Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 7, 2025
Date Issued – 7th January 2025
Preview
Nvidia unveiled its GB10 superchip and AI platforms at CES 2025, showcasing innovations in robotics and self-driving tech as it expands beyond its core data center business. Meanwhile, Tencent shares dropped 7% after being blacklisted by the US for alleged military ties, escalating US-China tensions. Bitcoin surged past $102,000 on a weaker dollar and strong ETF inflows but remains sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. In currency markets, China’s record yield gap with the US intensified pressure on the yuan as the PBOC struggles to stabilize it amid capital outflows. Finally, Asian shares rose on hopes for softer Trump tariffs, though uncertainty around trade policy persists, with key US economic data due this week.
Nvidia Unveils GB10 Superchip and AI Systems at CES 2025
Nvidia (NVDA) showcased its latest AI advancements at CES 2025, including the GB10 superchip, AI tools for robotics, and self-driving technologies. The GB10, a compact version of Nvidia’s powerful Blackwell-based GB200, integrates a Grace CPU with a Blackwell GPU, offering researchers a desktop AI supercomputer called Project DIGITS starting at $3,000. Nvidia also launched Cosmos, a platform for developing AI-powered humanoid robots and self-driving cars using virtual simulations, alongside Isaac GROOT Blueprint, which simplifies robot training using motion synthesis. On the automotive front, Toyota and other partners will leverage Nvidia’s DRIVE hardware and software for autonomous vehicles. Nvidia’s smaller AI segments, including Robotics and Automotive, are growing rapidly, with a 72% year-over-year revenue increase despite still trailing its dominant Data Center business.
Investment Insight
Nvidia’s diversified AI portfolio positions it as a leader in emerging markets like robotics and autonomous vehicles. While these segments contribute modestly to its revenue today, their growth potential underscores the company’s long-term strategy beyond its core data center dominance.
Market price: Nvidia Corp (NVDA): USD 149.43
Tencent Shares Drop After US Adds Firm to Military Blacklist
Tencent and battery giant CATL were blacklisted by the US Defense Department for alleged ties to the Chinese military, sparking a 7% drop in Tencent’s shares and a 5% decline for CATL in Hong Kong. The move, weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration, adds to escalating US-China tensions and could disrupt CATL’s supply chain to major automakers, including Tesla and Ford. Tencent denied any military affiliations, calling the decision a “mistake,” while analysts suggest the blacklist may not impact operations directly. Other firms, including SenseTime and Cnooc, were also added to the list, though some Chinese companies have successfully contested such designations in the past.
Investment Insight
The blacklisting underscores geopolitical risks for Chinese tech and industrial giants like Tencent and CATL. Investors should monitor regulatory developments closely, as sustained tensions could weigh on global supply chains and investor sentiment in Chinese equities.
Market price: Tencent Holdings Ltd (HKG: 0700): HKD 381.60

Bitcoin Surges Past $102,000 Amid Dollar Weakness on Tariff News
Bitcoin broke above $102,000 on Monday, buoyed by a weakening dollar after reports suggested Trump’s tariffs might be less extensive than feared. Although the report was later refuted, Bitcoin held steady above $100,000, supported by strong ETF inflows, with $500 million pouring into Bitcoin ETFs in just three days, according to CoinShares. MicroStrategy also continued its buying spree, adding $100 million in Bitcoin to its holdings, now worth nearly $45 billion. The dollar’s movements, coupled with expectations for changing monetary policy in 2025, remain key factors driving Bitcoin’s momentum.
Investment Insight
Bitcoin’s rally underscores its increasing correlation with macroeconomic trends, particularly the dollar’s performance. Investors should watch for further institutional demand via ETFs and corporate buying, as these factors solidify Bitcoin’s role as a hedge in volatile markets.
China’s Record Yield Gap with US Puts Yuan Under Pressure
China’s yield discount to US Treasuries hit a record 300 basis points, intensifying downward pressure on the yuan as capital outflows mount. The gap, driven by falling Chinese bond yields amid deflationary pressures and weak credit growth, contrasts with relatively firm US economic activity keeping Treasury yields elevated. The yuan has slid toward record lows in offshore trading, despite the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) intervening to stabilize the currency. With a fragile economy, prolonged property downturn, and tariff threats from President-elect Trump, policymakers face a tough choice between further yuan depreciation and economic support measures.
