, structural reforms and rising trade activity, while Vietnam’s upcoming upgrade to secondary emerging-market status in 2026 is expected to attract as much as $6 billion in new inflows. Although gains remain concentrated in a few real estate names, analysts see room for broader earnings growth next year. Robust foreign investment, a young workforce, and ongoing policy improvements continue to reinforce Vietnam’s long-term economic trajectory despite external trade and currency risks.

Conclusion

Global markets continue to navigate a landscape shaped by rapid technological investment, shifting policy signals and evolving regional growth stories. Amazon’s significant AI commitment in India underscores the escalating competition among global cloud leaders, while Nvidia’s conditional re-entry into China highlights both the opportunity and complexity of the semiconductor cycle. Investors are also closely watching the Federal Reserve, where a potential “hawkish cut” could recalibrate risk sentiment heading into year-end. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s accelerating market momentum reflects the power of structural reform and demographic strength. Together, these developments reinforce a market environment where policy, innovation and regional differentiation remain central to portfolio strategy.

Investment Insights

• India AI Expansion: Amazon’s $35 billion commitment reinforces India’s emergence as a global AI and cloud hub; investors should monitor opportunities in data centers, digital infrastructure and firms positioned to benefit from accelerating SME digitization.
• Semiconductor Policy Watch: Nvidia’s conditional return to China offers substantial revenue optionality but comes with policy volatility; chip exposure should balance near-term upside from reopened demand with risk controls around U.S.–China regulatory shifts.
• Monetary Sensitivity: A potential “hawkish cut” from the Fed highlights the need for disciplined rate-path expectations; portfolios may benefit from calibrated exposure to rate-sensitive sectors while avoiding overreliance on a rapid easing cycle.
• Vietnam Growth Momentum: Vietnam’s strong market performance and forthcoming upgrade to emerging-market status strengthen the case for selective EM allocation; investors should favor sectors aligned with reforms, demographics and rising foreign direct investment rather than narrow real estate–led gains.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 10, 2025	China CPI & Inflation Data	Key gauge of Chinese domestic demand and disinflation risks, shaping expectations for PBOC policy and global commodity and emerging-market sentiment.
December 10, 2025	U.S. ADP Employment Change	Provides an early read on U.S. labor-market conditions ahead of official data, influencing views on growth resilience and the Fed’s policy path.
December 10, 2025	U.S. JOLTS Job Openings	Tracks labor demand and tightness in the jobs market, feeding into wage and inflation expectations that are central to Fed decision-making.
December 11, 2025	U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference	The December Fed meeting sets the benchmark rate and updated projections, driving global moves in yields, the U.S. dollar and risk assets.
December 11, 2025	Australia Employment Report	Monthly jobs data will guide views on domestic demand and influence RBA policy expectations and AUD positioning.
December 12, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Measures pipeline inflation pressures at the wholesale level, helping confirm or challenge the disinflation trend priced into bonds and equities.
December 12, 2025	U.S. Initial Jobless Claims	High-frequency indicator of labor-market softening or resilience, with surprises often moving Treasury yields, the dollar and rate-sensitive sectors.
December 12, 2025	U.K. Monthly GDP	Offers a timely snapshot of U.K. growth momentum, shaping Bank of England expectations and driving moves in gilts and sterling.
December 12, 2025	New Zealand Business NZ PMI	Key gauge of manufacturing activity that informs views on New Zealand’s growth outlook and potential RBNZ policy moves.

Key Points

• Paramount-WBD Battle: Paramount launched a hostile $30-per-share all-cash tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix’s accepted bid and setting up a high-stakes fight that could prompt counteroffers and legal battles as shareholders weigh value, control, and regulatory risk.
• U.S.-China Chip Shift: President Trump approved Nvidia’s H200 AI chip sales to “approved” Chinese customers in exchange for a 25% revenue share with the U.S. government, marking a significant shift in tech-trade policy and lifting semiconductor sentiment despite lingering geopolitical tensions.
• Middle East AI Momentum: Ray Dalio said the UAE and Saudi Arabia are emerging as global AI hubs, attracting talent and capital through large-scale cloud and data-center investments, while warning that global markets face a precarious period driven by debt burdens, political conflict, and stretched valuations.
• Farm Aid Package: The White House unveiled a $12 billion aid program to support U.S. farmers hit by trade-war fallout, offering one-time payments funded by tariff revenues as China’s agricultural imports remain below prior levels despite a tentative trade thaw.

Paramount Escalates Battle for WBD With Hostile $30 Cash Offer

Paramount intensified its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, launching a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share above Netflix’s previously accepted $27.75 cash-and-stock deal. Backed by $41 billion in equity financing and $54 billion in debt commitments, the offer sets up a high-stakes contest that could prompt a counter-move from Netflix.

WBD’s board reaffirmed support for its agreement with Netflix but will review Paramount’s proposal, which some analysts say could gain shareholder traction. A prolonged fight may lead to legal challenges, while questions around regulatory approval and deal synergies add further complexity to the streaming industry’s largest potential consolidation in years.

U.S. Clears Nvidia’s H200 Chip Sales to China Under New Revenue-Sharing Deal

President Trump said the U.S. will allow Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to “approved” Chinese customers, provided 25% of the revenue goes to the U.S. government — a sharp increase from the 15% sharing arrangement agreed earlier this year. Trump said President Xi “responded positively,” framing the policy as supportive of U.S. jobs and manufacturing, with similar terms expected for AMD and Intel.

Nvidia shares rose on the approval before paring gains. The decision marks a notable shift in U.S.-China tech policy and adds a new commercial layer to the countries’ AI competition, even as export controls and geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.

Dalio Says Gulf Is Emerging as a Global AI Powerhouse Amid Growing Market Risks

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said the Middle East is rapidly becoming a major global AI hub, comparing the momentum in the UAE and Saudi Arabia to the early energy of Silicon Valley. Massive sovereign-fund investment, global tech partnerships and large-scale cloud and data-center projects are drawing capital and talent to the region.

Dalio also warned that the next two years could be “more precarious” for markets, citing mounting debt pressures, U.S. political polarization and elevated asset valuations. While he views the AI boom as bubble-like, he cautioned investors against exiting prematurely, noting that bubbles typically unwind when liquidity tightens or forced selling begins.

Trump Unveils $12 Billion Aid Package to Cushion Farmers Hit by Trade War

President Trump announced a $12 billion support package for U.S. farmers facing pressure from ongoing trade disputes, particularly with China, which halted major soybean purchases during key harvest months. The plan directs up to $11 billion toward one-time “bridge payments” for row-crop producers, funded by tariff revenues, with another $1 billion held in reserve as market conditions evolve.

While the administration frames the move as a temporary buffer until new trade deals take effect, critics argue the aid fails to offset higher production costs and lost market access. The announcement comes as China’s agricultural imports remain below prior levels despite a tentative trade thaw.

