Key Points

• Shutdown Deal Lift: U.S. stocks rebounded (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) as the Senate advanced a plan to end the record shutdown, reviving risk appetite led by AI names.
• Russia’s Rare Earths Push: Moscow ordered a roadmap to scale rare earth mining, but processing hurdles and geopolitical limits mean China likely remains the key buyer.
• Saudi Price Move: Aramco trimmed its December Asia crude price to stay competitive, positioning to capture demand if Russian supplies to China/India ebb.
• Copper Goes “Critical”: The U.S. added copper to its critical list; higher local prices have pulled large volumes stateside, building a de-facto stockpile and keeping domestic prices firm.

Wall Street Rallies as Shutdown Deal Progress Lifts Risk Appetite

U.S. stocks advanced on signs Congress is nearing an agreement to end the record shutdown: Dow +0.81% (47,368), S&P 500 +1.54% (6,832), Nasdaq +2.27% (23,527).

AI leaders rebounded: Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft—after last week’s valuation-driven slide, with sentiment buoyed by a procedural Senate vote to move a funding bill forward.

The prospective deal would reopen the government into January, though key economic reports, including CPI and PPI, remain delayed, and consumer sentiment is near multi-year lows.

Near term, the AI trade faces a fresh catalyst with AMD’s analyst day, a barometer for earnings momentum after a volatile stretch.

Russia Maps Rare Earths Push, But Processing Bottlenecks Loom

President Putin ordered a Dec. 1 roadmap to scale rare earth extraction as Moscow seeks a bigger role in critical minerals dominated by China.

Russia holds the fifth-largest known reserves (~3.8Mt per USGS) but produced just ~2,500 tons in 2024, and the value chain hinges on processing and separation where China controls ~70%.

Sanctions, war-related risk, and opaque deposit quality constrain Western tie-ups, pointing near term to China as the likely offtake route.

Strategic takeaway: any Russian ramp could tighten raw supply but won’t quickly alter global refining dynamics; downstream pricing power remains with established processors.

Saudi Eases OSP to Defend Asia Share, Not Start a Price War

Saudi Aramco cut December’s Arab Light OSP for Asia by $1.20 to +$1/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, an 11-month low and the lower end of refiner forecasts, aiming to keep barrels competitive rather than grab market share.

With cash Dubai premiums and Brent, Dubai spreads falling (Brent recently at a rare discount), Brent-linked crudes from West Africa/LatAm/US have cheapened relative to Dubai-priced grades.

The calibrated move helps Aramco stay in Asian refinery slates and positions it to fill any gaps if U.S. sanctions curb Russian flows to China/India; early Kpler estimates show China lifting Saudi intake in November as Russian arrivals slip.

Copper Named ‘Critical’ as U.S. Quietly Builds a Big Buffer

The U.S. added copper to its list of minerals vital for the economy and national security.

Thanks to higher domestic prices than overseas, huge amounts of metal have been shipped into the country, creating a large, privately held stockpile; now one of the world’s biggest.

That flow is still growing as traders expect future import limits or tariffs. In plain terms: the U.S. is shoring up supply for the energy transition and electrification, but the build-up also reflects tight global markets.

If policies tighten further in 2026–27, the stockpile could grow, supporting availability but keeping U.S. prices relatively firm.

Conclusion

Markets regained footing as Washington inched toward ending the record shutdown, lifting equities and risk appetite, led by AI bellwethers.

Beneath the bounce, strategic resource shifts dominated:

Russia mapped a late push into rare earths but remains constrained by processing gaps and geopolitics; Saudi Arabia nudged crude pricing lower to defend Asian share amid uncertainty over Russian flows; and the U.S. quietly amassed copper after naming it a critical mineral.

The near-term setup favors selective risk-taking while policy paths and supply chains evolve.

Investment Insights

• U.S. shutdown progress: Use the bounce to upgrade quality; favor cash-generative leaders while policy headlines remain the main swing factor.
• Russia rare earths: Near-term impact is limited, processing and geopolitics keep pricing power with existing supply chains; avoid overestimating new Russian volumes.
• Saudi crude pricing: Expect steady, competitive barrels rather than a price war; refiners with flexible sourcing and energy firms with low costs are better positioned.
• Copper ‘critical’ status: A growing U.S. stockpile supports supply security but may keep domestic prices firm; consider beneficiaries across mining, recycling, and grid build-out.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 10, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 Meeting)	Details the Fed’s debate on growth, inflation, and the bar for future cuts—key for rates, USD, and risk assets.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation print driving near-term Fed expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 14, 2025	U.S. Retail Sales (October)	Real-time read on consumer demand heading into the holiday season; key for growth and earnings tone.
November 14, 2025	U.S. PPI (October)	Upstream price pressures that can foreshadow CPI/PCE trends and margin risk.
November 19, 2025	UK CPI (October) & Eurozone HICP Full Release (October)	Key Europe inflation updates shaping BoE/ECB paths and euro/sterling direction.

Sources: Federal Reserve events calendar; Investing.com CPI schedule; U.S. Census retail sales release schedule; BLS PPI schedule/FRED; Eurostat and UK ONS release calendars.

Key Points

• China Inflation Mixed: CPI turned positive at 0.2% YoY while PPI fell 2.1% YoY, signaling easing consumer deflation but persistent industrial disinflation amid weak manufacturing and exports.
• Asia Rebound Led by Korea: Kospi +3.0% to 4,073 as banks/insurers rallied; BOJ minutes signaled conditions for a near-term hike are “almost” met, lifting JGB yields toward ~1.7%.
• Shutdown Deal Boosts Risk: Global equities advanced on progress to end the 40-day U.S. government shutdown; yields firmed and the dollar steadied as markets weighed December Fed-cut odds.
• Nuclear Buildout vs. Waste Gap: U.S. plans to quadruple nuclear output (large reactors and SMRs) face unresolved long-term waste storage, leaving taxpayers with mounting interim costs.

China CPI Turns Positive, PPI Slump Persists as Growth Signals Diverge

China’s inflation pulse firmed in October with CPI up 0.2% YoY (vs. 0.0% expected) and flat-to-modest gains MoM, while producer prices fell 2.1% YoY—extending a three-year factory-gate slump. The data underscore a mixed backdrop: holiday demand and policy support are lifting headline prices and industrial profits, yet manufacturing contracted to a six-month low and exports unexpectedly fell, including a 25% drop to the U.S. Authorities continue to push domestic consumption and “effective investment,” and a recent U.S.–China trade truce could ease external headwinds, but sustained disinflation in industry points to ongoing overcapacity and soft private demand.

