Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 22, 2025
Date Issued – 22th January 2025
Preview
Tech innovation and policy shifts dominate the headlines this week. OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank unveiled Stargate, a $500 billion U.S. AI infrastructure initiative, solidifying AI’s role in future innovation. Meanwhile, President Trump signaled openness to Elon Musk or Larry Ellison acquiring TikTok, adding complexity to U.S.-China tech relations. Netflix surged 14% after record Q4 subscriber growth and price hikes, driven by live events and a $15 billion buyback. In Asia, AI optimism lifted markets, but SK Hynix’s 26% rally faces profit-taking as investors rotate into domestic stocks benefiting from Trump’s policies. Tech remains the focal point for global markets.
Tech Titans Commit $500 Billion to U.S. AI Development
OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank have announced plans to invest up to $500 billion in U.S. artificial intelligence infrastructure through a new venture called Stargate. The initiative, unveiled at the White House with President Trump, highlights AI’s growing importance to the American economy. Stargate’s first data center, already under construction in Texas, will be operated by Oracle and used by OpenAI. Additional investors and debt financing are expected to support the ambitious project. Microsoft, Nvidia, and Arm Holdings have signed on as technology partners, solidifying AI as a cornerstone of future innovation.
Investment Insight
The Stargate initiative underscores AI’s pivotal role in reshaping industries. Investors should monitor the capital-intensive nature of AI infrastructure, as it could drive demand for semiconductor stocks, cloud providers, and data center operators.

Trump Open to Musk or Ellison Buying TikTok in Joint US Venture
President Trump expressed openness to Elon Musk or Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison acquiring TikTok through a joint venture with the U.S. government. While ByteDance has resisted selling the app, Trump extended the deadline for a sale by 75 days via executive order. Potential bidders include American investors, billionaire Frank McCourt, and Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, whose $20 billion bid excludes TikTok’s algorithm to ease national security concerns. Oracle and Amazon have also been floated as potential suitors, though Beijing’s stance on the matter remains uncertain.
Investment Insight
TikTok’s potential sale highlights opportunities in the social media and AI sectors. Watch for regulatory outcomes, as antitrust issues and geopolitical tensions could reshape valuations and investor strategies.
Netflix Stock Surges 14% on Record Subscriber Growth, Price Hikes Announced
Netflix shares soared over 14% in after-hours trading after the company reported its largest-ever quarterly subscriber gain of 18.9 million in Q4, far surpassing Wall Street’s expectations. Revenue and earnings beat forecasts, with full-year revenue guidance upgraded to $43.5-$44.5 billion. Netflix also announced a $15 billion stock buyback and price increases across its plans in the U.S., Canada, Portugal, and Argentina. Key drivers included successful live events like the “Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson” match and NFL games, though the company emphasized no single event accounted for the surge.
Investment Insight
Netflix’s focus on special live events, price hikes, and aggressive buybacks signals long-term confidence. Investors should monitor its ability to sustain subscriber growth amid rising competition and higher pricing.
Market price: Netflix Inc (NFLX): USD 869.68
Asian Stocks Rise on AI Optimism, China Faces Pressure from Tariff Threats
Asian markets climbed as enthusiasm over AI investments under President Trump overshadowed concerns about potential 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese tech stocks surged, with SoftBank shares jumping 11% after its inclusion in the U.S.-backed Stargate AI venture. However, Chinese and Hong Kong markets lagged, with the CSI 300 Index falling 1.3% amid trade fears. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up 0.1%, while the dollar strengthened and Chinese yuan weakened.
Investment Insight
AI-driven optimism supports regional tech stocks, but lingering trade tensions with China may weigh on broader Asian markets. Investors should balance exposure between AI opportunities and risks tied to geopolitical uncertainty.
SK Hynix’s AI-Driven Rally Faces Investor Pullback Amid Trump Policies
SK Hynix shares, up 26% this year on AI excitement, face pressure as Korean retail investors rotate into domestic-focused stocks benefiting from President Trump’s policies. Despite expectations of record Q4 earnings driven by demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, concerns over Nvidia’s slowing momentum, declining memory prices, and stretched valuations (2.8x price-to-book ratio) are prompting profit-taking. Foreign investors, who propelled the stock higher, may also see memory chips as laggards in the AI space. Broader market focus is shifting toward sectors like shipbuilding and nuclear power under Trump’s agenda.
Investment Insight
SK Hynix’s rally reflects AI optimism, but valuation concerns and sector rotation may cap further gains. Investors should weigh long-term AI demand against short-term macro and policy-driven shifts favoring other industries.
Market price: SK Hynix Inc (KRX: 000660): KRW 226,500
Conclusion
This week highlights the transformative power of AI and the global impact of policy decisions. Stargate’s $500 billion investment cements AI as a cornerstone of U.S. innovation, while Netflix’s record-breaking growth underscores the value of strategic content and pricing. However, geopolitical tensions loom, from TikTok’s potential sale to Trump’s tariff threats on China. In Asia, AI-driven optimism is tempered by profit-taking in SK Hynix and sector rotations into domestic industries. As technology reshapes industries and markets, investors must balance growth opportunities with the risks posed by evolving policies and macroeconomic pressures. The tech-driven narrative remains a dominant market force.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 23, 2025: South Korea GDP, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 21, 2025
Date Issued – 21th January 2025
Preview
Markets are bracing for volatility as President Trump’s tariff plans on Canada and Mexico rattle currencies and metals markets, while China remains a potential trade target. Apple’s iPhone sales in China plunged 18% last quarter, losing ground to Huawei’s locally-driven dominance. Trump’s repeal of Biden’s AI executive order may boost innovation but raises safety concerns. Meanwhile, an extreme winter storm is disrupting Texas energy production and pushing electricity demand to near-record highs, with prices surging. Investors should monitor trade developments, AI advancements, and energy market volatility as key drivers in the coming weeks.
Trump’s Trade Signals Jolt Markets, Stirring Volatility Concerns
Markets reacted unevenly to President Trump’s first day of his second term, with no immediate tariffs on China offering relief, while threats of 25% levies on Canadian and Mexican imports caused their currencies to tumble. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up 0.2%, but US equity futures were flat as investors braced for continued trade uncertainty. The dollar rose 0.7%, while Treasury yields fell on easing inflation fears. Analysts warn of heightened volatility as Trump’s “America First” agenda unfolds, with China possibly next on the tariff radar.
Investment Insight
Prepare for market swings driven by tariff developments. Safe-haven assets like Treasuries may offer temporary refuge, but currency markets, particularly the yuan, remain vulnerable to trade policy shifts.

Apple’s iPhone Sales in China Plunge 18% in Holiday Quarter
Apple’s iPhone sales in China fell 18.2% during the December quarter, pushing the company to third place in the world’s largest smartphone market, according to Counterpoint Research. Huawei reclaimed the top spot, driven by strong sales of its Mate 70 and Nova 13 series, which feature HarmonyOS and Chinese-made chips. Apple’s decline in China contributed to a global 5% drop in iPhone sales during the key shopping season. While Apple’s new AI-powered features boosted early sales, limited access to these capabilities in China has dampened momentum. Talks with local tech giants like Baidu and Tencent to resolve this issue remain inconclusive.