Conclusion

Markets begin the week navigating a complex mix of corporate maneuvering, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving geopolitical forces. Paramount’s challenge to Netflix highlights intensifying competition in media consolidation, while Washington’s conditional approval of Nvidia chip sales to China adds a new dimension to the global tech landscape.

Ray Dalio’s assessment of the Middle East as a rising AI hub underscores the region’s growing strategic importance, even as he warns of broader economic fragilities. Meanwhile, U.S. farm aid reflects ongoing trade tensions and uneven global demand. Together, these developments frame a landscape where policy, innovation and geopolitical risk remain central to investment decisions.

Investment Insights

• Media M&A Dynamics: Paramount’s hostile bid for WBD signals a more competitive and unpredictable phase for media consolidation; investors should expect increased volatility across streaming and content ecosystems as bidding wars raise valuation uncertainty and regulatory risk.
• AI Chip Policy Shift: The U.S. decision to permit Nvidia’s H200 sales to China under a 25% revenue-share model highlights both the opportunity and policy sensitivity in AI semiconductors; positioning should balance upside from expanded markets with the possibility of rapid geopolitical reversals.
• Gulf AI Expansion: The UAE and Saudi Arabia’s emergence as major AI and cloud infrastructure hubs strengthens long-duration themes in data centers, high-performance compute, and sovereign-backed technology investment; treat the region as an increasingly influential capital and innovation base.
• Trade-Exposed Sector Caution: The $12 billion U.S. farm aid package underscores persistent weakness in agricultural trade flows; investors should differentiate between producers with diversified export markets and those still vulnerable to China-linked demand and tariff uncertainty.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 9–10, 2025	Federal Reserve (FOMC) Rate Decision & Updated Projections	Markets widely expect a 25-basis-point cut; the Fed’s guidance and dot-plot will shape global rate and risk expectations for 2026.
December 10, 2025	Chinese CPI & Inflation Data	Inflation in China will inform investor views on demand, consumer strength and central bank policy — key for global commodity and emerging-market sentiment.
December 11, 2025	Swiss National Bank (SNB) Rate Decision	SNB guidance could influence EUR/CHF currency pairs and broader European fixed-income markets, especially amid shifting global central-bank dynamics.
December 12, 2025	Germany Final CPI Estimate (Euro-zone inflation gauge)	Germany’s final CPI will influence euro-zone inflation expectations, affecting bond yields and policy expectations for the € area.
December 12, 2025	Australia Employment Report	Labour data will inform views on domestic demand and influence AUD and market expectations for future rate moves by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Key Points

• China Trade Rebound: China’s exports jumped 5.9% in November after the U.S. tariff truce, helping lift the country’s record trade surplus even as weak imports underscored persistent softness in domestic demand.
• Asia Markets Mixed: Asia-Pacific equities traded unevenly, with the CSI 300 rising on strong trade data while Japan’s deeper-than-expected GDP contraction and caution ahead of the RBA decision tempered broader regional sentiment.
• Border Tensions: Thailand launched air strikes along its Cambodian border after ceasefire violations, triggering mass civilian evacuations and raising geopolitical risk across a region already navigating fragile economic conditions.
• China AI Spend: Chinese internet giants are accelerating AI infrastructure investment, fueling demand for domestic chipmakers such as Cambricon, Hygon and Innolight as U.S. export curbs intensify the shift toward local compute solutions.

China’s Export Rebound Signals Relief After U.S. Trade Truce

China’s exports rose 5.9% in November, sharply outperforming expectations and marking a strong rebound from October’s contraction as manufacturers accelerated shipments following a one-year tariff truce with the U.S. Imports grew just 1.9%, underscoring continued weakness in domestic demand amid a prolonged housing downturn and soft labor conditions.

The improved export momentum pushed China’s 11-month trade surplus to $1.076 trillion, up more than 21% from last year, even as factory activity remained in contraction. Policymakers are expected to introduce incremental easing at this month’s Central Economic Work Conference to support a 2026 growth target of around 5%, with forecasts calling for a wider fiscal deficit and modest rate cuts. Analysts warn that sustained growth will require a shift toward stronger household consumption, despite the recent strengthening of the yuan.

Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as China’s Export Rebound Lifts Mainland Shares

Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed as investors assessed China’s stronger-than-expected November trade data while awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. The Hang Seng fell 0.84% even as the CSI 300 gained 1.11% after China posted a 5.9% jump in exports, reversing October’s contraction.

Japan’s economy disappointed with a deeper 2.3% annualized GDP decline in Q3, softening the Nikkei, while South Korea’s Kospi posted modest gains. Australia’s ASX slipped ahead of a widely expected RBA hold at 3.60% through 2026. In India, IndiGo shares dropped over 5% following regulatory scrutiny after widespread flight cancellations. U.S. indices ended last week higher, with the S&P 500 marking a fourth consecutive daily gain and trading just below record levels.

Thai–Cambodian Border Tensions Escalate as Air Strikes Resume

Thailand launched air strikes along its disputed border with Cambodia after both sides accused each other of violating a recent ceasefire, reigniting one of Southeast Asia’s most persistent territorial flashpoints. The clashes, which have already left one Thai soldier dead and forced the evacuation of more than 385,000 civilians, mark the most serious escalation since a brief war in July that killed 48 people and displaced hundreds of thousands.

Cambodia claims Thailand initiated new attacks despite earlier peace agreements brokered by regional leaders and the U.S., while Thailand cites continued security threats and a recent landmine blast. The renewed conflict underscores the fragility of border stability and raises concerns over broader regional risk at a time when Southeast Asia is already navigating economic headwinds.

Chinese AI Spending Surge Opens Tailwinds for Domestic Chipmakers

China’s major internet platforms are sharply increasing investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, fueling expectations that domestic semiconductor and optical module suppliers will be key beneficiaries. Alibaba signaled it may exceed its planned 380 billion yuan AI buildout as cloud demand outpaces available compute, a trend analysts expect peers to follow.

With U.S. restrictions limiting access to Nvidia’s most advanced chips, attention has shifted to mainland-listed firms such as Cambricon and Hygon, while newly listed GPU maker Moore Threads has drawn strong investor interest after a 400% debut rally. Analysts highlight rising opportunities for semiconductor production equipment vendors and optical module leaders like Innolight, which stand to gain as China accelerates onshore compute capacity and global data-center demand expands.

Conclusion

Global markets open the week balancing signs of resilience with emerging risks. China’s stronger export performance lifted sentiment across parts of Asia, though weak domestic demand and ongoing policy uncertainty remain key watchpoints heading into 2026. Regional markets were mixed as Japan’s deeper GDP contraction and geopolitical tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border added layers of caution.