Asia Rebounds as Kospi Leads; BOJ Signals Tightening Bias

Asia-Pacific equities rose after last week’s AI-driven selloff, with South Korea’s Kospi up 3.0% to 4,073.24 led by banks and insurers (Samsung +2.8%, SK Hynix +4.5%). Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.26% (Topix +0.56%) as 10-year JGB yields touched ~1.7% after BOJ minutes suggested conditions for a near-term rate hike are “almost” met. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.54%, China’s CSI 300 edged +0.17%, Australia’s ASX 200 +0.75%, and India’s Nifty/Sensex added ~0.5%. Sentiment was aided by China inflation beating expectations (CPI +0.2% YoY; PPI –2.1%), while U.S. macro signals remained mixed into an ongoing shutdown impasse.

Global Equities Rise as U.S. Shutdown Deal Progress Lifts Risk Appetite

Global stocks advanced on signs Washington is moving to end the 40-day government shutdown: Nasdaq futures +1.27%, S&P 500 futures +0.74%, with EUROSTOXX 50 and DAX futures up ~1.5%. Asia followed higher (MSCI Asia ex-Japan +1.36%, Nikkei +1.33%) as China’s CPI turned positive and PPI deflation eased. U.S. Treasury yields firmed (10Y ~4.14%) and the dollar steadied, with markets pricing roughly a 63% chance of a December Fed cut while officials signal caution. Oil ticked up and gold gained. Bottom line: a prospective deal boosts confidence and liquidity, but economists warn the shutdown’s growth dent won’t be quickly reversed.

U.S. Nuclear Buildout Accelerates, But Waste Solution Remains Elusive

A planned nuclear renaissance; driven by surging power demand from AI data centers and reshoring, faces the unresolved challenge of long-term waste disposal. The administration aims to quadruple output via large reactors and SMRs, with an $80B Westinghouse build program and multiple restarts/SMR projects in the pipeline. Yet over 95,000 metric tons of spent fuel remain at 79 sites and the DOE lacks a permanent repository, costing taxpayers up to $800M annually; Yucca Mountain is dormant while alternatives from deep repositories to reprocessing and boreholes compete amid skepticism. Investor lens: long runway for nuclear supply, but policy, permitting, and waste logistics are key execution risks.

Conclusion

Markets opened the week on firmer footing as Asia rebounded, led by Korea, while China’s inflation mix (CPI back to +0.2% YoY, PPI –2.1%) signaled easing consumer deflation but persistent industrial slack. Hopes for a U.S. shutdown deal improved risk appetite and steadied the dollar, though policy timing on Fed cuts remains data-dependent. Structurally, Washington’s push to scale nuclear capacity highlights a multi-year capex theme tempered by unresolved waste logistics and permitting risk. Near term, we favor quality balance sheets and earnings visibility over multiple expansion; watch BOJ normalization signals, incoming U.S. inflation and labor prints, and any incremental Chinese demand support.

Investment Insights

• China inflation mix: Maintain selective exposure; favor firms with pricing power and domestic demand tailwinds; be cautious on industries facing persistent producer-price pressure.
• Asia rebound & BOJ tilt: Position for gradual policy normalization in Japan and cyclical recoveries in Korea; prioritize balance-sheet strength over momentum.
• Shutdown progress: A potential deal supports risk appetite but not lost output; stick with companies resilient to policy noise and dependent on underlying demand, not stimulus.
• Nuclear theme: Treat the buildout as a long-duration opportunity; focus on suppliers and utilities with clear project visibility while factoring in permitting and waste-management risks.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 10, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 Meeting)	Details the Fed’s debate on growth, inflation, and the bar for future cuts—key for rates, USD, and risk assets.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation print driving near-term Fed expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 14, 2025	U.S. Retail Sales (October)	Real-time read on consumer demand heading into the holiday season; key for growth and earnings tone.
November 14, 2025	U.S. PPI (October)	Upstream price pressures that can foreshadow CPI/PCE trends and margin risk.
November 19, 2025	UK CPI (October) & Eurozone HICP Full Release (October)	Key Europe inflation updates shaping BoE/ECB paths and euro/sterling direction.

Sources: Federal Reserve events calendar; Investing.com CPI schedule; U.S. Census retail sales release schedule; BLS PPI schedule/FRED; Eurostat and UK ONS release calendars.

Key Points

• Volatility: DBS CEO Tan Su Shan flagged stretched U.S. valuations and concentration in mega-cap tech, urging broader diversification with Singapore positioned as a stable hub.
• China Trade Surprise: October exports fell 1.1% YoY with U.S.-bound shipments down 25%; imports rose 1%, missing forecasts—signaling softer external demand and weak domestic momentum.
• U.S.–India Thaw Watch: Trump said India has “largely” reduced Russian oil purchases and hinted at a 2026 visit; talk of lower U.S. tariffs faces hurdles on energy and agriculture.
• Asia Risk-Off: Regional equities fell as AI-heavy names retreated and China’s trade miss weighed; Japan and Korea led declines while India was more resilient.

DBS Chief Flags Volatility, Urges Diversification Beyond U.S. Tech Leaders

DBS CEO Tan Su Shan warned that stretched U.S. equity valuations—especially the “Magnificent Seven”—and concentration risk point to continued swings across stocks, rates, and FX, echoing recent cautions from Wall Street chiefs and global policymakers about a potential 10%–20% pullback.

While calling a correction “healthy,” Tan advised investors to diversify exposures rather than time the market, highlighting Singapore’s rule of law, transparent markets, and political stability as a regional hub for capital.

Investor consideration: reduce reliance on crowded AI winners, spread risk across geographies and sectors, and position for choppier conditions without abandoning long-term allocations.

China’s Export Pulse Slips as U.S.-Bound Shipments Drop 25%

China’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% YoY in October (vs. +3% expected) after September’s 8.3% surge, while imports rose a softer-than-forecast 1%, underscoring weak domestic demand and a prolonged manufacturing contraction.

U.S.-bound exports slid 25%—the seventh straight double-digit decline—despite a recent tariff truce that eased effective duties, with firms redirecting sales to ASEAN, the EU and Africa.

Year to date, overall exports are up 5.3% even as bilateral trade with the U.S. shrinks; economists expect Beijing to lean more on fiscal support to stabilize growth.

Investor takeaway: external momentum is cooling, shifting focus to China’s policy impulse and domestic demand.

Trump Signals Thaw With India, Claims Russian Oil Buys Have Slowed

President Trump said trade talks with New Delhi are progressing and hinted at a 2026 visit if invited by Prime Minister Modi, asserting India has “largely stopped” importing Russian crude.

Analysts remain skeptical that India can fully phase out discounted Russian barrels, even as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil take effect Nov. 21 and Asian refiners trim purchases.

Policy watchers see scope for a tariff cut on Indian goods to ~20% from 50% if a deal is reached, though sticking points include energy ties and agriculture.

Investor angle: a partial de-escalation could support India-U.S. supply chains and sentiment.

