Date Issued – 5th December 2024
Preview
Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000 for the first time after President-elect Donald Trump nominated crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as SEC chair. This fueled a $1.3 trillion crypto market rally. Bitcoin ETFs have drawn $8 billion in inflows, despite Mt. Gox moving $2.4 billion in Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, gold forecasts rose sharply, with Macquarie predicting record highs of $3,000 an ounce by 2025 amid central bank buying and Federal Reserve rate cuts. In South Korea, political tensions escalate as the ruling party seeks to block President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, raising investor concerns.
Salesforce shares climbed after AI-driven results, though conservative Q4 guidance tempered optimism. Korea Zinc’s 270% year-to-date surge, driven by a looming proxy battle, has analysts warning of a sharp correction due to unsustainable valuations. Investors across markets are weighing opportunities against risks as volatility remains a key theme.
Bitcoin Tops $100,000 After Trump’s Pro-Crypto SEC Pick
President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly regulator, as the next SEC chair has propelled Bitcoin past the $100,000 mark for the first time. Bitcoin surged 6.1% to $103,801 on Thursday before stabilizing at $103,420 in Singapore. The broader crypto market has gained $1.3 trillion since Trump’s election, fueled by hopes for regulatory leniency and a national embrace of digital assets.
Analysts see this as a “momentum rally,” with Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $8 billion in inflows since the election. Meanwhile, the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange moved $2.4 billion in Bitcoin, but traders shrugged off potential concerns about a supply overhang. Other digital assets showed mixed performance, with Dogecoin rising and Ether steady.
Investment Insight
Bitcoin’s six-figure milestone signals growing institutional interest, but its speculative nature remains a risk. While regulatory tailwinds could drive further gains, investors should brace for volatility and avoid chasing the rally blindly.
Gold Bulls Gain Momentum as Macquarie Raises 2025 Forecasts
Macquarie Group has raised its gold price forecasts for 2025, predicting the metal could hit record highs as the Federal Reserve cuts rates and central banks continue stockpiling bullion. Analysts see potential for gold to “quickly challenge” $3,000 an ounce, especially if Chinese demand rises or if President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal policies weaken the US outlook.
While gold may face headwinds from a stronger dollar in early 2025, it’s expected to average $2,800 an ounce in the second quarter, up 12% from prior estimates. This year, gold has surged 28%, driven by central bank buying, a Fed pivot to rate cuts, and a rebound in ETF demand. Macquarie notes ETF holdings remain 25% below 2020 highs, leaving room for further accumulation if conditions favor gold.
Investment Insight
Gold remains a compelling hedge against economic uncertainty and lower interest rates. However, investors should monitor dollar strength and shifting central bank policies, as these could temper the metal’s rally in the long term.
South Korea’s Ruling Party Moves to Block Presidential Impeachment
South Korea’s People Power Party (PPP) is rallying to block an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol, which could be voted on as early as Saturday. PPP leader Han Dong-hoon urged party members to reject the motion, signaling efforts to distance the party from Yoon while maintaining conservative unity.
This comes after Yoon faced backlash for a short-lived martial law declaration on Tuesday, which was swiftly overturned by parliament. The opposition, accusing Yoon and his former defense chief Kim Yong-hyun of treason, needs a two-thirds majority (200 votes) to pass the motion—requiring support from some ruling party lawmakers. Yoon has remained silent as the political crisis unfolds.
Investment Insight
Political instability in South Korea could weigh on investor confidence, particularly in domestic equities and the won. However, markets may stabilize if the ruling party successfully blocks impeachment and restores political cohesion.
Salesforce Analysts Boost Price Targets After AI-Driven Results
Salesforce shares rallied as analysts raised their price targets following its fiscal Q3 report. The company posted $9.44 billion in revenue, beating estimates, but fell short on earnings per share ($2.41 vs. $2.44 expected). CEO Marc Benioff highlighted Salesforce’s AI platform, Agentforce, as a transformative tool for automating business processes, calling it the start of a “digital labor revolution.”
Despite strong early demand for Agentforce, Salesforce’s Q4 guidance ($9.9–$10.1 billion) fell slightly below Wall Street expectations. Wedbush raised its target to $425, citing AI growth potential, while other analysts noted steady—though unspectacular—revenue growth. Shares are up 37% YTD, with investors betting on Agentforce’s long-term impact despite near-term skepticism.
Investment Insight
Salesforce’s AI narrative is compelling, but current growth remains modest. Investors should weigh long-term AI-driven potential against near-term execution risks, particularly given conservative guidance. Avoid chasing the rally without clarity on sustained growth metrics.
Market price: Salesforce (CRM): USD 367.87
Korea Zinc Surges 270% Amid Proxy Battle, Analysts See Risks Ahead
Korea Zinc shares have soared nearly 270% year-to-date, making it the top performer on MSCI’s global equity index. The stock surged 12% on Thursday, driven by investor speculation ahead of a heated proxy battle between its largest shareholder, Young Poong Corp., and Chairman Yun B. Choi. The January 23 vote could determine control of the board, with each share potentially influencing the outcome.
Despite the rally, analysts warn the valuation is unsustainable, trading at nearly double the median among global peers. Bloomberg data predicts a potential 66% drop in the stock’s price within 12 months, though it still holds 14 buy ratings.
Investment Insight
Korea Zinc’s meteoric rise reflects speculative fervor tied to the proxy battle, not fundamentals. Investors should tread cautiously, as valuations suggest a high risk of sharp correction once the management dispute concludes.
Market price: Korea Zinc Inc (KRZ 010130): KRW 1,954,000.00
Conclusion
The week’s developments highlight the volatile mix of opportunity and risk across global markets. Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 reflects growing optimism toward crypto-friendly policies, while gold’s upward trajectory underscores its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
In South Korea, political instability adds caution to investor sentiment, as Salesforce’s AI-driven ambitions spark debate over near-term execution versus long-term potential. Korea Zinc’s meteoric rise serves as a stark reminder of speculative risks in overheated markets. As regulatory shifts, political turbulence, and technological innovation shape the landscape, investors must stay vigilant, balancing momentum-driven rallies with the potential for sharp corrections.
Upcoming Dates to Watch
- December 6, 2024: US Consumer Sentiment
- December 11, 2024: US CPI
Find below some of our Buy/Sell Recommendations. Balfour Capital Group is a distinguished global boutique investment management firm with $400 million AUM and over 1000 Clients.
Disclaimer: This post provides financial insights for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or recommendations for investment decisions.