At the same time, China’s accelerating AI investment cycle is reshaping expectations for domestic chip and infrastructure suppliers. Investors continue to weigh these crosscurrents, with upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments likely to guide near-term positioning and market direction.

Investment Insights

• China Trade Divergence: China’s export rebound offers near-term support for manufacturers, but weak imports signal that domestic demand remains fragile; investors may benefit from distinguishing between externally driven growth plays and consumption-linked sectors still under pressure.
• Asia Positioning: Mixed regional equity performance and Japan’s sharper GDP decline argue for balanced Asia-Pacific exposure, avoiding concentrated bets as monetary paths and growth outlooks diverge heading into 2026.
• Geopolitical Hedging: Renewed Thailand–Cambodia border tensions highlight the need for geopolitical risk buffers; portfolios with Southeast Asia exposure should assume episodic volatility rather than linear recovery.
• China AI Buildout: Accelerating AI capex by Chinese tech giants strengthens the investment case for domestic chip, compute, and optical module suppliers; rather than viewing these firms as substitutes for U.S. peers, investors should treat China’s AI hardware ecosystem as a distinct, policy-driven opportunity set.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 9, 2025	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision & Statement	Investors in Asia-Pacific and commodities will watch for RBA guidance — its decision could impact AUD, rates expectations, and risk sentiment in the region.
December 10, 2025	Federal Reserve (FOMC) Rate Decision & Policy Statement	The U.S. rate decision is expected to set the tone for global risk assets, currency markets and bond yields — a cut could fuel equities and weigh on the dollar.
December 10–12, 2025	China CPI & other inflation/industrial-data releases	Chinese inflation and industrial data will give insight into demand, consumer strength and growth — influencing sentiment toward Chinese equities and global commodity markets.
December 11, 2025	Swiss National Bank (SNB) Rate Decision	SNB guidance could influence EUR/CHF crosses and broader European fixed-income and FX markets ahead of year-end.
December 12, 2025	Germany Final CPI Estimate (Euro-zone inflation gauge)	The final CPI reading for Germany — Europe’s largest economy — may influence euro-zone bond yields, ECB expectations and risk sentiment across European markets.

Key Points

• China GPUs: “China’s Nvidia” Moore Threads soared over 400% on its Shanghai debut after a $1.1 billion IPO, underscoring intense domestic demand for AI GPUs as Beijing accelerates efforts to localize high-end chip supply.
• Europe & the Fed: European equities edged higher as investors priced in an ~87% probability of a Fed rate cut next week, while watching fresh U.S. inflation and spending data alongside ongoing Ukraine peace negotiations.
• Oil & Geopolitics: WTI is on track for a second straight weekly gain, supported by Fed-cut expectations, disrupted Caspian exports, OPEC+’s steady output stance and rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions.
• AI & Software: Salesforce shares bounced after strong earnings and rapid Agentforce growth, with CEO Marc Benioff arguing large language models are a “commodity” layer and that durable value will sit in proprietary data and enterprise apps.

Moore Threads’ Blockbuster Debut Underscores China’s GPU Push

Shares of Moore Threads, dubbed “China’s Nvidia,” surged more than 400% on their Shanghai debut after a $1.1 billion IPO, closing over five times the offer price.

The loss-making GPU designer plans to deploy proceeds into next-generation AI training and inference chips and working capital, despite being under U.S. sanctions since 2023 that restrict access to advanced foundries.

The listing highlights Beijing’s accelerated drive for domestic AI hardware, as rivals such as Huawei, Cambricon, Enflame and Biren race to fill the gap left by Nvidia export curbs, reinforcing the strategic importance of China’s local GPU ecosystem.

European Equities Edge Higher as Fed and Data Calendar Drive Sentiment

European stocks opened firmer, with the Stoxx 600 up around 0.3%, as investors position ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, where markets now price an 87% probability of a 25 bp rate cut.

Attention today is on delayed U.S. PCE inflation, consumer spending and sentiment data after jobless claims surprised on the downside, as well as euro area GDP and key national indicators from Germany, France and Italy.

Geopolitics remains in the background amid EU talks on using frozen Russian assets and Putin’s India visit, while single-stock moves include a drop in Swiss Re and a double-digit jump in Ocado on a settlement from Kroger.

Oil Steadies as WTI Heads for Second Weekly Gain on Fed Hopes and Supply Risks

WTI crude is on track for a roughly 1.7% weekly gain, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, elevated geopolitical risk, and constrained exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, even as both WTI and Brent ticked slightly lower in Friday trade.

While OPEC+ has committed to keep output steady into early 2026, markets are weighing the downside risk of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could return additional barrels against upside risks from escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions, which threaten roughly 1.1 million bpd of Venezuelan supply.

Saudi Arabia’s price cuts to Asia underscore a still-fragile balance between surplus fears and geopolitically driven support.

Salesforce Reframes AI as Commodity Layer as Agentforce Drives Share Rebound

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff pushed back against fears that AI will erode enterprise software moats, arguing large language models are “commodity” inputs and that value lies in proprietary data and applications.

He highlighted Agentforce, Salesforce’s AI-driven workflow automation suite, now running at more than $500 million in annualized revenue and growing 330% year on year, with over 18,500 deals closed since launch.

Despite Salesforce shares being down over 25% year-to-date while the Nasdaq gains more than 20%, the stock rose after a strong earnings beat and upgraded revenue guidance, underscoring investor appetite for proven, monetized AI use cases over pure model bets.

Conclusion

Global markets continue to rotate around three intertwined forces: AI infrastructure, monetary policy, and geopolitics.

China’s aggressive push to build a domestic GPU ecosystem, highlighted by Moore Threads’ explosive IPO, reinforces the structural demand story in AI hardware while raising competitive pressure on incumbent leaders.

In developed markets, rising expectations of a near-term Fed rate cut are keeping risk assets supported, even as commodity prices respond to renewed supply and security risks.

At the same time, Salesforce’s stance that AI is a commoditized layer underlines a broader shift: durable value will accrue to data-rich platforms, not standalone models over time.

Investment Insights

• AI hardware: diversify beyond U.S. names. Moore Threads’ explosive IPO highlights Beijing’s commitment to domestic GPUs; global investors should treat Chinese AI hardware as a parallel ecosystem with its own regulatory and geopolitical risk, not a simple Nvidia proxy.
• Central banks still anchor risk sentiment. With markets heavily priced for a Fed cut and a full week of data ahead, portfolios should remain flexible around rate expectations and avoid over-concentrating in any single “soft landing” scenario.
• Oil: range-bound with asymmetric tail risks. Fed easing, OPEC+ discipline, and Venezuela/Russia headlines keep a floor under crude; energy exposure can serve as a partial hedge against geopolitical shocks, but position sizing should assume periodic spikes and retracements rather than a one-way trend.
• AI as a feature, not a moat. Benioff’s “LLMs are a commodity” message reinforces a key theme: durable value is more likely to sit in firms that own trusted customer data, workflow integration, and distribution, rather than in model providers alone.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 5, 2025	U.S. Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls)	Key read on U.S. labor-market strength, wage trends and recession risk; can shift expectations for Fed policy and bond yields.
December 10, 2025	U.S. CPI & Federal Reserve Rate Decision (FOMC)	Combined inflation print and Fed decision set the tone for global risk appetite, dollar direction and rate expectations into 2026.
December 11, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Tracks pipeline price pressures from companies; an upside surprise could challenge Fed-dovish market pricing after the CPI/FOMC day.
December 18, 2025	European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting	Crucial update on eurozone rates and new ECB projections, with implications for EUR moves, European bond yields and global equity rotation.