Asia Stocks Slide as AI Rout Resumes; China Trade Miss Deepens Growth Worries

Asia-Pacific equities tracked Wall Street lower as renewed selling in AI leaders pulled regional benchmarks into the red—Nikkei –1.19% (SoftBank –6.9%, Advantest –5.5%), Kospi –1.81% (Samsung –1.3%, SK Hynix –2.2%), Hang Seng –0.92%, CSI 300 –0.31%, and Australia’s ASX 200 –0.66%.

Fresh China data compounded risk aversion: October exports fell 1.1% YoY and imports rose 1.0%, both missing forecasts and reinforcing weak domestic demand.

India outperformed marginally (Nifty +0.11%) despite pressure in telecoms after Singtel trimmed its Airtel stake. U.S. futures stabilized after Thursday’s tech-led drop, but sentiment remains valuation-sensitive.

Conclusion

Markets are navigating a more fragile tape: DBS’s caution on stretched U.S. mega-cap valuations and concentration risk aligns with renewed pressure on AI leaders, while China’s surprise export contraction underscores soft external demand and uneven domestic recovery.

Geopolitically, a tentative U.S.–India thaw could trim tariffs and support supply-chain diversification, but energy and agriculture frictions persist.

Near term, expect choppy, valuation-sensitive trading; prioritize diversified exposure, strong balance sheets, and visible cash flows.

Watch upcoming U.S. labor/inflation prints and any China policy impulse for direction. Use volatility to upgrade quality and avoid crowded trades until earnings durability, policy clarity, and growth signals improve.

Investment Insights

• Volatility & concentration: Reduce reliance on mega-cap U.S. tech; broaden exposure by region and sector, emphasizing balance-sheet strength.
• China trade softness: Favor companies with diversified demand and pricing power; be cautious on names tied to China’s export cycle.
• U.S.–India backdrop: Supply-chain realignment supports India-linked themes, but tariff and energy policy outcomes remain key swing factors.
• AI-led risk-off: Keep valuation discipline in AI beneficiaries; prioritize firms with clear earnings visibility over momentum.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 6, 2025	Bank of England Rate Decision (MPC)	Sets U.K. policy path into year-end; implications for gilts, sterling, and European rate expectations.
November 7, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (October)	First read on labor momentum; key for growth outlook, risk appetite, and rate-cut timing.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation gauge shaping Fed policy expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 19, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 meeting)	Reveals committee debate on inflation risks and the bar for future easing.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE, October)	Fed’s preferred inflation metric and a pulse on consumer demand heading into the holidays.

Sources: Bank of England calendar; U.S. BLS CPI and Employment release schedules; Federal Reserve events calendar; BEA release schedule.

Key Points

• Qualcomm Beat & Upbeat Outlook: Stronger results and guidance on resilient smartphone demand and growing auto chips, with longer-dated AI ambitions in focus.
• U.S. Flight Cuts Amid Shutdown: Transportation Department to reduce capacity by 10% at 40 major airports, pressuring domestic schedules and traveler demand until funding impasse eases.
• Japan Automakers Pivot to India: Toyota, Honda, and Suzuki ramp investment to use India as a manufacturing/export hub, reducing exposure to China and leveraging government incentives.
• Asia Equities Rebound on U.S. Data: Better U.S. services and payrolls figures steadied sentiment, trimming Fed-cut bets and lifting regional benchmarks after the prior session’s selloff.

Qualcomm Tops Expectations and Raises Outlook on Phone and Auto Strength

Qualcomm reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results and issued an upbeat sales and profit forecast, helped by firmer demand for premium smartphones and growing automotive chip orders.

While a tax expense led to a net loss, core performance improved from a year ago and all major operating segments met or beat internal targets.

The company is pushing beyond phones—expanding in PCs, mixed-reality devices, and data-center AI—with new accelerator chips slated for 2026–2027.

Management signaled confidence despite the eventual loss of Apple’s modem business, positioning Qualcomm to participate more broadly in the next wave of AI-enabled devices.

U.S. Orders 10% Flight Cuts at Major Airports Amid Record Shutdown

The Transportation Department will mandate a 10% reduction in flights at 40 major U.S. airports, citing air traffic control safety risks as the government shutdown reaches day 36.

Capacity limits—starting near 4% and rising to 10% next week—will spare international flights but hit domestic schedules at hubs such as New York, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Dallas.

Airlines are trimming regional and non-hub routes, offering refunds, and warning of delays as the FAA, already short of controllers, signals further restrictions if staffing pressures persist.

Airline shares slipped about 1% in after-hours trading as carriers brace for weaker bookings.

Japan’s Automakers Pick India as Export Base, Trim China Exposure

Toyota, Honda and Suzuki are redirecting investment to India, announcing roughly $11B in new capacity and models to use the country as a production and export hub amid rising costs, price wars and policy friction in China.

India’s lower costs, government incentives and limited Chinese EV competition make it attractive, with Toyota targeting ~10% market share and adding plants that lift capacity above 1 million units, Honda planning India-built EV exports from 2027, and Suzuki expanding toward 4 million units.

The pivot supports India’s export growth but execution risks remain given fierce domestic competition and past foreign exits.

Asia Stocks Rebound as U.S. Data Tempers Valuation Fears

Asian equities bounced after upbeat U.S. services and private payrolls data steadied sentiment, reversing part of Wednesday’s AI-led selloff.

Japan’s Nikkei rose ~1.4% and Korea’s Kospi gained ~0.8%, while MSCI Asia ex-Japan advanced ~0.8%.

Firmer macro prints pushed back odds of a December Fed cut, holding Treasury yields higher and keeping the dollar near a five-month peak.

China’s market reclaimed key levels on tech self-sufficiency hopes, with strategists eyeing beneficiaries across the industrial supply chain.

Futures in the U.S. and Europe eased slightly, and commodities were mixed, as investors favor earnings resilience over multiple expansion.

Conclusion

Markets are digesting mixed signals: resilient U.S. tech earnings (Qualcomm) and firmer macro data supported an Asia rebound, yet policy risk looms as Washington’s shutdown forces flight cuts that could dent travel demand and consumer sentiment.

Strategic supply-chain shifts continue, with Japanese automakers elevating India as a production and export base, reinforcing the region’s multi-year capex story.

Near term, higher yields and a stronger dollar argue for selectivity; prioritize balance-sheet quality and earnings visibility while avoiding crowded trades.

Medium term, watch U.S. labor and inflation prints for timing of policy easing and monitor shutdown negotiations for spillover effects on markets.