Investment Insight
Apple’s struggles in China underscore growing competition from Huawei and the importance of local partnerships for AI advancements. Investors should monitor Apple’s ability to regain market share in China and capitalize on AI opportunities, while Huawei’s resurgence highlights potential growth in Chinese tech and semiconductors.
Market price: Apple Inc (APPL): USD 229.98
Metals Slide as Trump Targets Canada and Mexico with Tariff Threats
Base metals fell after President Trump announced plans for 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, boosting the dollar and making metals pricier for global buyers. Copper, already strained by weak Chinese demand, remains under pressure after an 11% drop last quarter. While Trump refrained from imposing new China tariffs, uncertainty over future actions continues to cloud market sentiment. Aluminum and lead declined on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore bucked the trend, rising on stronger Chinese demand prospects.
Investment Insight
Trade tensions and a strong dollar will likely weigh on industrial metals, but iron ore could outperform due to China’s infrastructure-driven demand. Stay cautious around base metals tied to global trade sentiment.
Trump Repeals Biden’s AI Executive Order on Day One
President Donald Trump repealed a 2023 executive order by former President Joe Biden that aimed to mitigate AI risks to consumers, workers, and national security. Biden’s order had tasked NIST with creating guidance on addressing AI biases and required companies to share safety test results with the government before public release. Trump’s allies criticized the requirements as overly burdensome and harmful to innovation, while Trump pledged to promote AI policies focused on “free speech and human flourishing,” though specifics remain unclear.
Investment Insight
The repeal may accelerate AI development by reducing regulatory hurdles, favoring companies in the AI sector. However, the lack of safety oversight could heighten risks tied to biased or untested models.
Extreme Cold and Record Snowfall Threaten Texas Power Grid
An unprecedented winter storm is hitting the US South, with record-breaking snowfall expected in cities like Houston and New Orleans. Texas faces extreme cold warnings, with temperatures in West Texas dropping as low as 15°F. The freeze is disrupting oil and natural gas production while driving electricity demand to near-record highs. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) forecasts peak demand to hit 77.5 gigawatts, with electricity prices in Dallas more than doubling. Travel has been severely impacted, with flight cancellations and highway closures across the region.
Investment Insight
Energy prices may rise as freezing temperatures strain production and demand spikes. Utility and energy stocks could see short-term volatility, while increased weather-related disruptions highlight infrastructure investment opportunities.
Conclusion
As markets adjust to President Trump’s policies, investors face a turbulent landscape shaped by trade tensions, disruptive weather, and shifting tech dynamics. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico weigh on metals, while China looms as the next trade battleground. Apple’s struggles in China highlight growing competition and the importance of localized innovation. Extreme weather in Texas underscores vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure, sparking price surges and production disruptions. With AI regulations loosened, opportunities for growth emerge alongside heightened risks. Staying agile and focused on evolving global trends will be key to navigating the uncertainty ahead.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 21, 2025: Canada CPI, UK Jobless claims
- January 23, 2025: South Korea GDP, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 20, 2025
Date Issued – 20th January 2025
Preview
Asian stocks rose on optimism from a Trump-Xi call, boosting Chinese equities as markets await Trump’s policy agenda, including potential tariffs and reforms. Oil steadied near $81 as traders braced for Trump’s domestic energy push and sanctions, with global crude flows remaining volatile. Instagram and X unveiled new video tools, vying for TikTok’s user base amid its uncertain US future following a federal ban. South Korea announced record export financing to counter Trump’s trade policies, focusing on shielding vulnerable sectors like semiconductors while exploring opportunities in defense and shipbuilding. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 0.5%, the highest in 17 years, signaling confidence in Japan’s recovery despite risks from Trump’s policies. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments, energy markets, and shifts in video platforms, while noting opportunities in export-reliant sectors, financials, and energy producers.
Asian Stocks Rise on Trump-Xi Call, Optimism Grows
Asian markets climbed after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s pre-inauguration call raised hopes for easing US-China tensions. Key Chinese stocks in Hong Kong surged up to 2.5%, while Wall Street futures dipped slightly with US markets closed for a holiday. The discussion, which touched on trade, TikTok, and fentanyl, signaled potential improvements in bilateral relations, boosting risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to slide, and Chinese banks held their loan prime rates steady.
Attention now shifts to Trump’s sweeping policy agenda post-inauguration, including expected executive orders on energy, immigration, and regulatory reform, alongside a potential inflationary impact from his protectionist stance. Analysts predict higher Treasury yields, with some forecasting rates to climb to 6% this year. In Japan, all eyes are on the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, with speculation around a possible hike.
Investment Insight
Improved US-China relations may buoy Asian equities in the short term, but Trump’s pro-growth, protectionist policies could stoke inflation, strengthening the dollar and pressuring bonds. Investors should monitor sectors like tech, energy, and EVs, which are directly influenced by geopolitical shifts.

Oil Steadies Near $81 as Markets Eye Trump’s Energy Plans
Oil prices held steady with Brent trading below $81 and WTI near $78 as markets brace for uncertainty tied to Donald Trump’s second term. The president-elect is expected to invoke emergency powers to boost domestic energy production and impose hefty tariffs on key trade partners, alongside potential sanctions on Iran.
Crude markets remain volatile, with US sanctions on Russia driving Asian buyers to seek alternative supplies, Middle Eastern crude prices surging, and Brent’s backwardation widening. Speculators have ramped up long positions on Brent, while further sanctions targeting Russia’s oil industry could deepen market disruptions. Lower trading volumes are anticipated due to a US federal holiday.
Investment Insight
Energy markets face heightened volatility as Trump’s policies could disrupt global oil flows and bolster US energy exports. Investors should monitor geopolitical risks, particularly around Russia and Iran, while considering exposure to US energy producers poised to benefit from domestic production boosts.
Instagram and X Launch Video Tools Amid TikTok Ban Turmoil
Instagram unveiled “Edits,” a video editing app debuting in February, offering advanced creative tools like green screens and transitions. The announcement coincided with TikTok briefly going dark in the US due to a federal ban stemming from national security concerns. TikTok resumed service after President-elect Donald Trump paused enforcement, but its future hinges on a mandated sale of its US operations.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) rolled out a dedicated video tab to expand its presence in online content, including live streaming and longform videos. Instagram, already a key competitor with its Reels feature, took advantage of TikTok’s absence, running ads in Apple’s App Store targeting users searching for TikTok.
Investment Insight
The shifting video landscape presents opportunities for platforms like Instagram and X to capture disaffected TikTok creators and audiences. Investors should keep an eye on Meta and X’s video strategies, which could drive user engagement and advertising revenue growth.