Key Points

• Europe’s largest rare earth magnet plant: Neo’s new facility in Narva on Russia’s border is ramping up toward supplying roughly 10% of EU demand, signalling a strategic push to reduce dependence on Chinese critical minerals.
• Japanese government bond yields surge: Yields have climbed to their highest levels since the late 1990s–2000s, sharpening the Bank of Japan’s dilemma between continuing rate normalization and protecting growth in an already heavily indebted economy.
• Asia-Pacific equities rise: Markets mostly gained, led by a strong rally in Japan’s Nikkei, as weaker U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut next week even while AI-linked U.S. tech names remain under pressure.
• India strengthens ties with Russia: India’s decision to host President Putin and target a rise in India-Russia trade to $100 billion by 2030 highlights New Delhi’s determination to deepen strategic and energy ties with Moscow despite steep U.S. tariffs and geopolitical scrutiny.

Europe Builds Rare Earths Foothold on Russia’s Border

Europe’s largest rare earths magnet plant, developed by Neo Performance Materials in Narva, Estonia, is ramping up output as the EU seeks to cut dependence on Chinese supply chains.

The facility aims to produce 2,000 metric tons of magnets this year, scaling toward 5,000 tons, potentially covering about 10% of EU demand in a market still dominated by China’s 90%-plus share of global magnet manufacturing.

Backed by EU funding and supply deals with major auto suppliers like Schaeffler and Bosch, the project highlights both Europe’s strategic push for resource security and the challenges of building cost-competitive, diversified capacity in a sensitive geopolitical location.

BOJ Squeezed Between Rising Yields and Persistent Inflation

Japanese government bond yields have climbed to their highest levels in more than 15 years, sharpening the Bank of Japan’s policy dilemma as it attempts to exit ultra-easy settings without destabilizing growth.

The 10-year JGB yield hit 1.92% on Thursday, with 20- and 30-year yields nearing 3% and above, reflecting mounting concerns over inflation that has stayed above the BOJ’s 2% target for 43 consecutive months and growing fiscal strain from record stimulus and a debt-to-GDP ratio near 230%.

While higher rates risk further yield spikes and heavier funding costs, a renewed shift to easing could weaken the yen and worsen imported inflation, leaving global investors braced for episodic volatility rather than a repeat of 2024’s carry-trade-driven market shock.

Asia Equities Track Wall Street on Fed Cut Optimism Despite Tech Drag

Asian markets were mostly higher on Thursday as softer U.S. labor data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, lifting risk appetite across the region. Japan led gains, with the Nikkei 225 up 2.3% and Topix nearly 2%, driven by industrials and AI-linked names such as Fanuc and SoftBank, while chip-related stocks extended their rally on deal and partnership headlines.

Chinese and Hong Kong benchmarks posted modest advances, whereas South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq slipped and India’s indices were flat as the rupee hit fresh record lows.

Overnight in the U.S., AI-exposed mega-cap tech lagged, but broader indices still closed in positive territory as markets priced an almost 90% probability of imminent Fed easing.

India Deepens Russia Ties Despite U.S. Tariffs and Energy Pressure

India will host President Vladimir Putin on Dec. 4–5 for the 23rd India-Russia summit, underscoring New Delhi’s intent to preserve a “special and privileged” partnership with Moscow despite punitive U.S. tariffs on Indian exports linked to Russian oil purchases.

The two sides aim to lift bilateral trade from $68.7 billion in FY 2025 to $100 billion by 2030, broadening flows beyond discounted crude into machinery, chemicals, food, pharmaceuticals, defense and civil nuclear cooperation.

For markets, the visit highlights India’s balancing act between strategic energy security, defense diversification away from Russia, and maintaining access to U.S. trade and capital.

Conclusion

Global markets are navigating a complex mix of opportunity and risk as 2025 draws to a close.

Europe is taking tangible steps to reduce its dependence on Chinese critical minerals, while Japan confronts the constraints of normalizing policy in a highly indebted economy.

In Asia, risk assets remain broadly supported by expectations of imminent Fed easing, even as leadership rotates within the tech complex.

India’s deepening engagement with Russia, despite U.S. pressure, underlines a more fragmented geopolitical landscape that will increasingly shape trade flows, commodity pricing and capital allocation in 2026.

Selectivity, risk management and time horizons matter more.

Investment Insights

• Strategic commodities: Europe’s push to localize rare earth magnet production on NATO’s eastern flank highlights how security and supply chains are converging. Long-term capital is likely to reward upstream and midstream projects that credibly reduce dependence on China.
• Japan’s policy squeeze: Rising JGB yields and a highly indebted sovereign leave the BOJ with limited room for error. A misstep could reprice global bond markets and yen-funded carry trades, arguing for prudent duration and FX risk management.
• Rate-cut optimism in Asia: Asian equities remain highly sensitive to U.S. labor data and Fed expectations. Investors should distinguish between structural beneficiaries of AI and robotics and markets merely riding the liquidity tide.
• India’s multi-alignment: India’s decision to deepen ties with Russia despite punitive U.S. tariffs signals a more multipolar trade and energy map. Over time, this could re-route energy flows and defence spending, creating opportunities in logistics, alternative suppliers and India’s own industrial and export base.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 5, 2025	U.S. Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls)	Key read on U.S. labor-market strength, wage trends and recession risk; can shift expectations for Fed policy and bond yields.
December 10, 2025	U.S. CPI & Federal Reserve Rate Decision (FOMC)	Combined inflation print and Fed decision set the tone for global risk appetite, dollar direction and rate expectations into 2026.
December 11, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Tracks pipeline price pressures from companies; an upside surprise could challenge Fed-dovish market pricing after the CPI/FOMC day.
December 18, 2025	European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting	Crucial update on eurozone rates and new ECB projections, with implications for EUR moves, European bond yields and global equity rotation.