Investment Insights

• Qualcomm: Favor firms translating AI and device upgrades into steady cash flows; monitor execution on diversification beyond handsets.
• U.S. Flight Cuts: Expect near-term travel and logistics friction; prioritize companies with flexible operations and strong liquidity.
• Japan → India Pivot: Supply-chain shifts strengthen India’s role—consider long-run beneficiaries across autos, components, and infrastructure.
• Asia Rebound on U.S. Data: Maintain valuation discipline; emphasize earnings resilience while policy timing on rate cuts remains uncertain.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 6, 2025	Bank of England Rate Decision (MPC)	Sets U.K. policy path into year-end; implications for gilts, sterling, and European rate expectations.
November 7, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (October)	First read on labor momentum; key for growth outlook, risk appetite, and rate-cut timing.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation gauge shaping Fed policy expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 19, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 meeting)	Reveals committee debate on inflation risks and the bar for future easing.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE, October)	Fed’s preferred inflation metric and a pulse on consumer demand heading into the holidays.

Sources: Bank of England calendar; U.S. BLS CPI and Employment release schedules; Federal Reserve events calendar; BEA release schedule.

Key Points

• Pullback Risk: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley flag a 10%–20% correction over 12–24 months after AI-led highs, advising investors to stay invested while tilting toward Asia’s multi-year reform stories.
• Asia Tech Selloff: Nikkei –2.5% (50,212) and Kospi ~–2% (4,004) as AI leaders slump; Palantir –8% despite beats underscores stretched valuations with S&P 500 forward P/E >23.
• Novo Nordisk Reset: Guidance narrowed to sales +8–11% and OP +4–7% as pricing and competition bite; Wegovy +18% to DKK 20.35bn; pursuing Metsera with an offer up to $10bn to bolster pipeline.
• SoftBank Slide: SoftBank –10% (~$23bn mkt-cap hit) leads regional AI drawdown; Arm –4.7%, Samsung/TSMC lower, stoking bubble talk even as some see a temporary shakeout.

Wall Street Chiefs Flag Pullback Risk Amid AI-Led Highs

Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon and Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick warned that a 10%–20% equity drawdown over the next 12–24 months would be a normal reset after a relentless AI-fueled rally, urging investors to stay invested while reassessing allocations. Their remarks echo IMF concerns about stretched valuations and rising odds of a “sharp correction.” Bright spots remain in Asia—Japan’s governance reforms, India’s infrastructure build-out, and selective opportunities in China/Hong Kong across AI, EVs, and biotech—supporting a barbell approach: keep core exposure, stress-test for a 15% shock, and rotate incrementally from crowded winners into quality cyclicals and Asia’s multi-year reform stories.

Asia Tech-Led Selloff Knocks Nikkei, Kospi; AI Valuation Jitters Bite

Asian equities fell as investors rotated out of AI leaders: Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered from a near-5% intraday slump to close down 2.5% at 50,212, with SoftBank off ~10%+, while South Korea’s Kospi slid 2.9% to 4,004 amid losses in Samsung and SK Hynix. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was roughly flat near 25,935. The pullback followed a U.S. tech dip and an 8% drop in Palantir despite strong results, stoking concern that AI-driven multiples have outrun fundamentals. With regional FX (won) softening and forward P/Es stretched, the setup favors profit-taking in crowded AI trades and a selective tilt toward balance-sheet strength and cash-flow visibility until volatility fades.

Novo Nordisk Trims GLP-1 Outlook as Pricing, Competition Tighten

Novo Nordisk narrowed 2025 guidance again, cutting expected sales growth to 8–11% (from 8–14%) and operating profit growth to 4–7% (from 4–10%) despite solid demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, underscoring mounting pricing pressure and intensifying competition in obesity care. Q3 net profit was DKK 20bn (~$3.1bn) in line with estimates; Wegovy sales rose 18% to DKK 20.35bn but missed forecasts. Shares swung from –4.5% at the open to +1.7% intraday, remaining ~45% lower year-to-date. Management highlighted U.S. pricing headwinds, trial disappointments, and leadership noise, while doubling down on pipeline scale via a bidding war for Metsera—raising its offer to up to $10bn even as Pfizer challenges the deal in court. Investor take: GLP-1 secular growth remains intact, but valuation support hinges on margin durability and M&A execution. Expect multiple compression risk until pricing clarity improves and late-stage assets de-risk.

SoftBank Leads AI Rout as Valuation Angst Ripples Across Asia

SoftBank sank 10% (≈$23bn wiped) amid a broad AI-led selloff, with Arm off ~4.7% overnight and regional chip names weaker—Samsung –4.1%, SK Hynix –1.2%, TSMC –3.0%—as investors questioned stretched multiples after Palantir’s 8% drop despite beats. The AI trade’s crowding has pushed the S&P 500’s forward P/E above 23 (near 2000 levels), reviving bubble analogies. Market voices are split between warnings (Jared Bernstein, Michael Burry’s shorts in AI leaders) and calls that the shakeout is temporary (Dan Ives). Investor take: Expect elevated volatility and correlation risk around AI bellwethers. Prioritize balance-sheet strength and earnings visibility, fade the most extended names, and use weakness to add to secular winners only where cash-flow paths are credible.

Conclusion

Markets are confronting the first meaningful test of an AI-driven advance: leadership names wobbled, Asia turned risk-off, and top Wall Street CEOs openly framed a 10%–20% correction as a healthy reset. Beneath the volatility, select long-duration themes remain intact—Japan’s governance reforms, India’s infrastructure cycle, and credible AI cash-flow stories—while stretched multiples and pricing pressure (e.g., GLP-1s) argue for discipline. Liquidity management and downside protection remain priorities into year-end positioning.

Investment Insights

• Market Correction: Maintain long-term positioning while strengthening diversification and downside protection.
• Asia Tech Selloff: Treat AI-exposed equities with valuation discipline, favoring demonstrable earnings resilience.
• Novo Nordisk Guidance Trim: In healthcare, prioritize diversified pipelines and pricing power over headline growth.
• SoftBank-Led AI Pullback: Mitigate concentration risk by balancing secular AI exposure with quality and valuation rigor.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 6, 2025	Bank of England Rate Decision (MPC)	Sets U.K. policy path into year-end; implications for gilts, sterling, and European rate expectations.
November 7, 2025	U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (October)	First read on labor momentum; key for growth outlook, risk appetite, and rate-cut timing.
November 13, 2025	U.S. CPI (October)	Primary inflation gauge shaping Fed policy expectations and bond-equity correlations.
November 19, 2025	FOMC Minutes (Oct 28–29 meeting)	Reveals committee debate on inflation risks and the bar for future easing.
November 26, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE, October)	Fed’s preferred inflation metric and a pulse on consumer demand heading into the holidays.

Sources: Bank of England calendar; U.S. BLS CPI and Employment release schedules; Federal Reserve events calendar; BEA release schedule.