Investment Insight
The widening yield gap highlights China’s economic vulnerabilities and the yuan’s sensitivity to capital flows. Investors should brace for continued yuan weakness and monitor PBOC interventions, as policy decisions may signal broader economic priorities amid global uncertainties.
Asia Shares Rise on Hopes of Softer Trump Tariffs
Asian markets gained on Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s optimism after reports suggested President-elect Donald Trump might adopt a selective tariff approach targeting specific sectors rather than broad measures. Japan’s Nikkei surged 2%, while China’s CSI300 edged up 0.12%. However, Trump later denied the report, tempering the dollar’s decline. Investors remain cautious as Trump’s trade policy stance evolves. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data releases, including December’s nonfarm payrolls and Fed minutes, are expected to shape global markets this week. Oil prices dipped slightly, while gold edged higher to $2,640.49 an ounce.
Investment Insight
Market optimism over potential trade policy shifts highlights the region’s sensitivity to U.S.-China relations. Investors should monitor tariff developments and upcoming U.S. economic data, as these factors will influence both currency and equity market trajectories in the near term.
Conclusion
The week’s developments highlight the interplay of innovation, geopolitics, and macroeconomic forces shaping global markets. Nvidia’s AI advancements signal growth opportunities in emerging sectors, while Tencent’s blacklisting underscores rising US-China tensions and regulatory risks. Bitcoin’s rally above $102,000 reflects growing institutional interest, but its sensitivity to monetary policy remains high. Meanwhile, China’s widening yield gap with the US pressures the yuan, exposing vulnerabilities in its economy. Optimism in Asian markets over potential tariff shifts is tempered by uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies. Investors should stay vigilant as global economic data and policy decisions continue to drive market sentiment.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 7, 2025: Eurozone CPI, Unemployment
- January 8, 2025: Eurozone PPI, Consumer confidence
- January 9, 2025: China CPI, PPI
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 6, 2025
Date Issued – 6th January 2025
Preview
Industrial metals declined as China’s efforts to support the yuan failed to offset weak demand, with aluminum and iron ore hitting recent lows. Samsung unveiled AI-powered upgrades for its premium TVs at CES, aiming to strengthen its market dominance through partnerships with Microsoft and Google. Goldman Sachs delayed its $3,000 gold forecast to mid-2026, citing fewer expected US rate cuts and weaker speculative demand. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reportedly set to resign amid mounting political pressure, triggering a leadership race. Meanwhile, shares of Asian alcohol producers slid after the US Surgeon General linked alcohol consumption to cancer risks, sparking fears of tougher regulations.
Metals Slide Despite China’s Yuan Support Measures
Aluminum hovered near a three-month low, and iron ore futures continued their decline, as China set a stronger yuan reference rate to counter the US dollar’s rally. The yuan, which recently breached the 7.3-per-dollar mark, was set stronger than 7.2, but its weakness has made industrial metals pricier for Chinese buyers, dampening demand. Metals markets remain under pressure, with Donald Trump’s US presidential win boosting the dollar and uncertainty persisting over China’s growth recovery. Aluminum fell 0.2% to $2,488 a ton, while iron ore dropped 1.2% to $97.05 a ton, its lowest since November.
Investment Insight
A strong dollar and weak Chinese demand signal further downside risk for industrial metals. Investors should monitor currency trends and trade policy developments closely.

Samsung Brings Generative AI to Top-Selling TVs
Samsung Electronics is integrating generative AI into its premium TV lineup with its new Vision AI suite, unveiled at CES 2025. The AI-powered TVs can identify on-screen actors or products, translate content in real time, and generate personalized backgrounds. High-end models feature an AI processor to enhance visuals and audio. Samsung, the world’s leading TV seller for nearly 20 years, is also partnering with Microsoft and Google to expand Vision AI’s capabilities, signaling its shift toward making TVs more interactive and adaptive.
Investment Insight
Samsung’s AI-driven innovation reinforces its market leadership while leveraging partnerships with tech giants. This move could drive premium sales and strengthen its position in the home entertainment market.