South Korea Boosts Export Support Ahead of Trump’s Trade Policies
South Korea announced a record 360 trillion won ($247.74 billion) in export financing to shield its economy from potential fallout as Donald Trump begins his second term. Concerns over heightened trade uncertainty prompted the government to expand insurance against foreign exchange volatility and increase spending on trade initiatives.
Key sectors like semiconductors and rechargeable batteries face risks from Trump’s protectionist stance, while defense, nuclear energy, and shipbuilding are seen as areas for potential collaboration. Trump’s pledge to impose stiff tariffs on major trading partners is expected to impact South Korean companies, especially those with factories in Mexico, Canada, and China. Export growth is projected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, down from 8.1% last year.
Investment Insight
South Korea’s proactive support for exporters highlights the vulnerability of global trade to US protectionism. Investors should watch for shifts in export-dependent sectors like semiconductors and batteries, while opportunities may arise in defense and shipbuilding. Diversification within South Korean equities is key.
Bank of Japan Set to Raise Rates to 17-Year High
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its short-term policy rate to 0.5% this Friday, marking the highest level since 2008. The move signals the central bank’s confidence in Japan’s economic recovery and its commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. Markets have already priced in an 80% chance of a hike, following signals from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
The rate increase comes as inflation has exceeded the BOJ’s target for nearly three years, supported by wage growth and elevated import costs due to a weaker yen. However, uncertainties remain around U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, which could disrupt global markets. The BOJ’s policy trajectory will be closely watched during Ueda’s post-meeting briefing.
Investment Insight
A BOJ rate hike could strengthen the yen and pressure Japan’s exporters, while signaling a shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy. Investors should monitor Japanese equities, particularly export-reliant sectors, and consider opportunities in financials, which may benefit from rising rates.
Conclusion
Global markets are bracing for significant shifts as Donald Trump’s policies take center stage. Optimism over US-China relations lifted Asian equities, but trade tensions and protectionist measures could create headwinds for export-heavy economies like South Korea. Oil markets remain volatile amid Trump’s energy agenda, while Japan’s anticipated rate hike signals a turning point in its monetary policy. In the tech space, Instagram and X are seizing opportunities as TikTok faces regulatory uncertainty. Investors should stay vigilant, focusing on sectors tied to energy, trade, and tech, while navigating the broader geopolitical and economic developments shaping 2025.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 20, 2025: Donald Trump Inauguration, World Economic Forum in Davos begins
- January 21, 2025: Canada CPI, UK Jobless Claims
- January 23, 2025: South Korea GDP, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- January 24, 2025: Japan CPI, rate decision
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 17, 2025
Date Issued – 17th January 2025
Preview
Israel’s cabinet will deliberate a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire deal Friday, facing resistance from far-right allies as global mediators push for implementation before Donald Trump’s inauguration. In Asia, markets slipped after China reported 5% growth in 2024, with geopolitical tensions and slowing momentum raising concerns for 2025. Chinese buyers are shifting to cheaper Brazilian soybeans over US supplies amid tariff fears, further boosting Brazil’s agricultural dominance. Meanwhile, global diesel prices surged following new US sanctions on Russia, tightening supply and refining margins. Lastly, the yen is set for its strongest week in over a month on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, though analysts warn yen strength could be short-lived.
Ceasefire Deal Faces Political and Diplomatic Hurdles
Israel’s cabinet is set to meet Friday to decide on a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire deal after delays stemming from disagreements within Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition and alleged backtracking by Hamas. The deal, announced Wednesday, includes a 42-day truce, hostage exchanges, and aid access, with future talks planned for a permanent resolution. However, Netanyahu faces resistance from far-right allies threatening to leave the government if the deal leads to a lasting ceasefire. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed confidence the ceasefire will begin Sunday, just before Donald Trump’s inauguration, amidst mounting pressure from global mediators.
Investment Insight
Geopolitical stability in the Middle East remains fragile, with potential impacts on energy markets and regional equities. Investors should monitor developments closely, particularly in oil prices and defense-related stocks.

Asian Markets Slip as China Hits 5% Growth Target
Asian shares mostly fell Friday after China reported its economy grew 5% in 2024, meeting government targets but slowing from the prior year. While strong exports and manufacturing growth (up nearly 6%) supported the economy, analysts foresee further slowing in 2025. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats and restrictions on advanced technology exports, remain key risks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite dipped 0.1%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. saw gains of 3.9% on strong AI-related earnings despite broader index declines.
Investment Insight
Slowing Chinese growth and geopolitical tensions could impact Asia-Pacific markets in 2025. Investors should focus on sectors like semiconductors and energy while watching U.S.-China trade developments.
Chinese Buyers Shift to Cheaper Brazilian Soybeans Amid Trade Tensions
Chinese soybean processors are pivoting to Brazilian soybeans over U.S. supplies, bracing for potential import tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump’s second term. Brazil, already China’s top supplier, now accounts for nearly all Q1 shipments as competitive pricing and trade uncertainties drive demand. Brazilian soybeans, priced at $420/ton compared to $451/ton for U.S. cargoes, benefit from favorable weather, a record crop, and a weaker real. China’s Q1 soybean imports are expected to dip slightly year-over-year, with oversupply from 2024 curbing demand. U.S. soybean exporters face mounting challenges, with stockpiles projected to hit a five-year high.
Investment Insight
Brazil’s agricultural dominance strengthens, benefiting exporters and related industries. U.S. farm sectors may face downward pressure, while trade tensions could weigh on U.S. agriculture-related equities. Watch for currency shifts and crop forecasts in Brazil.
Global Diesel Prices Surge Amid New US Sanctions on Russia
Diesel prices and refining margins have spiked globally following the US’s latest sanctions on Russia, aimed at curbing its oil revenue. Analysts warn of potential disruptions to Russian diesel exports, with up to 150,000 barrels per day at risk. European diesel futures hit a 10-month high in backwardation, signaling tight supply, while US diesel futures surged 5% to a six-month peak of $111 per barrel. Asia’s diesel margins also rose but were tempered by higher crude costs. Europe has turned to suppliers in India, the Middle East, and the US, tightening competition as Turkey and Brazil may also seek alternative sources. Analysts expect the market to adjust, with Russian exports likely rerouted via non-sanctioned vessels.
Investment Insight
Tighter diesel supplies and rising refining margins could support energy stocks, particularly in refining and oil trading. Elevated fuel prices may pressure transportation and logistics sectors. Monitor geopolitical developments and crude price trends.
Yen Set for Strongest Week in Over a Month on BOJ Rate Hike Bets
The yen is on track for its best weekly gain since November, rising 1.5% against the dollar as markets anticipate a potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike next week. Persistent inflation, stronger wage growth, and official commentary have fueled speculation, with traders pricing in an 80% chance of a hike. However, analysts caution that yen strength could be short-lived if BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda adopts a dovish tone. Meanwhile, the dollar index dipped 0.6% this week as traders priced in potential Fed rate cuts in 2025, following easing U.S. inflation data. The yuan remained steady after China reported 5.4% Q4 growth, beating expectations, though economic headwinds persist.
