Key Points

• OpenAI inks $38B AWS pact, Amazon hits record: OpenAI shifts compute to AWS’s Nvidia GPUs, diversifying beyond Microsoft; AMZN rallies as the deal underscores hyperscaler capex momentum and AI infrastructure scarcity.
• Aramco beats on higher output amid soft crude: Q3 adjusted net income rose to ~$28B; OPEC+ plans modest December hike while pausing further increases in Q1, keeping supply guidance in focus against new Russia sanctions.
• Palantir raises outlook on AI demand: Q3 revenue topped forecasts with U.S. government sales up 52%; FY guidance and FCF outlook increased, though valuation risk remains after a 170% YTD share surge.
• Asia equities retreat on profit-taking, Fed ambiguity: Nikkei, Kospi and CSI 300 pull back from highs as mixed Fed signals and weak ISM data curb December cut odds; dollar spikes then fades, oil and gold edge lower.

Amazon Rallies to Record on $38B OpenAI–AWS Compute Pact

Amazon shares closed 4% higher at a record after OpenAI signed a $38 billion multi-year capacity deal with Amazon Web Services, immediately tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs and securing room to scale through 2026.

The agreement marks OpenAI’s biggest step away from Microsoft’s once-exclusive cloud, following the lapse of Microsoft’s preferential status and parallel cloud tie-ups with Oracle and Google.

For AWS, the win bolsters momentum after >20% YoY growth last quarter and counters faster expansion at Azure and Google Cloud.

The stock’s two-day gain of 14%—its best since November 2022—reflects investor confidence that AI infrastructure demand will drive high-margin cloud revenue.

Aramco Edges Past Estimates as Volume Gains Offset Softer Crude

Saudi Aramco reported Q3 adjusted net income of 104.92 billion riyals ($27.98 billion), narrowly up 0.9% and ahead of the 98.47 billion consensus, as higher output partially offset a weaker price backdrop (WTI and Brent down ~16% and ~12% YTD through September).

Revenue reached 418.16 billion riyals, free cash flow rose to $23.6 billion, and net debt eased to 114.33 billion riyals; the board affirmed a $21.1 billion base dividend plus $0.2 billion performance payout for Q4.

The print lands amid OPEC+’s modest December uplift (+137 kb/d) and a planned pause in Q1 hikes, while new U.S. sanctions on Russian majors complicate supply.

Strategically, Aramco lifted its Petro Rabigh stake to ~60% and added a minority position in AI firm HUMAIN, signaling continued downstream and digital expansion.

Palantir Surges Past Q3 Estimates, Lifts Guidance on AI Momentum

Palantir beat third-quarter forecasts with adjusted EPS of $0.21 versus $0.17 expected and revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63% year-on-year, citing surging adoption of its artificial intelligence platform across government and commercial sectors.

U.S. government sales climbed 52% to $486 million, while domestic commercial revenue more than doubled to $397 million, with total contract value quadrupling to $1.31 billion.

The company raised full-year guidance to $4.4 billion in revenue and $1.9–$2.1 billion in free cash flow.

Despite concerns about stretched valuation—shares are up 170% YTD—Palantir’s results underscore its entrenched government ties, expanding commercial reach, and leverage from the AI infrastructure boom.

Asia Stocks Retreat from Record Highs as Profit-Taking, Fed Uncertainty Weigh

Asian equities pulled back sharply from record highs on Tuesday, with investors locking in gains from recent tech-led rallies amid soft U.S. data and uncertainty over further Fed rate cuts.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed early gains to close down 1.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.3% and China’s CSI 300 fell 1.1%.

The U.S. dollar climbed to a nine-month peak versus the yen and a three-month high against the euro before retreating on haven demand.

Diverging signals from Fed officials—some calling for deeper cuts, others urging caution—added to volatility, while weaker ISM manufacturing data deepened growth concerns.

Brent crude slid 0.4% to $64.65 as markets interpreted OPEC+’s Q1 output pause as a sign of potential oversupply.

Conclusion

Tech-driven momentum—fueled by Amazon’s record-setting AI deal and Palantir’s robust outlook—continues to highlight the structural demand for compute infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Aramco’s steady earnings and OPEC+ supply discipline reinforce oil’s stabilization narrative, even as softer prices linger.

In Asia, profit-taking underscored fragility after record highs, while conflicting Fed commentary kept traders guessing on December’s policy path.

Global markets entered the week on a cautious note as investors weighed upbeat corporate results against shifting monetary expectations and geopolitical recalibration. The balance between optimism in corporate innovation and macro restraint remains the key determinant of near-term market direction.

Investment Insights

• Quality over momentum in AI software: Palantir’s beat/raise shows enterprise AI spend consolidating to scaled vendors; favor cash-generative platforms over high-multiple, pre-scale stories.
• Energy cash returns remain resilient: Aramco’s beat amid soft crude underscores low break-evens and shareholder payout capacity; maintain barbelled exposure—integrated majors plus select midstream.
• Trim into Asia’s peak prints: Broad profit-taking after record highs and a firmer dollar argues for tightening risk budgets in North Asia cyclicals.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 3, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Benchmark read on factory activity that shapes growth and Fed expectations; released on the first U.S. business day each month.
November 4, 2025	Australia — RBA Interest Rate Decision	Sets the AUD policy rate; guidance steers risk sentiment across Asia and commodities.
November 4–5, 2025	Japan — BoJ Meeting Minutes (Nov)	Offers clues on policy normalization timing and yield-curve stance, impacting JPY and global rates.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ADP National Employment Report (Oct)	Early private-payrolls signal ahead of official jobs data; key for labor momentum and rate-path pricing.
November 5, 2025	Germany — Factory Orders (Sep)	High-frequency gauge of eurozone industrial demand and recession risk in Europe’s largest economy.
November 5, 2025	Eurozone/UK — Services PMIs (Oct, final)	Services drive most GDP; readings steer ECB/BoE expectations and EUR/GBP moves.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ISM Services PMI (Oct)	Key barometer for the U.S. services engine—implications for growth resilience, inflation pressure, and yields.

Sources: Investing.com economic calendar; ISM release schedule; ADP release calendar; XTB weekly calendar; ASX RBA Rate Indicator.