Key Points

• China’s 2026 Flashpoints – Property, Consumption, Deflation: Beijing heads into its year-end policy meetings with deep property stress, weak household demand and lingering deflation risks still weighing on China’s growth outlook.
• Anthropic’s Mega-IPO Ambition: Claude’s parent Anthropic is reportedly exploring an IPO and new funding at a valuation north of $300 billion, testing investor appetite for high-burn AI infrastructure plays amid bubble concerns.
• Market Signals Google as AI Front-Runner: Alphabet and Broadcom now trade at a premium to Nvidia-linked peers as Gemini 3 and Google’s TPUs drive a market narrative that Google is pulling ahead in the AI race.
• Risk Assets Rise on Dovish Fed Bets: Expectations that Kevin Hassett will succeed Powell and prioritize rate cuts are weakening the dollar, steepening yield curves and supporting equities, copper, oil and a rebound in bitcoin.

China 2026 Flashpoints

China heads into 2026 with stronger global standing but lingering domestic frailties centered on property, consumer demand and deflation.

Deepening real estate stress, highlighted by Vanke’s bond repayment troubles and double-digit declines in new home sales, continues to erode household confidence.

Beijing is pushing a supply-side strategy to build trillion-yuan consumer industries and integrate AI, yet weak income growth and rising household bad loans constrain spending.

Persistent near-zero inflation, with underlying price gains flattered by gold, underscores deflation pressure that is discouraging private investment and keeps expectations high for more policy support next year.

Anthropic Eyes Mega-IPO Amid Surging AI Valuations

Anthropic is reportedly preparing for one of the largest tech IPOs on record while simultaneously exploring a private funding round that could value the Claude-maker above $300 billion, with about $15 billion in fresh backing from Microsoft and Nvidia under discussion.

The company has engaged Wilson Sonsini and held early talks with major banks, signalling advanced listing preparations even as management insists no decision on timing has been made.

A potential Anthropic IPO, alongside a future OpenAI float, would test investor appetite for high-burn AI platforms at peak valuations and intensify scrutiny of whether current AI pricing reflects sustainable cash-flow prospects or bubble dynamics.

Market Signals Favor Alphabet in Intensifying AI Race

Alphabet’s latest Gemini 3 launch and its custom Ironwood TPU chip have shifted market perception of who leads in AI, with investors now pricing Google as the sector frontrunner.

Since Gemini 3’s November debut, Alphabet and chip partner Broadcom have sharply outperformed Nvidia and Microsoft, whose fortunes are more tightly tied to OpenAI’s ChatGPT and GPU demand.

Wells Fargo notes that “Gemini/TPU” exposed names now trade at a valuation premium to “ChatGPT/GPU” peers for the first time in nearly a decade, underscoring a more selective AI trade where leadership, proprietary silicon and ecosystem depth increasingly determine winners.

Risk Assets Firm as Markets Price in a Dovish Fed Pivot

Global markets steadied on Wednesday, with equities, copper and oil advancing as investors doubled down on expectations that a Kevin Hassett-led Federal Reserve would favor lower rates.

The dollar weakened for a ninth straight day, yield curves steepened, and U.S. 10-year Treasurys hovered just above 4% while two-year yields slipped to 3.5%, reinforcing the softer-rate narrative.

Bitcoin rebounded above $92,000 after a sharp autumn drawdown, and copper hit a record high, underscoring renewed risk appetite.

Oil rose about 1% as fragile Russia-Ukraine peace prospects kept supply risks in focus, while the yen stayed firm amid elevated Japanese government bond yields.

Conclusion

Markets are ending the week with a complex mix of exuberance and fragility. China enters 2026 with unresolved stress in property, consumer demand and prices, even as its tech ecosystem regains global credibility.

In contrast, the United States is doubling down on AI, with private valuations and prospective mega-IPOs such as Anthropic testing the boundary between structural growth and speculative excess.

Public markets are already distinguishing winners, rotating toward perceived AI leaders like Alphabet and Broadcom.

At the macro level, expectations of a more dovish Fed continue to support risk assets, but concentration and policy risk remain elevated for now.

Investment Insights

• China: focus on resilience, not rebound. Persistent pressure in property, household balance sheets and prices suggests China remains a structural “value trap” in some segments. Investors may want to be selective.
• AI: separate infrastructure from speculation. Anthropic’s potential mega-IPO and soaring private valuations reinforce the need to distinguish between durable AI infrastructure (chips, cloud, data centers) and high-burn, unproven business models.
• Platform rotation inside ‘Big Tech’: Market pricing now implies Google has pulled ahead in the AI race, with TPUs and Gemini reshaping expectations.
• Macro backdrop still risk-supportive, but narrow: Expectations of a more dovish Fed and a weaker dollar continue to underpin global risk assets and commodities.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 5, 2025	U.S. Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls)	Key read on U.S. labor-market strength, wage trends and recession risk; can shift expectations for Fed policy and bond yields.
December 10, 2025	U.S. CPI & Federal Reserve Rate Decision (FOMC)	Combined inflation print and Fed decision set the tone for global risk appetite, dollar direction and rate expectations into 2026.
December 11, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Tracks pipeline price pressures from companies; an upside surprise could challenge Fed-dovish market pricing after the CPI/FOMC day.
December 18, 2025	European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting	Crucial update on eurozone rates and new ECB projections, with implications for EUR moves, European bond yields and global equity rotation.

Key Points

• AI Hardware Squeeze: Nvidia’s pivot toward advanced memory and the AI data center buildout are straining global chip and storage supply, raising component costs and increasing the risk of price hikes and shortages in consumer electronics.
• AI Rally & FOMO Risk: The ECB warns that elevated AI stock valuations and heavy index concentration may be partly FOMO-driven, yet strategists still see upside where earnings justify prices, emphasizing selective exposure over broad de-risking.
• Fed Leadership in Focus: National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett has emerged as frontrunner for Fed chair, with markets expecting a more rate-cut-friendly regime at a time when the central bank is internally divided on the path of policy.
• Crypto Volatility Returns: Bitcoin and ether logged their worst session in months as risk-off sentiment, high leverage and renewed regulatory pressure from China triggered a sharp crypto sell-off and highlighted ongoing fragility in digital assets.

AI Chip Crunch Threatens to Push Up Gadget Prices

The global AI infrastructure buildout is straining semiconductor supply chains, with Nvidia’s surging demand for advanced memory and storage amplifying bottlenecks that now reach into consumer electronics.

High-bandwidth memory (HBM), DRAM and storage devices such as HDDs and SSDs are in short supply, with research houses expecting memory prices to jump roughly 30% in Q4 and another 20% in early 2026.

As foundries prioritize AI data-center orders, PC and smartphone makers face both higher component costs and tighter availability, raising the risk of 5%–10% increases in bill-of-materials and potential shortages in popular devices.

FOMO, Concentration Risk and the AI Leaders

The European Central Bank’s latest Financial Stability Review warns that stretched AI-related valuations and the growing dominance of U.S. hyperscalers have raised concentration and downside risks, with “fear of missing out” likely fueling parts of the rally.