Market price: Samsung Electronics Co Ltd. (KRX: 005930): KRW 56,000
Goldman Delays $3,000 Gold Forecast Amid Fewer Rate Cuts
Goldman Sachs has postponed its $3,000 gold price forecast to mid-2026, citing expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Analysts now project gold will reach $2,910 per ounce by year-end, as slower monetary easing and weaker ETF flows weigh on demand. While central bank purchases remain a strong driver, speculative demand has softened, keeping gold prices range-bound. Goldman expects 75 basis points of rate cuts this year, down from a prior forecast of 100.
Investment Insight
Slower rate cuts and reduced speculative demand may limit gold’s upside in the near term. However, sustained central bank buying offers long-term support, making gold a defensive asset for cautious investors.
Canada’s Trudeau Expected to Resign Amid Party Pressure
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is likely to resign as leader of the Liberal Party this week, according to The Globe and Mail. Trudeau has faced mounting calls from Liberal lawmakers to step down, intensifying after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in December over policy disagreements. If confirmed, his departure would trigger a leadership race at a critical time, with opposition parties poised to force a confidence vote by March and Conservatives holding a commanding lead in polls. Potential leadership contenders include Freeland, Mark Carney, and other senior cabinet members.
Investment Insight
Political uncertainty in Canada could weigh on markets, but Trudeau’s exit may bring clarity to fiscal and trade policies. Watch the Canadian dollar and sectors sensitive to US-Canada trade relations for volatility.
Asian Alcohol Stocks Drop After US Cancer Warning
Shares of major Asian liquor and beer makers fell sharply after the US Surgeon General linked alcohol consumption to increased cancer risk and suggested warning labels. Japan’s Sapporo Holdings dropped 5.1%, China’s Wuliangye Yibin fell 3.7%, Budweiser Brewing APAC slid 2.6%, and Australia’s Treasury Wine Estates dipped 2.7%. Analysts warn the sector could face long-term pressure if stricter regulations on alcohol labeling follow, though any changes are likely years away.
Investment Insight
Heightened regulatory risk could weigh on the alcohol sector, particularly for companies heavily reliant on US sales. Investors should monitor developments in labeling and marketing rules, as well as broader consumer sentiment shifts.
Conclusion
This week’s headlines highlight shifts across markets and industries. Weak Chinese demand and a strong US dollar continue to pressure industrial metals, while Samsung’s AI-powered TVs signal innovation in consumer tech. Gold faces a tempered outlook as rate cut expectations ease, and Canada braces for political uncertainty with Trudeau’s likely resignation. Meanwhile, Asian alcohol stocks tumble on regulatory fears after a US cancer warning. Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring currency trends, policy developments, and sector-specific risks to navigate the evolving landscape. Stay informed as these stories unfold and shape the year ahead.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 7, 2025: Eurozone CPI, Unemployment
- January 8, 2025: Eurozone PPI, Consumer confidence
- January 9, 2025: China CPI, PPI
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Jan 3, 2025
Date Issued – 3rd January 2025
Preview
Tesla shares slide over 6% after a Q4 delivery miss and first annual sales decline
Tesla (TSLA) shares fell over 6% after reporting Q4 2024 deliveries of 495,930 vehicles, missing analysts’ estimates of 510,400. For the year, Tesla delivered 1.78 million vehicles, slightly below 2023’s 1.8 million — the automaker’s first-ever year-over-year sales decline. Analysts attribute the miss to increasing competition, global economic pressures, and Tesla’s focus on new model preparations. Meanwhile, Chinese rival BYD reported 4.3 million global deliveries, with 1.76 million pure EVs, closing in on Tesla.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives remains optimistic, projecting 20%-30% delivery growth in 2025, fueled by Tesla’s anticipated lower-cost EV, FSD software uptake, and robotaxi innovations.
Investment Insight
Tesla’s delivery miss signals short-term challenges, but long-term growth potential remains. Investors may view current dips as opportunities, banking on new product launches and accelerated delivery targets in 2025.