Investment Insight
The yen’s rally could pressure Japanese exporters, while a potential BOJ rate hike might boost yields on Japanese government bonds. Currency volatility presents opportunities in forex markets, but investors should watch for BOJ and Fed policy shifts.
Conclusion
This week’s developments highlight the intersection of geopolitics and markets, from Israel’s fragile ceasefire talks to China’s slowing growth and shifting trade dynamics. U.S. sanctions on Russia are driving up diesel prices, while Brazil cements its role as an agricultural powerhouse with rising soybean exports to China. In currency markets, the yen rallies on Bank of Japan rate hike bets, underscoring global monetary policy shifts. As tensions and uncertainties persist, investors should remain vigilant, focusing on sectors like energy, semiconductors, and agriculture while closely monitoring geopolitical risks, central bank decisions, and commodity price movements in the weeks ahead.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 17, 2025: Eurozone CPI, US Industrial Production
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 16, 2025
Date Issued – 16th January 2025
Asian stocks rose on US inflation cooling, boosting hopes for Fed rate cuts, while speculation of a Bank of Japan hike lifted the yen.
TSMC beat forecasts with strong AI-driven demand but faces US-China tensions. Oil prices surged, driven by US sanctions on Russia and falling inventories, while China ramped up grid spending to support its renewable energy boom, fueling demand for metals like copper. Rio Tinto reported weaker iron ore exports but saw gains in copper and lithium production, reflecting its shift toward energy transition metals. Investors should remain cautious as geopolitical and market risks persist.
Asian Stocks Rise on Easing US Core Inflation and BOJ Rate Speculation
Asian equities climbed on Thursday, following Wall Street’s rally after US core inflation cooled, fueling hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Indices in Hong Kong, China, and Australia gained, marking the third straight day of Asian stock increases. The yen surged amid speculation of a possible Bank of Japan rate hike next week, while the South Korean won strengthened after an unexpected policy hold by its central bank.
US swap traders are now fully pricing in a rate cut by July, reversing earlier skepticism. However, market optimism faces upcoming tests, including Fed and BOJ policy announcements and the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. Oil prices extended gains amid supply concerns, while gold and the Canadian dollar remained steady.
Investment Insight
Cooling US inflation supports the narrative of potential Fed rate cuts, boosting risk-on sentiment in equities. However, investors should remain cautious as upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical events could trigger volatility. Diversification remains key amidst shifting global monetary policies.
TSMC Beats Outlook, Signals Resilient AI Spending
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) delivered a strong quarterly outlook, projecting $25–$25.8 billion in revenue for Q1, beating analysts’ $24.4 billion estimate. It also exceeded capital expenditure forecasts, expecting $38–$42 billion in 2025 investments, driven by sustained demand for AI hardware. TSMC’s net income surged 57%, reflecting robust growth fueled by ongoing AI chip demand, new smartphone chips, and potential outsourcing from Intel.
Despite optimism, TSMC faces challenges from US-China tech tensions, including new export controls on AI chips. The chipmaker is expanding globally, with factories in Arizona, Japan, and planned facilities in Europe to diversify operations.
Investment Insight
TSMC’s strong guidance underscores the resilience of AI-driven demand, but geopolitical risks and muted smartphone sales remain headwinds. Investors should monitor global expansion efforts and shifts in AI spending cycles as key factors for future growth.
Market price: TSMC Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd. (TPE: 2330): TWD 1,105.00

BOJ Signals Possible Rate Hike Decision Next Week
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of a rate hike during the January 23-24 policy meeting, citing spring wage negotiations and economic momentum as key factors. The yen strengthened 0.2% to 157.67 against the dollar following his comments. Markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a hike this month, rising to 86% by March. The BOJ is also expected to release an updated economic outlook, potentially raising its inflation projections due to higher rice costs and a weaker yen.
Investment Insight:
A BOJ rate hike could strengthen the yen and pressure Japanese equities, particularly exporters. Investors should monitor inflation revisions and wage growth signals for further policy direction.
Markets Hold Steady Ahead of US Inflation Data
Asian equities traded cautiously Wednesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index trimming early gains and US equity futures remaining flat, as investors awaited US inflation data for signals on Federal Reserve policy. The dollar steadied after a prior drop, while 10-year Treasury yields dipped slightly. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could tighten financial conditions globally, impacting Asian markets. Meanwhile, China’s central bank injected significant liquidity to address pre-Lunar New Year cash demand, and European and US bank earnings loom on the horizon.
Investment Insight:
With markets in a holding pattern, today’s US CPI report could influence the Fed’s rate trajectory and global liquidity conditions. Investors should monitor inflation closely, as a hotter-than-expected print may pressure equities and strengthen the dollar.
Conclusion
From geopolitical negotiations to shifting global markets, this week highlights the intricate balance between policy, innovation, and investment. China’s potential enlistment of Elon Musk in the TikTok dispute underscores his growing influence, while its credit market rebound signals cautious optimism amid economic fragility. Quantum computing’s resurgence reflects the sector’s long-term promise despite volatility. As markets await US inflation data and the BOJ’s potential rate hike, investors should stay alert to policy shifts shaping global liquidity and currency trends. With key developments unfolding across sectors, opportunities and risks continue to evolve in today’s dynamic economic landscape.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 15, 2025: US, France, and UK CPI; Eurozone industrial production
- January 16, 2025: Australia unemployment, Germany CPI
- January 17, 2025: Eurozone CPI, US industrial Production
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 15, 2025
Date Issued – 15th January 2025
China Explores Elon Musk as a Mediator for TikTok’s US Operations
China is exploring Elon Musk as a mediator to resolve TikTok’s US operations crisis, with ByteDance facing pressure to divest. Meanwhile, China’s loan market shows signs of recovery after its first annual decline since 2011, aided by government bond issuance and stimulus measures. Quantum computing stocks rebounded sharply as industry leaders like D-Wave defended the sector’s near-term potential despite Big Tech skepticism. Global markets treaded water ahead of US CPI data, with investors eyeing inflation’s impact on Fed policy, while the BOJ hinted at a potential rate hike next week, strengthening the yen.
TikTok’s Fate: China Eyes Elon Musk as Deal Broker
Chinese officials are reportedly exploring the possibility of involving Elon Musk to mediate a solution for TikTok’s US operations, which face a looming ban under a new US law unless its parent company, ByteDance, divests its stake. Musk, a trusted figure in both China and the US, has expressed opposition to banning TikTok, citing free speech concerns. While discussions remain in the early stages, Beijing hopes Musk’s influence could help avert a shutdown of the platform, which boasts 170 million US users. ByteDance, however, continues to focus on its legal battle to delay or overturn the legislation.
Investment Insight:
Elon Musk’s potential involvement in the TikTok negotiations highlights his growing geopolitical clout. Investors should monitor how this situation unfolds, as decisions here could impact Musk’s ventures, including Tesla’s China operations and the competitive positioning of his platform, X (formerly Twitter).