While global equities sit near record highs and the “Magnificent 7” now account for roughly 40% of major U.S. benchmarks, strategists stress differentiation rather than capitulation: leading AI names still enjoy exceptional earnings growth, but peripheral plays and pre-profit stories look vulnerable if sentiment turns or delivery disappoints.

Non-bank financials with heavy tech exposure could be hit hardest in an abrupt reversal.

Fed Leadership in Focus as Markets Bet on Easier Policy

With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as the market’s favored frontrunner for the next Federal Reserve chair, reinforcing expectations of a more rate-friendly regime.

Prediction markets assign him strong odds, while futures point to nearly 90% probability of a rate cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting, despite a Fed still split between inflation hawks and growth-focused doves.

Beyond near-term cuts, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is signaling a push to “simplify” the Fed’s role and reform its communication and regional structure, a shift that could reshape policy signaling and volatility ahead.

Bitcoin Slides as Leverage and Risk-Off Mood Hit Crypto

Bitcoin logged its worst day since March, dropping about 6% to roughly $85,900, while ether fell 8.4% and Solana more than 9% as December opened with renewed risk aversion across markets.

The sell-off was exacerbated by heavily leveraged positions in crypto derivatives and reports of a large exchange-related unwind, amplifying downside moves.

In Asia, a fresh warning from the People’s Bank of China on illegal digital currency activity pressured Hong Kong listed crypto-related stocks, underscoring how tighter regulatory scrutiny, macro uncertainty over U.S. rate policy and fragile sentiment around high-valuation tech are feeding into broader digital asset volatility.

Conclusion

Markets enter December with optimism tempered by concentration risk and policy uncertainty.

The AI buildout continues to reshape both capital markets and global supply chains, driving hardware bottlenecks and stretching valuations in a narrow group of mega-cap names.

At the same time, the prospect of a more dovish Fed under new leadership is anchoring rate-cut expectations, even as officials remain divided.

Outside traditional assets, renewed crypto volatility underscores how leveraged and sentiment-driven segments can amplify broader risk-off moves.

For investors, the key remains disciplined positioning: participate in structural themes, but avoid relying on a single policy outcome or sector narrative.

Investment Insights

• AI buildout = tech winners + cost pressure: The same AI data-center boom that supports long-term earnings for chip and cloud leaders is driving component shortages and higher memory prices; investors should factor rising input costs into consumer electronics, autos, and industrials while favoring suppliers with pricing power and secured capacity.
• Treat AI as a theme, not a stampede: With central banks flagging stretched valuations and FOMO dynamics in mega-cap AI names, the risk is less “AI is wrong” and more “too much paid too quickly” portfolios should emphasize quality balance sheets, proven cash flows, and differentiated AI revenue rather than broad thematic chasing.
• Fed transition is a policy risk, not just a personality change: A Hassett-led Fed would likely lean more clearly toward lower rates and simplification of policy, but a divided committee and calls for structural reform mean rate paths could be volatile; duration and rate-sensitive equity exposure should be sized with this uncertainty in mind, not on a single cut scenario.
• Crypto remains a sentiment amplifier, not a safe haven: Bitcoin’s sharp drawdown amid high leverage and regulatory noise shows it still trades as a high-beta risk asset; for now it is better viewed as a tactical, small-sleeve exposure rather than a core defensive allocation in multi-asset portfolios.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 5, 2025	U.S. Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls)	Key read on U.S. labor-market strength, wage trends and recession risk; can shift expectations for Fed policy and bond yields.
December 10, 2025	U.S. CPI & Federal Reserve Rate Decision (FOMC)	Combined inflation print and Fed decision set the tone for global risk appetite, dollar direction and rate expectations into 2026.
December 11, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Tracks pipeline price pressures from companies; an upside surprise could challenge Fed-dovish market pricing after the CPI/FOMC day.
December 18, 2025	European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting	Crucial update on eurozone rates and new ECB projections, with implications for EUR moves, European bond yields and global equity rotation.

Key Points

• China’s Factory Setback: Manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction, while services turned negative, highlighting weak domestic demand despite stronger export orders.
• Black Friday Fatigue: Spending over the “Turkey 5” weekend declined, foot traffic stagnated, and widespread discounts pressured retail margins.
• Asian Markets Retreat: Stronger yen and 17-year-high Japanese bond yields hint at a potential BOJ rate hike, dampening risk appetite despite U.S. Fed cut hopes.
• Oil Rebounds on Supply Risks: Crude gained ~2% as pipeline disruptions and U.S.–Venezuela tensions countered the broader oversupply narrative.

China PMIs Flag Renewed Factory Slowdown Despite Export Uptick

China’s private RatingDog manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.9 in November, unexpectedly dipping into contraction and missing forecasts of 50.5, as new orders and production stalled despite the fastest rise in export orders in eight months. The survey reinforces the official PMI, which showed an eighth straight month of factory contraction and the first decline in non-manufacturing activity since 2022, underscoring how weak domestic demand, a deep property slump and falling investment are dragging growth toward sub-4.5% in Q4. While a recent U.S.–China trade truce has eased external uncertainty, equities’ modest gains suggest investors remain cautious about a durable demand recovery.

Black Friday Loses Its Punch as Promotions Stretch and Shoppers Pull Back

Black Friday is increasingly a muted, drawn-out promotion rather than a single, high-impact retail event, as U.S. consumers spend less over the Thanksgiving “Turkey 5” and foot traffic stagnates despite resilient online sales. Retailers such as Walmart, Target and Kohl’s now spread discounts across November, diluting the urgency of one-day “doorbusters” and easing staffing and inventory pressures. Yet weaker real spending, “rampant discounting” and overlapping promotions have eroded trust in deals, with millennials and Gen X less likely to concentrate purchases on Black Friday. The result is steadier but softer holiday demand, pressuring margins and favouring scale players with strong e-commerce and pricing analytics.

Asian Stocks Slip as Yen Strengthens on BOJ Hints and Risk Appetite Cools

Asian equities started December on the back foot, with the Nikkei down about 2% and regional indices softer as a firmer yen and rising Japanese government bond yields signaled growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments pushed the yen to around 155.55 per dollar and drove 2- and 10-year JGB yields to their highest levels since 2008, reinforcing a risk-off tone that also saw S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fall 0.7%–0.8% and bitcoin and ether drop more than 5%. While Hang Seng gains reflected hopes for more China stimulus after weak PMIs, global sentiment remains tied to upcoming U.S. data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments, even as traders still price an 87% chance of a December rate cut and oil edges higher after OPEC+ kept output unchanged.