Market price: Tesla Inc (TSLA): USD 379.28
Yuan’s Rally Risks Undermining China’s Exporters
China’s efforts to stabilize the yuan at 7.3 per dollar have strengthened its exchange rate against key trading partners, including the euro and South Korea’s won, reaching its highest level since October 2022. While this bolsters market stability and regional currencies, it risks weakening Chinese exporters’ competitiveness and undermining recovery efforts amid global economic uncertainty and tariff threats from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Analysts warn that China’s strict currency defense could reduce the effectiveness of monetary easing and lead to future volatility.
Investment Insight
China’s rigid currency strategy may create short-term stability but risks long-term economic drag. Investors should monitor trade policy developments and volatility spikes as potential inflection points for Chinese assets.
South Korea, Hong Kong Lead Asian Stocks Higher Amid Global Weakness
Asian equities rallied on Friday, with South Korea’s benchmark up 2.3% and Hong Kong and Australia also posting gains, bucking the global downtrend that saw U.S. stocks fall for a fifth straight session. Chinese stocks remained subdued after their worst yearly start since 2016, while China’s 10-year bond yield dropped below 1.6% for the first time amid economic concerns. U.S. equity futures rose, signaling a potential rebound, as investors reassess strategies after a volatile end to 2024.
Investment Insight
Asia’s divergence from U.S. market weakness highlights regional opportunities, particularly in South Korea and Hong Kong. Investors should monitor interest rate trends and China’s bond market for broader economic signals.
China Plans Export Curbs on Lithium Tech to Protect Supply Chain Dominance
China is proposing stricter export controls on advanced technologies used in lithium refining and battery material production, aiming to safeguard its dominance in the global battery supply chain amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The curbs target emerging processes like direct lithium extraction and specific compounds crucial for high-performance batteries. While existing projects may remain unaffected, future investments and joint ventures could face tighter scrutiny. This move follows China’s broader strategy of restricting exports of key minerals and technologies tied to high-tech and military applications.
Investment Insight
China’s tightening grip on lithium technology could disrupt global battery supply chains, heightening risks for non-Chinese EV and battery manufacturers. Investors should watch for potential supply bottlenecks and increased costs in the EV market.

Biden Blocks Nippon Steel’s Bid for U.S. Steel
President Joe Biden has decided to block Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel, according to the Washington Post. The decision, attributed to concerns over national interests, underscores the administration’s focus on safeguarding critical industries. The $14.1 billion deal faced months of scrutiny and opposition, raising questions about the future of U.S. Steel and its role in the domestic industrial sector.
Investment Insight
The blocked deal highlights rising protectionism in critical industries. Investors should consider potential volatility in U.S. Steel’s stock (X) and broader implications for foreign investments in U.S. strategic sectors.
Conclusion
This week highlighted intensifying global competition across industries. Tesla’s delivery miss signals rising pressure in the EV market, while China’s proposed lithium export curbs underscore its supply chain dominance amid trade tensions. Asian equities offered a bright spot, led by South Korea and Hong Kong, as global markets grapple with inflation and tight monetary policy. Meanwhile, Biden’s block on Nippon Steel’s U.S. Steel bid reveals growing protectionism in critical sectors. As 2025 unfolds, investors should stay attuned to geopolitical shifts, trade policies, and sector-specific developments shaping opportunities and risks in an evolving global economy.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- January 3, 2025: US ISM manufacturing
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Dec 31, 2024
Date Issued – 31st December 2024
Preview
Hong Kong’s IPO market ends 2024 on a high note
Hong Kong’s IPO market closed the year strong, with six firms, including Bloks Group and Beijing Saimo Technology, filing to raise HK$3.3 billion amid eased listing rules and Chinese regulatory support. IPO proceeds nearly doubled to $10 billion, though still below pre-pandemic levels, as firms rushed to list ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, fearing policy shifts. Meanwhile, cocoa led commodities with prices tripling on supply deficits, while steel-making coal and oil struggled due to China’s slowdown. India’s central bank forecasts a 2025 growth rebound, with potential rate cuts boosting consumer-driven sectors, but rising bad loans pose risks. Asian equities ended the year with a quarterly loss, pressured by dollar strength and China’s recovery concerns, though gold and oil showed resilience. Brent crude neared $75 as China’s factory activity expanded, but oversupply fears could weigh on prices in 2025. Investors face a mixed outlook with opportunities in Chinese IPOs, safe-haven assets, and commodities, tempered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Hong Kong’s IPO Market Sees Year-End Surge
Hong Kong’s IPO market ended 2024 with a flurry of filings, as six firms, including Chinese toy maker Bloks Group Ltd. and autonomous vehicle tester Beijing Saimo Technology Co., announced plans to raise HK$3.3 billion ($429 million) by late January. The surge comes as the city eases IPO rules and China’s securities regulator encourages mainland firms to list in Hong Kong to solidify its role as a global financial hub.