China’s Loan Market Rebounds After First Annual Decline Since 2011
China’s credit market showed signs of revival in December, fueled by government bond issuance and modest improvements in the housing sector. Aggregate financing surged to 2.86 trillion yuan ($390 billion), with 998 billion yuan in new loans—both at three-month highs. Despite Beijing’s stimulus measures, 2024 marked the first annual drop in new loans in 13 years, driven by weak household and corporate borrowing. Policymakers are expected to roll out further support, including interest rate cuts, to sustain growth amid deflation risks, a housing slump, and looming trade tensions with the US.
Investment Insight:
China’s fiscal push signals potential stabilization in credit demand, but weak private sector borrowing underscores lingering economic fragility. Investors should watch for further monetary easing and its impact on yuan stability and global trade dynamics.
Quantum Computing Stocks Rebound Amid Industry Optimism
Quantum computing stocks surged Tuesday after sharp declines fueled by skepticism from Big Tech leaders. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) jumped 48%, D-Wave (QBTS) rose 23%, and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) gained 14%. This rebound followed D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz’s assertion that quantum computing is already delivering practical value, contradicting comments from Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who argued the technology is decades away from mainstream use. Recent momentum in the sector has been supported by Amazon’s advisory program, Google’s new quantum chip, and increased US government funding.
Investment Insight:
Despite volatile sentiment, quantum computing remains a high-risk, long-term bet. Investors should assess near-term gains cautiously while monitoring advancements in commercial applications and government backing for the sector.

BOJ Signals Possible Rate Hike Decision Next Week
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of a rate hike during the January 23-24 policy meeting, citing spring wage negotiations and economic momentum as key factors. The yen strengthened 0.2% to 157.67 against the dollar following his comments. Markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a hike this month, rising to 86% by March. The BOJ is also expected to release an updated economic outlook, potentially raising its inflation projections due to higher rice costs and a weaker yen.
Investment Insight:
A BOJ rate hike could strengthen the yen and pressure Japanese equities, particularly exporters. Investors should monitor inflation revisions and wage growth signals for further policy direction.
Markets Hold Steady Ahead of US Inflation Data
Asian equities traded cautiously Wednesday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index trimming early gains and US equity futures remaining flat, as investors awaited US inflation data for signals on Federal Reserve policy. The dollar steadied after a prior drop, while 10-year Treasury yields dipped slightly. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could tighten financial conditions globally, impacting Asian markets. Meanwhile, China’s central bank injected significant liquidity to address pre-Lunar New Year cash demand, and European and US bank earnings loom on the horizon.
Investment Insight:
With markets in a holding pattern, today’s US CPI report could influence the Fed’s rate trajectory and global liquidity conditions. Investors should monitor inflation closely, as a hotter-than-expected print may pressure equities and strengthen the dollar.
Conclusion
From geopolitical negotiations to shifting global markets, this week highlights the intricate balance between policy, innovation, and investment. China’s potential enlistment of Elon Musk in the TikTok dispute underscores his growing influence, while its credit market rebound signals cautious optimism amid economic fragility. Quantum computing’s resurgence reflects the sector’s long-term promise despite volatility. As markets await US inflation data and the BOJ’s potential rate hike, investors should stay alert to policy shifts shaping global liquidity and currency trends. With key developments unfolding across sectors, opportunities and risks continue to evolve in today’s dynamic economic landscape.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 15, 2025: US, France, and UK CPI; Eurozone industrial production
- January 16, 2025: Australia unemployment, Germany CPI
- January 17, 2025: Eurozone CPI, US industrial Production
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 13, 2025
Date Issued – 13th January 2025
Asian Stocks Slide and Oil Surges Amid Key Economic Events
Asian stocks slid as strong US jobs data dampened hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while Brent crude surged past $81 on new Russian oil sanctions, raising inflation risks. The pound faces potential declines amid UK fiscal concerns, with sterling hitting a 14-month low. The dollar strengthened to its highest since 2022 on US economic resilience, pressuring other currencies. China’s central bank pledged to boost consumption but faces structural challenges. EV battery giant CATL plans a $5 billion Hong Kong listing, while TSMC anticipates a 58% profit surge on AI chip demand despite geopolitical risks. Lithium prices are set to stabilize in 2025 as the EV market grows, easing oversupply concerns. Investors should brace for volatility, monitor energy markets, currency shifts, and geopolitical developments, and assess opportunities in AI, EVs, and consumer sectors.
Asian Stocks Drop, Oil Surges Amid Russia Sanctions
Asian markets fell alongside bonds after stronger-than-expected US jobs data dampened hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.1%, with Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea leading losses. Chinese stocks extended declines despite record export figures, as investors await pro-consumption policies. Brent crude surged past $81 a barrel, hitting a four-month high after the US unveiled sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, adding inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened, and China stepped up efforts to stabilize the yuan, which neared record lows in offshore trading.
Investment Insight:
Surging oil prices and reduced Fed rate-cut expectations suggest heightened inflation risks ahead. Investors should monitor energy markets and central bank policy shifts closely for portfolio adjustments.
Pound Faces Potential 8% Drop Amid Fiscal Concerns
Pound traders are bracing for a potential 8% drop as fiscal challenges weigh on the UK currency. Options data shows strong demand for contracts betting on sterling falling below $1.20, with some targeting $1.12 — levels not seen in over two years. Last week, UK assets tumbled amid sticky inflation, fiscal concerns, and high borrowing costs, prompting comparisons to the 2022 mini-budget crisis. While UK officials emphasized market stability, sentiment remains bearish, with hedge funds increasing bets against the pound. Sterling slid further Monday, hitting $1.2145, its lowest since November 2023.
Investment Insight:
Ongoing fiscal uncertainty and global rate dynamics suggest further downside risk for the pound. Investors should assess exposure to UK assets and consider hedging strategies to manage volatility.

Dollar Surges as U.S. Jobs Data Highlights Economic Strength
The dollar rallied to its highest level since November 2022, driven by robust U.S. jobs data that underscored the economy’s resilience. The euro fell to $1.0216, its weakest in over two years, while sterling hit a 14-month low of $1.2138 amid domestic fiscal concerns. The Chinese yuan saw modest gains after Beijing relaxed borrowing rules to stabilize the currency, though it remains near a 16-month low. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars traded near multi-year lows, reflecting weak sentiment. Markets are now pricing in fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2025, with inflation risks heightened by President-elect Trump’s incoming policies.
Investment Insight:
The dollar’s strength signals a shift in global capital flows, favoring U.S. assets. Investors should consider exposure to dollar-denominated investments while monitoring inflation data and Fed policy for further cues.