Key Points

• OpenAI inks $38B AWS pact, Amazon hits record: OpenAI shifts compute to AWS’s Nvidia GPUs, diversifying beyond Microsoft; AMZN rallies as the deal underscores hyperscaler capex momentum and AI infrastructure scarcity.
• Aramco beats on higher output amid soft crude: Q3 adjusted net income rose to ~$28B; OPEC+ plans modest December hike while pausing further increases in Q1, keeping supply guidance in focus against new Russia sanctions.
• Palantir raises outlook on AI demand: Q3 revenue topped forecasts with U.S. government sales up 52%; FY guidance and FCF outlook increased, though valuation risk remains after a 170% YTD share surge.
• Asia equities retreat on profit-taking, Fed ambiguity: Nikkei, Kospi and CSI 300 pull back from highs as mixed Fed signals and weak ISM data curb December cut odds; dollar spikes then fades, oil and gold edge lower.

Amazon Rallies to Record on $38B OpenAI–AWS Compute Pact

Amazon shares closed 4% higher at a record after OpenAI signed a $38 billion multi-year capacity deal with Amazon Web Services, immediately tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs and securing room to scale through 2026.

The agreement marks OpenAI’s biggest step away from Microsoft’s once-exclusive cloud, following the lapse of Microsoft’s preferential status and parallel cloud tie-ups with Oracle and Google.

For AWS, the win bolsters momentum after >20% YoY growth last quarter and counters faster expansion at Azure and Google Cloud.

The stock’s two-day gain of 14%—its best since November 2022—reflects investor confidence that AI infrastructure demand will drive high-margin cloud revenue.

Aramco Edges Past Estimates as Volume Gains Offset Softer Crude

Saudi Aramco reported Q3 adjusted net income of 104.92 billion riyals ($27.98 billion), narrowly up 0.9% and ahead of the 98.47 billion consensus, as higher output partially offset a weaker price backdrop (WTI and Brent down ~16% and ~12% YTD through September).

Revenue reached 418.16 billion riyals, free cash flow rose to $23.6 billion, and net debt eased to 114.33 billion riyals; the board affirmed a $21.1 billion base dividend plus $0.2 billion performance payout for Q4.

The print lands amid OPEC+’s modest December uplift (+137 kb/d) and a planned pause in Q1 hikes, while new U.S. sanctions on Russian majors complicate supply.

Strategically, Aramco lifted its Petro Rabigh stake to ~60% and added a minority position in AI firm HUMAIN, signaling continued downstream and digital expansion.

Palantir Surges Past Q3 Estimates, Lifts Guidance on AI Momentum

Palantir beat third-quarter forecasts with adjusted EPS of $0.21 versus $0.17 expected and revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% year-on-year, citing surging adoption of its artificial intelligence platform across government and commercial sectors.

U.S. government sales climbed 52% to $486 million, while domestic commercial revenue more than doubled to $397 million, with total contract value quadrupling to $1.31 billion.

The company raised full-year guidance to $4.4 billion in revenue and $1.9–$2.1 billion in free cash flow.

Despite concerns about stretched valuation—shares are up 170% YTD—Palantir’s results underscore its entrenched government ties, expanding commercial reach, and leverage from the AI infrastructure boom.

Asia Stocks Retreat from Record Highs as Profit-Taking, Fed Uncertainty Weigh

Asian equities pulled back sharply from record highs on Tuesday, with investors locking in gains from recent tech-led rallies amid soft U.S. data and uncertainty over further Fed rate cuts.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed early gains to close down 1.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.3% and China’s CSI 300 fell 1.1%.

The U.S. dollar climbed to a nine-month peak versus the yen and a three-month high against the euro before retreating on haven demand.

Diverging signals from Fed officials—some calling for deeper cuts, others urging caution—added to volatility, while weaker ISM manufacturing data deepened growth concerns.

Brent crude slid 0.4% to $64.65 as markets interpreted OPEC+’s Q1 output pause as a sign of potential oversupply.

Conclusion

Tech-driven momentum—fueled by Amazon’s record-setting AI deal and Palantir’s robust outlook—continues to highlight the structural demand for compute infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Aramco’s steady earnings and OPEC+ supply discipline reinforce oil’s stabilization narrative, even as softer prices linger.

In Asia, profit-taking underscored fragility after record highs, while conflicting Fed commentary kept traders guessing on December’s policy path.

Global markets entered the week on a cautious note as investors weighed upbeat corporate results against shifting monetary expectations and geopolitical recalibration. The balance between optimism in corporate innovation and macro restraint remains the key determinant of near-term market direction.

Investment Insights

• Quality over momentum in AI software: Palantir’s beat/raise shows enterprise AI spend consolidating to scaled vendors; favor cash-generative platforms over high-multiple, pre-scale stories.
• Energy cash returns remain resilient: Aramco’s beat amid soft crude underscores low break-evens and shareholder payout capacity; maintain barbelled exposure—integrated majors plus select midstream.
• Trim into Asia’s peak prints: Broad profit-taking after record highs and a firmer dollar argues for tightening risk budgets in North Asia cyclicals.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 3, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Benchmark read on factory activity that shapes growth and Fed expectations; released on the first U.S. business day each month.
November 4, 2025	Australia — RBA Interest Rate Decision	Sets the AUD policy rate; guidance steers risk sentiment across Asia and commodities.
November 4–5, 2025	Japan — BoJ Meeting Minutes (Nov)	Offers clues on policy normalization timing and yield-curve stance, impacting JPY and global rates.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ADP National Employment Report (Oct)	Early private-payrolls signal ahead of official jobs data; key for labor momentum and rate-path pricing.
November 5, 2025	Germany — Factory Orders (Sep)	High-frequency gauge of eurozone industrial demand and recession risk in Europe’s largest economy.
November 5, 2025	Eurozone/UK — Services PMIs (Oct, final)	Services drive most GDP; readings steer ECB/BoE expectations and EUR/GBP moves.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ISM Services PMI (Oct)	Key barometer for the U.S. services engine—implications for growth resilience, inflation pressure, and yields.

Sources: Investing.com economic calendar; ISM release schedule; ADP release calendar; XTB weekly calendar; ASX RBA Rate Indicator.

Key Points

• Asia Stocks Advance: Kospi hit a record 4,221.87 as Asia markets climbed despite mixed China PMIs (private 50.6 vs 50.9 expected; official 49.0); RBA meeting in focus after hot Q3 inflation, with sentiment aided by Friday’s Wall St gains.
• Rare Earths Boom: U.S.-listed rare earths miners extended triple-digit surges as the critical-minerals race accelerates; Beijing’s one-year delay to new export controls post Trump–Xi offers near-term relief amid structurally rising EV/AI/clean-energy demand.
• OPEC+ Taps Brakes: Group added a modest 137k b/d for December and signaled a Q1 2026 pause to avoid a glut; Brent hovered near $65 and WTI ~$61 as Russian sanctions complicate supply dynamics ahead of the Nov. 30 meeting.
• U.S.–India Strains: India now faces a 50% U.S. tariff rate—above China’s ~47% post-truce—highlighting a more transactional U.S. posture; a new 10-year defense framework tempers risks but policy uncertainty clouds trade-exposed sectors.