Hong Kong’s IPO proceeds nearly doubled in 2024 to $10 billion, still below pre-pandemic averages. The Hang Seng Index gained 18% this year, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index posted a 27% increase, its best performance since 2009. Firms are rushing to list before Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, fearing potential policy volatility under his administration.
Investment Insight
Hong Kong’s improving IPO market, boosted by strong equity performance and relaxed listing rules, offers opportunities for investors seeking exposure to Chinese growth sectors. However, looming geopolitical risks could heighten market volatility.
Cocoa Tops Global Commodities Rally for Second Year Amid Supply Deficit
Cocoa and coffee emerged as the best-performing commodities in 2024, driven by persistent supply deficits caused by adverse weather in key regions like West Africa and Brazil. Cocoa prices soared nearly threefold to a record $12,931 per metric ton, while coffee hit its highest levels in over 40 years. Conversely, steel-making coal and crude oil faced significant pressure, with China’s economic slowdown and property crisis dampening demand.
Looking ahead to 2025, analysts expect heightened global trade tensions, a strong dollar, and U.S. policy shifts under Donald Trump to shape the commodities market. While gold and silver remain strong safe-haven bets, oil and iron ore could struggle as supply outpaces demand, despite OPEC+ production cuts and Chinese stimulus measures.
Investment Insight
Cocoa’s meteoric rise underscores the price risks tied to geographically concentrated production. Meanwhile, gold’s safe-haven appeal and supply constraints in metals like copper position them as potential winners in 2025, while oil and bulk metals could face continued headwinds.

India’s Central Bank Governor Signals Growth Rebound in 2025
India’s new central bank governor, Sanjay Malhotra, anticipates an economic rebound in 2025, driven by strong consumer and business confidence, improved investment scenarios, and robust corporate balance sheets. In his first comments since taking office, Malhotra highlighted the recovery potential in the latter half of the current fiscal year, supported by public consumption, service exports, and easing financial conditions.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects GDP growth at 6.5% for this fiscal year, down from 8% in the previous year, but expects stronger momentum in 2025. Analysts predict Malhotra could cut interest rates as early as February to support growth. While the banking sector remains stable with strong capital buffers, the RBI warns of rising bad loan ratios and economic risks tied to geopolitical tensions and climate events.
Investment Insight
India’s economic rebound in 2025, alongside potential interest rate cuts, presents opportunities in consumer-driven sectors and financial markets. However, rising bad loan ratios and global risks warrant cautious optimism for long-term investments.
Asian Stocks Face Quarterly Loss as 2024 Ends
Asian equities are set to post their first quarterly loss of 2024, despite a strong performance earlier in the year. Weakness in Australia and mainland China dragged regional markets, while Hong Kong shares remained flat. The downturn reflects cautious sentiment as uncertainties loom for 2025, including President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies, the Federal Reserve’s outlook, and China’s economic recovery.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is on track for its best year since 2015, supported by Trump’s reelection and a more hawkish Fed stance. Meanwhile, Asian currencies suffered, with the yen and Korean won leading regional losses. On the commodities front, gold is set for one of its best annual performances, while oil gained on signs of Chinese economic recovery.
Investment Insight
The strong dollar and ongoing global uncertainties could pressure Asian equities and currencies in early 2025. However, commodities like gold and oil may offer resilience, supported by safe-haven demand and signs of recovery in China.
Oil Gains as China’s Factory Activity Expands
Oil prices rose as the year ended, with Brent nearing $75 a barrel and WTI trading close to $72, buoyed by China’s factory activity expanding for a third consecutive month. China’s economic recovery, supported by stimulus measures, offset concerns about a potential trade war under President-elect Donald Trump and looming oversupply in 2025.
