Date Issued – 14th November 2024
Preview
Asia shares wobbled on Thursday amid concerns over China’s economic outlook and rising U.S. bond yields. Chinese property market woes weighed on regional indexes, while longer-term Treasury yields climbed on mixed inflation signals and expectations of Trump’s return to the White House.
In other news, Japan’s yen faces depreciation pressures despite a record current-account surplus, Nippon Steel’s VP seeks U.S. steelworker support for a takeover bid, Zeekr plans to acquire a controlling stake in Lynk & Co, and an IMF study highlights widening wealth gaps between Europe and the U.S. due to cross-border challenges. Geely Automobile nearly doubled its profit on strong sales, with its stock significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index.
Asia Shares Wobble Amid China Concerns, U.S. Bond Yields Rise
Asian markets stumbled on Thursday, weighed down by weak Chinese stocks, as investors remain wary of the country’s economic outlook despite recent government support measures. Broader regional indexes followed suit, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropping 0.34% and Japan’s Nikkei slipping 0.14%, as Chinese property market woes persist.
In the U.S., longer-term Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield peaking at 4.483%, as markets digested mixed signals on inflation and the monetary policy impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Meanwhile, Bitcoin held steady above $90,000, continuing its recent surge on optimism about the pro-crypto stance of the incoming administration.
Despite rising bets of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, Trump’s plans for lower taxes and higher tariffs are expected to fuel inflation, limiting the Fed’s room to ease rates further in 2025.
Investment Insight: Investors should brace for increased volatility in global markets as U.S. fiscal policies under a Trump administration could push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path for rate cuts. In Asia, the ongoing struggles in China’s property sector remain a drag, potentially affecting regional growth.
Market price: Hang Seng Index: 19,435.81
Yen Weakens as Capital Outflows Overshadow Surplus
Japan’s yen continues to face depreciation pressures, driven by significant capital outflows despite a record current-account surplus of ¥8.97 trillion ($57.5 billion) in the third quarter. These outflows, particularly in direct and portfolio investments, are outpacing the surplus, limiting the yen’s potential gains. While Japan’s trade balance shows deficits, its primary income surplus—mostly investment returns—is reinvested abroad, further weakening the currency. With low domestic growth and limited foreign direct investment into Japan, the yen remains under strain, exacerbated by widening interest-rate differentials with the U.S.
Investment Insight: The yen’s persistent weakness signals limited domestic opportunities and increasing reliance on foreign investments. Investors should weigh the risks of currency depreciation against hedged holdings, especially with low growth prospects in Japan’s economy.
Market price: USD/JPY: 156.21
Market Updates
Nippon Steel’s VP to Meet U.S. Steelworkers Amid Takeover Uncertainty
Nippon Steel Corp.’s Vice President Takahiro Mori will meet with union representatives from U.S. Steel’s Pittsburgh plants next week, aiming to garner worker support for the company’s $14.1 billion takeover bid. Although President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to block the deal, Mori’s outreach signals an attempt to sway rank-and-file steelworkers, many of whom have shown support for the acquisition. The deal remains under review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS), and a final decision is expected by December.
Investment Insight: The pending takeover of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel could face headwinds from political opposition, but worker support may help push the deal forward. Investors should monitor regulatory decisions and union negotiations closely, as these factors will likely influence the deal’s outcome and future market dynamics in the steel industry.
Market price: Nippon Steel Corp. (5401.T): JPY 3,067.00
Zeekr to Take Control of Sister Brand Lynk in Strategic Move
Chinese electric vehicle maker Zeekr is set to acquire a controlling stake in Lynk & Co, a sister brand co-owned by Geely and Volvo Cars. According to sources, the deal will involve Zeekr purchasing Volvo’s 30% stake and a 20% stake from Geely Holding, valuing Lynk & Co at approximately 18 billion yuan ($2.5 billion). This move is part of Geely’s broader strategy to streamline operations and cut costs. The transaction will increase Zeekr’s stake to 51%, with finalization expected by June 2025.
Investment Insight: This consolidation effort by Geely could enhance operational efficiency and strengthen Zeekr’s position in the competitive EV market. Investors should monitor how this restructuring affects financial performance and market share, particularly in the fast-growing premium electric vehicle segment.
Market price: Volvocar (VOLCAR-B.ST): SEK 24.13
IMF Study: Cross-Border Challenges Widen Wealth Gap Between Europe and U.S.
A new IMF study reveals that cross-border challenges are widening the wealth gap between Europe and the U.S., with the EU’s GDP per capita now at just 72% of the U.S. level. The report attributes 70% of this gap to slower productivity growth in Europe, largely due to trade barriers between EU nations, which hinder firms from fully leveraging the bloc’s large market. Additionally, fragmented capital markets and limited labor mobility in Europe further constrain productivity. The IMF suggests that lowering trade barriers and improving capital flows could significantly boost European productivity.
Investment Insight: Investors should note the structural challenges facing European markets, particularly in sectors reliant on cross-border efficiency and capital. The slow progress on removing these barriers may continue to hamper Europe’s competitiveness, especially against the more unified U.S. market.
Market Price: Euro Stoxx 50 Index: EUR 4,798.34
Geely Automobile Nearly Doubles Profit on Strong Sales
Geely Automobile posted an impressive 92% surge in third-quarter net profit, reaching 2.46 billion yuan ($340.5 million), with revenue up 20% to 60.38 billion yuan. The Chinese automaker credited robust sales at home and abroad, along with a diversified product mix featuring brands like Zeekr and Lynk & Co., for its stellar performance. Geely’s stock has soared 64% this year, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. The China Passenger Car Association expects continued strong demand for Chinese electric vehicles through year-end, fueled by government incentives and competitive market conditions.
Investment Insight: Geely’s robust financial performance, driven by its diverse vehicle lineup and expanding EV presence, signals growth potential for investors. With government support for EVs and strong market momentum, Geely’s stock may continue to outperform, especially as it capitalizes on the global shift toward clean energy transportation.
Market Price: Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.: HKD 13.90
Conclusion
With U.S. fiscal policy changes and inflationary pressures, Asian markets are experiencing increased volatility. In Japan, the yen’s depreciation is a key issue for investors, while in the steel industry, regulatory approval remains critical for Nippon Steel’s takeover bid. Geely’s impressive earnings and strategic EV moves highlight growth potential in China’s auto market, while the IMF’s findings on Europe’s productivity underscore structural issues that may affect investment opportunities.
Upcoming Dates to Watch:
- November 15, 2024: Eurozone Q3 GDP report release
- November 20, 2024: U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes
- November 22, 2024: Japan National CPI release
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $400 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.