Key Points

• Asia Stocks Advance: Kospi hit a record 4,221.87 as Asia markets climbed despite mixed China PMIs (private 50.6 vs 50.9 expected; official 49.0); RBA meeting in focus after hot Q3 inflation, with sentiment aided by Friday’s Wall St gains.
• Rare Earths Boom: U.S.-listed rare earths miners extended triple-digit surges as the critical-minerals race accelerates; Beijing’s one-year delay to new export controls post Trump–Xi offers near-term relief amid structurally rising EV/AI/clean-energy demand.
• OPEC+ Taps Brakes: Group added a modest 137k b/d for December and signaled a Q1 2026 pause to avoid a glut; Brent hovered near $65 and WTI ~$61 as Russian sanctions complicate supply dynamics ahead of the Nov. 30 meeting.
• U.S.–India Strains: India now faces a 50% U.S. tariff rate—above China’s ~47% post-truce—highlighting a more transactional U.S. posture; a new 10-year defense framework tempers risks but policy uncertainty clouds trade-exposed sectors.

Asia Stocks Advance Despite Mixed China PMIs; Kospi Sets Record, RBA in Focus

Asia-Pacific equities mostly gained as investors looked past mixed China readings—private October manufacturing PMI at 50.6 (vs 50.9 expected) and the official gauge at 49.0—to a stronger risk tone.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.78% to a record 4,221.87 (Kosdaq +1.57%), while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.97% to 26,158.36 and China’s CSI 300 added 0.27% to 4,653.4.

Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.15% ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s two-day meeting, where a hold is widely expected after hot Q3 inflation; Japan was shut for a holiday.

Wall Street’s Friday gains (Nasdaq +0.61%, S&P 500 +0.26%, Dow little changed) underpinned sentiment.

Rare Earths Surge as Critical Minerals Race Intensifies; Truce Delay Fuels Momentum

U.S.-listed rare earths miners extended a torrid run amid intensifying competition to secure critical minerals: over the past three months, Critical Metals is up 241%, while NioCorp, Energy Fuels and Idaho Strategic Resources have each surged well above 100%; year-to-date, Energy Fuels has quadrupled and NioCorp has nearly quintupled.

The rally drew fresh support after Beijing agreed to delay new rare-earth export controls by one year following the Trump–Xi meeting, easing near-term supply risk.

Still, analysts caution that speculative froth sits atop a structural shift driven by clean-energy, EV and AI demand, with supply diversification likely lengthy and volatile.

OPEC+ Adds 137k b/d for December, Plans Q1 2026 Pause to Head Off Glut

OPEC+ approved a modest 137,000 b/d increase for December—matching October and November—then signaled a pause in January–March 2026 as the group tempers its market-share push amid oversupply risks.

Since April, output targets are up ~2.9 mb/d (~2.7% of global supply), but new U.S./UK sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil complicate further hikes.

With Q1 typically the weakest demand quarter, the pause aims to stabilize balances. Brent settled Friday at $65.07 (+$0.07) and WTI at $60.98 (+$0.41), moves largely anticipated by the market.

The eight-member core meets again on Nov. 30 alongside a full OPEC+ gathering.

U.S.–India Ties Strain as Tariffs Top China’s; Strategic Alignment in Question

India now faces a 50% effective U.S. tariff rate—above China’s ~47% after last week’s Trump–Xi trade truce—underscoring a shift toward a more transactional U.S. stance that has cooled a two-decade strategic courtship.

Experts cite missing “leader-level” chemistry, new frictions from H1B fees and Washington’s posture on India–Pakistan tensions.

While both sides inked a 10-year defense framework to deepen coordination and tech cooperation, investors see a muddier policy backdrop: India could be pushed closer to Russia and the Global South even as supply-chain dependence on China persists, leaving trade-sensitive sectors exposed to headline risk and slower investment decisions.

Conclusion

Markets opened the week with a constructive bias: Asia equities advanced despite mixed China PMIs, Korea setting fresh highs, while rare earths names extended outsized gains on geopolitics-driven supply themes.

Energy remains range-bound as OPEC+ adds a small December increase but signals a Q1 pause to preempt a glut, reinforcing a floor near current levels.

Policy remains the wild card: a U.S.–China truce reduces headline risk, but U.S.–India frictions and sanctions on Russia complicate trade and supply chains.

Positioning favors quality cyclicals tied to AI/industrial spending, selective commodities exposure, and disciplined hedging against policy reversals and demand softness near term.

Investment Insights

• Rare earths positioning: Barbell upstream (low-cost producers with processing capacity) and downstream (magnets/EV components).
• Energy stance: Expect range-bound crude into Q1 on OPEC+ pause and weak seasonal demand.
• India risk management: Tariff overhang argues for a neutral weight near term.
• China exposure: Focus on policy-aligned themes (AI infrastructure, grid upgrades) over broad cyclicals; pair with downside protection given uncertain flow dynamics.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
November 3, 2025	U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Benchmark read on factory activity that shapes growth and Fed expectations; released on the first U.S. business day each month.
November 4, 2025	Australia — RBA Interest Rate Decision	Sets the AUD policy rate; guidance steers risk sentiment across Asia and commodities.
November 4–5, 2025	Japan — BoJ Meeting Minutes (Nov)	Offers clues on policy normalization timing and yield-curve stance, impacting JPY and global rates.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ADP National Employment Report (Oct)	Early private-payrolls signal ahead of official jobs data; key for labor momentum and rate-path pricing.
November 5, 2025	Germany — Factory Orders (Sep)	High-frequency gauge of eurozone industrial demand and recession risk in Europe’s largest economy.
November 5, 2025	Eurozone/UK — Services PMIs (Oct, final)	Services drive most GDP; readings steer ECB/BoE expectations and EUR/GBP moves.
November 5, 2025	U.S. ISM Services PMI (Oct)	Key barometer for the U.S. services engine—implications for growth resilience, inflation pressure, and yields.

Sources: Investing.com economic calendar; ISM release schedule; ADP release calendar; XTB weekly calendar; ASX RBA Rate Indicator.

Key Points

• U.S.–China Trade Truce Lifts Market Sentiment: Trump and Xi reached a one-year agreement pausing rare earth export curbs and cutting U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, signaling a thaw in relations that eased global trade tensions.
• Fed Cuts Rates but Cautions on Future Easing: The Federal Reserve lowered rates to 3.75%–4% and announced the end of quantitative tightening, but Chair Powell warned that another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” tempering market optimism.
• Samsung Profit Surges on AI Chip Boom: Samsung’s Q3 operating profit more than doubled to 12.2 trillion won, driven by record memory chip sales for AI servers, as it reclaimed the global memory market lead from SK Hynix.
• Shell Extends Buybacks Amid Strong Results: Shell reported $5.4 billion in Q3 earnings, beating expectations and unveiling another $3.5 billion share buyback, sustaining investor confidence despite softer oil prices.