While crude remains in a narrow trading range, bullish bets on WTI have reached a four-month high, signaling investor positioning for potential volatility ahead. Analysts remain divided, with some predicting prolonged price weakness due to oversupply, while others highlight risks from geopolitical tensions or extreme weather that could disrupt production.
Investment Insight
Oil markets face conflicting drivers in 2025: oversupply pressures versus potential disruptions from geopolitical risks. Investors may find opportunities in short-term price spikes while maintaining caution on prolonged bearish trends.
Conclusion
As 2024 ends, markets reflect a mix of optimism and caution. Hong Kong’s IPO surge highlights renewed investor interest, while China’s recovery bolsters commodities like oil and gold. However, uncertainties loom with Donald Trump’s presidency, geopolitical tensions, and China’s economic slowdown shaping the 2025 outlook. India offers growth potential under a supportive central bank, yet rising bad loans warrant vigilance. Commodities markets face opposing forces of supply pressures and geopolitical risks, while equity markets brace for dollar strength and global volatility. Investors should balance opportunities in Chinese growth sectors and safe-haven assets with cautious strategies for the year ahead.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- December 31, 2024: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
- January 1, 2025: US manufacturing PMI, Jobless claims
- January 2, 2025: US ISM manufacturing
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Dec 30, 2024
Date Issued – 30th December 2024
Preview
Asian stocks retreated as US equities declined
With year-end caution and thin trading volumes weighing on markets, Asian stocks pulled back. Oil prices held steady but face risks in 2025 from oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty, while gold surged 27% this year, supported by monetary easing and safe-haven demand. Japan’s factory activity contracted at a slower pace in December, hinting at stabilization despite weak orders and rising input costs. Meanwhile, Ibiden, a key Nvidia supplier, plans to accelerate capacity expansion amid surging AI chip demand, signaling continued growth in the semiconductor sector. Investors should remain cautious in volatile markets, focus on diversification, and monitor policy shifts and demand trends heading into 2025.
Asian Stocks Drop Amid US Losses and Year-End Caution
Asian stocks slipped as US equities declined on Friday, and investors trimmed positions ahead of year-end. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell after a five-day rally, with shares in Japan and Australia dropping amid thin trading volumes. Treasury yields hovered near multi-month highs, adding pressure to equities, while the Australian dollar strengthened on higher iron ore prices. Despite Monday’s dip, Asian markets are set to close 2024 with a 7.5% gain, buoyed by easing monetary policies and AI-driven tech rallies.
Investment Insight
Year-end caution and thin trading volumes amplify stock market volatility. Investors should remain cautious with major decisions during this period, particularly in overvalued sectors like tech.
Oil Holds Steady as Traders Eye 2025 Risks
Oil prices remained stable in thin year-end trading, with West Texas Intermediate hovering near $71 a barrel and Brent above $74. Despite a 1.6% gain last week, crude is set to end 2024 with annual losses, constrained by ample supply and demand uncertainties. Key risks for 2025 include oversupply, OPEC+ production challenges, and policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump, who has hinted at tariffs on major oil producers and plans to intensify pressure on Iran. Concerns over Chinese demand and ongoing Middle East tensions also weigh on the market.
Investment Insight
Oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty may cap oil price growth in 2025. Investors should monitor policy shifts and demand signals closely before making energy sector bets. Volatility could provide opportunities for short-term trading, but long-term positions may carry elevated risk. Diversifying exposure within the energy sector, including renewable energy plays, could balance potential downside.

Gold Shines with 27% Gain in a Mixed Year for Metals
Gold is set for a standout 27% annual gain in 2024, driven by US monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and record central bank purchases. This surge defied traditional headwinds like a stronger US dollar and rising real Treasury yields, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. Meanwhile, base metals had a mixed year, with the LMEX Index posting modest gains, while iron ore dropped 28% amid China’s construction slowdown. Lithium extended its slump due to a global supply glut and challenges in the EV sector.
Investment Insight
Gold’s resilience in 2024 highlights its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors should consider gold as a hedge going into 2025, particularly if US monetary policy remains uncertain. Base metals may face continued pressure from weak Chinese demand, while oversupply in lithium could persist, challenging bullish positions.