TSMC Q4 Profit Expected to Surge 58% on AI Chip Demand
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is projected to report a 58% jump in fourth-quarter profit to T$377.95 billion ($11.41 billion) on Thursday, fueled by surging demand for AI chips from clients like Apple and Nvidia. The company’s revenue already exceeded expectations, driven by the global AI megatrend. However, TSMC faces challenges, including U.S. technology restrictions on China and potential tariffs under President-elect Trump. TSMC continues heavy investments in overseas fabs, including a $65 billion project in Arizona, with progress on production yields closely watched. TSMC’s stock soared 81% last year, outpacing broader market gains.
Investment Insight:
TSMC’s AI-driven growth highlights its critical role in advanced chipmaking. Yet, geopolitical risks and rising capital expenditures may pressure margins. Investors should weigh long-term growth potential against near-term uncertainties.
Market Price: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) – TWD 1,075.00
China to Prioritize Consumption Over Investment, Says PBOC
China’s central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, announced a policy shift toward boosting consumption alongside investment to drive economic growth. Speaking at the Asian Financial Forum, Pan emphasized raising incomes, increasing subsidies, and improving social security to stimulate domestic demand. The move comes as China faces sluggish consumer confidence, persistent deflation, and the threat of higher U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump. While incremental measures, such as trade-in programs for appliances and cars, have been introduced, the policy mix still leans heavily on investment. Pan also reassured markets about the yuan’s stability and signs of improvement in the property market.
Investment Insight:
China’s pivot to consumption-led growth signals potential opportunities in consumer-focused sectors. However, structural challenges and policy uncertainty warrant a cautious approach to Chinese equities.
CATL Plans $5 Billion Hong Kong Listing
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world’s largest EV battery maker and a key Tesla supplier, is set to hire Bank of America, CICC, CSC Financial, and JPMorgan as lead arrangers for a $5 billion Hong Kong listing, potentially one of the city’s largest offerings in recent years. CATL’s board approved the secondary listing in December, with the final size and timeline still under consideration. The move reflects a broader trend of China-listed firms pursuing second listings in Hong Kong amid increased deal activity. CATL’s shares, listed in Shenzhen, have fallen 7.2% this year, giving it a $150 billion market value.
Investment Insight:
CATL’s secondary listing could enhance liquidity and valuation opportunities. Investors should watch for regulatory developments and market reactions, especially amid geopolitical concerns surrounding Chinese firms.
Lithium Prices Set to Stabilize in 2025 Amid Reduced Glut
Lithium prices are expected to stabilize in 2025 after plummeting nearly 86% over two years, as mine closures and robust EV sales in China ease oversupply. Analysts project the global lithium surplus to shrink to 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), down from 150,000 tons in 2024. China’s doubled EV subsidies drove a late-2024 demand boost, with lithium prices forecast to average $11,092 per metric ton this year. However, analysts caution that mine reopenings and potential U.S. policy changes under President-elect Trump could cap price gains.
Investment Insight:
Stabilizing lithium prices signal recovery potential for EV battery supply chains. Investors should monitor Chinese policy support and U.S. trade risks while assessing opportunities in lithium producers and EV-related sectors.
Conclusion
In a volatile global landscape, markets are grappling with surging oil prices, strong U.S. economic data, and shifting central bank policies. Currency pressures persist, with the dollar strengthening while the pound and yuan face headwinds. China’s pivot to consumption-driven growth and CATL’s Hong Kong listing highlight opportunities in Asia, though geopolitical risks loom. TSMC’s AI-fueled growth underscores innovation’s role in driving profits, while stabilizing lithium prices signal recovery in EV supply chains. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing near-term uncertainties with long-term opportunities across energy, technology, and consumer sectors, while closely monitoring inflation, fiscal policies, and geopolitical developments.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 13, 2025: India CPI
- January 14, 2025: US PPI
- January 15, 2025: US, France, and UK CPI; Eurozone industrial production
- January 16, 2025: Australia unemployment, Germany CPI
- January 17, 2025: Eurozone CPI, US industrial production
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 10, 2025
Date Issued – 10th January 2025
Preview
Global markets are bracing for key U.S. jobs data, with Asian equities slipping and Treasury yields steadying. Meanwhile, Biden’s expanded AI chip export curbs target adversarial nations but face pushback from Nvidia, as Trump’s incoming administration could revise the policy. In China, Zijin Mining eyes a $6.4 billion acquisition of Zangge Mining to expand its lithium footprint amid a steep price crash. TSMC outperformed forecasts in Q4, driven by AI chip demand from clients like Apple and Nvidia. Oil is on its longest rally since July, fueled by tightening supplies, falling U.S. inventories, and geopolitical concerns as Trump’s policies on drilling and trade loom.
Markets on Edge Ahead of US Jobs Data, China Yields Rise
Asian equities slipped for a third consecutive session as investors exercised caution ahead of US nonfarm payroll data, which could shape Federal Reserve policy. MSCI’s Asia benchmark fell, while S&P 500 futures remained flat after the US market closure for Jimmy Carter’s national day of mourning. Treasury yields steadied after this week’s surge, while Chinese bond yields rose following the People’s Bank of China’s suspension of government bond purchases. The yuan edged higher, though risks from US yield movements persist. Meanwhile, the Fed signaled prolonged higher rates, citing fiscal deficits and resilient consumer spending.
Investment Insight: Caution dominates markets as key US labor data looms. Investors should monitor Treasury yield trends and Fed signals closely, as these will influence equity and currency markets globally.
Biden Tightens AI Chip Export Curbs, Nvidia Pushes Back
With days left in his presidency, Joe Biden is expanding AI chip export restrictions to adversarial nations like China and Russia, aiming to consolidate U.S. tech dominance and align global businesses with American standards. The policy introduces a three-tier system granting unrestricted access to close allies like Japan and Germany while limiting chip exports to most other nations. Nvidia criticized the move, warning it could stifle economic growth and U.S. leadership in AI. The decision’s longevity remains uncertain as Donald Trump’s administration may revise it post-inauguration.
Investment Insight: Tighter chip export curbs could disrupt global supply chains and challenge U.S. chipmakers’ growth in key markets. Investors should monitor policy shifts under the incoming administration for potential opportunities or risks in the AI sector.
Market price: Nvidia Corp (NVDA): USD 140.11
China’s Zijin Eyes Takeover of $6 Billion Lithium Miner
Zijin Mining Group, a global leader in copper and gold, is advancing its push into lithium with talks to acquire shares in Zangge Mining, a Chinese producer valued at $6.4 billion. Zangge generates a third of its revenue from lithium extracted from salt lakes in Qinghai and plans further expansion in Tibet. Amid a steep 90% drop in lithium prices since late 2022, Zijin aims to capitalize on the EV-driven demand boom, targeting 300,000 tons of lithium production by 2028. A deal could lead to Zijin gaining control of Zangge, pending board approval.
Investment Insight: Zijin’s potential acquisition signals confidence in a lithium market rebound. Investors should watch for further consolidation in the sector as low prices drive opportunistic deals and position for long-term EV battery demand growth.