Trump, Xi Strike One-Year Trade Truce Focused on Rare Earths and Tariffs

The U.S. and China reached a limited one-year agreement on rare earth supplies and fentanyl-related tariffs following a closely watched meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea. Beijing agreed to delay its export controls on rare earth minerals by a year, while Washington halved tariffs on fentanyl-linked Chinese goods to 10%, reducing total duties on Chinese exports to 47%. In exchange, China pledged to curb fentanyl exports and resume U.S. agricultural purchases, including soybeans. Markets reacted positively, with China’s CSI Rare Earths Index rising over 2%, while soybean futures fell 1.6%. Analysts said the deal marks a tactical de-escalation rather than a structural shift, easing immediate tensions but leaving broader issues—like tech restrictions and industrial overcapacity—unresolved.

Fed Delivers Second Rate Cut, But Powell Tempers Market Optimism

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a second consecutive meeting, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%, while signaling caution about further easing. Chair Jerome Powell said another reduction in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” prompting traders to scale back expectations for continued rate cuts. The Fed also announced it will end quantitative tightening on December 1, marking a pause in its multi-year balance sheet reduction. Despite elevated inflation at 3% and moderating job growth, Powell emphasized growing concern about labor market softness. U.S. equities reversed early gains after his remarks, reflecting investor unease over a less dovish policy path.

Samsung Earnings Surge as AI Chip Demand Fuels Profit Rebound

Samsung Electronics reported a sharp rebound in third-quarter earnings, with operating profit more than doubling to 12.2 trillion won ($8.6 billion) on booming demand for memory chips used in artificial intelligence servers. Revenue rose nearly 9% year-over-year to 86.1 trillion won, beating analyst expectations and signaling a strong recovery in the company’s semiconductor division. Memory chip sales hit a record 33.1 trillion won, propelling Samsung’s Device Solutions unit to a tenfold profit increase from the previous quarter. The company also regained the global memory market lead from SK Hynix after passing Nvidia’s qualification tests for advanced HBM chips. Samsung expects sustained AI-driven data center investments to keep fueling growth into 2026.

Shell Beats Profit Estimates, Launches $3.5 Billion Share Buyback

Shell reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings of $5.4 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts and supported by solid operational performance and trading strength. The energy major announced a new $3.5 billion share buyback program over the next three months—its 16th consecutive quarter of repurchases exceeding $3 billion. Although adjusted earnings fell nearly 10% year-on-year, Shell’s results highlighted improved cash flow discipline, with net debt reduced to $41.2 billion. Year-to-date, Shell’s shares have gained over 16%, outperforming peers as investors reward its consistent shareholder returns and resilient performance amid a softer crude price environment.

Conclusion

Global markets ended the week on a cautiously optimistic note as easing U.S.–China trade tensions and strong corporate earnings offset lingering monetary uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut, coupled with its pause on balance sheet reduction, underscored a measured approach to supporting growth amid elevated inflation risks. Meanwhile, corporate strength from Samsung and Shell reinforced investor confidence in both technology and energy sectors, highlighting divergent but resilient growth drivers. As trade diplomacy stabilizes and earnings momentum continues, investors remain focused on how monetary signals and geopolitical recalibration will shape risk sentiment heading into year-end.

Investment Insights

• Trade Easing Boosts Risk Appetite: The U.S.–China tariff rollback reduces short-term volatility across commodities and equities, favoring cyclical sectors such as industrials and semiconductors.
• Monetary Policy Uncertainty Persists: The Fed’s cautious tone signals a potential pause in easing, suggesting investors should maintain balanced exposure between growth and defensive assets.
• AI Infrastructure Drives Tech Momentum: Samsung’s strong AI chip demand confirms continued capital inflows into semiconductor and cloud infrastructure plays, reinforcing the long-term tech investment theme.
• Energy Majors Reward Shareholders: Shell’s consistent buybacks amid moderating oil prices point to sustained cash flow resilience—supporting dividend-focused and income-oriented portfolios.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 31, 2025	Eurozone Flash HICP (Inflation)	Key read on price pressures shaping ECB policy path and euro-area rate expectations.
October 31, 2025	China NBS Manufacturing & Services PMIs	First-look at China’s growth momentum and global demand pulse amid structural challenges.
October 31, 2025	U.S. CPI (September, delayed release)	Inflation snapshot crucial for Fed policy outlook and risk-asset positioning, especially under data uncertainty.
October 30, 2025	U.S.–China Bilateral Meeting (Trump–Xi, APEC)	Potential trade détente affects tariffs, supply chains, rare-earth access and global risk sentiment.
November 1, 2025	Deadline for U.S. 100% Tariffs on Chinese Goods	A consummation or delay of tariff action will have significant implications for manufacturing, global trade and investor confidence.

Key Points

• Fed Liquidity Watch: Strains in short-term lending point to tighter cash conditions, increasing the chance the Fed pauses its balance-sheet reductions to stabilize funding.
• Australia Inflation Re-Accelerates: Q3 prices rose 3.2% year over year, topping forecasts and likely delaying any rate cuts as the central bank prioritizes stubborn housing and services costs.
• Nvidia Expands in the U.S.: The company’s most advanced AI chips are now being produced in Arizona, strengthening domestic supply while policy limits on China remain a key risk.
• U.S.–China Tech Dialogue: Trump’s plan to discuss Nvidia chips with Xi raises the prospect of limited export allowances to China—supportive for sales but potentially narrowing the U.S. tech edge.

Front-End Strain Puts QT on the Line

Short-term funding pressure has pushed repo rates toward the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) ceiling, with persistent facility usage, reserves dipping below $3 trillion, and heavy T-bill issuance tightening liquidity.

Analysts increasingly frame an early end to quantitative tightening (QT) as a form of risk management, even as some argue that the true driver is not reserve scarcity but an oversupply of collateral.

Australia: Hotter CPI Delays RBA Easing

Australia’s Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.2% year-over-year, with the trimmed mean rising to 3.0%, moving inflation back above the central bank’s target range and stalling previous signs of disinflation.

Markets responded with tighter financial conditions—Australian equities (ASX) moved lower and the AUD strengthened. Rate-cut expectations were pushed out, with the base case now favoring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holding its cash rate at 3.6% through year-end.

Stubborn services and housing inflation remain key concerns, limiting support for longer-duration assets despite steady economic growth.

Nvidia Onshores Blackwell; Policy Pitch Intensifies

Nvidia has shifted production of its advanced Blackwell GPUs to Arizona, bolstering U.S. semiconductor supply resilience amid rising demand. Management has flagged a multi-hundred-billion-dollar opportunity in GPU sales.

The company also acquired a $1 billion stake in Nokia and is pushing into 5G/6G platforms, diversifying its end markets. However, U.S. export restrictions continue to pose headline risks, limiting China-related revenue.

While capital expenditure tailwinds are supportive, policy uncertainty and potential margin effects from onshoring remain important factors for investors to monitor.