Ibiden Plans Faster Expansion to Meet Soaring AI Chip Demand
Ibiden Co., a key supplier of advanced chip substrates for Nvidia’s AI semiconductors, is considering accelerating production capacity expansion to meet surging demand. The Japanese company’s new factory in Gifu, Japan, is set to reach partial production in late 2025, but clients, including Nvidia, Intel, and AMD, are already urging further investments. AI substrates now account for over 15% of Ibiden’s revenue, a figure expected to grow as Nvidia scales production of its next-generation Blackwell chips. Despite competition from Taiwanese rivals, analysts believe Ibiden’s dominance in high-quality substrate manufacturing is secure.
Investment Insight
The AI boom is driving strong demand for semiconductor components, positioning suppliers like Ibiden as key beneficiaries. Investors should watch for capacity expansion updates, as delays could hinder growth. Diversification beyond Intel and leveraging AI trends could strengthen Ibiden’s long-term outlook.
Market price: Ibiden Co Ltd. (TYO: 4062): USD JPY 4,766
Japan’s Factory Activity Shrinks at Slower Pace in December
Japan’s factory activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in December, but the pace of decline slowed, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.6 from November’s 49.0. Softer reductions in production and new orders drove the improvement, though new orders continued their 19-month contraction due to weak domestic and overseas demand, particularly in the semiconductor market. Employment rebounded to its highest level since April, while input costs surged on higher raw material prices, labour costs, and a weak yen. Despite challenges, manufacturers remained optimistic, citing new product launches and future demand growth.
Investment Insight
Japan’s manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, but weak demand and rising costs remain headwinds. Investors should monitor PMI trends and input price pressures, as sustained recovery depends on global demand revival and cost management. Export-driven sectors may face prolonged challenges tied to semiconductor weakness.
Conclusion
As 2024 wraps up, markets remain shaped by year-end caution, geopolitical uncertainties, and sector-specific challenges. Gold’s standout performance underscores its resilience as a safe-haven asset, while oil and base metals face pressure from oversupply and weak demand. The AI boom continues to drive growth opportunities for key suppliers like Ibiden, while Japan’s manufacturing sector shows tentative signs of stabilization. Looking ahead to 2025, investors should prepare for volatility, closely watch policy changes, and focus on diversified strategies to navigate risks and opportunities across sectors. Patience and careful positioning will be key in the evolving global market landscape.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- December 31, 2024: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
- January 1, 2025: US manufacturing PMI, Jobless claims
- January 2, 2025: US ISM manufacturing
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $350 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.
Daily Synopsis of the New York market close – Dec 24, 2024
Date Issued – 24th December 2024
Preview
Asian stocks climbed in quiet pre-holiday trading, lifted by a US tech rally and surging Honda shares
Honda shares jumped 14% on a $7 billion buyback plan. Taiwan Semiconductor hit record highs, but broader regional sentiment remains fragile as the MSCI Asia Index heads for its first quarterly loss since 2023 amid China’s weak recovery and global monetary concerns. Japan’s yen strengthened slightly on warnings against speculative moves, though risks of further depreciation linger ahead of key Bank of Japan events. In China, a stimulus-driven property stock rally faces challenges in 2025, with analysts forecasting declining sales and home prices due to persistent structural issues. Meanwhile, US chip stocks soared on AI optimism, with Broadcom and AMD leading gains, though elevated valuations warrant caution. Spotify also hit record highs, driven by strategic overhauls, cost-cutting, and improved margins, marking its first year of profitability. Investors remain focused on macro risks, earnings diversification, and selective opportunities in tech, FX, and property markets.
Asian Stocks Rise Amid US Tech Rally; Honda Soars on Buyback Plans
Asian markets gained in subdued pre-holiday trading, buoyed by a strong rally in US tech stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hit record highs, while Honda surged 14% after announcing a $7 billion share buyback. However, sentiment in Asia remains fragile, with the MSCI Asia Index heading for its first quarterly loss since 2023, driven by China’s weak recovery and global monetary concerns. Meanwhile, Japan’s yen strengthened slightly as officials warned of forex volatility, though risks of further depreciation remain.