Asia Stocks Advance Despite Mixed China PMIs; Kospi Sets Record, RBA in Focus

Asia-Pacific equities mostly gained as investors looked past mixed China readings—private October manufacturing PMI at 50.6 (vs 50.9 expected) and the official gauge at 49.0—to a stronger risk tone.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.78% to a record 4,221.87 (Kosdaq +1.57%), while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 and China’s CSI 300 added 0.27% to 4,653.4.

Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.15% ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two-day meeting, where a hold is widely expected after hot Q3 inflation; Japan was shut for a holiday.

Wall Street’s Friday gains (Nasdaq +0.61%, S&P 500 +0.26%, Dow little changed) underpinned sentiment.

Rare Earths Surge as Critical Minerals Race Intensifies; Truce Delay Fuels Momentum

U.S.-listed rare earths miners extended a torrid run amid intensifying competition to secure critical minerals: over the past three months, Critical Metals is up 241%, while NioCorp, Energy Fuels and Idaho Strategic Resources have each surged well above 100%; year-to-date, Energy Fuels has quadrupled and NioCorp has nearly quintupled.

The rally drew fresh support after Beijing agreed to delay new rare-earth export controls by one year following the Trump–Xi meeting, easing near-term supply risk.

Still, analysts caution that speculative froth sits atop a structural shift driven by clean-energy, EV and AI demand, with supply diversification likely lengthy and volatile.

OPEC+ Adds 137k b/d for December, Plans Q1 2026 Pause to Head Off Glut

OPEC+ approved a modest 137,000 b/d increase for December—matching October and November—then signaled a pause in January–March 2026 as the group tempers its market-share push amid oversupply risks.

Since April, output targets are up ~2.9 mb/d (~2.7% of global supply), but new U.S./UK sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil complicate further hikes.

With Q1 typically the weakest demand quarter, the pause aims to stabilize balances. Brent settled Friday at $65.07 (+$0.07) and WTI at $60.98 (+$0.41), moves largely anticipated by the market.

The eight-member core meets again on Nov. 30 alongside a full OPEC+ gathering.

U.S.–India Ties Strain as Tariffs Top China’s; Strategic Alignment in Question

India now faces a 50% effective U.S. tariff rate—above China’s ~47% after last week’s Trump–Xi trade truce—underscoring a shift toward a more transactional U.S. stance that has cooled a two-decade strategic courtship.

Experts cite missing “leader-level” chemistry, new frictions from H1B fees and Washington’s posture on India–Pakistan tensions.

While both sides inked a 10-year defense framework to deepen coordination and tech cooperation, investors see a muddier policy backdrop: India could be pushed closer to Russia and the Global South even as supply-chain dependence on China persists, leaving trade-sensitive sectors exposed to headline risk and slower investment decisions.

Conclusion

Markets opened the week with a constructive bias: Asia equities advanced despite mixed China PMIs, Korea setting fresh highs, while rare earths names extended outsized gains on geopolitics-driven supply themes.

Energy remains range-bound as OPEC+ adds a small December increase but signals a Q1 pause to preempt a glut, reinforcing a floor near current levels.

Policy remains the wild card: a U.S.–China truce reduces headline risk, but U.S.–India frictions and sanctions on Russia complicate trade and supply chains.

Positioning favors quality cyclicals tied to AI/industrial spending, selective commodities exposure, and disciplined hedging against policy reversals and demand softness near term.

Investment Insights

• Rare earths positioning: Barbell upstream (low-cost producers with processing capacity) and downstream (magnets/EV components).
• Energy stance: Expect range-bound crude into Q1 on OPEC+ pause and weak seasonal demand.
• India risk management: Tariff overhang argues for a neutral weight near term.
• China exposure: Focus on policy-aligned themes (AI infrastructure, grid upgrades) over broad cyclicals; pair with downside protection given uncertain flow dynamics.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 3, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Benchmark read on factory activity that shapes growth and Fed expectations; released on the first U.S. business day each month.
November 4, 2025	Australia — RBA Interest Rate Decision	Sets the AUD policy rate; guidance steers risk sentiment across Asia and commodities.
November 4–5, 2025	Japan — BoJ Meeting Minutes (Nov)	Offers clues on policy normalization timing and yield-curve stance, impacting JPY and global rates.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ADP National Employment Report (Oct)	Early private-payrolls signal ahead of official jobs data; key for labor momentum and rate-path pricing.
November 5, 2025	Germany — Factory Orders (Sep)	High-frequency gauge of eurozone industrial demand and recession risk in Europe’s largest economy.
November 5, 2025	Eurozone/UK — Services PMIs (Oct, final)	Services drive most GDP; readings steer ECB/BoE expectations and EUR/GBP moves.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ISM Services PMI (Oct)	Key barometer for the U.S. services engine—implications for growth resilience, inflation pressure, and yields.

Sources: Investing.com economic calendar; ISM release schedule; ADP release calendar; XTB weekly calendar; ASX RBA Rate Indicator.

Key Points

• U.S.–China Trade Truce Lifts Market Sentiment: Trump and Xi reached a one-year agreement pausing rare earth export curbs and cutting U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, signaling a thaw in relations that eased global trade tensions.
• Fed Cuts Rates but Cautions on Future Easing: The Federal Reserve lowered rates to 3.75%–4% and announced the end of quantitative tightening, but Chair Powell warned that another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” tempering market optimism.
• Samsung Profit Surges on AI Chip Boom: Samsung’s Q3 operating profit more than doubled to 12.2 trillion won, driven by record memory chip sales for AI servers, as it reclaimed the global memory market lead from SK Hynix.
• Shell Extends Buybacks Amid Strong Results: Shell reported $5.4 billion in Q3 earnings, beating expectations and unveiling another $3.5 billion share buyback, sustaining investor confidence despite softer oil prices.

Trump, Xi Strike One-Year Trade Truce Focused on Rare Earths and Tariffs

The U.S. and China reached a limited one-year agreement on rare earth supplies and fentanyl-related tariffs following a closely watched meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea. Beijing agreed to delay its export controls on rare earth minerals by a year, while Washington halved tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese goods to 10%, reducing total duties on Chinese exports to 47%. In exchange, China pledged to curb fentanyl exports and resume U.S. agricultural purchases, including soybeans. Markets reacted positively, with China’s CSI Rare Earths Index rising over 2%, while soybean futures fell 1.6%. Analysts said the deal marks a tactical de-escalation rather than a structural shift, easing immediate tensions but leaving broader issues—like tech restrictions and industrial overcapacity—unresolved.

Fed Delivers Second Rate Cut, But Powell Tempers Market Optimism

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a second consecutive meeting, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%, while signaling caution about further easing. Chair Jerome Powell said another reduction in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” prompting traders to scale back expectations for continued rate cuts. The Fed also announced it will end quantitative tightening on December 1, marking a pause in its multi-year balance sheet reduction. Despite elevated inflation at 3% and moderating job growth, Powell emphasized growing concern about labor market softness. U.S. equities reversed early gains after his remarks, reflecting investor unease over a less dovish policy path.