Xi–Trump Talk Puts NVDA Export Path Back in Play

Former President Trump indicated that Blackwell chip exports may be on the table in his upcoming discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping, potentially allowing downgraded models (H20/B30A-class) to be exported to China.

China’s current import ban has left Nvidia “100% out of China,” so any export carve-out could aid China’s AI development while marginally narrowing the U.S. technological lead in compute power.

Nvidia’s datacenter visibility will depend on licensing scope, performance limits, and enforcement of export policies.

Conclusion

Liquidity stress in short-term funding markets, re-accelerating Australian inflation, and U.S. semiconductor policy are key themes shaping today’s cross-asset landscape.

Markets are adjusting to potential changes in QT timing and RBA policy while parsing the implications of inflation, growth dynamics, and FX movements.

In equities, resilience in the AI supply chain helps offset policy risks. In rates, issuance calendars and facility usage influence front-end pricing. In FX, AUD strength signals continued policy vigilance.

Geopolitical developments—especially in semiconductor trade—remain a major driver of risk sentiment and sector performance.

Investment Insights

• Liquidity & Policy: Front-end funding stress argues for maintaining ample cash buffers and flexible duration; treat QT timing as a macro volatility source rather than a directional rates call.
• Inflation Path: Re-acceleration risk (Australia) supports a “higher-for-longer” baseline; emphasize pricing power and services exposure over pure rate sensitivity.
• Tech Supply Chain: U.S. onshoring and export controls reshape semiconductor value chains; favor diversified beneficiaries (foundry equipment, advanced packaging, data-center power/cooling) over single-policy outcomes.
• Geopolitics & Compute Gap: Any partial reopening of China chip access narrows the U.S. compute advantage at the margin; balance AI upside with policy dispersion through broader infrastructure plays (cloud, connectivity) and regional diversification.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 29, 2025	Federal Reserve Rate Decision	Markets expect a 25 bp cut amid cooling labor data; outcome will steer credit conditions, bond yields, and equity valuations.
October 30, 2025	Trump–Xi Meeting (APEC, South Korea)	Potential reset in U.S.–China trade tensions with implications for tariffs, rare-earth supply chains, and global growth sentiment.
October 31, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Spending / Employment Cost Index	Monitors household demand and wage pressures—both critical for the Fed’s inflation outlook and for consumer-sensitive sectors.
November 1, 2025	Deadline for U.S. 100% Tariffs on Chinese Goods	Could trigger a major escalation in the trade war; delay or reversal would relieve pressure on global supply chains and manufacturing equities.

Key Points

• Saudi Arabia Accelerates Post-Oil Transition: The kingdom is channeling resources into AI, tourism, and sports, with over half its economy now decoupled from oil revenues as it targets sustainable, diversified growth.
• Google and NextEra Revive Nuclear Power for AI: The companies will restart Iowa’s Duane Arnold nuclear plant by 2029 to meet surging AI-driven electricity demand, underscoring a broader tech shift toward reliable, carbon-free energy.
• Tech Megacaps to Dictate Market Direction: Earnings from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft this week will determine near-term equity momentum, with investors watching cloud, AI, and consumer trends for guidance.
• Gold Retreats on Trade Optimism: Bullion fell over 2% to $3,900 per ounce as easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand, while markets awaited the Fed’s rate decision for signals on monetary policy trajectory.

Saudi Arabia Accelerates Economic Diversification with Bold Bet on AI

Saudi Arabia is intensifying its drive to reduce oil dependency by investing heavily in artificial intelligence, tourism, and sports. Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih said that more than half of the kingdom’s economy is now “completely decoupled” from oil, with 40% of government revenue stemming from non-oil sources.

Despite a 24% decline in oil revenue in the first half of 2025, Saudi Arabia continues to expand its Public Investment Fund (PIF), now nearing $1 trillion in capital, and plans to become a major AI hub through large-scale data centers and infrastructure development.

The tourism sector—now 5% of GDP—is projected to reach 10% by 2030 as the kingdom opens new resorts, airlines, and airports to attract international visitors.

Big Tech Turns to Nuclear to Feed AI Power Demands

Google and NextEra Energy plan to restart Iowa’s Duane Arnold nuclear plant by 2029, positioning nuclear power as critical infrastructure for the AI era.

The 615-megawatt facility, shuttered in 2020, would provide Google with round-the-clock carbon-free electricity for its expanding cloud and AI data centers while supplying excess power to Iowa’s grid.

U.S. electricity demand hit a record in 2024 as AI buildout accelerated, prompting tech firms to lock in long-duration, low-carbon baseload rather than rely solely on renewables.

Similar nuclear partnerships from Microsoft and Oracle suggest a structural shift: AI capacity growth is increasingly tied to energy security, not just compute scale.

Tech Giants’ Earnings Poised to Set Market Tone for Q4

Jim Cramer emphasized that this week’s earnings reports from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft will determine the market’s direction for the remainder of the year.

Together with peers Nvidia and Tesla, these megacaps now make up nearly 35% of the S&P 500’s weighting, meaning any collective weakness could stall the broader rally.

Cramer highlighted expectations for strong cloud performance from Google and Microsoft, ad momentum from Meta, and robust iPhone 17 and AWS updates from Apple and Amazon.

With investors increasingly linking AI adoption to profitability, results across these firms will serve as a key sentiment gauge for U.S. equities heading into year-end.

Gold Slides as Trade Optimism Dims Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices dropped more than 2% to a three-week low, slipping to around $3,900 per ounce, as optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks reduced safe-haven demand and boosted risk assets.

President Trump’s upbeat comments on a potential trade deal and several new economic agreements in Asia spurred equity markets, weighing on bullion’s appeal.

Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where another rate cut is widely anticipated.

Despite gold’s 53% year-to-date rally and record highs earlier in October, analysts from Citi and Capital Economics have trimmed short-term price forecasts, signaling expectations of further normalization if geopolitical risk recedes.

Conclusion

Global markets are entering a pivotal week shaped by shifting trade dynamics, corporate earnings, and energy transitions.

Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and Saudi Arabia’s accelerating diversification away from oil signal structural changes in global growth drivers.

Meanwhile, Google’s nuclear partnership underscores how AI’s energy demands are redefining industrial strategy.

Investors are closely watching mega-cap tech earnings, which could determine short-term market direction, while gold’s retreat highlights easing risk aversion.

With central banks poised to maintain accommodative policies, the focus now turns to how fiscal and corporate decisions align with the next phase of global economic recalibration.