Oil Climbs as Supply Risks Challenge Glut Narrative

Oil prices rebounded around 2%, with Brent at $63.64 and WTI at $59.82, as investors shifted focus from oversupply fears to mounting geopolitical risks. Exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which handles about 1% of global supply, were disrupted after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged infrastructure at Russia’s Black Sea terminal, while fresh U.S.–Venezuela tensions added another layer of uncertainty. OPEC+’s decision to keep output unchanged for Q1 2026 provided additional support, temporarily reversing a four-month losing streak and signaling that perceived supply risks can still outweigh demand and surplus concerns in shaping oil sentiment.

Conclusion

Monday signals point to a market still searching for balance between weaker demand and evolving policy and supply dynamics. China’s unexpected manufacturing contraction and soft services data reinforce a slower domestic growth profile, even as exports offer a modest offset. In developed markets, a diluted Black Friday and softer Turkey 5 spending highlight a more cautious consumer, pressuring retail margins. In Asia, a firmer yen and higher JGB yields suggest the BOJ may finally shift policy, tempering risk appetite. Meanwhile, oil’s rebound on fresh supply risks shows geopolitics can still quickly override the prevailing glut narrative.

Investment Insights

• China Growth: Focus on Quality, Not Just Beta: Slowing PMIs and weak domestic demand point to a more selective China allocation.
• Retail: Margin Discipline Over Headline Sales: With Black Friday stretched into a “discount season” and Turkey 5 spending falling, the winners are likely retailers that use data to target promotions, protect margins and lean on omnichannel scale rather than chasing volume at any price.
• Japan: BOJ Shift as a Potential Regime Change: A stronger yen and higher JGB yields suggest Japan is edging toward more conventional monetary policy.
• Energy: Supply Shocks Still Matter: Oil’s rebound on pipeline damage and geopolitical tension shows supply risks can quickly reprice crude even in a “glut” narrative. Energy exposure should consider both downside from slower global growth and upside optionality from sudden disruptions.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
December 5, 2025	U.S. Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls)	Key read on U.S. labor-market strength, wage trends and recession risk; can shift expectations for Fed policy and bond yields.
December 10, 2025	U.S. CPI & Federal Reserve Rate Decision (FOMC)	Combined inflation print and Fed decision set the tone for global risk appetite, dollar direction and rate expectations into 2026.
December 11, 2025	U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)	Tracks pipeline price pressures from companies; an upside surprise could challenge Fed-dovish market pricing after the CPI/FOMC day.
December 18, 2025	European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting	Crucial update on eurozone rates and new ECB projections, with implications for EUR moves, European bond yields and global equity rotation.

Key Points

• CME Group Outage: CME Group halted trading across major futures and options markets after a data-center cooling failure, briefly freezing key benchmarks in oil, Treasurys and equity indices and highlighting operational risk in core market infrastructure.
• U.S. Drug Price Cuts: Newly negotiated Medicare prices under the Inflation Reduction Act will sharply cut U.S. list prices for blockbuster drugs such as Ozempic, increasing long-term U.S. margin pressure for Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, GSK and other global pharma names.
• Baidu’s AI Chip Push: Baidu’s Kunlunxin unit is emerging as a leading domestic AI chip supplier in China, positioned to capture strong, supply-constrained demand as U.S. curbs limit access to Nvidia GPUs.
• Trump’s Immigration Pledge: President Trump’s pledge to “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries” and restrict benefits for noncitizens adds a new layer of U.S. policy uncertainty around immigration, labor supply and social stability.

CME Outage Halts Key Futures Markets, Tests Resilience of Global Price Discovery

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange temporarily halted trading across its Globex futures and options markets, FX platform EBS and BMD contracts after a cooling issue at a CyrusOne data center, freezing prices in benchmarks such as WTI crude, U.S. 10-year Treasurys and S&P 500 futures.

The disruption, hitting during a thin post-holiday session, is affecting Asian and European traders most and may delay visibility on moves in affected contracts until systems are fully restored.

While similar outages have occurred in the past, the episode highlights operational risk in increasingly concentrated market infrastructure and the potential for short-term distortions in liquidity and price discovery.

U.S. Drug Price Cuts Sharpen Focus on European Pharma’s U.S. Exposure

Medicare’s latest round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act is forcing European pharma majors to confront mounting U.S. pricing pressure just as the Trump administration pushes further with “Most Favored Nation” policies.

From 2027, Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic will see a 71% list-price cut for Medicare, while AstraZeneca’s Calquence and GSK’s Trelegy and Breo face 40%–83% discounts, trimming federal spending by an estimated 36%.

With 40%–55% of these firms’ sales tied to the U.S., investors must weigh margin compression against potential volume upside, particularly in fast-growing obesity drugs where lower prices could unlock broader access.

Baidu’s Kunlun Chips Move to the Center of China’s AI Push

Baidu is rapidly emerging as a key domestic AI chip player as Beijing looks to fill the gap left by U.S. curbs on Nvidia’s most advanced GPUs.

Through its Kunlunxin unit, Baidu is rolling out a five-year roadmap for Kunlun AI chips, already used alongside Nvidia hardware in its data centers to power ERNIE models and sold to third-party data center and telecom customers.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan see Kunlun as one of China’s best-positioned AI chip platforms, with sales forecast to grow sixfold to around $1.1 billion by 2026 and potential valuation estimates near $28 billion, anchored by strong, supply-constrained domestic AI demand.

Trump Immigration Pledge Raises Policy Uncertainty After DC Shooting

President Trump signaled a sharper turn in U.S. immigration policy, vowing on social media to “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries,” cancel federal benefits for noncitizens and broaden grounds for deportation, following a shooting near the White House involving an Afghan national.

The administration has already suspended immigration requests involving Afghan nationals and previously imposed a travel ban covering 19 countries.

While details and legal feasibility remain unclear, the escalation underscores rising policy risk around migration and labor flows, with potential implications for sectors reliant on immigrant workers and for broader perceptions of U.S. political and social stability.

Conclusion

Friday’s developments highlight how market plumbing, policy and technology are intersecting to reshape the investment landscape.

The CME outage is a reminder that operational risk in core trading infrastructure can briefly disrupt price discovery, even in otherwise calm conditions.

In healthcare, U.S. Medicare price cuts and “Most Favored Nation” ambitions sharpen the focus on U.S. earnings reliance for European pharma.

In China, Baidu’s Kunlun chips show how export controls are accelerating domestic AI ecosystems rather than stopping them.

Finally, sharp shifts in U.S. immigration rhetoric add another layer of uncertainty around future labor supply and political risk premia.