Samsung Earnings Surge as AI Chip Demand Fuels Profit Rebound

Samsung Electronics reported a sharp rebound in third-quarter earnings, with operating profit more than doubling to 12.2 trillion won ($8.6 billion) on booming demand for memory chips used in artificial intelligence servers. Revenue rose nearly 9% year-over-year to 86.1 trillion won, beating analyst expectations and signaling a strong recovery in the company’s semiconductor division. Memory chip sales hit a record 33.1 trillion won, propelling Samsung’s Device Solutions unit to a tenfold profit increase from the previous quarter. The company also regained the global memory market lead from SK Hynix after passing Nvidia’s qualification tests for advanced HBM chips. Samsung expects sustained AI-driven data center investments to keep fueling growth into 2026.

Shell Beats Profit Estimates, Launches $3.5 Billion Share Buyback

Shell reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings of $5.4 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts and supported by solid operational performance and trading strength. The energy major announced a new $3.5 billion share buyback program over the next three months—its 16th consecutive quarter of repurchases exceeding $3 billion. Although adjusted earnings fell nearly 10% year-on-year, Shell’s results highlighted improved cash flow discipline, with net debt reduced to $41.2 billion. Year-to-date, Shell’s shares have gained over 16%, outperforming peers as investors reward its consistent shareholder returns and resilient performance amid a softer crude price environment.

Conclusion

Global markets ended the week on a cautiously optimistic note as easing U.S.–China trade tensions and strong corporate earnings offset lingering monetary uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut, coupled with its pause on balance sheet reduction, underscored a measured approach to supporting growth amid elevated inflation risks. Meanwhile, corporate strength from Samsung and Shell reinforced investor confidence in both technology and energy sectors, highlighting divergent but resilient growth drivers. As trade diplomacy stabilizes and earnings momentum continues, investors remain focused on how monetary signals and geopolitical recalibration will shape risk sentiment heading into year-end.

Investment Insights

• Trade Easing Boosts Risk Appetite: The U.S.–China tariff rollback reduces short-term volatility across commodities and equities, favoring cyclical sectors such as industrials and semiconductors.
• Monetary Policy Uncertainty Persists: The Fed’s cautious tone signals a potential pause in easing, suggesting investors should maintain balanced exposure between growth and defensive assets.
• AI Infrastructure Drives Tech Momentum: Samsung’s strong AI chip demand confirms continued capital inflows into semiconductor and cloud infrastructure plays, reinforcing the long-term tech investment theme.
• Energy Majors Reward Shareholders: Shell’s consistent buybacks amid moderating oil prices point to sustained cash flow resilience—supporting dividend-focused and income-oriented portfolios.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 31, 2025	Eurozone Flash HICP (Inflation)	Key read on price pressures shaping ECB policy path and euro-area rate expectations.
October 31, 2025	China NBS Manufacturing & Services PMIs	First-look at China’s growth momentum and global demand pulse amid structural challenges.
October 31, 2025	U.S. CPI (September, delayed release)	Inflation snapshot crucial for Fed policy outlook and risk-asset positioning, especially under data uncertainty.
October 30, 2025	U.S.–China Bilateral Meeting (Trump–Xi, APEC)	Potential trade détente affects tariffs, supply chains, rare-earth access and global risk sentiment.
November 1, 2025	Deadline for U.S. 100% Tariffs on Chinese Goods	A consummation or delay of tariff action will have significant implications for manufacturing, global trade and investor confidence.

Key Points

• Fed Liquidity Watch: Strains in short-term lending point to tighter cash conditions, increasing the chance the Fed pauses its balance-sheet reductions to stabilize funding.
• Australia Inflation Re-Accelerates: Q3 prices rose 3.2% year over year, topping forecasts and likely delaying any rate cuts as the central bank prioritizes stubborn housing and services costs.
• Nvidia Expands in the U.S.: The company’s most advanced AI chips are now being produced in Arizona, strengthening domestic supply while policy limits on China remain a key risk.
• U.S.–China Tech Dialogue: Trump’s plan to discuss Nvidia chips with Xi raises the prospect of limited export allowances to China—supportive for sales but potentially narrowing the U.S. tech edge.

Front-End Strain Puts QT on the Line

Short-term funding pressure has pushed repo rates toward the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) ceiling, with persistent facility usage, reserves dipping below $3 trillion, and heavy T-bill issuance tightening liquidity.

Analysts increasingly frame an early end to quantitative tightening (QT) as a form of risk management, even as some argue that the true driver is not reserve scarcity but an oversupply of collateral.

Australia: Hotter CPI Delays RBA Easing

Australia’s Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.2% year-over-year, with the trimmed mean rising to 3.0%, moving inflation back above the central bank’s target range and stalling previous signs of disinflation.

Markets responded with tighter financial conditions—Australian equities (ASX) moved lower and the AUD strengthened. Rate-cut expectations were pushed out, with the base case now favoring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holding its cash rate at 3.6% through year-end.

Stubborn services and housing inflation remain key concerns, limiting support for longer-duration assets despite steady economic growth.

Nvidia Onshores Blackwell; Policy Pitch Intensifies

Nvidia has shifted production of its advanced Blackwell GPUs to Arizona, bolstering U.S. semiconductor supply resilience amid rising demand. Management has flagged a multi-hundred-billion-dollar opportunity in GPU sales.

The company also acquired a $1 billion stake in Nokia and is pushing into 5G/6G platforms, diversifying its end markets. However, U.S. export restrictions continue to pose headline risks, limiting China-related revenue.

While capital expenditure tailwinds are supportive, policy uncertainty and potential margin effects from onshoring remain important factors for investors to monitor.

Xi–Trump Talk Puts NVDA Export Path Back in Play

Former President Trump indicated that Blackwell chip exports may be on the table in his upcoming discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping, potentially allowing downgraded models (H20/B30A-class) to be exported to China.

China’s current import ban has left Nvidia “100% out of China,” so any export carve-out could aid China’s AI development while marginally narrowing the U.S. technological lead in compute power.

Nvidia’s datacenter visibility will depend on licensing scope, performance limits, and enforcement of export policies.

Conclusion

Liquidity stress in short-term funding markets, re-accelerating Australian inflation, and U.S. semiconductor policy are key themes shaping today’s cross-asset landscape.

Markets are adjusting to potential changes in QT timing and RBA policy while parsing the implications of inflation, growth dynamics, and FX movements.

In equities, resilience in the AI supply chain helps offset policy risks. In rates, issuance calendars and facility usage influence front-end pricing. In FX, AUD strength signals continued policy vigilance.

Geopolitical developments—especially in semiconductor trade—remain a major driver of risk sentiment and sector performance.