Investment Insight
Tech continues to dominate market gains, but a broader earnings rally in 2025 could diversify opportunities. Honda’s buyback highlights potential value in underperforming sectors. Stay cautious on Asia as macro uncertainties persist.
Japan Warns Against Yen Speculation as Liquidity Thins
Japan reiterated its warnings against speculative yen movements as the currency remains under pressure ahead of key Bank of Japan (BOJ) events this week. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato signaled potential intervention, briefly strengthening the yen to 157.06 against the dollar. Analysts expect heightened tension if the yen nears 160, with low holiday market liquidity making intervention more impactful. The BOJ Governor’s speech on Wednesday and Friday’s policy meeting summary may influence further yen moves, especially as markets anticipate delayed rate hikes.
Investment Insight
The yen’s weakness reflects Japan’s prolonged ultra-easy monetary policy relative to US rates. Investors should monitor BOJ signals closely—any intervention or hawkish pivot could trigger sharp currency moves, presenting risks and opportunities in FX markets.
China’s Property Stock Rally Faces Tough 2025 Amid Weak Fundamentals
China’s property sector remains mired in a prolonged slump, with home prices and sales expected to decline further in 2025, despite a recent stimulus-fueled stock rally. Analysts forecast a 12% drop in sales and a single-digit decline in home prices next year. While state-owned developers like China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. are seen as better positioned, the broader sector continues to struggle with unfinished projects, default risks, and lackluster buyer confidence. Beijing’s piecemeal policy support has offered little lasting relief, raising concerns about the sustainability of any rebound.
Investment Insight
Focus on state-backed developers as consolidation accelerates and market share shifts. However, structural challenges and weak fundamentals suggest limited upside in the broader property market. Expect only tactical opportunities in a sector still under pressure.

Broadcom and AMD Lead Chip Rally on AI Growth Optimism
Chip stocks surged Monday, with Broadcom (+5.5%) and AMD (+4.5%) leading gains as analysts issued bullish calls driven by AI demand. UBS raised Broadcom’s price target to $270, citing significant AI revenue growth projections for 2026 and 2027. Rosenblatt named AMD a “top pick” for early 2025, highlighting its growing market share and AI-related potential. Other chipmakers, including Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Intel, also posted gains, pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 3%.
Investment Insight
AI demand remains a key driver for chipmakers, making industry leaders like Broadcom and AMD attractive picks. However, recent rallies suggest valuations may already reflect significant optimism. Look for near-term opportunities but exercise caution on overheated stocks.
Market price: Broadcom Inc (AVGO): USD 232.35
Spotify Hits Record Highs After Strategic Overhaul and Profitability Breakthrough
Spotify’s stock has soared to nearly $500, a sixfold increase from its 2022 low of under $80. The turnaround stems from aggressive cost-cutting, broad price hikes, and a shift in strategy that reduced podcast spending while focusing on bundles combining music, podcasts, and audiobooks. Layoffs, restructuring, and operational efficiency drove gross margins from 25% in 2022 to 31.1% in the latest quarter, with full-year profitability on track for the first time. Analysts remain bullish, with a median price target of $486.
Investment Insight
Spotify’s resurgence highlights the value of disciplined cost management and pricing power. While growth opportunities in audiobooks and bundles remain promising, sustained profitability will be key to justifying its lofty valuation.
Market price: Spotify Technology SA (SPOT): USD 456.29
Conclusion
Asian markets showed mixed signals as strong performances in tech and individual stocks like Honda contrasted with broader fragility tied to China’s slowdown and ongoing macroeconomic concerns. Japan’s yen volatility and the BOJ’s upcoming decisions add further uncertainty, while China’s property sector struggles to sustain momentum despite stimulus efforts. In contrast, US chipmakers and Spotify highlighted the potential of AI growth and strategic overhauls, though lofty valuations urge caution. Investors should remain selective, focusing on opportunities in resilient sectors like tech and state-backed developers while closely monitoring global monetary trends and China’s structural challenges heading into 2025.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- December 26th, 2024: US initial jobless claims
- December 27, 2024: Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, retail sales
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $400 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.

Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.