Market price: Zijin Mining Group (HKG 2899): HKD 15.18

TSMC’s Sales Beat Estimates, Strengthening AI Growth Outlook
TSMC’s quarterly revenue surged 39% to NT$868.5 billion ($26.3 billion), surpassing analysts’ expectations and reinforcing optimism about sustained AI hardware demand in 2025. As the key chip supplier for Nvidia and Apple, TSMC benefits from rapid datacenter expansion by tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet. However, concerns linger over potential overcapacity, power constraints, and geopolitical risks, including U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China. TSMC’s expansion plans include new facilities in Europe, Japan, and Arizona, signaling its long-term confidence in AI-driven growth despite short-term uncertainties.
Investment Insight: TSMC’s strong performance highlights AI’s transformative potential, but investors should monitor geopolitical tensions, capital expenditure trends, and evolving demand for advanced chips in 2025.
Market price: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC): TWD 1,100.00
Oil on Longest Weekly Winning Streak Since July
Oil prices are headed for a third consecutive weekly gain, with Brent crude rising above $77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate nearing $74. The rally is fueled by falling U.S. crude stockpiles, colder weather boosting heating fuel demand, and reduced Russian shipments. This comes despite weaker demand signals from China, where inflation is nearing zero. Market jitters over President-elect Trump’s policies on Iran and trade are also contributing to supply concerns, while Brent’s widening backwardation signals tighter market conditions.
Investment Insight: Oil’s rally reflects tightening supply dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty. Investors should track inventory levels and upcoming U.S. drilling policies, which could shift the supply-demand balance in the months ahead.
Conclusion
Markets are navigating uncertainty as U.S. jobs data, geopolitical shifts, and policy changes reshape the global landscape. From Biden’s AI chip export curbs to Zijin’s lithium expansion and TSMC’s strong AI-driven growth, investors face a mix of challenges and opportunities. Oil’s rally highlights tightening supplies and geopolitical risks, while China’s economic signals add to the cautious sentiment. Looking ahead, key policy shifts under the incoming U.S. administration and evolving market dynamics will be critical. Staying informed and agile will be essential as investors balance short-term volatility with long-term growth prospects across sectors.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 10, 2025: US Employment Report
- January 14, 2025: US PPI
- January 15, 2025: US CPI
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 9, 2025
Date Issued – 9th January 2025
Preview
Indonesia’s potential nickel quota cuts in 2025 could slash global supply by 35%, according to Macquarie, risking price surges due to tightened markets. Foreign investors are locking in gains from Japan’s strong 2024 equity performance, while China’s record offshore yuan bill issuance signals efforts to stabilize its currency amid economic challenges. Wildfires in Southern California are projected to cause up to $57 billion in damages, impacting utility stocks like Edison International and PG&E. Meanwhile, pound options trading surged as markets brace for volatility tied to UK fiscal concerns and global economic risks. Investors face a landscape of heightened uncertainty across commodities, currencies, and equities.
Indonesia’s Nickel Cuts Could Slash Global Supply by 35%
Indonesia may significantly lower its nickel mine quotas in 2025, potentially removing over a third of global supply, according to Macquarie Group. The government is considering reducing quotas from 272 million tons in 2024 to as low as 150 million tons this year—a drastic 40% below Macquarie’s base case. While the bank sees cuts of that scale as unlikely, any reduction in output from the world’s top producer of nickel could drive prices higher. Nickel prices have already faced pressure from oversupply and weakened demand but may be influenced by Chinese stimulus efforts and U.S. tariff policies in 2025.
Investment Insight
Nickel markets are volatile, with Indonesian production acting as a crucial supply lever. Potential quota cuts could tighten supply, presenting upside risks for prices. Investors should monitor Indonesian policy developments and Chinese economic recovery efforts closely.
Foreign Investors Sell Japanese Stocks to Lock in 2024 Gains
Foreign investors became net sellers of Japanese stocks in the week ending Jan. 4, offloading 74 billion yen ($468 million) after a strong 2024 that saw the Nikkei index rise 19.22%, its second-best performance in 11 years. Profit-taking followed heavy buying earlier in the year, with foreigners acquiring 1.23 trillion yen of Japanese equities in 2024 but selling 4.77 trillion yen in the latter half. Despite the equity sell-off, foreign investors purchased 227.5 billion yen of Japanese debt last week, reversing a three-week selling streak. Meanwhile, Japanese investors continued their trend of buying foreign equities but sold off foreign bonds for a third consecutive week.
Investment Insight
The shift to net selling reflects profit-taking and risk management as markets adjust to a strong 2024. Investors should track foreign fund flows and monitor Japanese debt as a potential safe haven amid global economic uncertainty.

China Boosts Yuan Support With Record Offshore Bill Issuance
China’s central bank will issue a record 60 billion yuan ($8.2 billion) of six-month bills in Hong Kong on Jan. 15 to tighten offshore liquidity and curb yuan depreciation. This marks the largest offshore bill issuance since 2018 and highlights Beijing’s efforts to stabilize the currency amid economic sluggishness and tariff uncertainties. The move is expected to make shorting the yuan more expensive and reflects the People’s Bank of China’s commitment to preventing excessive currency weakening. Analysts warn that tighter liquidity may persist, keeping offshore yuan funding constrained in the near term.
Investment Insight
The PBOC’s aggressive liquidity measures signal its determination to stabilize the yuan but could lead to further market tightness. Investors should brace for continued yuan volatility and monitor the impact of global interest rate differentials and trade policies on China’s currency.
Wildfires Ravage Southern California, Driving Massive Costs
Southern California wildfires are projected to cause $52-57 billion in damages, making them the most expensive U.S. wildfire in history. Blazes in affluent areas like Malibu, where median home values exceed $2 million, have led to 80,000 evacuations and the destruction of 1,000 structures. Hurricane-force winds continue to fuel the devastation, with smoke exposure and damage to tourism adding to long-term impacts. For comparison, California’s 2018 Camp Fire caused $30 billion in damages, while Hurricane Katrina remains the costliest U.S. disaster at $200 billion.
Edison International (EIX) shares fell 10.18% after its subsidiary, Southern California Edison, cut power to 70,000 customers to prevent fire risks. The Palisades Fire alone could result in $10 billion in insured losses. PG&E (PCG) shares declined 3.65%, as utilities face growing scrutiny over liabilities and service disruptions.
Investment Insight
The dual impact of surging wildfire costs and utility stock losses highlights the growing financial risks linked to climate change. Investors should monitor utility companies’ exposure to liabilities, rising insurance premiums, and regulatory pressures, while also evaluating the broader implications for real estate, infrastructure, and local economies in disaster-prone regions.
Market price: Edison International (EIX): USD 69.50
Pound Options Surge as Markets Fear ‘Truss Redux’ Scenario
Pound options trading hit its highest level since the 2022 mini-budget crisis under Liz Truss, with volumes surging to £13.7 billion ($16.9 billion) on Jan. 8, triple the previous day’s activity. Traders increasingly bet on a weaker pound, with some targeting a drop to $1.15, reflecting growing concerns over UK debt sustainability, inflation, and potential U.S. tariffs. Sterling fell over 1% on Wednesday to its lowest since April, while three-month implied volatility rose to its highest since 2023. Bearish put options on the pound have seen strong demand as traders brace for further volatility, particularly ahead of U.S. payroll data.