Investment Insights

• Energy Transition Opportunities: Saudi Arabia’s accelerated diversification and Google’s nuclear revival signal long-term investment potential in clean energy infrastructure, AI data ecosystems, and industrial modernization.
• Earnings as Market Catalyst: Short-term equity performance will hinge on the results and guidance from tech giants. Strong cloud and AI revenues could reinforce growth sentiment; weak margins may trigger a correction.
• Commodities Repricing: Gold’s retreat amid easing trade tensions suggests investors are rotating back toward risk assets — a reminder to rebalance between defensive and growth exposures.
• Macro Watchpoints: Progress in U.S.-China negotiations and the Fed’s upcoming rate decision remain critical for positioning in equities, currencies, and commodities.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 29, 2025	Federal Reserve Rate Decision	Markets expect a 25 bp cut amid cooling labor data; outcome will steer credit conditions, bond yields, and equity valuations.
October 30, 2025	Trump–Xi Meeting (APEC, South Korea)	Potential reset in U.S.–China trade tensions with implications for tariffs, rare-earth supply chains, and global growth sentiment.
October 31, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Spending / Employment Cost Index	Monitors household demand and wage pressures—both critical for the Fed’s inflation outlook and for consumer-sensitive sectors.
November 1, 2025	Deadline for U.S. 100% Tariffs on Chinese Goods	Could trigger a major escalation in the trade war; delay or reversal would relieve pressure on global supply chains and manufacturing equities.

Key Points

• U.S.–China Near Trade Truce: Washington and Beijing outlined a framework pausing new U.S. tariffs and delaying China’s rare earth export curbs, signaling renewed cooperation ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting.
• Nikkei Tops 50,000: Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a historic high as optimism over U.S.–China trade progress, Wall Street gains, and Fed rate-cut expectations boosted Asian equities.
• India’s Energy Shift: Reliance Industries’ move to halt Russian oil imports under U.S. sanctions could tighten refining margins but strengthen India’s prospects for a new U.S. trade deal.
• China’s Profit Rebound: Industrial profits surged 21.6% in September — the strongest in nearly two years — driven by high-tech manufacturing gains and Beijing’s efforts to curb price competition.

U.S.–China Near Trade Truce Extension as Trump–Xi Prepare to Meet

U.S. and Chinese negotiators outlined a preliminary framework to pause new tariffs and delay Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting scheduled for Oct. 30 at the APEC Summit in South Korea. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the deal would avert Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs and likely extend the current tariff truce beyond Nov. 10, while China considers a one-year delay in its licensing regime on critical minerals. The framework also includes revived Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and a pending TikTok ownership deal, signaling a tentative de-escalation in trade tensions after months of retaliatory measures.

Nikkei Breaks 50,000 as Asia Rallies on U.S.–China Trade Progress

Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.46% to close at a record 50,512.32, crossing the 50,000 milestone for the first time as optimism over U.S.–China trade negotiations lifted sentiment across Asia. The rally was reinforced by expectations that President Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese imports are “effectively off the table,” according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Gains extended to South Korea’s Kospi, which breached 4,000, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, up 1.05%. Investor confidence also drew strength from Wall Street’s record close and expectations of a Fed rate cut, as Japan prepares for Trump’s upcoming meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Reliance’s Shift from Russian Crude Could Reshape India’s Energy and Trade Balance

Reliance Industries, India’s largest private oil refiner, is reportedly halting purchases of Russian crude following fresh U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which together supply over 600,000 barrels per day to the company. The move could trim Reliance’s refining margins given Russian oil’s $5–6 per barrel discount to Middle Eastern grades, though alternative supplies from West Asia, Brazil, and Guyana remain available. Analysts say the financial hit will be limited, with the Russian crude benefit representing about 2% of Reliance’s projected 2027 EBITDA. The decision, shared by other Indian refiners, strengthens prospects for a U.S.–India trade deal and reduces Washington’s tariff pressure on New Delhi.

China’s Industrial Profits See Strongest Growth Since 2023 Amid Policy Support

China’s industrial profits surged 21.6% year-on-year in September — the fastest pace since November 2023 — as government efforts to curb price wars and stabilize manufacturing margins took effect. The gains extended August’s 20.4% rise and lifted year-to-date profit growth to 3.2%, up from 0.9% in the first eight months. High-tech manufacturing led the rebound with a 26.8% profit increase, offsetting a 29.3% decline in mining. Despite soft consumer prices and ongoing U.S. trade frictions, industrial output grew 6.5% in September, suggesting Beijing’s targeted industrial policies are bolstering profitability even as broader economic momentum remains uneven.

Conclusion

Global markets enter the week buoyed by signs of de-escalation between the U.S. and China, driving optimism across equities and commodities. Japan’s record-breaking Nikkei underscores renewed investor confidence in Asia, while India’s energy realignment and China’s sharp profit rebound suggest shifting trade and industrial dynamics. Yet, behind the optimism lies a cautious recalibration — from policy coordination to supply chain resilience — as investors weigh the implications of upcoming U.S.–China talks and potential rate moves by the Federal Reserve. The balance between diplomatic progress and macroeconomic headwinds will define market sentiment heading into November.

Investment Insights

• Trade Thaw Boosts Risk Appetite: The U.S.–China tariff pause and rare earth deal framework may lift near-term sentiment in global equities, particularly in export-driven Asian markets.
• Japan’s Momentum Play: The Nikkei’s record rally reinforces Japan’s appeal as a cyclical growth and currency-hedge play amid easing inflation and structural reforms.
• Energy Market Repricing: India’s pivot away from Russian crude could tighten regional supply, supporting oil prices and improving U.S.–India trade alignment — favoring select energy exporters.
• China’s Industrial Strength: Surging industrial profits highlight resilience in high-tech manufacturing, suggesting potential opportunities in Chinese automation, materials, and industrial supply chains.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 29, 2025	Federal Reserve Rate Decision	Markets expect a 25 bp cut amid cooling labor data; outcome will steer credit conditions, bond yields, and equity valuations.
October 30, 2025	Trump–Xi Meeting (APEC, South Korea)	Potential reset in U.S.–China trade tensions with implications for tariffs, rare-earth supply chains, and global growth sentiment.
October 31, 2025	U.S. Personal Income & Spending / Employment Cost Index	Monitors household demand and wage pressures—both critical for the Fed’s inflation outlook and for consumer-sensitive sectors.
November 1, 2025	Deadline for U.S. 100% Tariffs on Chinese Goods	Could trigger a major escalation in the trade war; delay or reversal would relieve pressure on global supply chains and manufacturing equities.