Investment Insights

• Pharma: Volume vs. Price in the U.S.: Medicare cuts and “Most Favored Nation” ideas confirm that high U.S. drug prices are under structural pressure.
• China AI: Hardware Shift, Not Demand Loss: Baidu’s rise in AI chips underlines that U.S. export controls are redirecting, rather than eliminating, Chinese AI investment. Exposure to AI should consider not just global leaders, but also regional ecosystems that are being forced to localize hardware and infrastructure.
• Immigration and Growth: Harsher U.S. immigration rhetoric raises questions for future labor supply, particularly in sectors reliant on foreign workers. Over time, tighter migration could support higher wage pressures and alter where global companies choose to base labor-intensive operations.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 28, 2025	Canada Q3 GDP	Key update on Canadian growth that feeds into North American demand assumptions, commodity exposure and Bank of Canada policy expectations.
December 1, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (November)	High-frequency gauge of U.S. factory activity and new orders, closely watched for signs of cyclical momentum and confirmation of a soft-landing narrative.
December 2, 2025	Eurozone CPI (Flash, November) & Unemployment Rate (October)	Core inputs for ECB policy: inflation and labour slack together shape the outlook for further easing and the euro area’s real-rate environment.
December 2, 2025	U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (October)	Key barometer of U.S. labour-market tightness; a cooling openings rate would support the case for a more dovish Fed path in 2026.
December 3, 2025	U.S. ADP Employment Report & ISM Services PMI (November)	Early read on U.S. jobs and services-sector strength ahead of the official payrolls report, important for validating or challenging current Fed rate-cut expectations.

Key Points

• China’s Industrial Profits Fall: Industrial profits in China dropped 5.5% year on year in October, the steepest decline in five months, highlighting economic fragility, weak domestic demand, and deflationary pressure.
• AI Could Replace 11.7% of U.S. Wages: MIT’s “Iceberg Index” study shows AI can already replace tasks worth 11.7% of U.S. wages, affecting routine jobs across multiple sectors—not just tech.
• Markets Eye December Fed Cut: Global stocks are up amid an 85% market-implied probability of a December Fed rate cut, sustaining risk appetite despite intervention-sensitive yen levels.
• China Shifts AI Training Abroad: Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance are moving AI training overseas to avoid U.S. chip curbs, revealing the reach of export controls and China’s strategic adaptation.

China’s Industrial Profits Slide as Growth Momentum Weakens

China’s industrial profits fell 5.5% year on year in October, the sharpest drop in five months and a reversal from double-digit gains in August and September, as renewed U.S. trade tensions and softer domestic demand weighed on margins. Profit growth for the first ten months slowed to 1.9%, with mining earnings down nearly 28% even as manufacturing and utilities posted mid-single-digit gains, underscoring diverging sector dynamics. Combined with a sub-50 manufacturing PMI, slowing retail sales and weak investment, the data reinforce a picture of an economy flirting with mild recession and lingering deflation risks, even as Beijing aims to hold GDP growth near 5%.

MIT Model Maps AI Exposure to 11.7% of U.S. Wages

A new MIT study using the “Iceberg Index” estimates that current AI systems could already replace tasks equivalent to 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, or about $1.2 trillion in wages, with exposure extending far beyond tech into routine roles in finance, HR, logistics and office administration. By simulating 151 million workers and 32,000 skills across 923 occupations and 3,000 counties, the model offers policymakers a granular view of where disruption may emerge and how reskilling dollars might be targeted. Early adopters such as Tennessee, North Carolina and Utah are using the tool to test training and investment strategies before committing large-scale funding.

Stocks Edge Higher as Markets Price in December Fed Cut and Watch Yen Risks

Global equities gained modestly in thin holiday trading, supported by rising confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, with futures now implying around an 85% probability. European and Asian indices traded higher as tech and defense shares offset weaker healthcare names, while investors largely looked past earlier concerns about an AI bubble. The dollar softened against most majors but the yen remained in focus near 156 per dollar, with markets on alert for possible intervention and a potential Bank of Japan rate hike. With U.S. data distorted by the recent shutdown, investors are leaning heavily on Fed commentary, even as bitcoin rebounds above $90,000 and gold eases slightly.

Chinese Tech Groups Shift AI Training Offshore to Sidestep U.S. Chip Curbs

Chinese internet giants including Alibaba and ByteDance are reportedly training their latest large language models in Southeast Asian data centers to access Nvidia GPUs and work around U.S. export restrictions. According to the Financial Times, offshore training via leased, non-Chinese facilities has increased since Washington tightened rules on Nvidia’s H20 chip in April, highlighting how firms are re-routing AI workloads rather than slowing buildouts. DeepSeek, which stockpiled Nvidia chips before the bans, remains an exception, training domestically and collaborating with Huawei-led chipmakers, underscoring a dual track of overseas dependence and accelerated efforts to develop competitive Chinese AI hardware.

Conclusion

Global markets remain supported by rate-cut expectations, but today’s data point to underlying structural shifts and vulnerabilities. China’s profit slump and lingering deflation risk highlight a growth model under pressure just as its tech giants move AI training offshore to work around U.S. chip controls. In the U.S., MIT’s Iceberg Index underlines how current AI can already reshape a meaningful share of wages, raising medium-term questions for employment, productivity and policy. Against this backdrop, an anticipated Fed cut is a tailwind, but not a cure-all: investors need to distinguish between cyclical relief rallies and deeper regime changes globally ahead.

Investment Insights

• China Risk Is Shifting, Not Disappearing: Slower industrial profits and deflation pressure suggest China remains a drag on global growth, even as some sectors (manufacturing, utilities, autos, AI) hold up better.
• AI Is an Economic Force, Not Just a Market Story: If current AI can already touch more than 10% of U.S. wages, investors should think in terms of winners in productivity (software, automation, training) and potential pressure points in routine white-collar roles.
• Rate Cuts Help, but Don’t Solve Structural Issues: A likely Fed cut is supportive for risk assets in the short term, but it does not change longer-term questions around growth, demographics and technology-driven disruption. Balancing cyclical opportunities with structural themes remains key.
• Geopolitics Is Embedded in AI Supply Chains: Chinese firms moving AI training overseas to access Nvidia chips show how regulation and export controls are now part of the technology investment landscape. Investors should factor policy risk into AI hardware and cloud exposures.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 28, 2025	Canada Q3 GDP	Key update on Canadian growth that feeds into North American demand assumptions, commodity exposure and Bank of Canada policy expectations.
December 1, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (November)	High-frequency gauge of U.S. factory activity and new orders, closely watched for signs of cyclical momentum and confirmation of a soft-landing narrative.
December 2, 2025	Eurozone CPI (Flash, November) & Unemployment Rate (October)	Core inputs for ECB policy: inflation and labour slack together shape the outlook for further easing and the euro area’s real-rate environment.
December 2, 2025	U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (October)	Key barometer of U.S. labour-market tightness; a cooling openings rate would support the case for a more dovish Fed path in 2026.
December 3, 2025	U.S. ADP Employment Report & ISM Services PMI (November)	Early read on U.S. jobs and services-sector strength ahead of the official payrolls report, important for validating or challenging current Fed rate-cut expectations.