Investment Insight
The pound faces mounting pressure from economic uncertainty and global headwinds. Investors should monitor UK inflation, fiscal policies, and U.S. labor market data, as these factors could drive further currency and gilt market volatility.
Conclusion
Indonesia’s potential nickel supply cuts, China’s yuan stabilization efforts, and the fallout from Southern California’s record-breaking wildfires underscore the growing global economic and environmental challenges. Meanwhile, profit-taking in Japanese equities and heightened volatility in UK pound options reflect shifting investor sentiment amid uncertain fiscal policies and geopolitical pressures. From commodities to currencies and equities, markets are navigating a complex web of risks, driven by policy changes, climate impacts, and economic headwinds. As 2025 unfolds, investors must stay vigilant, tracking critical developments across global supply chains, fiscal strategies, and environmental risks to navigate this turbulent landscape effectively.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 9, 2025: China CPI, PPI
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 8, 2025
Date Issued – 8th January 2025
Preview
Asian stocks slid sharply on inflation fears and concerns over China’s economic outlook, with MSCI’s regional index posting its steepest drop in two weeks. Tesla shares fell 4% after Bank of America downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing execution risks despite a price target boost. Samsung shares rose 3.1%, buoyed by Nvidia’s confidence in its AI memory progress, though it missed Q4 profit expectations. Tencent executed its largest buyback since 2006 after a U.S. blacklist triggered a selloff, but geopolitical risks remain a concern. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam surged past $110 billion amid a weak dong and looming tariff threats from the incoming administration.
Asian Stocks Slide on Inflation Fears and China Worries
Asian equities fell sharply, mirroring Wall Street’s losses, as inflation concerns triggered a selloff in US Treasuries and investor sentiment soured over China’s economic outlook. MSCI’s regional index marked its steepest drop in over two weeks, with China’s benchmark hitting its lowest level since September amid fears of US tariff hikes. Meanwhile, Chinese government bond yields hit record lows, reflecting deep pessimism despite recent stimulus measures. Indian stocks also declined following a lowered growth forecast, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics outperformed on optimism around its tech solutions.
Investment Insight
The global economic landscape remains fragile, with inflation risks and geopolitical tensions weighing heavily on markets. Investors should consider diversifying across sectors and geographies, focusing on high-quality assets and opportunities in resilient markets like onshore Chinese equities benefiting from policy support.
Tesla Downgraded by Bank of America Despite Price Target Boost
Bank of America downgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral from Buy, citing high execution risks despite raising the stock’s price target to $490 from $400. Analyst John Murphy noted that Tesla’s current valuation reflects much of its long-term potential, including its core automotive business, robotaxi ambitions, and energy solutions. While Murphy remains optimistic about Tesla’s ability to grow its market share to 5% globally and launch new models, he flagged challenges such as scaling the robotaxi division, navigating regulatory hurdles, and competing with Chinese EV makers. Tesla shares fell 4% following the news.
Investment Insight
Tesla’s valuation may already price in much of its growth potential. Investors should monitor execution risks and focus on developments in its robotaxi rollout, new model launches, and regulatory dynamics, which could significantly impact the stock’s trajectory.
Market price: Tesla Inc (TSLA): USD 394.36

Samsung Shares Rise Despite Profit Miss, Buoyed by Nvidia Optimism
Samsung Electronics shares climbed as much as 3.1% despite missing profit expectations for Q4, after Nvidia’s founder Jensen Huang voiced confidence in Samsung’s ability to resolve technical challenges with high-bandwidth memory for AI applications. Samsung reported a preliminary operating profit of 6.5 trillion won ($4.5 billion), falling short of the 8.96 trillion won analysts expected, as heavy R&D spending and weak demand for mobile and legacy chips weighed on results. The company is racing to regain market share in the lucrative AI memory space, lagging behind competitors SK Hynix and Micron. Investors remain cautious about Samsung’s ability to catch up as it grapples with weak chip demand and aggressive competition in consumer electronics.
Investment Insight
Samsung’s recovery in AI memory could take time, but the sector’s long-term growth potential remains attractive. Investors should monitor its progress in AI chip certification and market share gains while weighing risks from weak mobile chip demand and rising competition.
Market price: Samsung Electronics Co Ltd. (KRX 005930): KRW 57,300
Tencent Executes Largest Buyback Since 2006 Following US Blacklist
Tencent repurchased 3.93 million Hong Kong-listed shares on Tuesday, the largest buyback since 2006, after its stock plunged 7.3% upon being added to a US blacklist over alleged ties to the Chinese military. The HK$1.5 billion ($193 million) buyback reflects Tencent’s effort to contain the fallout and reassure investors. Mainland investors also showed confidence, buying HK$14 billion in Tencent shares via stock connect programs. Tencent denied the allegations and pledged to cooperate with the US Department of Defense. Despite the buyback, geopolitical tensions remain a key overhang, with shares slipping another 2% on Wednesday.
Investment Insight
Tencent’s buyback signals confidence in its valuation, but heightened geopolitical risks could deter some investors. Long-term holders may find value at current levels, while staying alert to further regulatory or political developments.
Market price: Tencent Holdings Ltd (HKG: 0700): HKD 370.20
US-Vietnam Trade Deficit Surges Amid Weak Dong and Tariff Threats
The U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam soared to over $110 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, up nearly 18% from 2023, as a record depreciation of the dong bolstered Vietnamese exports. Vietnam is now the fourth-largest contributor to the U.S. trade gap, behind China, the EU, and Mexico. This growing surplus raises risks for Vietnam, as President-elect Donald Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 20% on U.S. imports. Washington is also scrutinizing Vietnam for potential currency manipulation, though the central bank denies deliberate intervention. The dong’s depreciation aligns with broader currency trends, but risks remain as U.S.-Vietnam trade tensions escalate.
Investment Insight
The weak dong and Vietnam’s export boom could face headwinds if U.S. tariffs materialize. Investors in Vietnam’s export-reliant sectors should brace for potential trade friction while monitoring policy shifts under the new U.S. administration.
Conclusion
Global markets face mounting pressures from inflation, geopolitical tensions, and shifting trade dynamics. Asia’s selloff underscores investor unease over China’s outlook and U.S.-Vietnam trade risks, while companies like Samsung and Tencent grapple with challenges but show resilience through buybacks and strategic pivots. Tesla’s downgrade highlights execution risks even in high-growth sectors, reminding investors to balance optimism with caution. As policy shifts and economic uncertainty loom, opportunities may lie in resilient sectors and regions positioned to weather volatility. Stay alert to evolving trends in AI, trade policy, and inflation to navigate the complex global landscape effectively.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 8, 2025: Eurozone PPI, Consumer confidence
- January 9, 2025: China CPI, PPI
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.