Key Points

• Trump-Xi Summit Set for Oct. 30: The upcoming Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit aims to de-escalate trade tensions as both sides face looming tariff deadlines and stalled negotiations.
• China’s Five-Year Plan Prioritizes Consumption and Tech: Beijing reaffirmed a 5% GDP target while emphasizing domestic demand and high-tech self-reliance, signaling continued investment-driven growth despite weak consumer confidence.
• Oil Prices Hold Gains Amid Russian Sanctions: Crude benchmarks stabilized near $66 Brent as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil sparked supply concerns and positioned oil for its strongest weekly advance since June.
• Trump Ends Trade Talks with Canada: The U.S. halted negotiations after a disputed Canadian ad featuring Ronald Reagan’s remarks on tariffs, escalating tensions and adding uncertainty to North American trade relations.

Trump and Xi Set for High-Stakes Meeting as Trade Tensions Simmer

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week at the APEC Summit in South Korea, marking their first in-person engagement since 2019 and a potential inflection point in strained U.S.-China relations.

The meeting comes ahead of the Nov. 10 expiration of the current trade truce and Trump’s Nov. 1 deadline for new 100% tariffs, heightening market sensitivity to any signs of progress.

Analysts expect the talks to focus on rare earths, tech exports, and agricultural trade, with both sides signaling cautious intent to de-escalate while preserving leverage ahead of broader structural negotiations.

China Prioritizes Domestic Consumption and Tech Independence in Five-Year Plan

China’s leadership concluded the Fourth Plenum with a renewed focus on boosting domestic consumption and accelerating technological self-reliance, signaling a shift in policy tone as growth pressures mount.

While reaffirming a 5% GDP target for 2025, Beijing emphasized investment-led consumption in sectors like urban infrastructure, public services, and elder care rather than direct stimulus.

The plan also calls for a “significant leap” in technological strength by 2035, underscoring advanced manufacturing, AI, and quantum research as national priorities.

Analysts noted the continued reliance on state-driven investment over household income growth, reflecting caution amid deflationary risks and global tensions.

Oil Holds Steady After Surge as Sanctions on Russia Stir Supply Fears

Oil prices steadied on Friday following Thursday’s 5% rally, with Brent trading at $66.11 and WTI at $61.95, as traders assessed the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil—companies responsible for over 5% of global crude output.

The measures, aimed at tightening pressure on Moscow, have led Chinese and Indian refiners to suspend or scale back Russian purchases, heightening concerns over near-term supply disruptions.

Despite Kuwait’s assurance that OPEC could raise output if needed, both benchmarks remain on track for a 7% weekly gain, signaling a market shift toward undersupply sentiment.

Trump Halts All Trade Talks with Canada Over “Fake” Reagan Ad Dispute

President Donald Trump abruptly terminated all U.S. trade negotiations with Canada on Thursday, citing a controversial Ontario-funded advertisement that used edited remarks from former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.

The $75 million campaign, led by Ontario Premier Doug Ford, aimed to air the ad across the U.S. to challenge Trump’s tariff policies.

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation denounced the ad as misleading and unauthorized, prompting Trump to accuse Canada of attempting to influence a Supreme Court case involving U.S. tariffs.

This move marks the second suspension of U.S.-Canada trade talks this year, reigniting bilateral trade tensions.

Conclusion

Global markets closed the week balancing cautious optimism with renewed geopolitical strain.

Hopes for progress in U.S.–China relations, fueled by the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting, contrast with rising trade frictions between Washington and Ottawa.

China’s new five-year roadmap underscores a dual strategy of domestic consumption and technological autonomy, reinforcing its long-term growth ambitions.

Meanwhile, energy markets remain volatile as sanctions on Russian oil majors tighten supply expectations.

Overall, investor sentiment reflects a measured appetite for risk—driven by policy uncertainty, shifting trade dynamics, and the persistent interplay between political maneuvering and macroeconomic stability.

Investment Insights

• Trade Diplomacy Watch: The Trump–Xi meeting could reset market sentiment; investors should monitor tariff outcomes and potential easing in U.S.–China trade restrictions for equity and commodity plays.
• China Allocation Strategy: Beijing’s pivot toward domestic consumption and tech self-reliance favors exposure to sectors like advanced manufacturing, automation, and clean energy over traditional property-linked assets.
• Energy Market Volatility: Sanctions-driven supply risks may support higher oil prices in the near term; energy equities and commodity hedges could benefit from tightening global crude flows.
• North American Trade Risks: The U.S.–Canada fallout reinforces geopolitical headline risk—caution is warranted on cross-border sectors sensitive to tariff policy shifts.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 24, 2025	U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY)	Critical inflation read that may shift expectations on future Fed rate cuts.
October 29, 2025	FOMC Interest Rate Decision	Key policy decision that sets the tone for rates and global bond flows.
October 31, 2025	Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Early gauge of euro-zone industrial momentum and ECB policy direction.
November 3, 2025	Japan GDP (Q3, QoQ)	Snapshot of Japan’s growth prospects amid currency and regional spill-over risks.

Key Points

• U.S. Sanctions on Russia’s Oil Giants: Washington’s new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil threaten to disrupt up to half of Russia’s crude exports, forcing China and India to seek alternative suppliers and pushing Brent prices near $65 a barrel.
• Tesla Returns to Growth: Tesla posted 12% revenue growth to $28.1 billion after two weak quarters, driven by record vehicle deliveries and energy storage gains, though profits fell 37% amid surging R&D and AI-related costs.
• Amazon Bets on Robotics Efficiency: Morgan Stanley projects Amazon could save up to $4 billion annually by 2027 as it automates 75% of operations, replacing 600,000 warehouse jobs and boosting long-term profitability.
• Gold’s Volatile Ascent Continues: Gold’s 54% year-to-date surge has entered a speculative phase, with prices near $4,300 per ounce; analysts expect further gains despite short-term volatility tied to equity market shifts and profit-taking.

China and India Brace for Oil Supply Shock as U.S. Tightens Sanctions on Russia

The U.S. Treasury’s new sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil mark one of Washington’s most aggressive energy moves since the Ukraine war began, threatening to disrupt the flow of over 2 million barrels per day to China and 1.6 million to India.

The sanctions, which take effect Nov. 21, give buyers a short window to unwind contracts, sending Brent crude up 3.7% to $64.91 a barrel.

Analysts expect both Asian nations to pivot toward OPEC and U.S. suppliers, tightening global supply and pushing prices higher as refiners scramble to secure non-sanctioned crude.

Tesla Rebounds on Revenue Growth, But Earnings Miss Amid Rising Costs

Tesla reported third-quarter revenue of $28.1 billion, up 12% year over year and ahead of estimates, marking a return to growth after two straight quarterly declines.

However, net income dropped 37% to $1.37 billion as operating expenses surged 50%, driven by AI and R&D investments.

Automotive revenue rose 6%, but lower EV prices, fading U.S. tax credits, and weak European sales pressured margins.