Investment Insights

• Liquidity & Policy: Front-end funding stress argues for maintaining ample cash buffers and flexible duration; treat QT timing as a macro volatility source rather than a directional rates call.
• Inflation Path: Re-acceleration risk (Australia) supports a “higher-for-longer” baseline; emphasize pricing power and services exposure over pure rate sensitivity.
• Tech Supply Chain: U.S. onshoring and export controls reshape semiconductor value chains; favor diversified beneficiaries (foundry equipment, advanced packaging, data-center power/cooling) over single-policy outcomes.
• Geopolitics & Compute Gap: Any partial reopening of China chip access narrows the U.S. compute advantage at the margin; balance AI upside with policy dispersion through broader infrastructure plays (cloud, connectivity) and regional diversification.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 29, 2025	Federal Reserve Rate Decision	Markets expect a 25 bp cut amid cooling labor data; outcome will steer credit conditions, bond yields, and equity valuations.
October 30, 2025	Trump–Xi Meeting (APEC, South Korea)	Potential reset in U.S.–China trade tensions with implications for tariffs, rare-earth supply chains, and global growth sentiment.
October 31, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Spending / Employment Cost Index	Monitors household demand and wage pressures—both critical for the Fed’s inflation outlook and for consumer-sensitive sectors.
November 1, 2025	Deadline for U.S. 100% Tariffs on Chinese Goods	Could trigger a major escalation in the trade war; delay or reversal would relieve pressure on global supply chains and manufacturing equities.

Key Points

• Saudi Arabia Accelerates Post-Oil Transition: The kingdom is channeling resources into AI, tourism, and sports, with over half its economy now decoupled from oil revenues as it targets sustainable, diversified growth.
• Google and NextEra Revive Nuclear Power for AI: The companies will restart Iowa’s Duane Arnold nuclear plant by 2029 to meet surging AI-driven electricity demand, underscoring a broader tech shift toward reliable, carbon-free energy.
• Tech Megacaps to Dictate Market Direction: Earnings from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft this week will determine near-term equity momentum, with investors watching cloud, AI, and consumer trends for guidance.
• Gold Retreats on Trade Optimism: Bullion fell over 2% to $3,900 per ounce as easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand, while markets awaited the Fed’s rate decision for signals on monetary policy trajectory.

Saudi Arabia Accelerates Economic Diversification with Bold Bet on AI

Saudi Arabia is intensifying its drive to reduce oil dependency by investing heavily in artificial intelligence, tourism, and sports. Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih said that more than half of the kingdom’s economy is now “completely decoupled” from oil, with 40% of government revenue stemming from non-oil sources.

Despite a 24% decline in oil revenue in the first half of 2025, Saudi Arabia continues to expand its Public Investment Fund (PIF), now nearing $1 trillion in capital, and plans to become a major AI hub through large-scale data centers and infrastructure development.

The tourism sector—now 5% of GDP—is projected to reach 10% by 2030 as the kingdom opens new resorts, airlines, and airports to attract international visitors.

Big Tech Turns to Nuclear to Feed AI Power Demands

Google and NextEra Energy plan to restart Iowa’s Duane Arnold nuclear plant by 2029, positioning nuclear power as critical infrastructure for the AI era.

The 615-megawatt facility, shuttered in 2020, would provide Google with round-the-clock carbon-free electricity for its expanding cloud and AI data centers while supplying excess power to Iowa’s grid.

U.S. electricity demand hit a record in 2024 as AI buildout accelerated, prompting tech firms to lock in long-duration, low-carbon baseload rather than rely solely on renewables.

Similar nuclear partnerships from Microsoft and Oracle suggest a structural shift: AI capacity growth is increasingly tied to energy security, not just compute scale.

Tech Giants’ Earnings Poised to Set Market Tone for Q4

Jim Cramer emphasized that this week’s earnings reports from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft will determine the market’s direction for the remainder of the year.

Together with peers Nvidia and Tesla, these megacaps now make up nearly 35% of the S&P 500’s weighting, meaning any collective weakness could stall the broader rally.

Cramer highlighted expectations for strong cloud performance from Google and Microsoft, ad momentum from Meta, and robust iPhone 17 and AWS updates from Apple and Amazon.

With investors increasingly linking AI adoption to profitability, results across these firms will serve as a key sentiment gauge for U.S. equities heading into year-end.

Gold Slides as Trade Optimism Dims Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices dropped more than 2% to a three-week low, slipping to around $3,900 per ounce, as optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks reduced safe-haven demand and boosted risk assets.

President Trump’s upbeat comments on a potential trade deal and several new economic agreements in Asia spurred equity markets, weighing on bullion’s appeal.

Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where another rate cut is widely anticipated.

Despite gold’s 53% year-to-date rally and record highs earlier in October, analysts from Citi and Capital Economics have trimmed short-term price forecasts, signaling expectations of further normalization if geopolitical risk recedes.

Conclusion

Global markets are entering a pivotal week shaped by shifting trade dynamics, corporate earnings, and energy transitions.

Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and Saudi Arabia’s accelerating diversification away from oil signal structural changes in global growth drivers.

Meanwhile, Google’s nuclear partnership underscores how AI’s energy demands are redefining industrial strategy.

Investors are closely watching mega-cap tech earnings, which could determine short-term market direction, while gold’s retreat highlights easing risk aversion.

With central banks poised to maintain accommodative policies, the focus now turns to how fiscal and corporate decisions align with the next phase of global economic recalibration.

Investment Insights

• Energy Transition Opportunities: Saudi Arabia’s accelerated diversification and Google’s nuclear revival signal long-term investment potential in clean energy infrastructure, AI data ecosystems, and industrial modernization.
• Earnings as Market Catalyst: Short-term equity performance will hinge on the results and guidance from tech giants. Strong cloud and AI revenues could reinforce growth sentiment; weak margins may trigger a correction.
• Commodities Repricing: Gold’s retreat amid easing trade tensions suggests investors are rotating back toward risk assets — a reminder to rebalance between defensive and growth exposures.
• Macro Watchpoints: Progress in U.S.-China negotiations and the Fed’s upcoming rate decision remain critical for positioning in equities, currencies, and commodities.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 29, 2025	Federal Reserve Rate Decision	Markets expect a 25 bp cut amid cooling labor data; outcome will steer credit conditions, bond yields, and equity valuations.
October 30, 2025	Trump–Xi Meeting (APEC, South Korea)	Potential reset in U.S.–China trade tensions with implications for tariffs, rare-earth supply chains, and global growth sentiment.
October 31, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Spending / Employment Cost Index	Monitors household demand and wage pressures—both critical for the Fed’s inflation outlook and for consumer-sensitive sectors.
November 1, 2025	Deadline for U.S. 100% Tariffs on Chinese Goods	Could trigger a major escalation in the trade war; delay or reversal would relieve pressure on global supply chains and manufacturing equities.