Tesla’s energy storage business surged 44%, now accounting for a quarter of total revenue. Shares fell 5% in after-hours trading as investors reacted to muted guidance and continued uncertainty around future production timelines.

Amazon’s Automation Drive Could Unlock $4 Billion in Annual Savings by 2027

Morgan Stanley estimates Amazon’s aggressive shift toward warehouse automation could yield $2–$4 billion in yearly savings by 2027 as the company replaces up to 600,000 human roles with robots and automates 75% of operations.

The bank reiterated its overweight rating and $300 price target, noting that robotic fulfillment centers could cut per-order costs by 20%–40%.

CEO Andy Jassy previously said automation has already lowered fulfillment expenses by 25% at Amazon’s Shreveport facility.

Analysts see robotics-driven efficiencies—alongside AI and AWS growth—as key to restoring margin momentum after the stock’s underperformance this year.

Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally Enters a Volatile New Phase

Gold’s historic 54% year-to-date surge—its strongest since 1979—has entered a new, more volatile stage as speculative FOMO-driven buying replaces steady central bank accumulation.

The metal breached $4,000 per ounce in October before retreating 5%, its sharpest daily drop in five years. Analysts view the correction as healthy, noting strong fundamentals amid Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tension.

However, rising equity markets and potential margin-call liquidations pose near-term risks.

Despite these headwinds, most forecasts still see gold climbing toward $4,500 in 2026 as investors hedge against inflation, policy uncertainty, and elevated global asset valuations.

Conclusion

Markets are navigating a complex intersection of geopolitics, innovation, and shifting capital flows.

The U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy giants have tightened global oil dynamics, while Asia’s energy dependency underscores renewed supply risk.

Corporate earnings from Tesla and Amazon reveal the dual edge of technological transformation—pressure on short-term margins but powerful long-term efficiency gains.

Meanwhile, gold’s volatility reflects both investor caution and speculative fervor amid policy uncertainty.

As global markets adjust to new realities in energy, automation, and monetary policy, disciplined portfolio diversification remains critical to balancing opportunity and resilience in the quarters ahead.

Investment Insights

• Energy Repricing Ahead: Sanctions on Russia’s oil majors may tighten global supply, supporting near-term upside in crude prices and reinforcing opportunities in U.S. and Middle Eastern energy producers.
• Tech Margins Under Pressure: Tesla’s results highlight a broader trend — innovation-heavy firms face short-term earnings compression before realizing productivity-driven growth; patient capital could be rewarded.
• Automation as a Profit Catalyst: Amazon’s aggressive robotics rollout signals a structural margin expansion theme across logistics and industrial automation sectors.
• Gold as a Tactical Hedge: Heightened volatility and policy uncertainty sustain the case for strategic gold exposure despite short-term corrections in price momentum.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 24, 2025	U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY)	Critical inflation read that may shift expectations on future Fed rate cuts.
October 29, 2025	FOMC Interest Rate Decision	Key policy decision that sets the tone for rates and global bond flows.
October 31, 2025	Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Early gauge of euro-zone industrial momentum and ECB policy direction.
November 3, 2025	Japan GDP (Q3, QoQ)	Snapshot of Japan’s growth prospects amid currency and regional spill-over risks.

Key Points

• U.S.–India Trade Breakthrough Nears: Washington may slash tariffs on Indian exports to 15–16% from 50%, while New Delhi is expected to gradually reduce Russian oil imports, signaling a potential reset in global trade alignment.
• Asia-Pacific Stocks Diverge: Japan’s new leadership coincides with a trade rebound, while South Korea’s Kospi notches a record high on sustained investor optimism and strong corporate performance.
• European Equities Extend Gains: Defense shares led the advance as geopolitical tensions persist, though Novo Nordisk slipped amid governance turbulence and the U.K. posted record-high borrowing figures.
• Markets Await U.S. Inflation Data: Investors brace for a key CPI report amid doubts over data reliability due to the government shutdown, with expectations of steady 3.1% inflation and further Fed rate cuts ahead.

India–U.S. Trade Breakthrough Nears as Tariff Cuts and Russian Oil Reductions Take Shape

India and the United States are reportedly nearing a landmark trade deal that could see Washington slash tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to around 15–16%, while New Delhi gradually reduces purchases of Russian oil.

The agreement, expected to be finalized around the ASEAN summit later this month, marks a potential thaw in relations after months of tariff escalations and energy tensions.

The deal may also expand India’s import quota for U.S. non-GMO corn, signaling progress toward the $500 billion bilateral trade target by 2030. Markets view the development as a step toward stabilizing global trade and energy flows.

Asia-Pacific Stocks Mixed as Japan Shifts Leadership and South Korea Extends Record Rally

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed Japan’s trade rebound and the installation of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s new cabinet.

Japan’s exports rose 4.2% in September, ending a four-month slump, though slightly missing forecasts.

The Nikkei 225 finished flat at 49,307.79, while the Topix advanced 0.52% to a record 3,266.43.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.56% to a new high of 3,883.68, driven by strong gains in LG Chem after activist pressure for reforms.

Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.71% as rare earth stocks cooled following Tuesday’s surge tied to the U.S.–Australia minerals deal.

European Equities Edge Higher as Defense Stocks Rally and Novo Nordisk Faces Governance Shake-Up

European markets closed modestly higher on Tuesday, extending early-week gains amid renewed strength in defense shares and steady investor sentiment.

The Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, supported by a 1.1% advance in the Aerospace and Defense index as Switzerland’s Montana Aerospace surged over 10%, offsetting declines in Germany’s Renk.

Novo Nordisk slipped 1.3% after announcing board changes ahead of a November extraordinary meeting.

In the U.K., public borrowing hit a record £20.2 billion for September, aligning with forecasts but underscoring fiscal strain ahead of the Autumn Budget.

The FTSE 100 and DAX gained 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

Markets Eye U.S. Inflation Data Amid Rising Doubts Over Data Quality

All eyes are on Friday’s U.S. consumer price index report, but questions about data reliability are mounting as the Bureau of Labor Statistics struggles with staffing cuts and operational challenges from the ongoing government shutdown.

Economists expect annual inflation at 3.1%, with monthly gains of 0.4% for headline CPI and 0.3% for core — steady from August.

Despite skepticism about data integrity, investors anticipate the report will give the Federal Reserve cover to proceed with a quarter-point rate cut next week, followed by another in December, even as uncertainty clouds the policy outlook for 2026.

Conclusion

Global markets continue to balance optimism with caution as key economic and political developments unfold across regions.

The U.S. and India edge closer to a landmark trade deal that could reshape supply chains, while Asia’s markets show resilience led by record gains in South Korea.

In Europe, steady momentum in defense and industrial sectors contrasts with concerns over fiscal discipline in the U.K. Meanwhile, investors await the U.S. inflation report, which will likely shape near-term monetary policy direction.

With uncertainties in data reliability and geopolitical undercurrents persisting, portfolio positioning remains crucial in navigating late-year market volatility.

Investment Insights

• Trade Realignment: The pending U.S.–India trade deal could unlock opportunities in emerging market equities and logistics sectors as global supply chains diversify away from Russia and China.
• Asia Momentum: South Korea’s record-breaking rally and Japan’s leadership transition highlight renewed investor confidence in Asia’s growth potential, particularly in technology and manufacturing.
• Defensive Positioning: Europe’s continued defense-sector strength underscores the long-term investment appeal of military and security-linked industries amid persistent geopolitical risk.
• Macro Sensitivity: With the Fed poised for further rate cuts and inflation data under scrutiny, fixed income and gold remain attractive hedges against policy uncertainty and data volatility.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 24, 2025	U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY)	Critical inflation read that may shift expectations on future Fed rate cuts.
October 29, 2025	FOMC Interest Rate Decision	Key policy decision that sets the tone for rates and global bond flows.
October 31, 2025	Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Early gauge of euro-zone industrial momentum and ECB policy direction.
November 3, 2025	Japan GDP (Q3, QoQ)	Snapshot of Japan’s growth prospects amid currency and regional spill-over risks.

Key Points

• U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Pact: Shares of Australian rare earth and lithium producers surged after Washington and Canberra signed an $8.5 billion minerals partnership aimed at strengthening non-Chinese supply chains for critical materials.
• European Equities Gain: European markets opened higher, led by continued gains in defense stocks following Thyssenkrupp’s TKMS debut and renewed geopolitical tensions, while investors monitored strong Q3 earnings momentum.
• Gold Eases After Record High: Bullion slipped 0.3% to $4,340 per ounce as investors booked profits following an all-time high, though expectations of further Fed rate cuts kept sentiment broadly supportive.
• Japan Pushes Back on U.S. Demands Over Russian Energy: Tokyo reaffirmed its energy independence, maintaining Russian LNG imports vital to national power security despite U.S. pressure to suspend purchases amid tightening sanctions.

Australia’s Critical Minerals Surge on $8.5 Billion U.S. Deal

Australian rare earth and critical metal producers rallied sharply after Washington and Canberra unveiled an $8.5 billion partnership to strengthen non-Chinese supply chains for strategic materials.

The deal, signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, targets joint investment in rare earths, lithium, and gallium refining projects, including Alcoa’s priority gallium recovery initiative in Western Australia. Shares of Lynas gained 4.7%, Iluka 9%, and Pilbara Minerals 5%, while smaller miners such as VHM and Latrobe Magnesium soared up to 47%.

The agreement underscores U.S. efforts to secure critical minerals for defense, energy, and semiconductor industries amid escalating trade tensions with China.

European Markets Edge Higher as Defense Stocks Extend Gains

European equities opened modestly higher on Tuesday, led by continued strength in defense shares following a surge earlier in the week.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose slightly in early trade, supported by gains in the Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defense index, up 0.2%, with Renk adding 0.8% and Italy’s Leonardo advancing 1.4%.

The upbeat momentum followed the successful market debut of Thyssenkrupp’s warship division TKMS and renewed geopolitical tensions between Washington and Kyiv.

Investors also awaited key third-quarter earnings from L’Oréal and Assa Abloy, while U.K. data showed public borrowing climbed to a record £20.2 billion in September, underscoring fiscal challenges ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Gold Retreats Slightly as Investors Lock in Profits After Record High

Gold prices eased on Tuesday as investors took profits following bullion’s surge to a new all-time high of $4,381 per ounce in the previous session, driven by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent safe-haven demand.

Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $4,340, while U.S. futures dipped 0.1% to $4,356. Analysts said the pullback reflected short-term profit-taking rather than a reversal of trend, with dips likely to attract new buyers amid dovish Fed expectations.

Markets are pricing in two more quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, while investors await delayed U.S. CPI data for confirmation of inflation’s trajectory.

Japan Resists U.S. Pressure to End Russian Energy Imports

Japan signaled it will prioritize national energy security over U.S. pressure to halt Russian oil and gas purchases, Trade Minister Yoji Muto said Tuesday after talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato.

While Tokyo has gradually reduced its reliance on Russian energy since the Ukraine invasion and aligned with G7 sanctions by lowering the oil price cap to $47.60, it maintains a waiver due to the strategic importance of LNG from Sakhalin-2, which supplies 3% of Japan’s electricity.

Analysts view Japan’s stance as balancing geopolitical alignment with Washington against the practical realities of securing stable energy supply.

Conclusion

Global markets reflected a cautious yet resilient tone as geopolitical realignments and sector-specific catalysts shaped sentiment.

The U.S.–Australia minerals pact reinforced efforts to diversify critical supply chains, while Europe’s defense sector continued to attract investor inflows amid rising geopolitical tensions.

In commodities, gold’s minor pullback highlighted ongoing sensitivity to Fed policy expectations, and Japan’s firm stance on Russian energy underscored the tension between energy security and allied diplomacy.

As the week unfolds, investors will closely monitor central bank signals and trade developments, with commodities and defense-linked equities likely to remain in focus amid persistent global uncertainty.

Investment Insights

• Critical Minerals Repositioning: The U.S.–Australia deal signals accelerating Western efforts to localize supply chains, potentially benefiting non-Chinese miners and advanced material refiners across Australia and North America.
• Defense Sector Strength: Continued investor rotation toward defense and aerospace stocks reflects structural rearmament trends in Europe and Asia—momentum likely to persist amid elevated geopolitical risk.
• Gold’s Role Reinforced: Despite short-term profit-taking, sustained Fed easing expectations and geopolitical tensions reaffirm gold’s appeal as a core portfolio hedge.
• Energy Security Dynamics: Japan’s pushback against U.S. demands highlights diverging national energy priorities, suggesting selective opportunities in LNG infrastructure and diversified energy assets.

Economic Calendar

Date	Event	Why It Matters
October 24, 2025	U.S. Consumer Price Index (YoY)	Critical inflation read that may shift expectations on future Fed rate cuts.
October 29, 2025	FOMC Interest Rate Decision	Key policy decision that sets the tone for rates and global bond flows.
October 31, 2025	Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	Early gauge of euro-zone industrial momentum and ECB policy direction.
November 3, 2025	Japan GDP (Q3, QoQ)	Snapshot of Japan’s growth prospects amid currency and regional spill-over risks.